Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Friday
Take away April and Edward Cabrera has a 2.11 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 25.3% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate. Next up is a road date against the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles first half struggles are more about pitching than hitting as their offense has been around league average, though they strike out at an above average clip.
No one tabbed Ryne Nelson as the Arizona Diamondbacks' best pitcher through the All-Star break, but with one start remaining before the four-day respite, Nelson checks in with a 3.39 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He's been aided by a .230 BABIP and 8.3% home run per fly ball mark, but he's also been victimized by a 69.5% left on base level. The Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Angels open an interleague set in Anaheim, matching Nelson with a below average offense with the second highest strikeout rate facing right-handers.
Gavin Williams' first half has been uneven, but he's coming off one of his better efforts, tossing six scoreless frames against the Detroit Tigers, including eight punchouts. With the Cleveland Guardians visiting the Chicago White Sox, Williams is in a great spot to carry the momentum through the break as he'll face the offense with the lowest wOBA with a righty on the hill.
Pitchers to avoid on Friday
Since June 1, the Boston Red Sox lead the league with 5.8 runs per game, more than half a run greater than the Toronto Blue Jays in second place. It's not a bad idea to avoid any opposing starter, especially in Fenway Park. On Friday, Drew Rasmussen will start for the Tampa Bay Rays. While it may be tempting to trust his 2.82 ERA to silence the Red Sox bats, the Rays have reported that Rasmussen will be under a pitch count, with Joe Boyle piggybacking the outing. The club indicated this will be the plan for the foreseeable future. In many instances, this adds to Boyle's allure, but not this effort.
Hitters to stream on Friday
Mitchell Parker has been providing innings for the Washington Nationals, but he's struggled in his last three starts, yielding 10 earned runs and 15 hits over 17 stanzas. He fanned only eight in that span. The southpaw particularly struggled facing left-handed batters, but in a small sample it's best to rely on history and focus on opposing right-handed swingers. As such, the spotlight is on the Milwaukee Brewers' righty-swinging contingent featuring Isaac Collins, Caleb Durbin, Andrew Vaughn and Joey Ortiz.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.