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UFC Fight Night: Expert picks and best bets for Lewis vs. Teixeira

Two-time UFC heavyweight championship challenger Derrick Lewis will be looking to re-enter the title picture when he takes on undefeated rising contender Tallison Teixeira in the main event of Saturday's UFC Fight Night from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee (9 p.m. ET, prelims at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+).

Lewis, who fought for an undisputed title at UFC 230 in November 2018 and an interim title at UFC 265 in August 2021, is making his first Octagon appearance of 2025. He beat Rodrigo Nascimento by third-round knockout in May 2024. Teixeira enters the fight following a first-round knockout of Justin Tafa at UFC 312 in February.

MMA analysts and former UFC fighters Anthony Smith and Din Thomas make their main event predictions. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the card's most intriguing bets.


Heavyweight main event

Lewis' experience is big in a fight like this. It's been a minute since he fought, but I think he fights better when he's able to take some time to think about how big these fights are. -- Din Thomas

Tallison is a stud, but he's not supremely tested. Tallison is tall, but Lewis has a weird ability to find the chin of these young, tall guys. Tallison is probably going to want to wrestle, but I feel like Derrick is actually really good at this anti-wrestling thing. -- Anthony Smith

Betting analysis

Odds accurate as of July 10. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Tallison to win (+225). Lewis, a fan favorite, is coming off a win last spring but has quite the tough challenge in front of him in the 25-year-old Teixeira. Lewis has more than 10 years of UFC experience and many multi-round bouts on his side, whereas Teixeira hasn't seen the second round in his eight-fight professional career. Will that matter? In the past, Lewis has packed it in and taken losses when he hasn't been able to tire out opponents quickly, and unfortunately for him, I see him on the wrong side of a knockout punch in this one. Teixeira is an exciting prospect and potentially a future UFC heavyweight contender. Either take his moneyline in your parlay or take him to win inside the distance.


Parker's best bets on the rest of the card

Welterweight: Stephen Thompson vs. Gabriel Bonfim

Bonfim to win inside the distance. After consecutive losses by finish in December 2023 and October 2024, Thompson takes on another up-and-coming finisher in Bonfim. On the feet, Thompson's distance striking and lateral movement will help him avoid the power of Bonfim, but for how long? At some point, Bonfim will get Thompson to the ground and implement his world-class jiu-jitsu. "Wonderboy," a 13-year UFC veteran with losses in four of his past five fights, deserves credit for taking this fight at this point in his career, but Bonfim is a bad matchup for him. I expect Bonfim to shine brightly.

Featherweight: Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia

Garcia to win (-125). Garcia, riding a streak of five straight wins by finish, will be looking to add Kattar to his résumé. Garcia is a tough out for anyone because of his knockout power and durability to match. He also can use his underrated ground game if needed. Kattar is a good fighter, but he has lost four in a row. Unless he can tire out Garcia with a wrestling game that he rarely uses, I don't see a path to victory for Kattar. Look for Garcia to continue his impressive run.

Light heavyweight: Junior Tafa vs Tuco Tokkos

Tafa to win (-175). Plain and simple: If Tokkos cannot take down Tafa and hold him down for 15 minutes, Tokkos will get knocked out. Tokkos has lost his past two fights, and though Tafa is new to the light heavyweight division, he has knockout power that lasts an entire fight. Expect Tafa to come out of the gate looking for the finish, and I think he'll get it.