Everything you're about to read can change in a cough.
That's the reality of the 2021 NHL season, which is being played inside (mostly) empty arenas during the COVID-19 pandemic. The league released the names of 27 players who began the season with a "COVID Protocol Related Absence," and that's not including the 17 members of the Dallas Stars who tested positive.
There are going to be players who suddenly disappear from lineups. There are going to be games that are rescheduled to dates later in the season. The NHL has structured this season to be as safe as possible while accommodating the shared desires of owners and players not to reenter the bubble, but everybody understands the unpredictability that comes with it.
So, with that established, here are my predictions for the 2021 season. Enjoy!
MassMutual NHL East Division
1. Washington Capitals (Full preview)
2. Philadelphia Flyers (Full preview)
3. Pittsburgh Penguins (Full preview)
4. Boston Bruins (Full preview)
5. New York Islanders (Full preview)
6. New York Rangers (Full preview)
7. Buffalo Sabres (Full preview)
8. New Jersey Devils (Full preview)
There might not be a more underappreciated team achievement in the NHL than the Capitals' run of five straight division titles. In the past 13 seasons of Alex Ovechkin, the Capitals have won their division 10 times. It's what they do. Yet despite this, Peter Laviolette is going to win the Jack Adams because he'll have them "playing harder than they did in the bubble" or some nonsense, but mostly because he's one of the few new head coaches this season and that's how the award works. The key to this prediction: That a deep and revamped defense corps plays as well as it can in front of Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek, who have potential if not my utmost confidence.
The Flyers finished one point in back of the Capitals last season and it wouldn't stun me to see a margin like that again. Carter Hart is going to have a career year and win the Vezina Trophy, because his atrocious road jitters are immaterial when he's playing in empty-to-near-empty barns all season. The Flyers have a versatile group of forwards, and I love that Oskar Lindblom-Sean Couturier-Travis Konecny troika. I'm a little concerned about the impact from Matt Niskanen's sudden retirement as a blue-line glue guy, but not as concerned as I am about what Gritty might do with an entire empty arena at its disposal every game. I'm imagining elaborate music numbers involving confetti cannons.
Look at the Penguins' roster from 2017-18 and then look at it now. The slow trickle of talent and personality from the team's mid-decade apex has finally caught up with Penguins, yet it's hard not to cede a playoff seed to them based on the quality of their coach and the continued relevance of Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, who gets Jake Guentzel back on his wing. But good lord, it's not a championship team. I'm not sure who needs to hear that, but let's state it for the record.
Hey, did you guys hear that Torey Krug wasn't brought back as a free agent and Zdeno Chara aged out of the Bruins' lineup? Because I truly don't understand the default placement of Boston atop this division by many pundits, despite this turnover on defense and lack of replacement. That's not to say the Bruins can't be a playoff team built on the backs of their top line, Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak.
It appears we'll be spared another postseason of Islanders anti-hockey, a practiced art that has become only more coma-inducing now that Ilya Sorokin upgraded their goalie tandem. A completely average team with one exemplary skill player in Mathew Barzal. I'll be interested to see if Jean-Gabriel Pageau is still a 0.63 points-per-game player under the blanket of a six-year contract extension.
I desperately wanted to find a way to get the Rangers into the playoffs, and they might have made it in the traditional Metro standings. But they're still so young and so defensively challenged (2.74 expected goals against last season at 5-on-5, second worst in the NHL). Unless Igor Shesterkin wills them to the postseason, in which case he wins the Calder Trophy and the Vezina.
The Buffalo Sabres. Sweet, sweet Buffalo. There should be an NFL Red Zone channel dedicated to showing us every line shift of Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall so we don't have to wait through the Cody Eakin and Kyle Okposo one to see them. The Sabres are high on some people's list of surprise teams, which makes sense in a 56-game sprint: 20 good games at the start, and maybe they maintain it? But while they filled some holes up front, they didn't upgrade their defense or the goaltending that had a .900 team save percentage last season. There's a much better chance that the Sabres are trading Hall to a playoff team than being one themselves this season.
Any chance the Devils had to outkick their coverage walked out the door with Corey Crawford. Another season in the tank, but not one without intrigue: What are the chances Travis Zajac, Kyle Palmieri and/or Nikita Gusev move at the deadline, as all of them are in their walk years? (The Devils have $39 million in cap space open for next summer. That is not a misprint.)
Discover NHL Central Division
1. Tampa Bay Lightning (Full preview)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (Full preview)
3. Nashville Predators (Full preview)
4. Columbus Blue Jackets (Full preview)
5. Dallas Stars (Full preview)
6. Florida Panthers (Full preview)
7. Chicago Blackhawks (Full preview)
8. Detroit Red Wings (Full preview)
Instead of a General Manager of the Year Award, the NHL should hand out an annual trophy for salary-cap wizardry. (Literally make it a bronzed graduation cap and call it the Cappie.) We hereby give this season's award to Julien BriseBois of the Stanley Cup champion Lightning, who used every conceivable spell in his book to pull off salary-cap sorcery to get under the ceiling while preserving his roster. Trades, team-friendly re-signings, dropping Tyler Johnson on the taxi squad, having Nikita Kucherov undergo regular-season-ending hip surgery. As a result, the Lightning are expected to be $334 under the $81.5 million salary cap. That's a 55-inch LED television away from the cap! His creative accounting means the Lightning are the class of the division, even without their best winger.
This is the deepest Hurricanes roster in over a decade. Sebastian Aho's line is one of the best in hockey, and the burgeoning superstardom of Andrei Svechnikov on the wing of Vincent Trocheck makes for a great second line. With a healthy Dougie Hamilton, they obliterate their points percentage from last season (.596) and make a strong push for first place in the division. Our only hope is that the retirement of Justin Williams and games being played in empty buildings doesn't mean the end of goofy "Storm Surge" celebrations. What's the point of winning if you're not going to play on-ice "duck, duck, goose" afterward?
The Predators are a real "playoffs or bust" team, in the sense that if they don't make the playoffs then they're going to take a sledgehammer to this roster like it's that demolished car in front of their arena. I love the Predators' depth, and they added some players -- Erik Haula, Nick Cousins, Brad Richardson -- who are a pain to play against. But it's the high-end players who make or break this team: Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson saw their games slip last season, and Ryan Johansen was a sub-replacement player in 2019-20. If we're being honest, I have zero confidence in this pick.
John Tortorella hasn't had a Blue Jackets team with lower than a .579 points percentage since 2015-16 and has had only one with over a .600 points percentage. The Jackets are the very definition of "there." It's hard to figure out what they are going to be with the Pierre-Luc Dubois trade request looming over them. But I'll take Seth Jones, Zach Werenski and that goaltending to nudge them into the top four in the weakest division of the realignment. Do they still fire the cannon if there are no fans in the building to frighten?
I have the Stars out of the playoffs, which isn't going to do me any favors with the Stars fans who still think I hate their team because we disagree on Sergei Zubov's Hall of Fame case. (He was inducted, so the war is over.) Missing Ben Bishop and Tyler Seguin for at least the first month of the season hurts, but I also lack confidence that Rick Bowness is going to get this group to a .592 winning percentage over a 56-game season. Whenever that season starts, of course, as the Stars had 17 (!) players test positive for COVID. (Unofficial 2020-21 team slogan: "Team Unity, Herd Immunity.")
I wish Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky nothing but the best this season, because ... well because I have absolutely no idea how this all plays out if it turns out he's already cooked with five years and $46.5 million left on a deal that carries a $10 million cap hit. Like, what do you do to fund that buyout? Swap out the logo on their jerseys for ad space? Anyway, we're probably underrating the Panthers here because it's the second season of Joel Quenneville and they'll probably be better than anticipated.
The Blackhawks, who should bottom out, and Red Wings, who are so bad that they'll prevent Chicago from bottoming out, will occupy the basement. On top of losing Jonathan Toews for an undetermined amount of time due to an undetermined illness, the Blackhawks are also without Kirby Dach for four months. Their No. 2 center at the moment is Lucas Wallmark, who played less than 13 minutes per game with Carolina and Florida last season. That the Blackhawks came into the season with a goaltending battery of Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia after an offseason in which roughly two dozen goaltenders were available kinda says the quiet part out loud about their expectations.
Honda NHL West Division
1. Vegas Golden Knights (Full preview)
2. Colorado Avalanche (Full preview)
3. St. Louis Blues (Full preview)
4. Minnesota Wild (Full preview)
5. San Jose Sharks (Full preview)
6. Arizona Coyotes (Full preview)
7. Anaheim Ducks (Full preview)
8. Los Angeles Kings (Full preview)
The NHL's greatest soap opera, the Golden Knights come into this season with something they've never had before: two elite defensemen. Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore -- the latter of whom leveled up to that status last season -- are going to give coach Pete DeBoer at least one outstanding defenseman on the ice for 90% of the game if he chooses to play them on separate pairings. It's reminiscent of how the Ducks won the Cup in 2007 with Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger gobbling up minutes; and like that Ducks team, the Knights are going to try to win without an elite center. It's a gamble, but hey, that's Vegas.
The Avalanche are the favorite at the sportsbooks to win the Stanley Cup because they're a meticulously constructed team with that aforementioned elite center on its roster in Nathan MacKinnon, but also because they were last postseason's greatest "what if?" due to the injuries that decimated their lineup in the Western Conference semifinals. They keep getting better, too, like with the addition of Devon Toews. Fingers crossed on the goaltending, however.
The Blues losing Pietrangelo isn't going to dramatically impact them on the ice, where the Torey Krug/Colton Parayko pairing is going to be outstanding, or in the dressing room, where former de facto captain Ryan O'Reilly formally takes over the job. The season rests on the shoulders of Jordan Binnington, who went from phenom as a rookie to merely above average last season. It's the second year of his two-year bridge contract, so he's going to be saving pucks for his supper.
I tried to will the Sharks into that fourth spot as a surprise choice, because outside of that goaltending there are some tantalizing aspects to the team: a revitalized Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns, a healthy forward group and an angry Logan Couture. But ... that goaltending.
The Wild don't have exemplary goaltending but got an upgrade in Cam Talbot. More to the point, they are a demonstrably better defensive team from an analytics standpoint. The Wild were sneakily 12th in goals per game (3.16) last season, and finally imported Kirill Kaprizov from the KHL to win the Calder Trophy this season.
The Coyotes might pull off a playoff qualification shocker based on the strength of Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta during the 56-game sprint. But under coach Rick Tocchet, the Coyotes have the shooting percentage of an Original Trilogy Stormtrooper. Heck, Phil Kessel went there and immediately had his lowest shooting percentage since 2014-15.
The Ducks could surprise if John Gibson becomes John Gibson again, i.e. the kind of goalie who can grab a team like this by the scruff of its neck and hoist it onto the playoff bubble. Otherwise, this seems like a roster filled with young players and older defensemen who should be producing more than they do.
Finally, the Kings are about a year away from actualizing as a team on the upswing. But they're going to be the best kind of bad team, which is one with exciting young players who are going to do spectacular things and make spectacular mistakes. And silver lining for Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty as they spend another year in the basement: They're going to earn a combined $18 million for it!
Scotia NHL North Division
1. Toronto Maple Leafs (Full preview)
2. Calgary Flames (Full preview)
3. Edmonton Oilers (Full preview)
4. Vancouver Canucks (Full preview)
5. Montreal Canadiens (Full preview)
6. Winnipeg Jets (Full preview)
7. Ottawa Senators (Full preview)
I'm not usually one for the over-romanticism of hockey, especially when viewed through the saccharine lens of Canadian exceptionalism. But it's a palpable bummer that we have an all-Canadian division and won't have a single packed arena to provide the aesthetics and acoustics these games deserve. Although in Toronto, I guess we can just pretend it's a typical late-arriving crowd.
Speaking of the Maple Leafs, of course they're going to win this division. Auston Matthews is going to be the first center to win the Rocket Richard since Sidney Crosby in 2016-17, and has a lane to the Hart Trophy. Frederik Andersen and Jack Campbell will be a suitable last line of defense behind a team that's still struggling to defend at a championship level. Every night will be like a playoff game, but won't actually be a playoff game, which means the Leafs will win more than they'll lose.
The Flames threw money at their biggest problem in signing Jacob Markstrom as a free-agent goaltending prize, and that should help compensate for a diminished defense corps. The real key here is the rebound of Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, who were atrocious for a good chunk of last season. Both need to be better or, failing that, Geoff Ward needs to adjust their ice time appropriately and give more of it to Matthew Tkachuk, who is low-key one of the best players in the division. More Tkachuk means more shenanigans, and in this division, shenanigans will beget even more shenanigans (and probably suspensions).
Calling the Oilers a two-man show is insulting to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, so apologies to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins because this is a two-man team. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid managed to get a mediocre Oilers roster into the playoffs last season with dominant offensive play and the best power play the NHL had seen in 40 years. That formula, and 40 strong games from an underrated Mikko Koskinen in goal, should get them back again.
One of the most overplayed concerns of the offseason was the cratering of the Canucks' goaltending. That's not to say Markstrom wasn't their MVP last season, because in many ways he was. It's to say that Thatcher Demko and Braden Holtby, now under the wing of a tremendous goalie coach in Ian Clark, are going to be an above-average battery and not a liability. What I like most about this team are the high-end impact players who are going to make a difference in a 56-game season, from Elias Pettersson to Quinn Hughes.
The Canadiens are not a playoff team for me, although they've been cemented into the top four by a lot of other pundits. They feel like a team that's about a year away from doing something really special, when the young stars are ripe and the veteran supporting cast has amalgamated. They'll miss by a hair, but they're on the right track. Please note that this prognostication changes if they trade for Pierre-Luc Dubois, and if they can sneak him into Canada without his having to wait two weeks to join them.
The Jets could have 45 games of Connor Hellebuyck, which means they'll have a shot at securing one of these playoff spots. But their defense corps and their bottom-six forwards are the weakest in the division, even though they have some high-end offensive talent that could make things interesting. Let's all enjoy the last season of Patrik Laine in Winnipeg.
The Senators are going to be a tough out most nights and are going to be a fun team to watch. Rookie Tim Stutzle appears to be the Calder candidate du jour for the Canadian media, which might just be a case of World Juniors brain worms. There's nothing wrong with another season in the basement for a team building for the future.
The MassMutual, Discover, Honda and Scotia NHL Stanley Cup Final powered by MassMutual, Discover, Honda and Scotia
Toronto Maple Leafs over Colorado Avalanche
We keep hearing about how this is an unprecedented season, a season like no other, a season for the ages. In other words, it's a season of the weird. Nothing will make sense. Up will be down, left will be right, the Florida Panthers will lead the NHL in attendance. That sort of thing.
So it would track, then, that the Stanley Cup champion would have to be a team to match that level of eccentricity. On one side of the final, the expected: the Avalanche, critical darlings. On the other side, the unexpected: the Maple Leafs, the embodiment of playoff fiasco.
There are reasons to believe the Leafs could challenge for the Stanley Cup, like elite offensive talent, their harsh education in previous playoff appearances, a refocused Freddie Andersen and getting as far away from the Bruins as realignment would allow. But the primary reason to believe they can win the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1967 is that it would be a logical conclusion to an illogical season, and hence the most appropriate ending.
But mostly, I just want to see what Joe Thornton does on his day with the Stanley Cup.
Three things about the new season
1. NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly confirmed to me that puck and player tracking will be active in all 31 arenas this season. But I get the sense that this is still a pilot program. Most of the data is going to be used to enhance TV broadcasts with trivial information like how many miles Connor McDavid skated during a game. I'm not sure how much, if any, raw data is going to be available to the public.
To me, there are two game-changers for puck and player tracking. First, it's allowing the hockey analytics community a crack at the data in order to create a collection of new stats -- it's not like the NHL created Corsi itself, right? Then it's allowing the sportsbooks that have licensed this data to create a plethora of fun prop bets, further getting hockey wagering out of its staid "moneyline, puckline, over/under" limitations.
2. I'm on the record as saying that the NHL should sell everything it can to create revenue streams and preserve existing relationships with sponsors -- which is why most of the ads we see on player helmets are, not coincidentally, the same ones on the front of the teams' arenas. It's about satisfying an existing deal instead of new business.
Where I draw the line is advertising that detracts from the viewing experience. Those CGI advertisements on the glass during games come perilously close to crossing that line. These ads stuck on the actual glass, seen here in Tampa Bay, hurdle over that line:
These ads on the glass are 1000% more egregious than the ads on helmets. pic.twitter.com/LGhiXyKrkh
— Greg Wyshynski (@wyshynski) January 14, 2021
Nothing like watching a hockey game and feeling like the rink is being swallowed by an Ichthyosaur.
3. As I mentioned on ESPN Daily with Pablo Torre this week, teams are spending millions of dollars to upgrade their arenas in the time of COVID-19. That includes things like extra signage, more plexiglass, innovative mobile food ordering systems and, in the case of the Florida Panthers, rethinking ... urinals? Panthers chief operating officer Sean McCaffrey said one of the innovations for the team was to install larger urinal dividers in BB&T Center "so you can't see the other person's face when they cough."
And, as most would probably prefer when they're standing at a urinal, avoid seeing the other person's face when they don't cough.
Winners and losers of the week
Winner: Nolan Patrick
What a great moment for the No. 2 overall pick from 2017. His goal on opening night against the Pittsburgh Penguins came in his first NHL game in 652 days. He missed all of last season due to a migraine disorder, having last played on April 2, 2019. Best of luck to the kid.
Loser: Keith Yandle
According to TSN, the Panthers have decided that the veteran defenseman is not in their plans and could be a healthy scratch at the start of the season. This means that his 866-game ironman streak is in jeopardy. Factor in a contract that's tough to trade due to a $6.35 million cap hit that runs through 2022-23, not to mention his trade protection, and this is a potentially ugly situation in Sunrise.
Winner: Broadcast opportunity
There had been only three women in NHL history who served as radio analysts for teams. Now there's a fourth: Lyndsey Fry, an Arizona native who played for the U.S. national team during the 2014 Olympics, was hired by the Coyotes as their radio color commentator.
Said Coyotes president and CEO Xavier Gutierrez: "It's great for young girls to hear a female's voice -- but for young boys, it's just as important to have someone who is knowledgeable, someone who has inspired others to play the game, and someone who is from here."
Loser: Broadcast entitlement
Mike Babcock has been accused of bullying former Red Wings star Johan Franzen until he had an emotional breakdown on the bench. The Maple Leafs acknowledged that his tactics while he was their head coach were not "appropriate or acceptable." Babcock has not acknowledged or apologized for this behavior. He has, however, been given an image-cleansing position on NBC's studio show as an analyst this season.
I asked NBC Sports executive producer Sam Flood if the accusations had been addressed with Babcock, or whether Babcock would address them on the air. His response was "we've had a full process of conversations, as we do with anyone we bring in on the team." Second chances are fine. But they're a privilege, not a right. And until he explains himself or shows some growth, Babcock hasn't earned one yet.
Winner: Ryan Reaves
Evander Kane of the Sharks filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in the Northern District of California this week, listing assets of about $10 million, mostly in real estate, and liabilities of almost $27 million. Kane claims $1.5 million in gambling losses over the past 12 months. So congrats to Ryan Reaves, Golden Knights enforcer (and Evander Kane tormentor), on the new material.
Loser: Eugene Melnyk
Announcing your plan to let 6,000 fans into Ottawa Senators home games almost simultaneously as the Ontario government issued a stay-at-home order due to spiking COVID-19 rates, and then having to publish a "clarification" on that plan, which amounts to a full retreat from said plan? Classic Melnyk.
Winner: Retired numbers
On the heels of finally getting into the Hockey Hall of Fame in 2018, Willie O'Ree will receive another overdue honor: Getting his number raised to the rafters by the Boston Bruins, with whom he broke the NHL color barrier in 1958.
Loser: Gender reveals
Congrats I guess? pic.twitter.com/uXtUzi1vMN
— Gritty (@GrittyNHL) January 13, 2021
The NHL's paused season obviously cost a lot of people the honor of having Gritty announce the gender of their child. (This is, without question, hilarious.)
Puck headlines
Insightful essay by Alex Manley on whether there will be an openly queer player in the NHL, where "male aggression is valorized while any weakness, real or perceived, is weaponized."
The Athletic goalie tiers were interesting, in that Philipp Grubauer was surprisingly low and Elvis Merzlikins was surprisingly high.
Marisa Ingemi is doing weekly horoscopes for NHL teams. Did you know the Sabres have the highest concentration in Sagittarius?
Checking in on the resurrected Alabama Huntsville hockey team.
Michael Baumann: "By chance, the NHL has shielded Canada from having to acknowledge its status as a hockey empire in decline. Such acknowledgement, if and when it comes, will likely be painful. Canada is the arrogant, exceptionalist power in a sport where its two main rivals are the U.S. and Russia, which is saying something."
Easton Parnell has the most resplendent hockey hair we have seen in quite a while. It's like a white dwarf star.
Mike Milbury will no longer be an analyst for NBC Sports.
Finally, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare is so pure:
Here's @andreburakovsky crushing Pierre-Edouard Bellemare's dreams and telling him that February's Lake Tahoe game will not be played on the lake. #Avs pic.twitter.com/Umha9Srtpk
— Peter Baugh (@Peter_Baugh) January 12, 2021
From your friends at ESPN