Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Wednesday

ESPN Fantasy

Jul 9, 2025, 07:04 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart | Start a new league

STARTING PITCHERS FOR WEDNESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
12.8	Dylan Cease	R	ARI	93.4%	-150	7.5	62%	5.9	2.2	6.3
12.6	Brandon Walter	L	CLE	11.6%	-145	7.5	53%	6.0	2.2	5.8
11.5	David Peterson	L	@BAL	48.7%	-155	9.5	59%	5.9	2.6	5.9
11.2	Tyler Glasnow	R	@MIL	79.9%	-165	8.5	54%	5.0	2.0	5.7
11.0	Jesus Luzardo	L	@SF	67.3%	-130	8.5	53%	5.6	2.4	6.0
9.9	MacKenzie Gore	L	@STL	90.9%	-105	8.5	44%	5.6	2.4	5.6
9.7	Brandon Pfaadt	R	@SD	58.5%	+125	7.5	38%	5.6	2.5	5.2
9.3	Kris Bubic	L	PIT	94.7%	-190	8.5	55%	5.7	3.0	5.7
9.1	Adrian Houser	R	TOR	22.2%	+130	8.5	60%	5.5	2.5	4.3
9.1	Andrew Abbott	L	MIA	79.3%	-145	8.5	54%	5.6	2.9	5.3
8.9	Andre Pallante	R	WSH	8.9%	-115	8.5	56%	5.4	2.3	4.3
8.6	Reese Olson	R	TB	31.5%	-155	8.5	51%	5.3	2.5	4.7
8.6	Slade Cecconi	R	@HOU	4.6%	+120	7.5	47%	5.0	2.3	4.7
8.5	Logan Evans	R	@NYY	1.3%	+135	9.5	57%	5.4	2.8	5.1
8.4	Sandy Alcantara	R	@CIN	40.3%	+120	8.5	46%	5.7	3.2	5.5
8.4	Justin Verlander	R	PHI	8.2%	+110	8.5	47%	5.5	2.7	4.8
8.3	Zack Littell	R	@DET	37.9%	+130	8.5	49%	5.4	2.9	4.6
8.2	Cade Horton	R	@MIN	6.9%	-115	9.5	45%	5.3	2.7	5.1
7.4	Kumar Rocker	R	@LAA	5.6%	-130	8.5	61%	4.7	2.6	4.7
7.2	Cameron Schlittler	R	SEA	2.9%	-160	9.5	43%	4.7	2.4	4.6
7.2	David Festa	R	CHC	1.5%	-105	9.5	55%	4.6	2.6	5.1
7.0	Jose Quintana	L	LAD	9.8%	+140	8.5	46%	5.6	3.1	4.4
7.0	Lucas Giolito	R	COL	42.0%	-300	9.5	63%	5.4	3.6	5.7
6.2	Mitch Spence	R	ATL	1.1%	+105	10.5	51%	5.1	3.0	4.4
5.8	Bryce Elder	R	@ATH	2.3%	-125	10.5	49%	5.2	3.5	5.0
5.1	Eric Lauer	L	@CWS	12.9%	-155	8.5	40%	4.5	3.0	4.8
4.6	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	NYM	8.4%	+130	9.5	41%	5.2	3.6	4.0
4.5	Kyle Hendricks	R	TEX	2.5%	+110	8.5	39%	5.1	3.4	3.8
4.5	Bailey Falter	L	@KC	6.4%	+160	8.5	45%	4.7	2.9	3.3
0.1	Antonio Senzatela	R	@BOS	0.2%	+240	9.5	37%	4.8	4.4	3.6

Pitchers to stream on Wednesday

Two years ago, it was Ronel Blanco. Last season, it was Spencer Arrighetti. For the past few summers, someone emerged from obscurity to be a key member of the Houston Astros rotation. This year's candidates are Ryan Gusto, Colton Gordon and Wednesday's starter, Brandon Walter. Even though he has struggled in two of his last three outings, Walter is the best of the trio, owning the top expected ERA and K-BB% of the group. A home matchup against the Cleveland Guardians gives Walter a great chance to head into the break with some momentum. He's facing an offense that averages the fifth-fewest runs per game and has an above-average strikeout rate.
Following a complete-game shutout June 11, David Peterson's rostership climbed over the 50% level. However, a 7.47 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over his next three outings sent him to the waiver wire, rendering him available in more than half of ESPN leagues once again. Last time out, Peterson rebounded with a quality start, allowing just two runs in 6 2/3 innings to the Milwaukee Brewers. The lefty's final start before the break is a road date against a Baltimore Orioles lineup with the fourth-worst wOBA and sixth-highest strikeout rate facing southpaws.
Lucas Giolito has emerged as the second-best starter for the Boston Red Sox behind Garrett Crochet. Since being crushed for seven runs in 1 2/3 innings in mid-June, Giolito posted five straight quality starts, registering a 0.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with 31 punchouts over those 32 2/3 stanzas. Giolito draws the Colorado Rockies at Fenway Park to close out the pre-break portion of the schedule. The Rockies sport the second-lowest road wOBA versus right-handers. Giolito tossed 213 total pitches over his prior two efforts, which is a concern, but with over a week before he takes the hill again, he should be unrestricted in terms of pitch count.

Pitchers to avoid on Wednesday

The numbers for pitchers returning from a long layoff suggest playing it safe for at least one start. Tyler Glasnow is slated to return from the 15-day IL after missing over two months with shoulder inflammation. He logged three rehab outings for Triple-A Oklahoma City, throwing 78 pitches over 4 2/3 innings in his last. Even though he can add a handful more in his debut, the Los Angeles Dodgers aren't likely to push him, with the goal being to have the ace right-hander at full strength for the playoffs. Avoiding a pitcher with Glasnow's upside is risky, but after recording an 8.31 ERA and 2.08 in his 8 2/3 rehab innings, waiting until after the break to deploy Glasnow is defensible.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Wednesday

Since sporting a season-low 4.08 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in early June, Bryce Elder has recorded a 12.64 ERA and 2.81 WHIP over four outings spanning 15 2/3 innings. Unfortunately for the Atlanta Braves, they have no other options, so Elder will take the hill in Sacramento against the Athletics. Nick Kurtz, Max Muncy, Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler, Shea Langeliers and Denzel Clarke are all in play for an evening affair with game-time temperatures forecast to start around 90 degrees.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Brooks Baldwin | OVER 0.5 HR (+900)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $33.70 EV
One reason to bet this: Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the No. 4 park in baseball for righty home runs, per my projections.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr | OVER 0.5 HR (+525)
Projection: 18% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Guerrero has a 79th-percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's ninth-shallowest RF fences today.

Colton Cowser | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.04 EV
One reason to bet this: High humidity has a small, yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks). The weather report calls for the second-highest humidity on the slate today at 77%.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Jesus Luzardo | UNDER 5.5 K (+110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.85 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 10.4 mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for hitters.

Brandon Walter | UNDER 4.5 K (-110)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.16 EV
One reason to bet this: Walter has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching an 8.57 K/9 despite my projections estimating his true talent level to be 7.67 -- a 0.90 K/9 disparity.

Logan Evans | UNDER 3.5 K (+105)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.12 EV
One reason to bet this: Mark Ripperger projects out as a "hitter's umpire" and is anticipated to be behind the plate in today's game.

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bet

Mariners @ Yankees | YRFI (-135)
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $0.92 EV