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Pitchers to stream on Saturday
Brady Singer's walk rate is pacing towards a career-high while his strikeout rate is down. He's keeping the ball in the yard, despite morphing into a fly-ball pitcher in the Great American Ballpark. Truth be told, putting the Cincinnati Reds righty under the microscope for his final start heading into the break isn't necessary. The only thing pertinent is a home date with the Colorado Rockies and the lineup with the highest road strikeout rate when facing right-handers, fueling the second-lowest road wOBA.
Jacob Lopez heads into the break in a rut, but he has a chance to get out of it with a home start against the Toronto Blue Jays. It won't be easy, as the Blue Jays sport the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league with a lefty on the hill, but their offense overall is below average. To his credit, the Athletics southpaw has punched out 47 over his last 35 frames.
Emmet Sheehan is earmarked for bulk pitcher duties, with Shohei Ohtani starting the NL West tilt between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Sheehan gets to come in and face the lower portion of the Giants lineup and he doesn't need to compile five innings to qualify for the win. Over his two appearances so far, Sheehan has tossed nine innings with 10 punchouts and just one walk.
Saturday's best matchups for pitchers
Baltimore Orioles pitchers vs. Miami Marlins hitters
Offense: A | Park: D | Umpire: B | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.92 ERA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Houston Astros hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 3.99 ERA in this matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Washington Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: D | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 4.04 ERA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for pitchers
Chicago Cubs pitchers vs. New York Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: D | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.24 ERA in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays pitchers vs. Boston Red Sox hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: F | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.18 ERA in this matchup.
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Cincinnati Reds hitters
Offense: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.07 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Saturday
Avoiding base stealers facing the Kansas City Royals has been a common theme over the first half. The club has surrendered the fewest pilfers while catching the highest percentage of runners. However, there is one Royals pitcher to target. Michael Lorenzen has been on the hill for six of the 20 steals allowed by Kansas City. If Brandon Nimmo or Tyrone Taylor are in the New York Mets lineup, don't be scared off by the concern about opportunities to steal.
Hitters to avoid on Saturday
In an odd twist, the team to avoid for stolen bases this weekend is the Royals. The Mets are the second-best team at defending the run game. Be wary of Maikel Garcia, even though he's second on the Royals with 18 swipes.
Saturday's best matchups for hitters
Cincinnati Reds batters vs. Colorado Rockies pitchers
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .365 wOBA in this matchup.
Rockies LHB vs. Reds pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: A | Umpire: C | Framing: C | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals LHB vs. New York Mets pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .347 wOBA in this matchup.
Saturday's worst matchups for hitters
Astros RHB vs. Texas Rangers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: F | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .273 wOBA in this matchup.
San Diego Padres RHB vs. Philadelphia Phillies pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .274 wOBA in this matchup.
Rangers RHB vs. Houston Astros pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Umpire: F | Framing: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .282 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Saturday's top home run prop bets
Henry Davis | OVER 0.5 HR (+1000)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.22 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to right field at 11.5-mph in this contest, the second-most-favorable of the day for batters.
Julio Rodriguez | OVER 0.5 HR (+700)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.56 EV
One reason to bet this: As far as temperature and humidity go, the second-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.
Saturday's top pitcher prop bets
Tanner Bibee | UNDER 5.5 K (-130)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.57 EV
One reason to bet this: Tanner Bibee's 2247-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a substantial 114-rpm decrease from last year's 2361-rpm mark.
Shane Baz | UNDER 2.5 ER (+110)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.02 EV
One reason to bet this: The projected offense for the Red Sox has an estimated true talent wOBA of .317, which is worse than their actual wOBA of .329 this year.
Mike Burrows | UNDER 4.5 K (+115)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.33 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 11.5-mph in this contest, the second-most-favorable of the day for batters.
Saturday's Top YRFI/NRFI Bets
D-Backs @ Angels | YRFI (-105)
Projection: 52% chance of RUN with a $1.15 EV