With the 2013 NHL draft fast approaching, it's always interesting to get some perspective on how a draft class can end up doing, even five years down the road. The following is a redraft of the 2008 NHL draft class based on my evaluations of the players on a value basis and not taking into account team need at the time or now.
The focus is on what a player has done in his NHL career and, most importantly, what he can do in the future. As a rule, I'm typically cool on goaltenders, which is explained more in detail here.
1. Tampa Bay Lightning, C Steven Stamkos, Sarnia (OHL)
Tampa made the right call at No. 1, as Stamkos is an exceptionally gifted offensive player who may end up being one of the greatest -- if not the best -- goal scorers of his generation. He's the true franchise center teams envision when selecting first overall, with the tools to be an elite player in the NHL for years going forward.
2. Los Angeles Kings, D Drew Doughty, Guelph (OHL)
The top two picks from 2008 remain unchanged, but this spot has more debate. There are legitimate arguments for Doughty, Erik Karlsson and Alex Pietrangelo to be ranked No. 2. Doughty was great from the second he stepped into the NHL as a rookie and has all the qualities you want in an elite defenseman.
3. Winnipeg Jets (then Atlanta), D Erik Karlsson, Frolunda (SWE)
Karlsson's skating and ability with the puck are elite, and the pure offensive upside he brings from the back end is second to none in the NHL. He's a tad small and won't be a high-end defender, but he's progressed well in his own end to where he can effectively log tough minutes and still be a force as one of the league's best defensemen.
Winnipeg's original pick: D Zach Bogosian
Where Karlsson was picked: 15th overall (1st round, Ottawa)
4. St. Louis Blues, D Alex Pietrangelo, Niagara (OHL)
Pietrangelo is a true No. 1 defenseman. He's a player with above average size who shuts down the opposition's best players, provides high-end puck moving and gives overall offensive ability from the back end. St. Louis certainly made a great selection at No. 4, as Pietrangelo has all the looks of a star defenseman in the NHL for a while.
5. Toronto Maple Leafs, C Derek Stepan, Shattuck St. Mary's (U.S. HS)
All Stepan has ever done is produce. He ranked No. 2 in 2009-10 in NCAA scoring, led the 2010 World Junior Championships in scoring, was a top player at the 2011 World Championships and emerged as a top-tier NHL center this year. He faced tough opponents, played in every situation for the Rangers and excelled. He has significant playmaking ability with the puck.
Toronto's original pick: D Luke Schenn
Where Stepan was picked: 51st overall (2nd round, N.Y. Rangers)
6. Columbus Blue Jackets, W Jordan Eberle, Regina (WHL)
Eberle has shown the form of a top-line scoring forward and still has room to improve. His scoring took a step back this season, which is understandable after an unsustainable 19 percent finishing rate in 2011-12, but with his skill, hockey sense and shot, he will be a significant scorer in the league. He may not be a good defensive forward, but his great offensive qualities make up for that.
Columbus' original pick: W Nikita Filatov
Where Eberle was picked: 22nd overall (1st round, Edmonton)
7. Nashville Predators, D Zach Bogosian, Peterborough (OHL)
Bogosian has settled well into the role of a mobile, shutdown defenseman who has excelled doing that the past few seasons. His offensive game hasn't been sterling, but he's NHL average in that department. He'll likely never be a star, but a reliable defender who plays over 20 minutes a night on a team's top pairing in his prime is valuable.
Nashville's original pick: C Colin Wilson
Where Bogosian was picked: 3rd overall (1st round, Winnipeg)
8. Phoenix Coyotes, D Slava Voynov, Traktor (RUS)
Aside from being a little small, Voynov has the multitude of skills you want in the modern-day defenseman. He skates well, can move the puck, has great hockey sense and can wire bombs from the point. As his defensive game has improved, he's gotten more responsibility at the NHL level to the point where he was a key component for one of the NHL's elite teams. He hasn't played in the league for too long, but his future looks bright.
Phoenix's original pick: W Mikkel Boedker
Where Voynov was picked: 32nd overall (2nd round, Los Angeles)
9. New York Islanders, D Travis Hamonic, Moose Jaw (WHL)
After the redraft, Hamonic won't need to pack. The Islanders got a great defensive defenseman in the second round who, if he stays healthy, they can book to play against top players for a number of years. Hamonic has never been seen as a great offensive player, and while he's still not, his puck play has shown notable progression to where he can be fine in that area.
NY Islanders' original pick: C Josh Bailey
Where Hamonic was picked: 53rd overall (2nd round, N.Y. Islanders)
10. Vancouver Canucks, D John Carlson, Indiana (USHL)
Carlson bounced back from an average performance in 2011-12 and looked like a good all-situations defender this season. He's the kind of player who you envision when picking around No. 10. His team still lets up a few too many goals when he's on the ice, but for the most part, when Carlson is playing, his skill is evident and he can be a significant player at both ends.
Vancouver's original pick: C Cody Hodgson
Where Carlson was picked: 27th overall (1st round, Washington)
11. Chicago Blackhawks, D Roman Josi, Bern (SWI)
Josi is an extremely toolsy defenseman with great speed and ability with the puck. He could be a good top pairing defenseman if he reaches his full potential. Josi was just OK for his first NHL season, taking on the toughest responsibilities, but as he develops, he could be a player who can play at a high level. He has some uncertainty mostly in regards to his defensive play.
Chicago's original pick: W Kyle Beach
Where Josi was picked: 38th overall (2nd round, Nashville)
12. Buffalo Sabres, C Adam Henrique, Windsor (OHL)
Henrique may not have gaudy point totals to display, but he's emerged as a good two-way forward. He can take on defensive minutes quite effectively for a young player and stay out of the box while doing so. I believe there's still some offensive projection in Henrique's game, similar to what we saw in 2011-12, and expect an offensive bounce back next season.
Buffalo's original pick: D Tyler Myers
Where Henrique was picked: 82nd overall (3rd round, New Jersey)
13. Los Angeles Kings, C Cody Hodgson, Brampton (OHL)
Hodgson has experienced significant ups and downs in his young hockey career. He's been an elite Junior player, had injury issues slow down his development and then had to make significant adjustments to the pro game. During the lockout, he was tremendous in the AHL, and he looked like a quality top-six forward in Buffalo. He may not be a sterling defensive player or the fastest skater, but his skill and hockey sense can help him produce.
Los Angeles' original pick: D Colten Teubert
Where Hodgson was picked: 10th overall (1st round, Vancouver)
14. Carolina Hurricanes, D Justin Schultz, Westside (BCHL)
If you were to do this redraft again in a couple of years, Schultz could be notably higher depending on how he develops. He has top-pairing skills with high-end offensive potential, as he's a great puck possession player with the instincts to make all sorts of plays. In his first pro season, he was challenged in the defensive aspects of the game, and that is the key thing to watch with him as he gains more experience.
Carolina's original pick: W Zack Boychuk
Where Schultz was picked: 43rd overall (2nd round, Anaheim)
15. Ottawa Senators, D Jake Gardiner, Minnetonka (U.S. HS)
Gardiner is a really interesting player. He didn't get much NHL time this season, but when he did, he looked good. He's a tremendous skater with a lot of offensive potential. There's still a lack of NHL sample size with him and questions about his defensive game, but the upside is there.
Ottawa's original pick: D Erik Karlsson
Where Gardiner was selected: 17th overall (Anaheim, 1st round)
16. Boston Bruins, D Tyler Myers, Kelowna (WHL)
It seems like so long ago when Myers had that outstanding rookie season where he won the Calder Trophy and looked like a star in the making. He's a huge defenseman with unique skating ability for his size and offensive touch, but he's been trending in the wrong direction. His decision-making and overall game have been quite poor. Myers has a high ceiling, and if he regains his form, he has game-breaking potential. However there's above average uncertainty on that scenario playing out.
Boston's original pick: C Joe Colborne
Where Myers was selected: 12th overall (Buffalo, 1st round)
17. Anaheim Ducks, T.J. Brodie, Saginaw (OHL)
Brodie is a gifted defenseman with intriguing speed and ability with the puck. On his best shift, he has the ability to be dynamic and create scoring chances out of nothing. The questions with Brodie are how well can he defend and can he hurt the other team more than he hurts his own team to be a quality NHL player. That is a possible outcome, but he needs more NHL games with more defensive responsibility. His upside could eventually result in him jumping a few names that went before him in this redraft.
Anaheim's original pick: D Jake Gardiner
Where Brodie was selected: 114th overall (4th round, Calgary)
18. Nashville Predators, C Tyler Ennis, Medicine Hat (WHL)
Ennis may be only 5-foot-9, but he's rounding into a pretty solid NHL forward. He was a top scorer in the WHL, and some thought he had the potential to outplay his draft slot in 2008. Sure, he isn't going to be killing penalties anytime soon, but he has legitimate offensive abilities and can be above average when it comes to driving puck possession.
Nashville's original pick: G Chet Pickard
Where Ennis was selected: 26th overall (1st round, Buffalo)
19. Philadelphia Flyers, C Colin Wilson, Boston University (NCAA)
Wilson was drafted as a potential two-way center with a lot of physical game value. In terms of scoring, he hasn't developed at the expected level, and he's not a penalty killer either. That in mind, he still looks like a player who could be an average to above average regular in the NHL for a while. Wilson has skill, and he manages to find a way to keep the play flowing in the right direction.
Philadelphia's original pick: D Luca Sbisa
Where Wilson was selected: 7th overall (1st round, Nashville)
20. New York Rangers, W Mikkel Boedker, Kitchener (OHL)
2013 was the first season where Boedker got significant responsibility at the NHL level. He did fine, but he has another level. Boedker is a top-end skater with great puck skills and a big shot, although he doesn't shoot as often as he should. Boedker doesn't have an impressive NHL track record, but with him, it's all about his ceiling and what he could become.
New York Rangers' original pick: D Michael Del Zotto
Where Boedker was selected: 8th overall (1st round, Phoenix)
21. Washington Capitals, W Gustav Nyquist, Malmo (SWE)
Nyquist is arguably still in the prospect stage, but he has so much talent. He's a great puck handler, with high-end vision and good speed. He's a little undersized, but it's plausible if he pans out that he could be taken much earlier if you did a 2008 redraft in 2018. Of course, like all prospects, there's a chance he doesn't pan out. Given that he's already 23 years old, you would expect next year he needs to start looking like a significant NHL player.
Washington's original pick: C Anton Gustafsson
Where Nyquist was selected: 121st overall (4th round, Detroit)
22. Edmonton Oilers, D Michael Del Zotto, Oshawa (OHL)
Del Zotto has had an interesting NHL career. He's played a lot of minutes, and his offensive ability is certainly a major plus at the top level. However, it hasn't all been positives for MDZ, as he can make overly risky plays or get turned by speedy forwards and give up a scoring chance. He's still young and may be able to work out the kinks in his game, but to this point, while he has the potential to be a quality top-four defenseman, there are still concerns going forward.
Edmonton's original pick: W Jordan Eberle
Where Del Zotto was selected: 20th overall (1st round, NY Rangers)
23. Minnesota Wild, C Andrei Loktionov, Lokomotiv (RUS)
Loktionov stagnated for a while in the AHL, waiting for an opportunity that eventually came in the 2012-13 season. He is a little small but has a lot of interesting offensive tools with his quality speed, hands and hockey sense. He also possesses good competitiveness. As he gains more NHL experience, Loktionov seems like a player who could flourish as a top-six NHL forward once he's given more responsibility.
Minnesota's original pick: D Tyler Cuma
Where Loktionov was selected: 123rd overall (5th round, Los Angeles)
24. New Jersey Devils, D Luke Schenn, Kelowna (WHL)
Schenn's NHL career has been full of extremes. During his first four years, he followed up a solid season with a disastrous one. In 2012-13, Schenn was the good Luke Schenn, a player who won't provide much offense but plays tough minutes and is an effective defenseman. He could end up being quite good, but he goes a little late in this redraft due to his lack of consistency and potential floor.
New Jersey's original pick: W Mattias Tedenby
Where Schenn was selected: 5th overall (1st round, Toronto)
25. Calgary Flames, D Jared Spurgeon, Spokane (WHL)
Spurgeon is one the smallest defensemen in the NHL at 5-9, 185 pounds, but he's managed to etch out a nice role as an average NHL defenseman. He can skate, move the puck and even play a little penalty kill, although his value is more on the offensive side. He probably won't be a core player for a team, but 20-minutes-a-night defensemen don't grow on trees.
Calgary's original pick: C Greg Nemisz
Where Spurgeon was selected: 156th overall (6th round, N.Y. Islanders)
26. Buffalo Sabres, C Josh Bailey, Windsor (OHL)
Bailey hasn't panned out as one would hope when selecting a player in the top 10, but he hasn't been a complete bust either. Bailey, for the past few seasons, has been a relatively consistent, average NHL forward, and that's a useful player. He has enough skill to spot on a second power-play unit, has defensive value and can kill penalties. There may even be some room left for more development.
Buffalo's original pick: C Tyler Ennis
Where Bailey was selected: 9th overall (1st round, N.Y. Islanders)
27. Washington Capitals, W Cam Atkinson, Avon Old Farms (U.S. HS)
Atkinson has been one of the big risers from the 2008 draft. He may be 5-7, but he is an agile skater with a lot of skill, a big shot and a good work ethic. He looked really good in the AHL during the lockout and flashed his offensive potential in 35 NHL games this season. Atkinson has a chance to be ranked higher than the 27th best player from this draft class based on his potential.
Washington's original pick: D John Carlson
Where Atkinson was selected: 157th overall (6th round, Columbus)
28. Phoenix Coyotes, G Braden Holtby, Saskatoon (WHL)
Holtby has a lot of good qualities you want in a goaltender. He's athletic with good reflexes and good feet, and he stops a lot of pucks. He doesn't have much of an NHL sample, playing 57 regular-season games in his career, which is about what a No. 1 goalie plays in one season. (He did it over three.) Between his scouting-based analysis and performance in the regular season and playoffs, there are a lot of positive signs for Holtby. However, similar with most goalies, we need more time to evaluate him before getting conclusive information about his NHL value.
Phoenix's original pick: C Viktor Tikhonov
Where Holtby was selected: 93rd overall (4th round, Washington)
29. Winnipeg Jets (then Atlanta), D Luca Sbisa, Lethbridge (WHL)
After his impressive NHL showing for a U-20 defenseman in 2008-09, Sbisa, for most of his short NHL career, struggled to establish himself as a quality NHL regular. Toward the second half of the 2012-13 season and into the playoffs, his play started to pick up and he showed flashes of the two-way asset he could be on the back end. There's still question marks for Sbisa, and at some point he needs to put together an above average season to get ranked any higher.
Winnipeg's original pick: C Daultan Leveille
Where Sbisa was selected: 19th overall (1st round, Philadelphia)
30. Detroit Red Wings, D Marco Scandella, Val-d'Or (QMJHL)
Scandella was a solid NHL player in 2011-12 but struggled to regain his spot and NHL ice time after the lockout. He is an all-around player who is smart in both ends, is mobile and has good size. He didn't impress as much this season, but there's certainly some ability to his game, and I'd bet on a lot of output from him going forward.
Detroit's original pick: G Thomas McCollum
Where Scandella was selected: 55th overall (2nd round, Minnesota)
Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order): D Mark Barberio (Tampa Bay, 6th round), C Joe Colborne (Boston, 1st round), D Matt Donovan (N.Y. Islanders, 4th round), W Danny Kristo (Montreal, 2nd round), G Jacob Markstrom (Florida, 2nd round), C Zack Smith (Ottawa, 3rd round), D Zach Redmond (Winnipeg, 7th round), D Patrick Wiercioch (Ottawa, 2nd round)