One of the most common requests I field throughout the year is asking where particular prospects from the current draft class rate against past years’ prospects. This can be a fun exercise, but it is also important for the readers. The top of the class tends to be where the biggest gaps are year to year, and it is not always evident where a player ranked No. 2 or No. 3 overall one year would place in other classes, which can change the perception of his value. This paints a clearer picture.
Some caveats:
• This is not how I currently evaluate the players (for example, Jonathan Drouin and Hunter Shinkaruk would be ranked lower, and Sean Monahan higher). The purpose of this column is to discuss the prospects as of the evaluation point when they were about to be drafted.
• Hindsight analysis can at times induce bias, but I did my best to stay honest, while also accounting for changes in my ranking philosophies. For example, last year I tweaked my methodology to value defensive play more, while this year, I’ve given more value to players with late birth dates who I may have scrutinized too much in past seasons.
With all of that in mind, here are the top 30 draft prospects of the past three years. Included for each player is his draft position (for the 2013 and 2014 classes) or his rank in my current top 100, for members of the 2015 class:
1. Connor McDavid
C, Erie (OHL)
Ranked No. 1, 2015
I did this for the past three years, but to answer the question everyone asks me, I would have rated Sidney Crosby as a draft prospect slightly higher than McDavid as a draft prospect. McDavid is in the same conversation with Sid, John Tavares and Eric Lindros as the top prospect of recent history.
C, Halifax (QMJHL)
Selected No. 1 overall, 2013 (Colorado Avalanche)
I already see the fingers typing away for two reasons: first, having Jack Eichel rated third overall on this list, and second, the fact that MacKinnon was rated second behind Drouin in my 2013 rankings. The issue of birth date I raise in the intro addresses both of these points. To wit, MacKinnon was a week away from being a member of the 2014 draft class. Thinking about it this way, you need to compare where MacKinnon was entering the 2013 draft to where Eichel was in the 2014 draft, as Eichel is a full year older entering his draft than MacKinnon was.
Put another way, MacKinnon was finishing up his Calder Trophy-winning season at the same age Eichel is right now. With that in mind, MacKinnon gets the slight nod here.
3. Jack Eichel
C, Boston University (Hockey East)
Ranked No. 2, 2015
I reject the argument that Eichel is a “generational” prospect, which is a term I’ve heard frequently; rather, he’d be a good first overall pick in most other classes. The horror! His college season was truly unique, but it’s also unique in that in the post-2005 CBA era we don’t see top draft prospects get selected out of college anymore -- unless, like Eichel, they have a late birth date that pushes their draft year back. Again, this is a close debate between Eichel and MacKinnon, but the age factors push the latter ahead.
4. Jonathan Drouin
LW, Halifax (QMJHL)
Selected No. 3 overall, 2013 (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Drouin has been good but not great in the NHL, showing his body still needs more bulk as he acclimates to the physical climate. However, as a draft prospect, Drouin was incredible, having a unique season in the QMJHL and in international play, and making a great case to be the top prospect in his class.
5. Seth Jones
D, Portland (WHL)
Selected No. 4 overall, 2013 (Nashville Predators)
Jones looked very unique as a defenseman prospect, with his elite combination of size, skating, skill and hockey sense. The gap in positional value is what kept him from going higher, because on pure talent, he was right up there with the likes of MacKinnon and Drouin in his draft year, if not arguably ahead.
6. Aaron Ekblad
D, Barrie (OHL)
Selected No. 1 overall, 2014 (Florida Panthers)
Ekblad was a somewhat “soft” No. 1 pick in 2014, which was mostly due to the fact the forward group in 2014 lacked a dynamic type of prospect. Ekblad was still an extremely good prospect, as No. 6 overall on this list ain't too shabby. His rookie season was obviously incredible, given his age, and he’s going to be a cornerstone on defense for the Panthers.
In terms of Ekblad vs. Jones, Seth has always had a slightly more exciting offensive element, even if Ekblad has looked a little more solid defensively.
C, Tappara (Liiga)
Selected No. 2 overall, 2013 (Florida Panthers)
Like MacKinnon, Barkov was an extremely young prospect, a full year younger than Eichel, Jones and Sam Reinhart when they were entering the draft. At that point, Barkov was a dominant two-way player in a top European men’s league. He never showed truly elite offensive skills -- to the level of players like MacKinnon or Drouin -- which caused some hedging, but he projected as a very reliable, top-six guy, and the early returns on his NHL work don't derail that notion.
8. Sam Reinhart
C, Kootenay (WHL)
Selected No. 2 overall, 2014 (Buffalo Sabres)
I'm set to hear the cries of "revisionist" again here, as I had Reinhart ranked fourth overall in his draft year; that was a mistake, and one I didn’t correct until the past two months, when I amended how harsh I was being on late birth-date players. If you isolate just the skills -- truly elite two-way hockey sense, great hands, great pace and work ethic -- he is a top-of-the-line prospect. He was not a dominant prospect like MacKinnon or Drouin, but I shouldn’t have held him to such a high standard, given that in terms of physical development, he was only months away from younger top prospects.
RW, Traktor Chelyabinsk (KHL)
Selected No. 10 overall, 2013 (Dallas Stars)
Big Val was a Big Deal in his draft season (sorry I had to), and slid to 10th overall due to his transfer issues. I had talked to scouts who said at the time of his draft that they would have had him in the discussion in the top three, and I’ve heard some suggest he could've been first overall over MacKinnon. I did not share that optimistic view, but he was obviously a great prospect as a huge player with elite speed and high-end puck skills. His power forward potential was quite unique.
10. Sam Bennett
C, Kingston (OHL)
Selected No. 4 overall, 2014 (Calgary Flames)
Bennett was a real "do everything" kind of prospect in his draft season. He’s a high-end skater and puck handler, with great two-way hockey sense and work ethic. Bennett showed off some of those attributes during the Flames' run in the 2015 Stanley Cup playoffs. He was impressive (when healthy) in the OHL this season (24 points in 11 games), and had a great Ivan Hlinka tournament, as well.
11. Mitch Marner
C, London (OHL)
Ranked No. 3, 2015
Marner’s production has been among the very best by an under-18 OHLer in the past decade by a non-McDavid prospect. He doesn’t have the all-around game of Bennett, which bumps him below the current Flame, but offensively, you have an elite puck skills/offensive IQ player with great skating and determination. His size works against him, though.
12. Dylan Strome
C, Erie (OHL)
Ranked No. 4, 2015
There’s a lot of back-and-forth about Strome because of the fact that McDavid is his teammate, but he was very good in his own right when not playing on the same line, as well as during the stretch when McDavid was out injured. Strome has the unique qualities of a big, extremely skilled center that make him worthy of being in this elite discussion. Skating and rounding out his game will be key, but he has a great talent base already.
13. Elias Lindholm
C, Brynas (SHL)
Selected No. 5 overall, 2013 (Carolina Hurricanes)
Lindholm’s been solid, but not amazing as an NHLer so far. As a prospect, he looked phenomenal -- I had heard from folks working for multiple NHL teams who had advocated for him in their top 3 -- as his production in the SHL was insane for a player of his age (30 points in 48 games in his draft season). Lindholm is a very skilled playmaker with good work ethic, and seemed to be trending up significantly. The physical transition and pace of the game have been an adjustment for him in the NHL, but his usage was on the rise as the 2014-15 season progressed.
14. Noah Hanifin
D, Boston College (Hockey East)
Ranked No. 5, 2015
I’ve talked to NHL scouts who view Hanifin as the same level of prospect as Ekblad was entering his draft season. I’m not entirely buying that line of thinking, as Ekblad is a bit of a physical freak with elite hockey sense, but Hanifin is a more explosive player with his skating and puck skills. I think his adjustment to the pro game will be a little bumpier, and thus slightly more risk is attached to his projection.
15. Sean Monahan
C, Ottawa (OHL)
Selected No. 6 overall, 2013 (Calgary Flames)
Monahan has looked incredible in the NHL, and is a real cornerstone for the Flames. In the OHL, he was very good, and a dominant two-way center, but there were some questions as to whether he would be a dynamic offensive player in terms of speed and creativity to be a top-five pick. He’s obviously put those issues to rest.
16. William Nylander
LW, MODO (SHL)
Selected No. 8 overall, 2014 (Toronto Maple Leafs)
Nylander’s draft season was inconsistent, and there were reasonable arguments to have him in the top four, or later in the top 10. I leaned to the former based on the high-end upside, and we saw flashes of that this season with very impressive SHL and AHL performances. His size, frame and off-puck play have worked against him, but Nylander’s a scoring-chance machine.
17. Leon Draisaitl
C, Prince Albert (WHL)
Selected No. 3 overall, 2014 (Edmonton Oilers)
I wasn’t as high on Draisaitl as the Oilers were on draft day, but he still showed some extremely intriguing offensive qualities. He’s one of the most impressive passers I’ve seen during the past few years, and possesses a big body and great hands. His skating and defense did need some work (and still do), although his speed has shown notable improvement. Again, as with Reinhart, I have a more optimistic view of Draisaitl now than I did at the draft, due to recalibrating how I view late birth-date players.
18. Nikolaj Ehlers
LW, Halifax (QMJHL)
Selected No. 9 overall, 2014 (Winnipeg Jets)
Ehlers was simply outstanding last season in the QMJHL, tearing up the league with scoring chances left and right. There were some discussions as to whether Drouin “made” Ehlers while both were playing with Halifax, but Ehlers deflated those critiques with an even more dominant season in 2014-15 (without Drouin). His speed and skill are elite, although his frame is not ideal.
19. Hunter Shinkaruk
LW, Medicine Hat (WHL)
Selected No. 24 overall, 2013 (Vancouver Canucks)
Shinkaruk has had a real bumpy ride since his draft season, between a significant injury and a rough transition to the pro game. As a draft prospect, he looked outstanding. His skill is really high-end, and he thinks the game well; he’s not overly fast, but he's a very shifty skater who is good in tight spaces. The main critiques on him were his off-puck play and his frame, both of which have proved to be issues in the pro game. I would make the same call again though, because history shows a player with his talent level tends to boom more than bust.
20. Kevin Fiala
LW, HV71 (SHL)
Selected No. 11 overall, 2014 (Nashville Predators)
Fiala won me over in the second half of his draft season, having one of the best three- to four-month runs by a draft prospect. He was great in the SHL as an under-18 player, and held his own at the world championships. This season, Fiala played very well in the SHL and the AHL, and got a cup of coffee with the Predators, as well. His skill and vision are great, and he’s an impressive skater who can finish.
21. Mathew Barzal
C, Seattle (WHL)
Ranked No. 6, 2015
Barzal is a really interesting prospect because of the injury that happened in the middle of the season. I think there’s a reasonable argument for his being the No. 10 or 11 prospect in the 2015 draft class -- or for his being as high as third overall. There’s that kind of uncertainty because he’s just so dynamic offensively, but we also don’t have a ton of information this season from him. He was electric at the U18 championships, with his skating, puck skills and offensive IQ on display.
22. Michael Dal Colle
LW, Oshawa (OHL)
Selected No. 5 overall, 2014 (New York Islanders)
I wasn’t as high on Dal Colle as the industry was entering the draft, but he was obviously a top-10 guy, due to a very high level of skill and hockey IQ combined with a big frame. I’ve never loved his skating (some NHL evaluators disagree with me on that point) and he needs to improve his off-puck game. His production in the OHL has been very impressive.
23. Travis Konecny
C, Ottawa (OHL)
Ranked No. 7, 2015
Konecny’s counting stats aren’t too flashy, but there is so much about him as a prospect that makes you think he has a chance to be a very good NHL player. He’s an electric skater with great hands, very good hockey sense and a killer work ethic as well. He’s been a top prospect for years, and has all the ability you want, although he brings some injury history, too.
24. Zach Werenski
D, Michigan (Big Ten)
Ranked No. 8, 2015
Like Hanifin, Werenski had a very interesting season playing college hockey as an 18-year-old at the top of a top program's lineup. On many nights, he was the Wolverines' best defenseman. He’s a very mobile puck mover, and while not amazing defensively, he does well enough in that end due to great hockey sense.
D, TPS (Liiga)
Selected No. 8 overall, 2013 (Buffalo Sabres)
As a draft prospect, Ristolainen had already played in two World Junior Championships for Finland, and was a dominant defenseman in Finland’s top league at times, particularly in the second half of his draft season. He showed a great all-around tool kit, which is why I rated him highly. His game has been a little bumpy in the NHL, but he’s showed well at times, and certainly seems to be tracking well overall.
26. Evgeni Svechnikov
LW, Cape Breton (QMJHL)
Ranked No. 9, 2015
Svechnikov is a guy who has really divided opinions around the industry. If he hadn't been cut by the Russian World Junior team (which was oddly based on two pre-tournament games), the consensus would be tighter. He’s big, has great skill, creativity and scored a ton in the QMJHL this season. He also played three KHL games last season.
27. Lawson Crouse
LW, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL)
Ranked No. 10, 2015
Crouse has been a controversial player this season due to his lack of production, which causes me to hedge a little on his projection. However, it’s hard to ignore some of the great positives of his game. He’s a great skater, with impressive hockey sense and an elite physical game. At issue is whether that type of player is worthy of a top-10 pick.
28. Kasperi Kapanen
RW, KalPa (Liiga)
Selected No. 22 overall, 2014 (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Kapanen didn’t produce a ton in the Liiga or at the U18 championships in his draft season, but he was a top guy on my board based on a qualitative evaluation. His skating and puck skills are dynamic, and based on recent viewings, he appears to be continuously improving in both areas. He needs to get his nose a little dirtier, and put on a lot of bulk to make a real push for NHL time.
29. Nick Ritchie
LW, Peterborough Petes (OHL)
Selected No. 10 overall, 2014 (Anaheim Ducks)
I slightly underrated Ritchie in his draft season, again due to the late birth-date issue as discussed above. I had him rated more as a middle-of-the-first-round pick, when I probably should have slotted him closer to No. 10, where he was selected by Anaheim. He has a large, strong frame, very good speed, good raw skill and a top-end shot.
30. Max Domi
C, London Knights (OHL)
Selected No. 12 overall, 2013 (Phoenix Coyotes)
Domi was an electric offensive player in his draft season, as his skill, hockey IQ and skating really stood out. The concerns with him were his size and defensive play, even though he certainly played with an edge. The defensive play has improved a lot since he was 17, which is why I think he’d go higher in a redraft of his class, since he can both kill penalties and dominate offensively now.
The Auston Matthews question
A question I'm often asked is where next year's projected No. 1 overall pick Auston Matthews fits into this mix of top prospects of recent years. From my own evaluation, and discussions with people around USA Hockey, it's a coin flip between Matthews and Eichel. So, I'd slot him at No. 3 or 4 on this list.
Based on Eichel's ridiculous draft-eligible season, I would lean towards him instead of Matthews right now; but, if we're asking which player was more impressive at Matthews' current age, I would lean Matthews.