Continuing a tradition we began last year, we're going back five years to see how different the first round of the NHL draft would play out if GMs had the benefit of 100 percent accurate foresight as to how draft prospects would pan out. We've tasked former NHL assistant GM Frank Provenzano (a veteran of 17 NHL drafts) and our prospect analyst Corey Pronman with going through a re-draft of the 2009 first round.
The 2009 NHL draft produced two stars -- John Tavares and Matt Duchene -- but they were highly rated heading into the event, so their production in the time since hasn't been hugely surprising. However, the 2009 class also had its share of highly drafted players that didn't pan out (including Scott Glennie, No. 8 overall) as well as players taken later who have become NHL regulars (including No. 149 overall selection Marcus Kruger and No. 161 overall selection Darcy Kuemper).
For the purposes of this re-draft, we accounted primarily for future value, using past production only as an indicator of what that future value will be. This draft order represents our selection of the best available player in each slot, with notes in certain cases regarding fit into the long-term organizational plans.
After a coin toss, Frank won the right to select first overall, and we alternated picks thereafter (Corey on the evens, Frank on the odds). We're using the original draft order, prior to any trades made that day.
1. New York Islanders: John Tavares, C, London Knights (OHL)
Five years after having his name called to start the draft party in Montreal, Tavares remains the first overall pick today. The 23-year-old center has averaged just under a point per game (0.90) in the 350 NHL games he has played thus far in his young career, and he has done so without the strongest of supporting casts, to put it mildly. Tavares is not only the Islanders' captain but is also the face of a franchise that should be on the verge of loftier heights.
Tavares' actual draft slot: No. 1, Islanders
Islanders' actual pick: Tavares
2. Tampa Bay Lightning: Matt Duchene, C, Brampton Battalion (OHL)
I'd agree with Frank that Tavares is the best player from 2009, but it's not insane to consider Duchene for that designation as well. His dynamic skating and skill level make him a consistent offensive threat. He has already produced his first 70-point season as he enters his physical prime, so we could be just getting a glimpse of things to come, particularly once Colorado's other young forwards, such as Nathan MacKinnon, blossom and give him strong partners with which to work.
Duchene's actual draft slot: No. 3, Avalanche
Lightning's actual pick: Victor Hedman
3. Colorado Avalanche: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Leksand (Allsvenskan)
The Coyotes were ecstatic to find Ekman-Larsson still on the draft board when their turn at the microphone came up in 2009, and for good reason. The smooth-skating Swedish rearguard already anchors the Phoenix blue line, and he finished fifth overall in the NHL in goals by a defenseman (15) and sixth in average ice time (25:53) this past season. Add numbers like this into Colorado’s current mix of players, and the Avs might be playing hockey into June.
Ekman-Larsson's actual draft slot: No. 6, Coyotes
Avalanche's actual pick: Duchene
4. Atlanta Thrashers: Ryan O'Reilly, C, Erie Otters (OHL)
O'Reilly is a high-end, two-way player who logs the tough minutes and works very hard, yet seemingly was incapable of taking minor penalties this season (he finished with a mere two penalty minutes for the 2013-14 season). The former first overall pick in the OHL in 2007 -- taken one spot ahead of Taylor Hall -- showed promise immediately upon landing in the NHL and is now one of the league's better all-around centers.
O'Reilly's actual draft slot: No. 33, Avalanche
Thrashers' actual pick: Evander Kane
5. Los Angeles Kings: Victor Hedman, D, Modo (SHL)
If the Kings had added the 6-foot-6, 233-pound rearguard to their organization back in 2009, they would possess the fifth-best point producing defenseman in the NHL in their blue-line group. And they would still have Drew Doughty. That is one heck of a one-two punch to anchor the back end of a team that looks like it has not quite satisfied its thirst for NHL championships.
Hedman's actual draft slot: No. 2, Lightning
Kings' actual pick: Brayden Schenn
6. Phoenix Coyotes: Evander Kane, C, Vancouver Giants (WHL)
Evander has been the subject of much criticism in his time in Atlanta and Winnipeg, but he's been 35th in goals (alongside some pretty good names, per Hockey-reference.com) the past three seasons, despite missing time due to injury (playing 185 of 212 possible games in that span). While he'll never be a team's best defensive forward, he has improved in that area. I like my chances with a player like him on my team's top line.
Kane's actual draft slot: No. 4, Thrashers
Coyotes' actual pick: Oliver Ekman-Larsson
7. Toronto Maple Leafs: Nick Leddy, D, Eden Prairie (US high school)
The Leafs could certainly use some help for a defense group that surrendered an NHL-worst 35.9 shots against per game in 2013-14, and Leddy would have gone a long way toward fixing that leak, as the young Chicago defender was the among the NHL leaders in Corsi for percentage (57.1) this past season. Not only was Leddy relatively undervalued on draft day, but he was also acquired by the Hawks for a player (Cam Barker) who is no longer in the NHL.
Leddy's actual draft slot: No. 16, Wild
Maple Leafs' actual pick: Nazem Kadri
8. Dallas Stars: Chris Kreider, C, Phillips Academy (US high school)
This pick is certainly more about future value than any lengthy past display of NHL performance. Kreider had a very quality rookie campaign and looks like a long-term fixture in a top-six role. His elite skating abilities are recognized regularly, but he also has a high-end physical aspect to his game, along with a big-time shot. With more NHL experience, I see his ice time growing into premium minutes.
Kreider's actual draft slot: No. 19, Rangers
Stars' actual pick: Scott Glennie
9. Ottawa Senators: Dmitry Kulikov, D, Drummondville Voltigeurs (QMJHL)
Kulikov carried the risk of the Russian passport back in 2009, despite the fact that he was playing junior hockey up the road (sort of) in Drummondville. The Russian rearguard has proven worth the gamble, as he has played more than 300 games in the NHL (albeit on a weak Panthers team) since draft day and, perhaps more tellingly, signed a second NHL contract without bolting to the KHL.
Kulikov's actual draft slot: No. 14, Panthers
Senators' actual pick: Jared Cowen
10. Edmonton Oilers: Craig Smith, C, Waterloo Black Hawks (USHL)
He's not the biggest "name" player, but on a Predators team that was below average offensively, Smith put up 24 goals and 52 points in 2013-14 and blossomed into the top-end goal-scorer envisioned during his college days at Wisconsin. Smith also just wrapped up a great run at the IIHF World Championships, where he was a top player for Team USA.
Smith's actual draft slot: No. 98, Predators
Oilers' actual pick: Magnus Paajarvi
11. Nashville Predators: Nazem Kadri, C, London Knights (OHL)
The flashy and offensively gifted Kadri might not seem like the prototypical Nashville player in terms of style, which is precisely why the Predators could sorely use him. On the flip side, Nashville’s well-established development road through Milwaukee of the AHL might have better facilitated the young Kadri’s education in the finer points of the full 200 feet of an NHL rink.
Kadri's actual draft slot: No. 7, Maple Leafs
Predators' actual pick: Ryan Ellis
12. Minnesota Wild: Cody Eakin, C, Swift Current Broncos (WHL)
Eakin's scoring rate in 2013-14 didn't match his ice time (35 points in 81 games, despite playing 17:20 per game), but it was an unlucky season for him: He posted a career low in shooting percentage (9.9), and his team's shooting percentage when he was on the ice (7.45) was also very low. Eakin is a great skater who can contribute at both ends with a solid skill level and a plus shot. With better fortune going forward, Eakin will contribute in a second-line capacity, at a minimum.
Eakin's actual draft slot: No. 85, Capitals
Wild's actual pick: Nick Leddy (traded down to No. 16)
13. Buffalo Sabres: Jared Cowen, D, Spokane Chiefs (WHL)
Cowen has had to fight through both injury and inconsistency, but the 6-foot-5, 228-pound rearguard has already played two full NHL seasons and still has room to grow his game to match the physical gifts that merited a top-10 selection on draft day in 2009. Buffalo has been quietly stockpiling young talent in its organizational overhaul, and Cowen would add a significant asset to that effort.
Cowen's actual draft slot: No. 9, Senators
Sabres' actual pick: Zack Kassian
14. Florida Panthers: Marcus Johansson, C, Farjestad BK Karlstad (SHL)
He's been a point of debate for a few years (in Washington, anyway), in terms of level of production, what position he plays and what exactly his long-term role is, but Johansson has been performing at a consistent top-six level. He's a great skater, and while he's not much of a finisher, he can certainly generate scoring chances. His 44 points in 80 games might not seem too exciting, but that's a reality of the NHL draft: That type of player is what should be expected in the middle of the first round.
Johansson's actual draft slot: No. 24, Capitals
Panthers' actual pick: Dmitri Kulikov
15. Anaheim Ducks: Reilly Smith, RW, St. Michaels Buzzers (OJHL)
Despite the fact that Smith’s brother Brendan was a first-round pick in 2007, the slighter Reilly didn’t garner as much attention on his draft day coming out of the second-tier Ontario Junior Hockey League. Since turning pro, the 2011-12 Hobey Baker finalist (with Miami University) has had a swift ascension up the NHL ladder, and he might actually turn out to be the most valuable piece that came Boston’s way in the Tyler Seguin trade.
Smith's actual draft slot: No. 69, Stars
Ducks' actual pick: Peter Holland
16. Columbus Blue Jackets: Tomas Tatar, C, HKm Zvolen (Slovak Extraliga)
Tatar has been brought along slowly and played less than 15 minutes per game this season; in other words, this pick is more about future value than past performance. He's a really smart offensive player who anticipates the flow of the attack so well, and he has great hands and significantly better skating ability than he did at the time of the draft. With more physical progression, he could be a quality NHL forward for the long haul.
Tatar's actual draft slot: No. 60, Red Wings
Blue Jackets' actual pick: John Moore (traded down to No. 21)
17. St. Louis Blues: Brayden Schenn, C, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
It took a while (and two different organizations), but Schenn seems to have settled into his niche as a solid (if unspectacular) top-nine NHL forward. His upside is likely not much higher than his 2013-14 numbers (20 goals and 41 points in 82 games) would suggest, though, which is why this fifth overall pick has dropped to the middle of the first round.
Schenn's actual draft slot: No. 5, Kings
Blues' actual pick: David Rundblad
18. Montreal Canadiens: Calvin de Haan, D, Oshawa Generals (OHL)
After many injury-riddled seasons, de Haan was finally healthy enough in 2013-14 to play 70 games (between the AHL and NHL), and he displayed the two-way potential he's hinted at for years. He's a guy whose value leans to the defensive end (despite the high point totals from junior), but that's not really a negative, as he's shown the ability to be very good in that role.
de Haan's actual draft slot: No. 12, Islanders
Canadiens' actual pick: Louis Leblanc
19. New York Rangers: Tyson Barrie, D, Kelowna Rockets (WHL)
Prospects such as Barrie are often difficult for scouting staffs to confidently gamble first-round picks on because they present a clear “separating asset” and a barrier to potential NHL rosterdom at the same time. In this case, Barrie’s NHL-caliber mobility and offensive instincts overcame his deficiencies in size and strength, as he led all Avs blueliners in goals this past season (13).
Barrie's actual draft slot: No. 64, Avalanche
Rangers' actual pick: Chris Kreider
20. Calgary Flames: Marcus Kruger, C, Djurgardens IF Stockholm (SHL)
Kruger's production and minutes have been somewhat limited, but as with Nick Leddy (selected earlier), some of that is a product of team effects: The Blackhawks are stacked. Despite extremely tough usage -- starting 21 percent of his non-neutral zone even-strength draws in his own end during 2013-14 -- he has produced at a decent clip (28 points). His hockey sense is exceptional in all zones, and while he won't dazzle with skill, he's certainly an above-average NHLer.
Kruger's actual draft slot: No. 149, Blackhawks
Flames' actual pick: Tim Erixon (traded down to No. 23)
21. Philadelphia Flyers: Brenden Dillon, D, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)
Had NHL teams known that Dillon would add four inches and 35 pounds to his frame between his 2009 draft year and the 2013-14 season, there’s a good chance someone would have at least bet a seventh-round pick on the Stars’ rugged defenseman. With two NHL seasons now under his belt, the undrafted Dillon has firmly established himself in the top-four rotation on Dallas’ blue line and, ironically for this exercise, was one of the reasons Dallas felt comfortable trading UFA-to-be Nik Grossman to the Flyers at the 2012 trade deadline.
Dillon's actual draft slot: Not drafted
Flyers' actual pick: N/A (Philadelphia traded pick as part of a package for Chris Pronger)
22. Vancouver Canucks: Jakob Silfverberg, RW/LW, Brynas IF Gavle (J20 SuperElit)
Silfverberg came to North America with much hype after a big 2011-12 campaign in Sweden (54 points in 49 games playing in the top Swedish pro league), and though he's not as high-end a prospect as that season suggested, he is an effective, big winger with defensive value and a good skill level. He hasn't shown the ability to consistently play at a top-six level in the NHL, but he certainly has that potential.
Silfverberg's actual draft slot: No. 39, Senators
Canucks' actual pick: Jordan Schroeder
23. New Jersey Devils: Kyle Palmieri, LW, USNTDP (USHL)
Palmieri has established himself within the second tier of Anaheim’s forward group (and by second tier, I mean all Ducks not named Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry). As the modern NHL era continues to evolve into a more speed-based attack game, players such as Palmieri have a potentially higher lineup upside than they did even five years ago, and he would add youth to a New Jersey forward group that is getting a tad long in the tooth.
Palmieri's actual draft slot: No. 26, Ducks
Devils' actual pick: Jacob Josefson (traded up to No. 20)
24. Washington Capitals: Dmitri Orlov, D, Metallurg Novokuznetsk (KHL)
Orlov still winds up in Washington, but a round earlier than he did back in 2009. After a lengthy delay, Orlov found himself as an NHL regular this season -- and impressed. He's a high-end skater with a big shot and some puck-moving skill. He doesn't appear to be a stalwart on the penalty kill, but he could be a long-term top-four defenseman.
Orlov's actual draft slot: No. 55, Capitals
Capitals' actual pick: Marcus Johansson
25. Boston Bruins: Ryan Ellis, D, Windsor Spitfires (OHL)
The undersized Ellis would likely put up bigger NHL numbers were he not fighting for ice time on the crowded Nashville blue line. Ultimately, his NHL upside will be tied to his growth on the power play, which is not going to happen anytime soon behind the Predators’ first unit of Roman Josi and Shea Weber. Having said that, Torey Krug's arrival in Boston would likely have put Ellis in the exact same roster squeeze that he finds himself in currently.
Ellis' actual draft slot: No. 11, Predators
Bruins' actual pick: Jordan Caron
26. New York Islanders: Zack Kassian, RW, Peterborough Petes (OHL)
I cringed as I made this pick, but it was low enough to justify going this way. Is Kassian the big power forward with the offensive ability he showed at the junior level, or is he just a winger who bumps bodies (and now has a well-earned bad reputation)? It's tough to tell at this point, but his upside is desirable even as he runs out of projectable runway.
Kassian's actual draft slot: No. 13, Sabres
Islanders' actual pick: N/A (Islanders traded out of the slot)
27. Carolina Hurricanes: Alex Chiasson, RW, Des Moines Buccaneers (USHL)
Chiasson has improved the rather clunky skating stride of his draft year to position himself as an emerging top-nine winger in the NHL. The 6-foot-4 former Boston University Terrier plays a straight-line power game and has exhibited an early (if somewhat streaky) goal-scoring touch in the hard areas of the ice. With Carolina in the bottom third of the 2013-14 NHL rankings in both goals per game and power-play efficiency, Chiasson’s net-first mentality would certainly be an asset.
Chiasson's actual draft slot: No. 38, Stars
Hurricanes' actual pick: Philippe Paradis
28. Chicago Blackhawks: Mattias Ekholm, D, Mora IK (Allsvenskan)
He hasn't had a big NHL season yet, but this is more of a tools pick banking on things to come with Ekholm. He's a big defender (6-foot-3, 207 pounds) who skates very well and has above-average offensive capabilities. The questions with him revolve around his defensive abilities against NHL competition. It's debatable right now, but Ekholm's work at the IIHF World Championship this spring shows what he might be capable of at the highest level.
Ekholm's actual draft slot: No. 102, Predators
Blackhawks' actual pick: Dylan Olsen
29. Detroit Red Wings: John Moore, D, Chicago Steel (USHL)
Moore has the frame (6-foot-3), skating ability and offensive instincts to be a decent, dependable fifth or sixth NHL defenseman, which is his current role with the Rangers. The bottom third of the NHL draft's first-round buffet isn’t usually stocked with too many fancy flavors, and Moore fits this plain vanilla archetype (even his name is bland). That being said, the Red Wings have been master chefs at getting the most out of very basic ingredients.
Moore's actual draft slot: No. 21, Blue Jackets
Red Wings' actual pick: Carter Ashton
30. Pittsburgh Penguins: Sami Vatanen, D, JYP Jyvaskyla (Liiga)
Vatanen is your typical small (5-foot-10, 176 pounds), ultra-talented defender who keeps proving skeptics wrong at every level. He's a fantastic skater with great intangibles and pretty good ability with the puck. As with many players with his toolkit, the ultimate issue is going to be his defensive value going forward.
Vatanen's actual draft slot: No. 106, Ducks
Penguins' actual pick: Simon Despres