This is my first full look of the season at the 2016 NHL draft class. At this point, I am not 100 percent up to speed on the entire class, but am comfortable enough with most of the top prospects to start making assessments. There is no generational talent like Connor McDavid in this year’s class, but Auston Matthews does have the look of a standard first overall pick.
Very early on, this draft class looks about average. The Canadian crop is weaker than usual, although the top 30 is still littered with Canadians, and the United States, Finland and Russia have above-average classes. There is a distinguished top three as of now, with Matthews having some separation at the top.
There are also two lightning rods in this year’s draft class. Among scouts with whom I’ve spoken, opinions on both of these players are sharply divided. One is Max Jones, an American-born power winger who played last year with the USNTDP and will play in the OHL this season. The other is Canadian defenseman Sean Day, who was the fourth player granted “exceptional” status by the CHL. I lean to the pessimistic side on both, but it’s possible that either could be top 10 selections.
1. Auston Matthews, C, ZCS (NLA)
Matthews is what you want in a projected top pick: A player who looks unique on the ice. The kind of skill plays he makes for a center his size are quite distinctive, showing elite hands, hockey sense and a high level of competitiveness. Matthews’ move to Switzerland isn’t really an issue to me. He’s a late 1997 birthdate, so he’s already played two full seasons with the USNTDP, and the scouting world has already gotten a pretty good idea of what he’s about. Also bear in mind that the NLA is a marginally tougher league than the CHL or NCAA, and he’ll be at the IIHF World Junior Championships and, most likely, the World Championships. His prospect status is at the same level as Jack Eichel coming out of the NTDP in his draft season a year ago.
2. Jesse Puljujarvi, RW, Karpat (Liiga)
Puljujarvi had one of the best 16-year-old seasons ever in Finland’s top league, up there with Aleksander Barkov's performance. He also had one of the greatest WJC performances ever by a triple under-age player. The best word to describe his game is “excitement,” because every time he’s bringing the puck up the ice, you think a goal is seconds away because of his high-end combination of size, speed and skill. Puljujarvi has a flair for the spectacular from close in and possesses a fantastic shot to finish from medium distances.
3. Jakob Chychrun, D, Sarnia (OHL)
Chychrun was one of the better defensemen in the OHL as a 16-year-old, a pretty rare feat, and was a leader very early on for his Sarnia club. He projects as a do-it-all type of defenseman, although his offensive tools -- particularly his skating and skill -- are slightly more dynamic than his defense. Chychrun is pretty aware in the defensive zone and very physical, projecting as a player who can check good opponents. He should be in the mix for Canada’s WJC team as a double underage.
4. Dante Fabbro, D, Penticton (BCHL)
Sometimes a little red light goes off in your head when guys from low-level leagues get projected very high, but with a player like Fabbro, I have no issues placing him this high. “He’s a stud,” said one NHL team's head scout. “He has no flaw in his game.” He’s a fantastic all-around defenseman, and Exhibit A was his Ivan Hlinka tournament, where he was a horse for Canada, showing plus output in every facet of the game. Fabbro has a pro-average size, combined with above-average mobility, good puck skills, and high-end hockey IQ at both ends of the rink. Fabbro has yet to announce his college commitment.
5. Chad Krys, D, USNTDP (USHL)
Krys is an all-around defenseman with plus grades or better in every area other than his size and physical game. His talents lean toward being a puck mover. He’s a fantastic skater with elite offensive IQ. Krys controls a power play with the best of them and makes a lot of offense happen while not seeming to exert a ton of effort. The question around the scouting community is how well he’ll defend in the NHL at his size, but from what I’ve seen, I think he can figure it out.
6. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, London (OHL)
The son of Keith Tkachuk will be an easy fan favorite in London and eventually with an NHL team. He brings a high level of skill and creativity to the table, but also plays with a lot of energy and does not shy away from the physical aspects of the game. Tkachuk can be the power forward that goes fearlessly to the net or pull up off a rush and make a great play. He put up huge numbers with the USNTDP last season, although he did play regularly on the same line with Auston Matthews, so take those numbers with a grain of salt.
7. Rasmus Asplund, C, Farjestad (SHL)
Asplund is a really shifty playmaker who makes offensive plays with his feet and hands, but also displays a high level of creativity and vision. Despite being undersized, he’s also a solid defensive forward. He was effective in the SHL last season and should be a noteworthy player for Farjestad in his draft season. Asplund has the potential to be an upper-half-of-the-lineup, all-situations type of prospect, and some scouts even hint he belongs in the top tier of this class.
8. Dmitri Sokolov, LW, Sudbury (OHL)
Sokolov has been a big name in the 1998 birthdate age group for a while, and not so long ago there were non-crazy propositions that he was the top prospect among the '98s. He’s teetered off a little since then, but still remains an elite prospect. He’s big and strong and has a fantastic skill level. His vision is top-end as well. I don’t think he’s a blazing fast skater, although he’s certainly above average there.
9. Tyler Benson, LW, Vancouver (WHL)
Like a lot of the top WHL prospects who were selected players as Bantams, we’ve been hearing about Benson in the scouting community for a long time. I've never watched Benson and emerged thinking he was the very best player on the ice in one area, but he does a lot of things quite well. His skating, skill, hockey IQ and two-way work ethic all stand out and make him a very reliable option for his coach. He’ll be leaned on this upcoming season by Vancouver.
10. Patrik Laine, LW, Tappara (Liiga)
Laine has been on the radar for a number of years, and as a 17-year-old who is 6-foot-4, 200 pounds, with a ton of skill, one can imagine he’ll remain there. He’s a fantastic playmaker whose high level of vision and overall instincts complement his physical gifts, making him a top-end prospect. His skating is a work in progress, though. Laine has been dinged in the past for off-ice issues, and while there are still some concerns, NHL people I’ve talked to have felt he’s shown signs of maturing.
11. Alexander Nylander, RW, Mississauga (OHL)
Nylander is a really dynamic skill player whose speed, hands, and vision all grade as plus and make him very dangerous. He’s not a small player either, although he could stand to bulk up a lot. A common question that will be posed this season is whether Alex is superior to his brother William, the Toronto prospect. My stance is no, and I believe that is the opinion of the industry, although I’ve heard a minority of scouts say they lean toward Alex.
12. Clayton Keller, LW, USNTDP (USHL)
Keller is a smaller guy, at 5-9, but his offensive skills are really exciting. His puck skills grade as plus if not better, and he complements that with very good speed and vision. Krys pushed his way on to the under-18 national team last year and played on its top six as an underage in the program. Keller also led the IIHF World Under-17 Challenge in scoring. He should be the NTDP’s leading scorer this season should he stay healthy.
13. Pierre-Luc Dubois, LW, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
Dubois had an excellent 16-year-old season in the Q, putting up nearly a point per game. His skill level doesn’t overwhelm you, but his speed and offensive creativity are certainly above average, and he combines that with a fantastic work ethic. Dubois’ hockey sense is excellent. He makes a ton of great plays to his teammates and rarely commits errors. Dubois is hard on the puck and pressures his opponents physically. He’s a potential scoring power winger.
14. Kale Clague, D, Brandon (WHL)
Are you a fan of kale? No? Well, that’s a shame, because this Kale could be a first-round pick this upcoming season. When he’s not the butt end of jokes at the dinner table, Clague is a fantastic two-way defenseman on the ice. His skating and IQ are blow-you-away traits. His puck skills aren’t fantastic, but he creates a lot of offense because of his vision and how easily he can blow by opponents.
15. Mikhail Sergachyov, D, Windsor (OHL)
Sergachyov turned a lot of heads during the 2014-15 season at international events. He was dominant at times, playing well ahead of his age group. He’s a big, mobile, tough defenseman with above-average offensive tools. His strength lies more on the power play, where he can use his physical gifts and vision to create scoring chances as the quarterback.
16. Sam Steel, C, Regina (WHL)
Steel is a very entertaining player to watch, and his skill and vision with the puck are truly high-end. He scored 54 points in 61 WHL games last season, often showing a dynamic offensive flair. He’s undersized but shows a pretty good work ethic, and he has the intangibles to overcome his height deficiency.
17. Kieffer Bellows, C, USNTDP (USHL)
Son of former No. 2 overall pick and longtime NHLer Brian Bellows, Kieffer had one of the best 16-year-old campaigns ever in the USHL when he was with Sioux Falls in 2014-15. He will play on the NTDP squad this upcoming season. He’s commonly described by NHL scouts as a powerful skill player with an elite shot. Bellows plays hard every shift, battles for pucks, and can make defensemen miss in open ice. His speed isn’t fantastic, but it’s about average as of now.
18. Julien Gauthier, RW, Val-d’Or (QMJHL)
Gauthier was very productive in his 17-year-old season (he’s a late 1997 birthdate) in the Q on a very strong offensive club. He’s a ridiculously good skater for a 6-4 forward and brings good offensive IQ to the table as well. He could be a little better off the puck, but given his raw athleticism and the unique plays he makes with the puck, one can accept that he needs some room to grow defensively.
19. Tyson Jost, C, Penticton (BCHL)
Jost, like Fabbro, is part of a rare breed of top-end prospects coming from the Canadian Jr. A ranks. Jost makes you pay attention when he takes to the ice, and his skating and playmaking get high grades. He’s not the greatest player when it comes to physical play or off-puck work, but when he gets the puck, he can be dynamic. Jost has announced his commitment to play at North Dakota next season.
20. Jake Bean, D, Calgary (WHL)
Bean’s speed and size are both average, but he projects to be a potentially dangerous offensive defenseman because of his really high level of hockey IQ. He’s so creative, has high-end vision, and knows how to get himself out of trouble very well. His defense isn’t as strong, but he’s decent, showing fine work ethic and intelligence.
21. Charlie McAvoy, D, Boston University (Hockey East)
McAvoy was really leaned on by the USNTDP in 2014-15 after both Noah Hanifin (drafted by Carolina) and Zach Werenski (selected by Columbus) left the program to play in college as 17-year-olds. He was the team’s primary puck mover, with a lot more defensive responsibility thrown to him. His mobility is above-average, with his best offensive trait being his vision and offensive IQ. McAvoy’s defense isn’t a huge hole, but at times he’ll make errors in his angles and reads.
22. Brett Howden, C, Moose Jaw (WHL)
A very versatile forward, Howden was one of the top players for Moose Jaw this past season. He’s a great skater, particularly given he has pro-average size. Howden projects as a very quality defensive forward, given his athleticism and work ethic. He can create offense at above-average levels, too, showing solid puck skills and ability to get the puck to the high-percentage areas.
23. Carl Grundstrom, RW, Modo (SHL)
Grundstrom lit up the Swedish junior league last season, earning a full-time -- albeit limited -- shift with Modo at the SHL level. He’s a highly skilled and entertaining player who can beat opponents with speed, creativity and vision. Grundstrom isn’t the biggest or bulkiest guy, but he’s shown he can be quite capable defensively, being used fairly often as a penalty killer because of his speed and IQ.
24. Libor Hajek, D, Saskatoon (WHL)
Hajek’s been a top name in the Czech program for a number of years, and in 2014-15, he even played 17 games in their top pro league, the most ever in that league for a 16-year-old defenseman. Hajek is a fantastic skater who plays an aggressive two-way game. He shows no hesitance to join the rush and look like a forward some shifts, but can also shift to being a steady defensive player, too.
25. Max Jones, LW, London (OHL)
Among scouts I talk to, the divide on Jones is extremely wide, with some advocating him firmly in the top seven, if not the top five, and others saying he is a late first-rounder at best. His play reflects that division. There are times when Jones looks like a potential star -- a big man with an elite physical game, good skill and a big league shot. He showed these attributes when he dominated the IIHF Under-17 Challenge. However, he's also gotten his team into trouble with many unnecessary penalties, iffy decision-making with the puck and poor off-puck play.
26. Olli Juolevi, D, London (OHL)
Juolevi had one of the best seasons ever by a 16-year-old defenseman in the Finnish junior league. He’s not going to show off end-to-end rushes every game, but he got a ton of points because of his fantastic hockey sense. He certainly has tools -- he skates and handles the puck pretty well, in particular -- but his best attribute might be that he understands the game at both ends very well.
27. Michael McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL)
McLeod is a former high pick in the OHL, going fifth overall to Mississauga, and while the team as a whole has struggled lately, I’ve got a good feeling about his NHL chances after watching him quite a bit. He’s a great skater with skill, size, vision and a quality defensive game to boot. All the tools that are needed to play in the middle of an NHL line up one day are there.
28. Jordan Kyrou, RW, Sarnia (OHL)
Kyrou’s numbers as a 16-year-old this past season weren’t gaudy, nor does he have a ton of accolades, but I have a good feeling about him from what I’ve seen. He has the talent in terms of his speed and puck skills to make a lot of offensive plays. However, I also like how he works hard to win pucks despite his size limitations.
29. Samuel Girard, D, Shawinigan (QMJHL)
Defensemen that stand 5-10 often make people queasy in the top 30, but Girard has shown such a high level of offensive tools that he’s merited discussion in that range. His defense isn’t great, and he doesn’t project as a top-end penalty killer by any means, although he could have average defensive value. However, his skating/skill combo is fantastic, and when you need someone to make a play off the rush or on the power play, he’ll be looked to as a primary option.
30. Sean Day, D, Mississauga (OHL)
Day is well known for his entry into the OHL as a 15-year-old, the fourth ever player given "exceptional" status, after John Tavares, Aaron Ekblad and Connor McDavid, all of whom went No. 1 in their drafts. To date, however, Day’s play on the ice has been pretty good but not at the level of the aforementioned players during their OHL days. His skating is insane for a player his size, and he has a good skill level, but his hockey sense doesn’t show at a very high level; he’s too prone to turnovers and defensive miscues. Day was cut from Canada’s Ivan Hlinka under-18 team a few weeks ago after a sub-par camp and coming in roughly 20-30 pounds overweight.
Honorable mentions (alphabetical order):
Vitali Abramov, LW, Gatineau (QMJHL)
Logan Brown, C Windsor (OHL)
Alex DeBrincat, RW, Erie (OHL)
Luke Green, D, Saint John (QMJHL)
Markus Niemelainen, D, Saginaw (OHL)
Alexander Yakovenko, D, Team Russia under-18 (MHL)