The 2025 Home Run Derby features seven first-time participants, so it includes a bunch of fresh faces who should make this one of the most intriguing contests in recent years.
Matt Olson, a late replacement for Ronald Acuna Jr., is the one player with previous Derby experience, and he'll be competing in front of his home fans in Atlanta. Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh, the MLB home run leader with 36, will look to translate his in-game power to Derby success. James Wood, Junior Caminero and Oneil Cruz -- he of the hardest-hit home run of the season -- are three of the young sluggers in the contest.
Like last year, the bracket format has been scrapped in favor of three rounds: First round, semifinals and finals. In the first round, each player gets three minutes or 40 pitches (whichever comes first), to hit as many home runs as possible. There is also a bonus period that lasts until three non-home runs swings are recorded, with an extra out given if a player hits a 425-foot home run within the bonus period.
The top four totals advance to the semifinals (ties broken by the longest home run), which is conducted in knockout fashion. In the semis and finals, players will have two minutes or 27 swings, with ties broken by a 60-second swing-off.
Got it? Let's break the field down in order of betting odds.
Home Run Derby: Truist Park in Atlanta (Monday, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN)
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Cal Raleigh, Mariners (+260)
HRs: 38 | Long: 440 feet
Max exit velocity: 114.7 mph
Average launch angle: 24.8 degrees
Why he could win: It's the season of Cal! Raleigh had one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he has been crushing mistakes all season. His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby -- he ranks in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity and is a fly ball machine in game action. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest, as he's unlikely to get too amped up and tire himself out.
Why he might not: He's a catcher, and no catcher has ever won the Home Run Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez in 2005 reaching the finals. Raleigh has also played nearly every game, so even though he has spent some time at DH, you have to wonder how he might physically hold up through three potential rounds.
My prediction: Raleigh is the current betting favorite, which is a little surprising given the catcher history. The last two catchers to participate, Adley Rutschman in 2023 and Salvador Perez in 2021, actually performed quite well, although both lost their first-round matchups. Raleigh's swing does seem perfect for a BP session, and it's hard to look past what he's done in real games. I have him reaching the semifinals.
Oneil Cruz, OF, Pirates (+325)
HRs: 16 | Long: 463 feet
Max exit velocity: 122.9 mph
Average launch angle: 8.7 degrees
Why he could win: That 122.9 mph exit velocity? That was not only the hardest-hit home run of 2025, but the hardest-hit ball in the Statcast era. Cruz combines arguably the fastest bat in the game -- he's first in average bat speed -- with raw power to give him those incredible exit velo readings. Sure, he has trouble making contact in real games, but this isn't a real game.
Why he might not: His game swing is a little flat, so the concern would be in a rapid-fire BP session that he merely hits rocket line drives instead of rockets that go over the fence.
My prediction: This is what you look for in Home Run Derby contestant: big, strong, quick bat, capable of ruining baseballs. Being young and athletic doesn't hurt other. He's my pick to win it all.
James Wood, OF, Nationals (+400)
HRs: 24 | Long: 451 feet
Max exit velocity: 117.9 mph
Average launch angle: 5.9 degrees
Why he could win: Built along the lines of a skinnier Aaron Judge, the 22-year-old slugger ranks high in all the power-hitting Statcast metrics: Bat speed (96th percentile), average exit velo (97th percentile) and barrel rate (97th percentile). He's second only to Acuna in average home run distance at 411 feet, trails only Judge and Kyle Schwarber in 425-foot home runs and has easy power to all fields.
Why he might not: He has the lowest average launch angle of the eight hitters, so his natural swing isn't necessarily geared for a Home Run Derby. His game power is mostly to the opposite field -- left field and left-center -- but that could also work against him, as you want to be pulling the ball in a Home Run Derby and not lose some home runs on long fly balls to center field.
My prediction: It feels like Wood might have to make the most "adjustments" to his swing to maximize his output for this kind of contest. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see him win it all, but I have his day ending in the semifinals.
Matt Olson, 1B, Braves (7-1)
Appearance: Second (2021)
HRs: 17 | Long: 434 feet
Max exit velocity: 113.8 mph
Average launch angle: 14.4 degrees
Why he could win: Olson replaces teammate Ronald Acuna Jr. to give Braves fans a hometown player to root for. Olson hasn't replicated his monster 54-homer season from 2023, but he's been one of the game's best top power hitters for a long time now and ranks among MLB leaders in average exit velocity and barrel rate. The home-field advantage could be a big help. Think of that first round Julio Rodriguez had in Seattle in 2023, or Bryce Harper and Todd Frazier winning in front of the home fans in D.C. and Cincinnati, when the crowds seemed to will both to victory.
Why he might not: I'm looking at Olson's age (31) and viewing that as a negative.
My prediction: Again, it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see Olson win in front of the home fans, but I have him going out in the first round.
Brent Rooker, DH, Athletics (+850)
HRs: 20 | Long: 440
Max exit velocity: 112.4 mph
Average launch angle: 14.5 degrees
Why he could win: Rooker has sneaky power and is headed for his third straight 30-homer season. He's a dead-pull hitter (all his home runs have been to his pull side in left field), which is what you want. He really wanted to participate, and a player like that might do a little extra preparation and practice work to get ready.
Why he might not: He doesn't quite produce the max exit velocities or bat speed of most of the other guys here, so the raw power tools might be a little short to win it all.
My prediction: He's a fun guy to root for, given how he turned his career around after the A's claimed him on waivers from the Royals. Don't underestimate his chances, but I have him going out in the first round.
Byron Buxton, OF, Twins (+850)
HRs: 21 | Long: 479 feet
Max exit velocity: 112.5 mph
Average launch angle: 18.3 degrees
Why he could win: Buxton's raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter's in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. His bat speed remains elite at the 89th percentile and he delivers fly balls at the optimal home run launch angle, two tools that translate to long BP home runs.
Why he might not: The Home Run Derby is more of a young man's competition, and Buxton is 31 years old. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
My prediction: I do kind of like Buxton as a sleeper at these odds, but the age thing is hard to ignore. Because of that, I have Buxton failing to advance past the first round.
Junior Caminero, 3B, Rays (10-1)
HRs: 23 | Long: 425 feet
Max exit velocity: 116.5 mph
Average launch angle: 9.8 degrees
Why he could win: At just 21, Caminero is crushing home runs in his first full season in the majors. He trails only Cruz in the bat speed metric among all players, and he ranks in the top 15 in the majors in max exit velo. He does have all-fields power, spraying his home runs. All that could up to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: He does have a relatively low launch angle, so he might be the one hitter most likely to lapse into a series of hard-hit groundballs if he doesn't get into the right groove.
My prediction: Caminero is my sleeper pick. I have him advancing to the finals, where he falls to Cruz.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B, Yankees (12-1)
HRs: 17 | Long: 442
Max exit velocity: 110.9 mph
Average launch angle: 17.1 degrees
Why he could win: The favorite doesn't always win! Chisholm ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he's a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won't be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, so it's a difficult assignment asking him to beat bigger, more powerful hitters.
My prediction: One and done.