The Edmonton Oilers have two of the NHL's top-scoring superstars on their roster in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Unfortunately, two elite players does not a championship roster make, as the Oilers found out with their qualification-round ouster in the 2020 postseason (on their home rink, no less).
Did GM Ken Holland surround his two elite players with enough to make them a serious Stanley Cup contender in 2020-21? Here's everything you need to know ahead of opening night:
Big question: Can the Oilers defend at a championship level?
Last season, the Oilers had the most potent power play the NHL had seen in 40 years. They were second on the penalty kill. Special teams were not the problem. Even-strength most certainly was the problem: They were minus-10 in goal differential in the regular season, and then gave up 12 even-strength goals in four games in their qualification-round upset loss to the Chicago Blackhawks.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are dominant offensively and non-factors defensively. While Mikko Koskinen is a capable goalie, crease-mate Mike Smith had a minus-7.71 goals saved above average. Coach Dave Tippett's teams used to punch above their weight defensively when he was in Arizona. This one has yet to prove it can defend well enough at 5-on-5 to contend for a championship.
Did realignment hurt or help?
Neither. The Oilers finished second in the Pacific last season, ahead of Calgary and Vancouver and behind Vegas. They're not up to the Toronto Maple Leafs' standards, but could still be the second-best team in the North Division based on McDavid and Draisaitl alone.
Offseason comings and goings, plus the cap situation
The Oilers are currently over the salary cap but will get back under when Oscar Klefbom ($4.167 million in average annual value) is put on long-term injured reserve.
GM Ken Holland went bargain hunting in the offseason. He signed center Kyle Turris (two years, $1,65 million AAV) after Nashville bought him out. He inked Tyson Barrie to a one-year deal ($3.75 million AAV) to bolster Edmonton's blue line while giving him a chance to inflate his stock after a tough 2019-20 season in Toronto. He added froward Dominik Kahun for one year at $975,000. Finally, he welcomed back Jesse Puljujarvi, the No. 4 overall pick in 2016, who played last season in Finland after requesting a trade out of Edmonton.
Bold prediction
The Oilers miss the playoffs. It could be argued, quite successfully, that Edmonton has the weakest goaltending in the North outside of Ottawa. They can't be trusted at 5-on-5 defensively, and their special teams may be due for some regression. By no means does this portend a disastrous season for the Oilers -- barring injury, any team that can roll out McDavid and Draisaitl with regularity is going to contend. But with Montreal, Calgary, Winnipeg and Vancouver all jockeying for three spots behind the Leafs, it wouldn't be stunning to see the Oilers, with their lack of defense and their specious supporting cast, just outside the top four.
Breakout candidate: Kailer Yamamoto
The 22-year-old forward found a home on Draisaitl's wing last season, and scored 26 points in 27 games, skating to a plus-17. He's listed at 5-foot-8 but plays a smart, tenacious game. The Oilers were smart themselves to wait on his development for a couple of seasons before thrusting him into a big role.
Biggest strength: The big two
McDavid and Draisaitl have proven they can carry this team to the playoffs on their own as two of the biggest offensive difference-makers in the NHL. No two players in the NHL contributed a greater percentage of their team's offense than the Oilers' stars. (Alright, "big three" if you want to extend the honors to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, their tremendously versatile forward coming off his best offensive season at 0.94 points per game.)
Biggest weakness: Defense
Ethan Bear and Darnell Nurse are the Oilers' top pairing, and they had a 46.7% goals-for percentage at 5-on-5 last season. Tyson Barrie is a much-needed puck mover, likely paired with an old defensive hand in Kris Russell. Caleb Jones and Adam Larsson are the other likely pairing, with Slater Koekkoek in the wings. There isn't a No. 1 defenseman in this lot, a situation exacerbated by Klefbom's season-ending injury.
But this isn't just a blue-line personnel problem. This is a total team problem, from the defensive deficiencies of the top two lines to the uncertain quality of the bottom six to average-at-best goaltending that inexplicably returned Mike Smith for 2020-21 despite one of the most robust goalie markets in years. If this costs the Oilers a postseason spot, fret not: Holland has over $26 million in open cap space right now for next offseason. Changes will come. But perhaps not soon enough.
Oilers in NHL Rank
No. 1: Connor McDavid, C
No. 4: Leon Draisaitl, C
No. 100: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, LW
Prospect perspective
Pipeline ranking: 14
Prospects in the top 100: No. 36 Evan Bouchard (D), No. 48 Philip Broberg (D), No. 56 Dylan Holloway (C)
Fantasy facts to know
Along with Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon, superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are stand alone elite fantasy assets; no need for a deep dive there.
The supporting cast members up front are far more interesting, like young Kailer Yamamoto, who collected 26 points in 27 games this past season and is pegged to skate on a scoring line with Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins (no fantasy slouch himself). There's also Jesse Puljujarvi, who returns for a redemption tour in Edmonton after a recent successful run with Karpat in the Finnish Liiga. Second chances are rare enough in the NHL, fewer even that involve playing alongside a center like McDavid. If that's in fact where Puljujarvi sticks, the 2016 fourth-overall draft pick serves as a fantasy super-sleeper with potential to score at a point-per-game pace.
After a relatively rough go in Toronto, Barrie earns a clean slate with his new squad out. There's little question the Oilers will task Barrie with anchoring their top power-play unit to start -- the league's best in 2019-20 -- particularly with Klefbom doubtful for the season. Competing alongside McDavid, Draisaitl & Co. with the extra skater should see Barrie revisit his plumper numbers from days with the Avalanche.
Tandem teammates Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith are serviceable depth goalies in deeper leagues, but that's about it. -- Victoria Matiash