Fantasy baseball lineup advice, betting tips for Tuesday

ESPN Fantasy

Sep 15, 2025, 03:11 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
14.8	Chris Sale	L	@WSH, Gm. 2	95.8%	63%	6.0	2.2	7.4
13.9	Paul Skenes	R	CHC	99.8%	57%	5.8	1.9	6.3
13.3	Michael King	R	@NYM	83.8%	56%	5.7	1.9	6.2
12.6	Cristopher Sanchez	L	@LAD	96.7%	60%	6.0	2.2	5.6
12.0	Merrill Kelly	R	@HOU	82.0%	56%	5.9	2.4	5.7
11.2	Freddy Peralta	R	LAA	97.1%	62%	5.4	2.5	6.4
10.6	Logan Gilbert	R	@KC	96.0%	57%	5.6	2.7	5.7
10.5	Andrew Abbott	L	@STL	70.5%	46%	5.8	2.3	4.9
10.5	Shane Smith	R	BAL	11.2%	57%	5.2	2.1	5.3
9.9	Michael McGreevy	R	CIN	4.1%	54%	5.8	2.5	4.2
9.6	Cade Horton	R	@PIT	46.6%	43%	5.1	2.1	4.8
9.5	Ryan Pepiot	R	TOR	52.6%	50%	5.2	2.3	4.8
9.5	Clay Holmes	R	SD	47.2%	44%	5.3	2.0	4.5
9.2	Cristian Javier	R	TEX	6.1%	44%	4.8	1.9	4.8
8.5	Cam Schlittler	R	@MIN	27.0%	60%	5.0	2.5	5.4
8.5	Tyler Wells	R	@CWS	13.1%	43%	5.1	2.5	4.8
8.3	Jose Berrios	R	@TB	63.7%	50%	5.5	2.8	4.7
7.5	Casey Mize	R	CLE	46.9%	51%	5.1	2.7	4.6
7.5	MacKenzie Gore	L	ATL, Gm. 2	60.6%	37%	5.3	3.0	5.5
7.4	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	SF	5.4%	54%	5.3	3.0	5.1
6.8	Michael Wacha	R	SEA	21.5%	43%	5.3	3.1	4.7
6.4	Jake Irvin	R	ATL, Gm. 1	8.2%	59%	5.3	3.3	4.3
6.2	Zebby Matthews	R	NYY	3.3%	40%	4.9	3.1	5.2
5.7	Connelly Early	L	ATH	0.0%	49%	4.9	3.4	5.2
5.5	Shohei Ohtani	R	PHI	99.9%	40%	3.2	1.5	3.5
5.4	Jeffrey Springs	L	@BOS	13.7%	51%	5.1	3.4	4.6
5.1	Caden Dana	R	@MIL	0.2%	38%	4.5	2.7	4.3
5.0	Joey Cantillo	L	@DET	3.3%	49%	4.6	3.0	5.1
2.5	Carson Seymour	R	@ARI	0.1%	46%	3.3	2.3	3.0
2.2	Eury Perez	R	@COL	19.5%	54%	4.4	4.3	4.6
	TBD		@WSH, Gm. 1	0.0%	41%	0.0	0.0	0.0
-0.5	Kyle Freeland	L	MIA	1.2%	46%	4.8	5.4	4.3

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

Despite a couple of second half hiccups, Shane Smith sports a 2.84 ERA and 0.95 WHIP since the break, fanning a respectable 122 over those 131 innings. Most Rule 5 pitchers spend the season in the bullpen, assuming they're not returned to their original team. Smith has a chance to start 29 games. His 27th is a home start against the Baltimore Orioles. Injuries and disappointing batters have the Orioles watching the rest of the AL East vie for a playoff berth. The White Sox are also playing out the string, but that hasn't stopped Smith as he's 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.71 WHIP over the last four efforts.
With three straight wins, Eduardo Rodriguez is helping to keep the Arizona Diamondbacks within striking distance of the third NL wild card. He begins the penultimate week of the regular season with a key home matchup against the San Francisco Giants. The Giants are half a game ahead of the Diamondbacks while sitting a game and a half behind the New York Mets for the last wild card. Rodriguez has a 0.49 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last three outings, all quality starts. The Giants sport the league's lowest wOBA facing left-handers.
Cade Horton is the betting favorite for NL Rookie of the year. He's made his case with a 7-1 record, posting a 0.94 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 42 strikeouts over his last nine games, spanning 47 2/3 stanzas. He has a great matchup to stay on a second half roll when the Chicago Cubs visit the Pittsburgh Pirates. Horton faces the lowest scoring team in the league.

Pitchers to avoid on Tuesday

The Mets are going to use Clay Holmes and Sean Manaea in tandem on Tuesday, and perhaps the rest of the season. While it may benefit Holmes' ratios, he isn't likely to manage any more than four innings, limiting strikeouts while eliminating the chance for a win. In fact, Manaea is a more favorable option since he'll be in play for the victory coming in as a multi-inning reliever. That said, neither is recommended when the Mets welcome the San Diego Padres to Citi Field.

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

The first of two scheduled doubleheaders this week takes place in Nationals Park with the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals hooking up for a pair. The caveat is each team will likely start a righty in one game, and a lefty in the other, so identifying players with a chance to appear in both games is tricky. That said, Jake Irvin is slated to handle one contest for the Nationals, so targeting left-handed Braves generates a favorable matchup, with a chance to appear in the other game. Jurickson Profar, Michael Harris II, Ha-Seong Kim and Marcell Ozuna are the main options.
With the warning that they may have to face Chris Sale, the Nationals best streaming candidates are Daylen Lile, Dylan Crews and Brady House.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.