The 2019-20 NHL season felt a lot like many recent seasons for the Toronto Maple Leafs: They roared through the regular season ... and came up short when it came time for the postseason.
But, there are significant wrinkles in the 2020-21 campaign that benefit Auston Matthews & Co.; specifically, the new division alignment (and not having to face the Tampa Bay Lightning or Boston Bruins until the final four). So what do they have in store for fans this season? Here's everything you need to know prior to opening night:
Big question: Is this the year?
Asking this question has been an annual tradition for 54 years. It's usually about the Stanley Cup. It's still about the Stanley Cup this season, but it can also apply to another query about the Maple Leafs: Is this the year they get out of the first round of the playoffs? That hasn't happened since 2004, as Toronto currently has a four-season streak of opening-round eliminations.
The Leafs have surrounded John Tavares and their dynamic young core with some veteran players, as GM Kyle Dubas deftly maneuvered under the flat salary cap. Whether it's winning the first round or winning the last round, the big question remains: Is this the year?
Did realignment hurt or help?
Helped. There aren't going to be any quiet nights for the Maple Leafs in a division filled with their Canadian neighbors, and Toronto should thrive on that intensity. But most importantly: The Bruins are not in the North Division. So this really, really helped.
Offseason comings and goings, plus the cap situation
Following the path that Patrick Marleau blazed, Joe Thornton is now the elder statesman of the Maple Leafs, signing a one-year contract ($700,000) and potentially playing with Auston Matthews. The Leafs also added veteran forwards Wayne Simmonds ($1.5 million) and Jimmy Vesey ($900,000) on one-year deals. On defense, the Leafs landed a big free agent in T.J. Brodie (formerly of the Flames), a sturdy defensive defenseman who signed a five-year deal ($5 million average annual value). They also added veteran Zach Bogosian on a one-year deal, fresh off his steady playoff stint with the Stanley Cup champion Lightning. One name to watch is KHL import Mikko Lehtonen, also on a one-year deal.
Dubas will have the Leafs under the cap when the season starts, but there's little wiggle room to do more. That said, Toronto has only 13 players under contract for the 2021-22 season.
Bold prediction
Auston Matthews win the Rocket Richard. A few of the sportsbooks have him as the betting favorite for the NHL's goal-scoring leader, and for good reason. He's coming off his most productive goal-scoring season on average (0.67 goals per game). There's a chance he could play with two incredible playmakers in Thornton and Mitch Marner. At the very least, adding Thornton to the power play might increase his production there. In a 56-game season, Matthews could earn his first hardware.
Breakout candidate: Mikko Lehtonen
Step one is making the team with a regular spot on the lineup. Step two is moving up said lineup into the top four. Both of those things are possible for the 26-year-old, who has been jokingly (we think) referred to as "The Finnish Bobby Orr." He was the KHL's top defenseman for the past two seasons and has the puck skills to fit right in with the Leafs' offensive machinery.
Biggest strength: Scoring
Matthews, Marner, Tavares, William Nylander and the rest of the Leafs' scorers make them an elite offensive team, finishing third in goals-per-game average last season, at 3.39. At least in the regular season.
Biggest weakness: Playoff scoring
The Leafs averaged 2.00 goals per game in their qualification round defeat to the Columbus Blue Jackets last postseason. Over the past four seasons, they've averaged 3.30 goals per game in the regular season, and just 2.52 goals per game in the playoffs.
Granted, some of that is chalked up to playing the Bruins twice and the Blue Jackets once -- two very good defensive teams. But for a team that carries play offensively for 82 (or 56) games to be unable to find ways to score goals in the postseason remains one reason why it's been a long, long time since this team found playoff success.
Maple Leafs in NHL Rank
No. 7: Auston Matthews, C
No. 18: Mitch Marner, RW
No. 31: John Tavares, C
No. 43: Morgan Rielly, D
No. 94: William Nylander, RW
Prospect perspective
Pipeline ranking: 12
Prospects in the top 100: No. 13 Nick Robertson (LW), Rodion Amirov (LW), No. 97 Timothy Liljegren (D)
Fantasy facts to know
The question here is how the Big Four help lift other fantasy boats. Zach Hyman should be healthy and on a line with Matthews and Marner again. Tavares and Nylander have a spot, too, which is likely Ilya Mikheyev's to lose.
Morgan Rielly should rebound from a down season, but note that the ESPN standard scoring changes play into Jake Muzzin's wheelhouse more so than Rielly's.
Workload alone will make Frederik Andersen a contender to be among the top five fantasy goalies under the new scoring system, which doesn't penalize poor ratios as much. -- Sean Allen