Thanksgiving in the USA. Turkey, pumpkin pie, that parade with all the giant balloons and the time-honored tradition of NHL teams in playoff seeds breathing just a bit easier.
Since the NHL switched to the wild-card format in 2013-14, 77% of teams in a playoff position on Turkey Day go on to make the Stanley Cup playoffs (excluding the two COVID-impacted seasons), according to ESPN Research. In half of those 10 seasons, 13 of 16 teams remained in playoff spots by season's end. There's never been fewer than 11 or more than 13 Thanksgiving playoff teams that eventually made the cut.
In other words, there are always teams on the outside who get in.
Last season, the Montreal Canadiens (five points back), Ottawa Senators (three back), St. Louis Blues (two back) and Edmonton Oilers (one back) were not in playoff spots at Thanksgiving and still made the postseason tournament. Over the last 10 non-COVID seasons, teams on the outside that eventually made the postseason where 2.8 points back of a playoff seed.
For some teams, it's time to panic. But panic isn't all-encompassing. There are specific kinds of it, and different intensities to it.
Here is the American Thanksgiving NHL Panic Index, beginning with the teams that are feeling the least indigestion at the dinner table.
Complete nirvana
They have reached a stage of spiritual enlightenment. As the Buddha taught, if one scores all the goals (4.00 per game through 22 games, best in the NHL) and allows the fewest (2.18 goals against per game, best in the NHL) then that is the path to many victories. They are in a state where suffering has been extinguished, with an .841 points percentage and one regulation loss as of Nov. 24.
Stathletes has the Avalanche with the best percentage chance of making the playoffs, winning their conference and eventually capturing the Stanley Cup. Namaste, Nathan MacKinnon.
Zero panic
Carolina Hurricanes
Dallas Stars
Tampa Bay Lightning
These three teams are right where many expected they'd be.
The Lightning entered Tuesday atop the Atlantic Division, which is no small feat considering the injury and production concerns they've had with some of their impact players -- Brayden Point, to be specific. Or perhaps this is just an indictment of the Atlantic Division's overall quality.
The Hurricanes have the goal differential of a Rod Brind'Amour team (plus-12) except this time it's their deep offense outpacing their defense, which has missed Jaccob Slavin for all but two games.
Like the Lightning, the Stars have hung tough despite injuries to players such as Thomas Harley and Matt Duchene, thanks in no small part to Jason Robertson (13 goals), Mikko Rantanen (10 goals) and Wyatt Johnston (11 goals), a trio who scored roughly 49% of the team's goals through 22 games.
Panicked, but relatively pleased
Minnesota Wild
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Utah Mammoth
Washington Capitals
The key word here is "relatively." Every team here has something it can hang its hopes on.
Like the Flyers having located a competent goaltender (Dan Vladar) to play in back of a Rick Tocchet system that's seventh in expected goals against at 5-on-5. Like the Islanders combining a jolt of adrenaline from the play of rookie defenseman Matthew Schaefer with dominant goaltending from Ilya Sorokin to place in the top three in the Metro.
Like the Capitals being right in the Metro mix thanks to their own stellar netminder Logan Thompson (12.6 goals saved above expected) and a dominant offensive start from Tom Wilson -- two guys doing everything they can to make the Canadian Olympic team.
The Mammoth are right where they want to be: In a playoff position with young stars such as Logan Cooley in full bloom. The Penguins are where no one expected them to be, as MVP-caliber performances from Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have propelled the offense while surprisingly stout goaltending has done the job defensively.
The Wild, meanwhile, enter Turkey Week on a heater, in a season that has featured both a healthy (and soon-to-be handsomely paid!) Kirill Kaprizov and the emphatic arrival of Jesper Wallstedt, who went 6-0-2 in his first eight starts with a .935 save percentage, a 1.94 goals-against average and a seismic impact on the rookie of the year race.
Panicked until they're healthy again
Boston Bruins
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
New Jersey Devils
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights
Winnipeg Jets
All of these teams have played through major injuries to major players so far this season.
The back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Panthers were already going to be missing Matthew Tkachuk for the first few months of the season when captain Aleksander Barkov was injured in his first practice, costing him the regular season and potentially the postseason. They've treaded water thanks to the outstanding offensive play of Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart (13 goals each), who are doing their part until Tkachuk returns in the coming weeks.
The Devils are doing what they can without Jack Hughes, who needed surgery on his hand after a bizarre accident involving broken glass at a team dinner in Chicago. They've obviously done this before, but losing a guy with 10 goals in his first 17 games for up to two months wasn't ideal. Ditto the Jets and back-to-back Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck, who's out for a month after corrective surgery on a knee issue.
The Bruins (Charlie McAvoy) and Kings (Drew Doughty) are both missing marquee defensemen. The Senators are the happiest of this bunch: Captain and burgeoning podcaster Brady Tkachuk, who was lost to a thumb injury after just three games, is expected back in the lineup shortly. He returns to a Senators team that remained in the playoff mix in his absence.
Brady and Matthew Tkachuk tell Pat McAfee about their motivation to start a podcast together.
Panicked because the goaltending stinks
Columbus Blue Jackets
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis Blues
It's not exactly headline news that the Oilers' goaltending stinks, what with the whole "we're not sure who is starting a Stanley Cup Final elimination game" thing last June against Florida.
But so far this season it's gone from being an Achilles heel to a gangrenous leg. Edmonton has the second worst save percentage (ahead of Nashville) and is fourth worst in the NHL in goals saved above expected. Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard continue to have their moments of respectable average play -- and atrocious play, like Skinner giving up four goals on eight shots to Dallas on Tuesday -- but stop us if you've heard this before: a Connor McDavid team is being undercut by its goaltending.
The Blues are another team where neither goaltender has played well off the hop. Stathletes has Jordan Binnington at minus-8.75 goals saved above expected in all situations, and crease-mate Joel Hofer at minus-6.62. St. Louis is 29th in save percentage (.869) through 23 games.
The problem for the Blue Jackets and Red Wings is imbalance. Detroit's Cam Talbot has played just above expected in 13 starts, putting up respectable numbers while going 9-3-0. But John Gibson, acquired from Anaheim to solidify the tandem, has been anything but solid in 12 appearances, with a minus-3.16 goals saved above expected and what could end up being the worst save percentage of his career.
Meanwhile, Columbus watched Jet Greaves rocket out of the gate to take the starting goaltender job. He has a 7-4-3 record in 14 starts with a solid .904 save percentage, but his numbers have come back to the pack just a little. The bigger issue is that veteran Elvis Merzlikins has seen his early returns (4-1-0, .915 save percentage in October) squandered in losing his next four appearances. Columbus went from a team save percentage in the top five down to 16th overall (.896).
The problem for the Canadiens? Early-season bubbles popping. Rookie Jakub Dobes had a promising start for the Habs, going 6-0-0 in October with a .930 save percentage to help balance out the terrible season that Sam Montembeault is having (.852 save percentage, minus-12.92 goals saved above expected). But Dobes has had a rough November: 1-2-3 with an .843 save percentage behind an increasingly injured Canadiens team. He's now playing well below expected (minus-5.72 goals saved above expected).
Regression panicked
Anaheim Ducks
Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Kraken
PDO is a hockey metric that combines a team's shooting percentage and save percentage into a single number. It's considered a measure of "puck luck," while also acting as a predictor of sorts: Teams with an uncharacteristically high PDO are bound to regress to the mean, while those below average should swing upward at some point.
Entering Tuesday, the Blackhawks were third in PDO (1.029) at 5-on-5 after finishing 25th last season. Much of that credit goes to goalie Spencer Knight's career-redefining season, leading the league in goals saved above expected (plus-15.5, per Money Puck) and sporting a .924 save percentage. Offensively, they're shooting 12.6%, second in the NHL. Chicago shot 11.2% last season. If Knight is as good as he's looked in the last 15 games, the Blackhawks might stick around for a bit.
The Kraken are fifth in PDO (1.023) thanks to the best 5-on-5 save percentage in the league (.938). Raise your hand if you expected Matt Murray (.952), Philipp Grubauer (.935) and Joey Daccord (.927) to do what they've been doing at even strength this season. Anyone? Anyone? The Lane Lambert effect as head coach does mean the Kraken are a bit offensively challenged, ranking 18th in team shooting percentage (10.7%). The goaltending has them in a playoff spot at Thanksgiving. Will it hold?
The Sharks are right behind the Kraken (1.022) after 23 games, fueled by the fifth best shooting percentage in the league -- thanks, Macklin "20.9%" Celebrini -- and goaltending by Yaroslav Askarov, who Money Puck has near the top of the league in goals saved above expected (plus-8.51). Youth and depth might catch up with them eventually, but boy are they fun.
Then come to the Ducks at seventh in PDO (1.020). They were eighth in save percentage at 5-on-5 though 22 games, thanks to Vezina Trophy-worthy netminding by Lukas Dostal (.917 even-strength save percentage) papering over the second-worst 5-on-5 expected goals against in the league. Offensively, they're a juggernaut, averaging 3.59 goals per game in 22 games, second only to Colorado. There are reasons to believe that offense will keep rolling. The Ducks' playoff fate depends on the other end of the ice.
Existential dread
When things went poorly for the Sabres in their first 22 games, like when they dropped eight of nine games, the reaction was "here we go again."
When things go well for the Sabres, like when they won four of five games heading into Thanksgiving, the reaction was the most guarded optimism imaginable with an impending sense of doom -- which is understandable when every season since the last playoff appearance in 2011 has either been a tease or a tank.
Through 22 games, Money Puck gave the Sabres a 7.5% chance of making the playoffs. But Stathletes put their odds at a robust 33.4%. There's no better example of the divergent paths ahead for this Buffalo team.
If Tage Thompson continues to dominate, if Mattias Samuelsson and Rasmus Dahlin remain a bedrock duo, if they can squeeze out enough goaltending success ... maybe the drought ends? Or maybe this ends up being the 15th consecutive "wait 'till next year."
Extremely panicked
Calgary Flames
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Entering Wednesday night, there was only one team in the Eastern Conference with a points percentage under .500: The Maple Leafs (.477 in 22 games), who were last in the East. Star center Auston Matthews played in only 17 of those games. His return will help, and they're certainly missing other injured players like Chris Tanev.
But there are so many other malfunctions around the Leafs -- middling 5-on-5 play, terrible special teams, below-average goaltending and a goals-against average near the league's basement -- that it's hard to diagnose what needs to change to turn things around. Although the firing of coach Craig Berube has been a popular method discussed by fans and media.
Calgary's dug itself a considerable hole in a suddenly more competitive division. But the Flames (.396 save percentage) recently located a pulse after president of hockey operations Don Maloney told Sportsnet the team isn't "throwing in the towel" nor looking at a total teardown of its roster. Whether that's the right tact in the long run is up for debate. But it wasn't great news for fans who were hoping their contending teams might add someone like Nazem Kadri to their mix via trade.
Unlike the Leafs (4.3%) and Flames (5.3%), the Rangers had a solid chance (42.7%) of making the postseason, according to Stathletes. When they hunker down defensively in front of Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers can be a very effective defensive team. But they've been a mess offensively since the start of the season, with players like captain J.T. Miller failing to hit their typical point paces. They're inconsistent and haven't soothed concerns about their depth. But it's that lack of offense that has the Blueshirts a little jittery about their fortunes this season.
Beyond panicked
Nashville Predators
Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks were the first team to blink this season. After amassing a .435 points percentage through 23 games, president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford told Postmedia on Tuesday that the Canucks need to get younger and confirmed that they were shopping veteran pending free agents like Evander Kane.
"Use whatever word people like, whether it's somewhat of a rebuild, not a full blown rebuild, but a rebuild-retool, whatever," Rutherford said. "It's the position we've been in since the J.T. Miller trade [last season]."
Are the Predators next? GM Barry Trotz told ESPN this week that the team's next seven games will determine his approach to the rest of their season. He's receiving calls from other teams about his veteran players. He's had talks with their agents about what could be down the road. They're not open for business yet, but with a .364 points percentage after 22 games, how long before that happens?