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Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Thursday

Logan Allen has a chance to help the Guardians get on track against the White Sox. Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.


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Pitchers to stream on Thursday

  • The long ball remains an issue for Logan Allen, but he has pitched well lately. Over his first 12 appearances, Allen posted a 5.2% K-BB% with a 5.15 xFIP. In his last five efforts, the lefty's K-BB% is 13.9% with a 3.82 xFIP. If home runs continue to be a problem, Allen's ERA will exceed the estimators, so he's best utilized when facing less powerful lineups. Thursday is a great example, with the Cleveland Guardians visiting the Chicago White Sox. Allen faces a lineup with below-average power, sporting the third-highest strikeout rate facing left-handers.

  • Eduardo Rodriguez posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in five June starts, fanning 28 in 27 1/3 innings. His first start this month was a disaster, yielding eight earned runs in only 4 1/3 innings, though he managed to punch out seven Kansas City Royals along the way. The lefty isn't likely to rack up a bunch of strikeouts when the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the San Diego Padres, but he'll face a lineup with a below-average wOBA versus lefties.

  • Gopheritis masks Michael Soroka's best season since 2019 when he was one of the fledgling aces. His 26.2% strikeout rate is his career best, while his 6.4% walk rate is his lowest in six years. Soroka's 19.9% K-BB% would rank 19th among qualified starters, but he hasn't compiled ample innings to make the list. The Washington Nationals visit Busch Stadium for a road date with the St. Louis Cardinals. Soroka's home run issues are aided by facing a lineup with below-average power in a venue that helps keep the ball in the yard.

Pitchers to avoid on Thursday

  • Taj Bradley, with near 40% rostership, is a huge risk when the Tampa Bay Rays open a critical four-game series in Fenway Park. The Boston Red Sox are countering with Walker Buehler, so it may be tempting to use Bradley to try to escape with a win. The problem is that over his past six outings, Bradley has posted a 7.00 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP spanning 27 frames -- and that includes 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Royals. It's best to resist temptation.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Cleveland Guardians pitchers vs. White Sox hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: B | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.12 ERA in this matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.15 ERA in this matchup.

Chicago White Sox pitchers vs. Guardians hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: B | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.17 ERA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.40 ERA in this matchup.

Athletics pitchers vs. Braves hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: F | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.36 ERA in this matchup.

Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.35 ERA in this matchup.


Hitters to stream on Thursday

Today's best matchups for hitters

Baltimore Orioles LHB vs. Mets pitchers (Game 2)
SP: A+ | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .360 wOBA in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds RHB vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .358 wOBA in this matchup.

Minnesota Twins LHB vs. Cubs pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .354 wOBA in this matchup.

Today's worst matchups for hitters

New York Yankees RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: A | Framing: F | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .272 wOBA in this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays RHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: D | Park: A | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: D | Away
The average hitter would post a .307 wOBA in this matchup.

San Diego Padres RHB vs. Diamondbacks pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: B | Park: C | Umpire: F | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .308 wOBA in this matchup.


Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Byron Buxton | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 25% chance of this bet hitting, with a $53.31 EV
One reason to bet this: Buxton has strong power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but thats usually a big "if" (27.1 K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea is a pitch-to-contact type (23rd percentile K%). That's great news for Buxton.

Taylor Ward | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.57 EV
One reason to bet this: Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all MLB stadiums.

Ramon Laureano | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.13 EV
One reason to bet this: My projection system shows Oriole Park at Camden Yards to be the eighth-best venue in MLB for RHB home runs.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Michael Soroka | UNDER 4.5 K (-110)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.37 EV
One reason to bet this: Adrian Johnson, expected to be behind the plate in this game, profiles as a huge "hitter's umpire."

Bryan Woo | UNDER 5.5 K (+115)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.42 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 9 field in MLB for suppressing strikeouts, per my projections, is Yankee Stadium.

Cal Quantrill | UNDER 3.5 K (+125)
Projection: 50% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Quantrill's fastball spin rate of 2,140 rpm ranks only in the 16th percentile this year among starters.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bet

Mets @ Orioles (Game 1) | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 63% chance of RUN with a $13.36 EV