For several recent seasons, the Tampa Bay Lightning were a great team that couldn't crest the Stanley Cup mountain. Amid the most unique playoff circumstances in memory, they emerged as the champs in 2020. Can they repeat the feat?
To do so, they'll have to overcome a long-term injury to star Nikita Kucherov, one of the NHL's dominant offensive forces. But, they did just win a Cup while playing the vast majority of the time without captain Steven Stamkos, so we're not ready to count them out. Here's everything you need to know ahead of the 2020-21 season:
Big question: How big of a loss is Nikita Kucherov?
The 27-year-old Kucherov has scored 398 points over the last four seasons, which trails only Connor McDavid for most in the league. The 2019 MVP has been a huge part of the Lightning's recent success -- including a team-high 34 points in the 2020 Stanley Cup run -- but will be sidelined the entire season after undergoing hip surgery.
The Lightning are as deep as any team in the league (as you'll see below in the "NHL Rank" section). How will they adjust the long term loss of Kucherov, and does the complexion of this team help?
Did realignment hurt or help?
There's no question that the Lightning's schedule looks much easier without having to go through Boston and Toronto for a divisional crown. Tampa Bay enters as the clear-cut favorite in the new-look Central Division, with the Stars (whom the Lightning just defeated in the Stanley Cup Final) as the next closest competition.
Offseason comings and goings, plus the cap situation
The Lightning have $0 in projected cap space, according to Cap Friendly. They said goodbye to a pair of defensemen who revived their careers in Tampa and helped the Lightning win a Stanley Cup, in Zach Bogosian and Kevin Shattenkirk. Carter Verhaeghe, Cedric Paquette and Braydon Coburn are also gone. The Lightning did not add any projected roster players this offseason, instead shifting focus (and limited cap resources) on re-signing their own restricted free agents.
Bold prediction
Anthony Cirelli wins the Selke Trophy. Right before our eyes, the 23-year-old Cirelli has developed into one of the best second-line centers in the league. His biggest strength is his defensive game, as Cirelli allowed just 1.94 expected goals against per 60 minutes last season. Cirelli finished fourth in Selke Trophy voting last year, so his name is already on voters' radars.
Breakout candidate: Erik Cernak
The 23-year-old just completed his second NHL season. As a big-bodied defensive defenseman, he doesn't get a lot of love playing on a star-studded team (which includes a Norris Trophy winner in Victor Hedman leading the blue line). But Cernak is poised for a bigger role, especially with Tampa Bay's defensive departures, and could emerge as a household name by the end of the season.
Biggest strength: Depth
Most teams would be shattered by the loss of a player like Kucherov. Not the Lightning, who boast enviable center options and the league's most well-rounded group of forwards. They get Stamkos back, and perhaps Kucherov's absence means that Brayden Point -- a budding superstar in this league -- can get even more opportunities.
Biggest weakness: Right side of the defense
It's nitpicking here because, after all, they're the defending champions. And maybe we're being harsh because the left side (Hedman, Mikhail Sergachev and Cernak) is so dominant. But if there's any room for the team to improve, it's on the right side of the defense which currently has Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta and Luke Schenn as the top three options.
Lightning in NHL Rank
No. 3: Victor Hedman, D
No. 5: Andrei Vasilevskiy, G
No. 14: Brayden Point, C
No. 30: Steven Stamkos, C
No. 80: Mikhail Sergachev, D
No. 98: Ryan McDonagh, D
Prospect perspective
Pipeline ranking: 29
Prospects in the top 100: No. 90 Alex Barre-Boulet (LW), No. 100 Cal Foote (D)
Fantasy facts to know
The Kucherov injury hurts the power play -- oh, boy, does it hurt the power play -- but Stamkos has spent enough time on lines apart from Kucherov that his overall value won't take a huge hit.
The question now is whether the Bolts think Brayden Point can carry his own line or whether he gets teamed up with Stamkos. One elevates his value, the other depresses it. I lean toward them playing together, which would mean good things for whoever plays with them.
We know Andrei Vasilevskiy and Victor Hedman are among the best fantasy plays at their position, and that Point and Mikhail Sergachev are well above average, too. The real fantasy value comes from the other forwards that carve out a niche with all these elite teammates. That would be some combination of Alex Killorn (power play), Anthony Cirelli (No. 2 center) and Ondrej Palat (streaky scoring).
A sneaky pick with the new standard hits category: Players with 190 hits and 20 goals last season include Brady Tkachuk, Tom Wilson and Blake Coleman of the Lightning. -- Sean Allen