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Pitchers to stream on Thursday
The long ball remains an issue for Logan Allen, but he has pitched well lately. Over his first 12 appearances, Allen posted a 5.2% K-BB% with a 5.15 xFIP. In his last five efforts, the lefty's K-BB% is 13.9% with a 3.82 xFIP. If home runs continue to be a problem, Allen's ERA will exceed the estimators, so he's best utilized when facing less powerful lineups. Thursday is a great example, with the Cleveland Guardians visiting the Chicago White Sox. Allen faces a lineup with below-average power, sporting the third-highest strikeout rate facing left-handers.
Eduardo Rodriguez posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in five June starts, fanning 28 in 27 1/3 innings. His first start this month was a disaster, yielding eight earned runs in only 4 1/3 innings, though he managed to punch out seven Kansas City Royals along the way. The lefty isn't likely to rack up a bunch of strikeouts when the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the San Diego Padres, but he'll face a lineup with a below-average wOBA versus lefties.
Gopheritis masks Michael Soroka's best season since 2019 when he was one of the fledgling aces. His 26.2% strikeout rate is his career best, while his 6.4% walk rate is his lowest in six years. Soroka's 19.9% K-BB% would rank 19th among qualified starters, but he hasn't compiled ample innings to make the list. The Washington Nationals visit Busch Stadium for a road date with the St. Louis Cardinals. Soroka's home run issues are aided by facing a lineup with below-average power in a venue that helps keep the ball in the yard.
Pitchers to avoid on Thursday
Taj Bradley, with near 40% rostership, is a huge risk when the Tampa Bay Rays open a critical four-game series in Fenway Park. The Boston Red Sox are countering with Walker Buehler, so it may be tempting to use Bradley to try to escape with a win. The problem is that over his past six outings, Bradley has posted a 7.00 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP spanning 27 frames -- and that includes 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Royals. It's best to resist temptation.
Today's best matchups for pitchers
Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.12 ERA in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.15 ERA in this matchup.
Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.17 ERA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for pitchers
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.40 ERA in this matchup.
Athletics pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.36 ERA in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.35 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Thursday
Aside from all available batters in the Red Sox versus Rays affair, there is another group of AL East batters in a favorable spot. The Baltimore Orioles welcome the New York Mets to Camden Yards for the finale of a midweek interleague set with Justin Hagenman on the hill for the visitors. The righty has 10 strikeouts with no walks in 10 1/3 major league innings this season, but he's also surrendered three homers, and that's on top of 11 homers allowed in just 42 stanzas with Triple-A Syracuse. Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Cedric Mullins, Ryan O'Hearn, Colton Cowser, Tyler O'Neill and Ramon Laureano all have the pop to take advantage of the vulnerable right-hander.
Today's best matchups for hitters
Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Mets pitchers (Game 2)
SP: A+ | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .360 wOBA in this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds RHB vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .358 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .354 wOBA in this matchup.
Today's worst matchups for hitters
New York Yankees RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: A | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .307 wOBA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres RHB vs. Diamondbacks pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: F | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .308 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Today's top HR prop bets
Byron Buxton | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 25% chance of this bet hitting, with a $53.31 EV
One reason to bet this: Buxton has strong power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but thats usually a big "if" (27.1 K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea is a pitch-to-contact type (23rd percentile K%). That's great news for Buxton.
Taylor Ward | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.57 EV
One reason to bet this: Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all MLB stadiums.
Ramon Laureano | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.13 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system shows Oriole Park at Camden Yards to be the eighth-best venue in MLB for RHB home runs.
Today's top pitcher prop bets
Michael Soroka | UNDER 4.5 K (-110)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.37 EV
One reason to bet this: Adrian Johnson, expected to be behind the plate in this game, profiles as a huge "hitter's umpire."
Bryan Woo | UNDER 5.5 K (+115)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.42 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 9 field in MLB for suppressing strikeouts, per my projections, is Yankee Stadium.
Cal Quantrill | UNDER 3.5 K (+125)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Quantrill's fastball spin rate of 2,140 rpm ranks only in the 16th percentile this year among starters.
Today's top YRFI/NRFI bet
Mets @ Orioles (Game 1) | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 63% chance of RUN with a $13.36 EV