Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
The long ball remains an issue for Logan Allen, but he's pitched well lately. Over his first 12 appearances, Allen posted a 5.2% K-BB% with a 5.15 xFIP. In his last five efforts, the lefty's K-BB% is 13.9% with a 3.82 xFIP. If home runs continue to be a problem, Allen's ERA will exceed the estimators, so he's best utilized when facing less powerful lineups. Thursday is a great example with the Cleveland Guardians visiting the Chicago White Sox. Allen faces a lineup with below average power, sporting the third highest strikeout rate facing left-handers.
Eduardo Rodriguez posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in five June starts, fanning 28 in 27 1/3 innings. His first start this month was a disaster, yielding eight earned runs in only 4 1/3 innings, though he managed to punch out seven Kansas City Royals along the way. The lefty isn't likely to rack up a bunch of punchouts when the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the San Diego Padres, but he'll face a lineup with a below average wOBA versus lefties.
Gopheritis masks Michael Soroka's best season since 2019 when he was one of the fledgling aces. His 26.2% strikeout rate is his career best while his 6.4% walk rate is his lowest in six years. Soroka's 19.9% K-BB% would rank 19th among qualified starters, but he hasn't compiled ample innings to make the list. The Washington Nationals are in Busch Stadium for a road date with the St. Louis Cardinals. Soroka's home run issues are aided by facing a lineup with below average power in a venue that helps keep the ball in the yard.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
Only three of the 20 starting pitchers on the docket are rostered in at least half of ESPN leagues, and there is no reason to avoid them. The next closest is Taj Bradley with 40% rostership. Perhaps this is obvious, but Bradley is a huge risk when the Tampa Bay Rays open a critical four-game series in Fenway Park. The Boston Red Sox are countering with Walker Buehler, so it may be tempting to use Bradley to try to escape with a win. The problem is over his past six outings, Bradley posted a 7.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP spanning 27 frames, and that includes 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Royals. It's best to resist temptation.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Aside from all available batters in the Red Sox versus Rays affair, there is another group of AL East batters in a favorable spot. The Baltimore Orioles welcome the New York Mets to Camden Yards for the finale of a midweek interleague set with Justin Hagenman on the hill for the visitors. The righty has 10 strikeouts with no walks in 10 1/3 major league innings this season, but he's also surrendered three homers, and that's on top of 11 homers allowed in just 42 stanzas with Triple-A Syracuse. Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Colton Cowser, Tyler O'Neill and Ramon Laureano all have the pop to take advantage of the vulnerable right-hander.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.