Continuing a series we've run for the 2008 draft and the 2009 draft, we're going back five years to see how differently the first round of the NHL draft would play out if GMs had the benefit of 100 percent accurate foresight as to how draft prospects would pan out. We've tasked our prospect analyst Corey Pronman with going through a redraft of the 2010 first round.
Redrafts can be a fun exercise, but they also can help fans put in context the value of a draft pick and the variance of outcomes one can expect in a given draft class. It also shows a realistic portrayal of how many good NHLers one can expect to come from a given draft class.
This is a pure ranking of the top 30 players out of the draft class, and no team needs now or at the time are taken into account. Note that Alexander Burmistrov -- a top-10 pick in 2010 -- was not included because this is a ranking of players a team would want in an NHL organization tomorrow; Burmistrov is currently signed in the KHL, and he hasn’t been too impressive overseas, either.
1. Edmonton Oilers: Tyler Seguin, C, Plymouth (OHL)
I don’t think this call is clear, but I have a moderate lean toward Seguin as the best player from this class. I do think Edmonton made the correct call, given the information at the time, in taking Taylor Hall first. Seguin is a dynamic playmaker and scorer. His skating, skill, shot and vision all get high grades.
Seguin’s actual draft slot: Bruins at No. 2
Oilers’ actual pick: Taylor Hall
2. Boston Bruins: Taylor Hall, LW, Windsor (OHL)
Injuries haven’t helped Hall’s case, but not too long ago, he was one of the very top scorers in the league. The Kingston Cannonball is an exceptional skater who plays a fearless brand of hockey, and he couples that effort with a high level of skill. I thought he’d be a more prolific goal scorer, based on his OHL work, though he has obviously been very good in that area in the NHL.
Hall’s actual draft slot: Oilers at No. 1
Bruins’ actual pick: Tyler Seguin
3. Florida Panthers: Ryan Johansen, C, Portland (WHL)
Johansen is a beast. He’s a 6-foot-3 center with a developed frame who is strong on the puck and also brings an impressive amount of offensive ability. When you add that he can defend and play against good forwards, you have the dream scenario for the “big No. 1 center” every team craves. The difference between a player such as Johansen and the player Florida actually took in Erik Gudbranson, who has been a fine third-pairing defender, is obviously massive.
Johansen’s actual draft slot: Blue Jackets at No. 4
Panthers’ pick: Erik Gudbranson
4. Columbus Blue Jackets: Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, Sibir Novosibirsk (KHL)
Tarasenko had his big breakout in 2014-15, when he was among the top scorers in the NHL. He is not the biggest player in the world, but he’s sneaky strong in puck battles and in maintaining possession. He is very skilled and can finish with the best of them. Tarasenko hasn’t been leaned on too much as a defensive asset, but I think he has more to give in that area, and he'll likely get up to a 19-20 minutes-per-night player.
Tarasenko’s actual draft slot: Blues at No. 16
Blue Jackets’ actual pick: Ryan Johansen
5. New York Islanders: Cam Fowler, D, Windsor (OHL)
Fowler’s slide to 12th overall in 2010 was dumbfounding. In fact, Anaheim didn’t think he would be available and didn’t make a jersey for him to put on at the draft, as teams typically do. He was always praised for his great skating and offensive abilities, but his physical effort and defense left some wondering. He stepped into the league months later as a 22 minutes-per-night player. He logged tough defensive minutes this season and was a regular in the penalty-killing rotation for a top NHL team. Fowler was just a complete whiff by the industry. The Islanders would love that top-pairing defenseman to add to their team now as well.
Fowler’s actual draft slot: Ducks at No. 12
Islanders’ actual pick: Nino Niederreiter
6. Tampa Bay Lightning: Jaden Schwartz, LW, Tri-City (USHL)
Schwartz was one of the most productive under-18 players to play in the USHL, and he didn’t play on the US National Team, which also plays in that league. He has emerged as a legitimate top-line forward due to his high-end puck skills and elite offensive hockey sense. His skating has always been a knock, but he is very agile and shifty, which allows him to not get hit much and limit his liability. Also, if you added Schwartz to the current Lightning forward group, the new goal for opponents would be limiting them to five goals per game.
Schwartz’s actual draft slot: Blues at No. 14
Lightning’s actual pick: Brett Connolly
7. Carolina Hurricanes: Justin Faulk, D, USNTDP (USHL)
Faulk won’t need to pack any bags in this re-draft. This wasn’t done on purpose (I merely rank the players and insert the team names)! There were a number of people in the industry surprised Faulk slid to the second round. Sure, he wasn’t the biggest or the most blazing skater, but he is skilled and very smart, has a cannon from the point and has always been very effective in puck battles. He stepped into the NHL as a teenager as one of Carolina’s best defensemen and hasn’t looked back.
Faulk’s actual draft slot: Hurricanes at No. 37
Hurricanes’ actual pick: Jeff Skinner
8. Atlanta Thrashers: Mikael Granlund, C, HIFK (Liiga)
Granlund’s point production hasn’t been as gaudy as I would've thought it would be when he was a prospect, but he has still been a productive, high-minutes center on a good team. His skill and hockey IQ are among the best in the Western Conference, but he’s small and is not an explosive player.
Granlund’s actual draft slot: Wild at No. 9
Thrashers’ actual pick: Alexander Burmistrov
9. Minnesota Wild: Jeff Skinner, C, Kitchener (OHL)
Skinner looked like a potential world-killer as a rookie back in 2010-11, but injuries and stalled development have seen him level off instead of advancing at the pace he was going as a teenager. He still remains a very good player, and I think he’ll bounce back from underwhelming point totals this upcoming season.
Skinner’s actual draft slot: Hurricanes at No. 7
Wild’s actual pick: Mikael Granlund
10. New York Rangers: Mark Stone, RW, Brandon (WHL)
When Stone was a prospect, he was seen as a player with talent but slow feet, then he got hurt in his draft season and fell to the sixth round. The year after, he progressed well, and one year after that, he emerged as a true top prospect. Stone is big, has very good hands and hockey IQ, can finish and has really improved his defense. His feet haven’t come along too much, but as a Calder Trophy finalist this season, he has shown he can play at the top of an NHL lineup.
Stone’s actual draft slot: Senators at No. 178
Rangers’ actual pick: Dylan McIlrath
11. Dallas Stars: John Klingberg, D, Frolunda (J20 SuperElit)
As with Faulk, this was not done intentionally, but Klingberg remains with his current team. I was a Klingberg skeptic when he was a prospect. He showed great moments offensively, due to his skating and puck skills, but his decision-making and defensive play were often a mess in his teenage years. Never judge people by their actions as a teenager! Klingberg’s defensive play took giant leaps forward in his early 20s. He is no shutdown defenseman -- still much more of a scorer -- but he is more calculating in his risks, which allowed him to be Dallas’ best defenseman at times this season.
Kingberg’s actual draft slot: Stars at No. 131
Stars’ actual pick: Jack Campbell
12. Anaheim Ducks: Brendan Gallagher, RW, Vancouver (WHL)
When Gallagher was a draft prospect, he was a skilled, feisty little guy, but his skating wasn’t superb -- an issue for such a small forward. He continued to develop well, and around age 18 or 19, he emerged as a legitimate prospect. Gallagher’s performance in the NHL has shown Habs fans his skill, incredible intangibles and finishing skills.
Gallagher’s actual draft slot: Canadiens at No. 147
Ducks’ actual pick: Cam Fowler
13. Phoenix Coyotes: Nick Bjugstad, C, Blaine High School (Minn.)
Bjugstad is part of a dying breed -- a first-round pick out of a U.S. high school, as more of those prospects have been opting for the USHL over staying in a prep program. He is a very big man who can skate, handle the puck and score. Right now, he is more of a scorer than a checker, but he is not incompetent defensively and is a legit top-six forward. Playing as a member of Arizona’s disastrous forward group, he’d probably be playing 25 minutes per game.
Bjugstad’s actual draft slot: Panthers at No. 19
Coyotes’ actual pick: Brandon Gormley
14. St. Louis Blues: Tyler Toffoli, RW, Ottawa (OHL)
Toffoli’s ice time hasn’t been too high, in part due to the Kings' great forward group, but he has been productive in spite of that. He is very skilled and creative offensively, with the ability to score from middle-distance in. His skating and lack of defensive skills scared teams during his draft year, and those aspects haven’t taken huge leaps forward, but they've progressed enough that he can play a regular shift due to his great offensive instincts.
Toffoli’s actual draft slot: Kings at No. 47
Blues’ actual pick: Jaden Schwartz
15. Los Angeles Kings: Brock Nelson, C, Warroad High School (Minn.)
Nelson had a breakout this season, scoring 20 goals for the Islanders. He’s a big center with skill who thinks the game well, can finish and is strong on the puck, even if he’s not the meanest type of player. His defense isn’t a standout attribute, but he chipped in a little on the PK this season. In the long term, he projects as an all-situations center who will be a consistent fixture in an upper half of a lineup.
Nelson’s actual draft slot: Islanders at No. 30
Kings’ actual pick: Derek Forbort
16. St. Louis Blues: Frederik Andersen, G, Frederikshavn (Bank Ligaen)
When Andersen was first drafted in 2010, he did not come to an agreement with Carolina and was redrafted by the Ducks after re-entering the pool. He was a little out of shape at the time, which hurt his lateral movement. Skills-wise, he has always been a big, smart, technically sound goalie, and with improved attention to his strength and diet, he has become a very quality starting NHL goaltender. Exactly what the Blues need!
Anderson’s actual draft slot: Hurricanes at No. 187, Ducks at No. 87 in 2012
Blues’ actual pick: Vladimir Tarasenko
17. Colorado Avalanche: Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Traktor Chelyabinsk (KHL)
Kuzya has been a tough guy to read this season. The beginning of his NHL career was bumpy -- dating back to the end of his KHL stint -- but he showed a lot of improvements in the second half of the regular season and into the postseason. His speed and skill are very high-end, and one imagines he could solidify himself as a top-six forward next season. If he bulks up and maintains the play he showed the past month, he could even be a top-tier player, but let's take one step at a time.
Kuznetsov’s actual draft slot: Capitals at No. 26
Avalanche’s actual pick: Joey Hishon
18. Nashville Predators: Nino Niederreiter, LW, Portland (WHL)
El Nino (I have heard professional hockey executives refer to him like that with a straight face) has gotten on track after issues with his development while with the Islanders. It’s fair to say the fifth overall pick has not shown as much offense as was hoped at this time five years ago. He could add more speed to his game in terms of lower-body bursts, as well as the quickness of his reads. However, when he is on his game, Nino is a legit power forward with skill who can finish.
Niederreiter’s actual draft slot: Islander at No. 5
Predators’ actual pick: Austin Watson
19. Florida Panthers: Riley Sheahan, C, Notre Dame (CCHA)
Sheahan has always been a steady performer but has also left the impression that he had more to give. He’s a fine two-way forward and will give you odd flashes of impressive offensive creativity. The consistency isn’t always there, but the skill set leaves the impression that he could be a good top-six forward. Otherwise, he's a middle-of-the-lineup guy with size who can chip in during all situations. That's not a bad thing.
Sheahan’s actual draft slot: Red Wings at No. 21
Panthers’ actual pick: Nick Bjugstad
20. Pittsburgh Penguins: Kevin Hayes, LW, Noble and Greenough School (Mass.)
For his first few years after being drafted, it was questionable where Hayes ranked as a prospect. You saw a big man who could skate with skill, but his consistency, physical game and hockey sense were red flags. Toward the end of his collegiate career and into the NHL, he has become better in using his big frame to maintain possession, and he is also playing a quicker game. He’s not the most well-rounded player, but his offensive gifts are very valuable.
Hayes’ actual draft slot: Blackhawks at No. 24
Penguins’ actual pick: Beau Bennett
21. Detroit Red Wings: Charlie Coyle, RW, South Shore (EJHL)
Coyle’s NHL development has had its up and downs. He’s a big man with skill and creativity, but pace, decision-making and consistency have been problems for him. There is a lot to like about him as a player, even if he hasn’t taken that giant leap forward yet as an NHLer. One imagines in the near future that he will be the kind of player who clears 40-45 points regularly.
Coyle’s actual draft slot: Sharks at No. 28
Red Wings’ actual pick: Riley Sheahan
22. Montreal Canadiens: Jason Zucker, LW, USNTDP (USHL)
Zucker was really impressive as a draft prospect, and it was a bit surprising to see him get to 59th overall, likely due to his size. He is a great skater, has a big-time shot, works hard, can kill penalties and has good puck skills. His vision and overall hockey IQ are not great (and his goals-to-assist ratio is hilarious), but he could be a long-term top-six forward.
Zucker’s actual draft slot: Wild at No. 59
Canadiens’ actual pick: Jarred Tinordi
23. Buffalo Sabres: Jon Merrill, D, USNTDP (USHL)
During his time as a prospect, Merrill had a number of red flags pop up due to off-ice issues, and injuries compounded the worries about him. He has seemed to put that behind him and has been a roughly average NHL defenseman so far. Merrill is a very intelligent defenseman and can at times look dull, but he can make plays at both ends of the rink.
Merrill’s actual draft slot: Devils at No. 38
Sabres’ actual pick: Mark Pysyk
24. Chicago Blackhawks: Ryan Spooner, C, Peterborough (OHL)
Spooner finally broke through for an NHL job this season. He is small and a defensive liability, but he’s really fun to watch with the puck. He is an agile and explosive skater who sees the ice very well and has great coordination. If he can maintain what we saw in half an NHL season, this could be a really nice return on a second-round pick.
Spooner’s actual draft slot: Bruins at No. 45
Blackhawk’s actual pick: Kevin Hayes
25. Florida Panthers: Petr Mrazek, G, Ottawa (OHL)
Mrazek waited a while for his NHL opportunity, which came this season and carried over into the playoffs. He is a very athletic goaltender, who is exciting to watch due to the high-difficulty saves he makes with regularity. He can get a little too excited and out of position at times, but overall, he shows the hockey IQ to make both the routine and tough saves effectively.
Mrazek’s actual draft slot: Red Wings at No. 141
Panthers’ actual pick: Quinton Howden
26. Washington Capitals: Erik Gudbranson, D, Kingston (OHL)
If you ask me to dig real deep, I still see the great athletic qualities that made Gudbranson so appealing as a teenager, and I could envision some sort of scenario in which he turns a corner in his mid-20s. He is big, physical and a great skater with a big shot and some skill. However, his hockey sense is just plain bad, and his puck abilities are not great enough to help him overcome that. If he ever catches up to the NHL pace, he could be a good defenseman, but the clock is ticking on the former third-overall pick.
Gudbranson’s actual draft slot: Panthers at No. 3
Capital’s actual pick: Evgeny Kuznetsov
27. Phoenix Coyotes: Devante Smith-Pelly, RW, Mississauga (OHL)
I wasn’t a huge Smith-Pelly fan when he was a prospect, but he impressed more as he got older. He has yet to really hit his stride in the NHL, but at his best, he is a physical two-way forward with enough skill to be a league-average offensive player. It remains to be seen if his hockey sense is at a high enough level for him to consistently be that type of player.
Smith-Pelly’s actual draft slot: Ducks at No. 42
Coyotes’ actual pick: Mark Visentin
28. San Jose Sharks: Brett Connolly, RW, Prince George (WHL)
All the tools are there for the former sixth selection. He has size and is a great skater who can make all kinds of offensive plays. However, his work ethic to win those tough battles and get to every puck isn’t always there, and he definitely isn’t much of a defensive asset, either. If it ever clicks, he’s got the tools to score.
Connolly’s actual draft slot: Lightning at No. 6
Sharks’ actual pick: Charlie Coyle
29. Anaheim Ducks: Calle Jarnkrok, C, Brynas (SHL)
Jarnkrok’s first full season in the NHL was bumpy after he showed well in a brief stint the previous season. Physical development is the key issue with Jarnkrok, because in terms of puck skills, vision and creativity, he gets plus grades. If he can work on his game off the puck, he could be a solid middle-of-the-group forward who can score.
Jarnkrok’s actual draft slot: Red Wings at No. 51
Ducks’ actual pick: Emerson Etem
30. New York Islanders: Teemu Pulkkinen, RW, Jokerit (Liiga)
I’m going out on a limb with this one because there are a few other low-ceiling players who have established themselves as NHL regulars, while Pulkkinen has not. However, in Detroit’s ever persistent, patient approach to prospect development, Pulkkinen has been very impressive the past 12-18 months. He is very skilled, has an elite shot and has improved his skating. He could be due for a breakout in 2015-16 (if he gets a legitimate chance with the big club).
Pulkkinen’s actual draft slot: Red Wings at No. 111
Islanders’ actual pick: Brock Nelson