Before the 2025-26 NHL season -- on Sept. 24, to be exact -- we made bold predictions for all 32 teams. With a quarter of that season now in the books, it's time to check the validity of those claims.
At least one of them was already proven true. At least one of them was very, very wrong.
Here's a progress report on our bold predictions. We'll rate each prediction on a 1-10 scale, with "1" indicating that the prediction absolutely will not come true and "10" indicating that I absolutely nailed it. Enjoy!
Atlantic Division
Boston Bruins
Bruins will trade Pavel Zacha
Considering the Bruins' massive trade-off last season, seeing Zacha shipped out during their "retool" made sense. He's a center who plays in all facets of the game and really found his offensive stride since arriving in Boston. He's signed through next season at a very affordable $4.75 million annually against the salary cap.
But his availability is based on a few factors. Like whether Boston sees Zacha as part of their long-term solutions. Like if Boston is contending for a playoff spot or not. Like if someone in this center-starved league calls up GM Don Sweeney and makes him an offer he can't refuse.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Buffalo Sabres
Rasmus Dahlin is a Norris Trophy finalist
Dahlin is skating with a lot on his mind. He revealed before the season that his fiancée, Carolina Matovac, received a heart transplant this summer following a health scare while on vacation. Earlier this month, he returned to Sweden to care for her, missing three games. The support he received from the hockey community was inspiring and a reminder of how far we've come in consideration of a player's life outside the NHL.
In the 17 games Dahlin has played, he has 14 points with 13 of them assists. That places him in the top 10 among defensemen in scoring. That he plays for a Sabres team once again struggling to contend shouldn't impact his Norris candidacy, as he finished sixth for the award last season. If there's an analytic argument for his defense to go along with strong offensive numbers, he's got a shot at being one of three finalists.
The real concern with this bold prediction is that for the foreseeable future, there might be only one Norris Trophy finalist spot open to someone who isn't Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 5
Detroit Red Wings
Steve Yzerman fails upward
Naturally I predicted that the Red Wings' general manager would abdicate the throne in the season where Detroit raced to first place in the Atlantic. I still don't have too much faith in the "Yzerplan" -- rough starts for top prospect Marco Kasper and goaltending solution John Gibson haven't helped -- but Stevie Y likely won't be going anywhere if the Red Wings improve on their .524 points percentage from last season.
Of course, that's going to depend on whether Detroit avoids its traditional second-half tailspin. Over the last two seasons, the Red Wings are 16-23-4 after March 1. If they fall short of the playoffs and are worse than last season's record ... well, he's been the GM since 2019. How many more chances does the franchise legend get?
Bold prediction confidence rating: 4
Florida Panthers
Sergei Bobrovsky gets a "Marchand" deal
Regular-season Bob is the guy who is 9-5-0 through 14 games with a .883 save percentage and a 2.80 goals-against average. He does what he needs to in order to collect points to make the postseason. Which is where he becomes Playoff Bob, the guy who has led the Panthers to three straight Stanley Cup finals and two straight championships. The guy with the .914 save percentage and a 2.20 GAA in 23 games last postseason.
The Panthers just re-signed a guy named Sam Bennett who is productive in the regular season and a monster in the playoffs. I imagine they'll do the same with Bobrovsky. The Panthers also just re-signed a 37-year-old to a six-year contract that pays him $5.25 against the cap annually. I imagine they'll do the same with Bobrovsky. Like Brad Marchand, he doesn't want to leave, either.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Montreal Canadiens
Kaiden Guhle earns leaguewide appreciation
Well, it turns out Kaiden Guhle played five games before having surgery for a partially torn abductor muscle and will miss at least two months of the season.
Now, that does leave enough time in the season for him to make an impact and earn the notice he deserves. Or, failing that, the Canadiens miss him desperately while he's on the mend and he's appreciated for his absence.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
Ottawa Senators
Dylan Cozens sets new career highs
The targets for this bold prediction: 31 goals and 68 points, set when Cozens was a 21-year-old center with the Sabres in 2022-23.
The progress so far: Cozens has seven goals and seven assists in 19 games. That puts him right around 30 goals but well short of his career point total. Praying for a hot streak at some point this season.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 3
Tampa Bay Lightning
Lightning will win the Atlantic Division
The Lightning face-planted out of the gate with a 1-4-2 record and then suffered a slew of injuries to players like Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Anthony Cirelli. They've now won nine of 12 games and some of the aspects of their team that were struggling -- like their power play -- might be rounding into form. At some point it would be nice if Brayden Point looked like Brayden Point again, but he's got time.
Stathletes projects the Lightning to have an 81.5% chance of finishing first in the Atlantic Division. We'll take it.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Toronto Maple Leafs
Leafs will retain Nick Robertson
Given everything that swirled around the Maple Leafs in the first month of the season, this prediction reads like an act of cowardice. Where was "they fire Craig Berube before Christmas?" Or "the Leafs miss the playoffs outright?"
Instead, I predicted that Nick Robertson, a player perpetually in trade rumors, would remain with the team rather than being shipped out. He's still there, playing in 19 of their 20 games and has 11 points. But who knows where the wacky season in Toronto takes him.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Metropolitan Division
Carolina Hurricanes
Canes will win the Eastern Conference
The Hurricanes' regular-season success has become so expected under coach Rod Brind'amour that their 13-5-1 start is just background noise in the Eastern Conference right now -- despite not having star defenseman Jaccob Slavin for all but two games of it. They've made the conference final in three of the seven years that Rod the Bod has coached them, including two of the last three seasons in which they were eliminated by the Florida Panthers. No shame in that. Ask Edmonton.
Their issue in the playoffs remains their goal-scoring. They averaged 3.12 goals per game during that three-year span in the postseason, down from 3.27 over 246 regular-season games from 2022-25.
Absent a star scorer like Jake Guentzel or Mikko Rantanen, perhaps that defect prevents them from playing for the Stanley Cup again. Or perhaps the early returns on the Carolina offense this season (3.63 goals per game over 19 games) underscore how deep their goal-generation goes on this edition of the Canes, indicating they have enough of it to finally break through the Eastern Conference ceiling.
All of that ignores the elephant in the room, which is that no one in the Eastern Conference seems all that formidable at the moment in comparison to the Hurricanes. Unless of course the Panthers get Aleksander Barkov back for the playoffs ...
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Columbus Blue Jackets
Jet Greaves takes over the crease
There have been few stats more jarring than the Blue Jackets being among the leaders in team save percentage during the first 20 games of the season, given the recent effectiveness between the pipes. The goalie rotation of Jet Greaves and Elvis Merzļikins was working well, but it was becoming increasingly obvious that Greaves was outplaying his tandem partner. He had a .904 save percentage in 12 games and higher goals saved above expected.
If the crease isn't Greaves's now, it will be eventually. The Jackets have waited for someone to play well enough to relegate Merzļikins to a backup role, and Jet might have the fuel to do it.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
New Jersey Devils
Jack Hughes plays 82 games
Mea culpa: I was unaware that the Devils were going to have a team dinner at a Chicago steakhouse wherein Jack Hughes would have what's been called a "freak accident" that involved getting his finger sliced by glass. Jack had surgery and will be out a minimum of six weeks, all but assuring that New Jersey will continue to be a franchise without a 50-goal scorer or 100-point player and that his bold prediction can already be deposited in the trash.
On the plus side, Hughes was correct when he sassed reporters before the season about his offseason conditioning and perpetual injuries. There's no accounting for freak accidents on the ice or around the glass.
Bold prediction confidence rating: ZERO
New York Islanders
Patrick Roy coaches his last season on Long Island
I'm going to blame Matthew Schaefer for mucking up what should have been a fairly easy call here.
Roy reportedly doesn't have a contract beyond this season. He has a new general manager in Mathieu Darche who had no hand in hiring him, and as a new general manager, he would probably like to get his own guy in there at some point. The Islanders were projected to finish with around 84 points and had a 1-in-4 chance of making the playoffs.
Then the 18-year-old first overall pick in the NHL draft shows up, plays like Cale Makar and infuses the entire organization with a youthful enthusiasm and optimism. Suddenly the Islanders are in a playoff spot and ascendant in the East.
I'm not selling on this prediction yet for the factors listed above and because it's so early. But am I shaking a fist in the direction of Matthew Schaefer while muttering something about "these kids today."
Bold prediction confidence rating: 5
New York Rangers
Rangers return to the playoffs
There have been stretches in the first 21 games of the season in which this prediction looked quite good, and there have been stretches in which the Rangers making the playoffs seems implausible.
Stathletes says there's an 84.2% chance the Blueshirts make the Stanley Cup playoffs, which gives me hope. So do the seasons that goalie Igor Shesterkin and defenseman Adam Fox are having, and the seasons that players like forwards Will Cuylle and Vincent Trocheck will have when they get through the team's early-season offensive doldrums.
And yet I worry about their depth, which was a concern before the season and a deeper one having gotten eyes on them. I worry about J.T. Miller, the Rangers captain whose offensive numbers have fallen off a cliff while fan-cams are catching him acting listless defensively. I worry that the chemistry is off and the competition is too good. But I keep the faith that Mike Sullivan and the Rangers will figure this thing out. And if they don't, GM Chris Drury will no doubt be aggressive in trying to ensure they do.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers win the Gavin McKenna draft lottery
The impetus for this prediction was basically a goof on Penguins fans who thought their team would continue its downward trajectory only to end up with the first overall phenom in next year's draft who also happens to play at Penn State. Wouldn't it be funny if he went to the other team in the state? Ha, ha. Everyone laughs.
Well, it turns out the Penguins aren't currently playing like a lottery team and the Flyers are stubbornly hanging tough in the Metro Division under head coach Rick Tocchet thanks to exceptional goaltending from offseason pickup Dan Vladar.
I'm heartened that the analytics community still sees the Flyers as an eventual cellar dweller. Stathletes projects them as a lottery team (89.2 points). Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic has them much lower at 81.6 points, ahead of only four other teams.
I remember sharing this prediction with someone in Philadelphia recently who said it would be ironic if the Flyers won the lottery the year in which a winger (McKenna) was top pick, given their needs at center. It's like 10,000 spoons when all you need is a knife.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Pittsburgh Penguins
Sidney Crosby plays somewhere in the playoffs this season
The true genius of this prediction was in its vagueness. Like many others, I heard the speculation that Crosby might end up leaving the Penguins if this was another lost season. That he was tired of missing out of the most important time of the NHL calendar and wasn't going to be mired in a rebuild.
I asked Sid about that theory at the NHL Player Media Tour in September. He told me it wasn't anything on his mind because he was optimistic that the Penguins, picked by many to finish last in the division, could return to the playoffs for the first time since 2022. Which, admittedly, seemed delusional. But it was enough for me to hedge my bold prediction, declaring that he would play in the playoffs "somewhere," including on the off chance that would be in Pittsburgh.
What I didn't count on was Crosby willing the Penguins into the playoffs himself. Through 19 games, the Penguins have a .632 points percentage and Crosby is leading them with 23 points. His buddy Evgeni Malkin, also the subject of trade speculation, led the team with 12 goals.
They were never going to leave Pittsburgh if the team was relevant. Through their own efforts, some Jack Adams-level coaching by Dan Muse and the second-best goaltending in the league so far, the Penguins aren't only relevant but a team that could make the playoffs. Which would be fine by me, because Pittsburgh is -- at last check -- "somewhere."
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Washington Capitals
Ovechkin breaks another Gretzky record
After shattering the most famous Wayne Gretzky goal-scoring record last season, Ovechkin has a chance to shatter another one this season. Gretzky scored 1,016 goals combined between the regular season and the Stanley Cup playoffs. Ovechkin needed 43 goals between the regular and postseasons to beat that mark.
Through 19 games, Ovechkin has six goals. That pace would put him under 30 goals for the season. Even with a prolonged playoff run by the Capitals, it would be hard to see him break that mark without a bigger goal cushion in the regular season. The good news is that when Ovechkin gets hot, his goal-scoring pace can get scorching.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
Central Division
Chicago Blackhawks
Frank Nazar doubles his points total
With Connor Bedard having a star-making season (13 goals in 19 games) that might earn him a trip to the Olympics, whatever Frank Nazar does for the Blackhawks might be a little overlooked. He's been great, with 13 points in 17 games and playing in all phases of the game. He briefly missed some time after taking a cross-check from Joel Farabee earlier this month, but Nazar is back and picking up points again.
He tallied 26 points in 53 games last season. At his current scoring rate, and assuming he stays in the lineup, Nazar could top 60 points. He may not be on Bedard's line but he gets to hang with him on the power play. That's good enough for me.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Colorado Avalanche
Avs win the Western Conference
It's always a nice feeling when you hitch your wagon to a bulldozer. The Avalanche started the season going 13-1-5 in their first 19 games. They led the NHL in offense and defense and had its leading scorer in points and goals (Nathan MacKinnon), its top scorer among defensemen (Cale Makar) and the fourth best team save percentage (.909) thanks to a 33-year-old journeyman having potentially the best season of his pro career (Scott Wedgewood).
What's scary about the Avs is that there's still so much room for improvement in players like Brock Nelson, Gabe Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin.
The caveat here is that the Avalanche haven't make it past the second round since winning the Stanley Cup in 2022. But so far, MacKinnon & Co. seem absolutely determined to drink of the chalice again next June.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Dallas Stars
Matt Duchene regresses
It does feel a bit awkward to grade this one out with Duchene on long-term injured reserve at the moment with an undisclosed ailment. He hasn't played since Oct. 18. Duchene had a goal and an assist in four games.
My point still stands that the departure of Mikael Granlund and Mason Marchment combined with a downgrade from his 19.7% shooting percentage means Duchene won't hit that point-per-game pace from last season when he returns to the ice.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Minnesota Wild
Zeev Buium outscores Brock Faber
Through 20 games, Zeev Buium had 10 points to Brock Faber's nine points, so let's stop the count and call this one a win!
OK, to dig into this a little further, my prediction here was predicted heavily on Buium getting top unit power-play time, assuming that he wouldn't produce all that much at 5-on-5 as a rookie. True to form, seven of his 10 points have come on the man advantage. He's averaging more ice time per game (3:22) than Faber (1:04) on the power play so far this season, but his role as the quarterback for Kirill Kaprizov's unit isn't cemented.
He hasn't produced much of anything in his last 10 games heading into Wednesday night, and his overall ice time has been fluctuating. I'm concerned but confident.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
Nashville Predators
Andrew Brunette keeps his job
GM Barry Trotz recently said that the Predators are in a "transitional phase" as an organization but wouldn't go as far to call it a "rebuild." Either way, it's clear things aren't working under Brunette for a second straight season, which could necessitate his firing ...
... only what would that accomplish? Brunette signed a four-year deal in 2024. Unless Trotz wants to add "coach" to his job title for no significant bump in pay, wouldn't it make sense for the organization to let Brunette coach through a lost season instead of paying him not work?
The only scenarios I see in which Brunette doesn't finish the season are if Trotz felt compelled to save the season himself or if he felt that AHL Milwaukee Admirals coach Karl Taylor was the next guy behind the bench and wanted to give him a few months of experience this season. Because even if things get bad for Nashville, that's ultimately good in a "transitional phase," no?
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
St. Louis Blues
Jimmy Snuggerud, Calder Trophy finalist
Snuggerud has been unremarkable during the first 20 games of the season after making a huge impression with four points in seven playoff games last season. He has five goals and six assists, skating to a minus-2. He's played up with Pavel Buchnevich and Robert Thomas, and he's gotten some power-play time as well.
Snuggerud faces two significant problems right now as a Calder candidate. The first is that the Blues stink, and therefore his accomplishments aren't going to get the same attention as those rookies on contending teams. The second is that defenseman Matthew Schaefer of the Islanders and forward Ivan Demidov of the Canadiens have absolutely owned the rookie spotlight through the first quarter of the season.
Throw in a quarter of interesting rookies in goal -- Yaroslav Askarov (SJS), Jakub Dobes (MTL), Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) and Arturs Silovs (PIT) -- and it's already a crowded field. But Snuggerud still has a lane to the Calder if he can pick up the scoring pace. And by that we mean lead all rookie forwards in points.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
Utah Mammoth
The Mammoth make the playoff cut
When the Mammoth lost their third straight overtime game this week, head coach André Tourigny joked, "We're undefeated in regulation in the last four (games). Let's put it that way."
To that end, the Mammoth are picking up points again after losing five of six games in regulation. That followed seven straight wins. This is what young, super-talented teams do, and Utah isn't immune to it.
They've shown me enough to be confident that the sum total of this season will be a playoff appearance. Their core players are great and their young stars like Logan Cooley are constantly improving. If I have a concern, it's in goal, where Karel Vejmelka and Vitek Vanecek are both playing below replacement levels. But I'm not giving up on them Yeti, er, yet.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Winnipeg Jets
Kyle Connor stays, makes Marner money
After my predictions story ran on Sept. 24, Connor signed an eight-year contract extension on Oct. 8 worth $96 million, which gives him a $12 million average annual value through 2033-34.
Mitch Marner had signed an eight-year contract extension on June 30 worth $96 million, which gives him a $12 million average annual value through 2032-33.
Just a tomahawk dunk from the foul line of a prediction. I'd give this an 11 if I could.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 10
Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks
Ducks are a final week elimination
The Ducks have been an early-season revelation as new head coach Joel Quenneville unlocked their offense to the tune of 3.63 goals per game, third in the league. Young stars like Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier were among the NHL's top scorers. Chris Kreider and Jacob Trouba were playing like they wanted to make the Rangers regret forcing them out of MSG. Anaheim sat atop the Pacific Division, looking like they've turned the corner.
Stathletes gives Anaheim a 67% chance of making the playoffs, which tells you that this early-season sprint by the Ducks isn't an aberration. But contending for and making the playoffs are two different things. One assumes the Oilers will do what they usually do: Start slow and then catch fire to finish in the top three in the division. The Kings are solid. The Golden Knights haven't truly hit their stride. The wild card could be crowded with teams like the Mammoth, Wild and Kraken.
But the reason I'm sticking with a near-miss by these Ducks: They don't defend at a playoff level yet. Which is fine, because a lot of them are still ducklings. Lukas Dostal is good enough to carry them to the bubble, but it'll eventually pop days before the postseason.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
Calgary Flames
Nazem Kadri will be traded
The Flames had the worst record in the NHL through 21 games, with just a .310 points percentage. They might be the only team in the league for whom you could say the season was already lost, sitting 10 points out of the final wild-card spot and 11 points out of third place in the Pacific on Nov. 19.
As one would expect, the trade rumor industrial complex is feasting on Flames content. Pending UFA defenseman Rasmus Andersson has been the subject of speculation for most of the year. Versatile forward Blake Coleman, signed through 2026-27, could be a coveted addition. But it's Kadri that continues to enchant fans whose teams need a No. 2 center, with his unique mix of skill and snarl. He has limited trade protection.
TSN's Darren Dreger said the Flames aren't shopping Kadri, who is signed through 2028-29 at a solid cap hit ($7 million annualy), specifically noting that "Flames ownership" wants to keep him around. So that's discouraging, but not nearly as discouraging as the results the Flames aren't getting on the ice. Moving him might just eventually make more sense than keeping him around if some contender sees him as the final piece of a championship puzzle.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 6
Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid signs a team-friendly, three-year extension
Connor McDavid ended his contract drama by signing an extension on Oct. 6. Was it team-friendly, as predicted? Yes, as McDavid signed for much less than market value, such as something could exist for the best hockey player on the planet. The Oilers inked him to a deal that carries an average annual value of $12.5 million, which is $1.5 million less annually than teammate Leon Draisaitl.
Was it three years? No, it was not. McDavid surprised many by taking an even shorter short-term deal with Edmonton, giving them a three-year window -- this season, plus two more -- in which to finally win a Stanley Cup with McDavid.
So, in the end, partial credit.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8
Los Angeles Kings
Eliminate the Oilers in the first round
Stop us if you've heard this one before: The Kings are an excellent defense team (sixth in the NHL) that doesn't generate enough goal scoring (26th). They have a .600 points percentage so far in Anze Kopitar's farewell tour and are looking like a playoff team again.
Again, the law of averages would indicate that the Kings won't lose to the Oilers in a fifth straight opening-round series. This might be the best year to catch Edmonton, with a roster that might not match the depth of the ones that rolled to the Stanley Cup Final in consecutive seasons.
In hindsight, I goofed up this prediction with specificity. I should have said "the Kings advance further in the playoffs than the Oilers" on the off chance Edmonton doesn't qualify. Which, given the current state of things ...
Bold prediction confidence rating: 7
San Jose Sharks
Macklin Celebrini hits 90 points
What a season so far for Celebrini. At one point he led the NHL in points as he powered the Sharks to respectability for the first time in years. No one on the team is more deserving of the giant teal shark jaws necklace that Ryan Reaves is forcing players of the game to wear while topless during postgame interviews.
Celebrini had 30 points in his first 20 games. Based on his current scoring pace, Celebrini would end up in the neighborhood of 123 points in his second NHL season. That's not exactly going to tamp down the Sidney Crosby comparisons.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 9
Seattle Kraken
Kraken are the trade deadline's top seller
The Kraken have been better than expected at the start of the season, amassing a .605 points percentage in 19 games and sitting in a playoff spot as play began on Thursday. New coach Lane Lambert has them playing a confident and effective defensive game.
But Seattle doesn't exactly generate all that much offense (28th in the NHL). Does that mean they eventually slip down the standings in a competitive division and conference, or do they remain close enough in the playoff hunt that they aren't looking to move any of their half-dozen pending free agents like Jaden Schwartz, Jordan Eberle, Mason Marchment or Jamie Oleksiak?
Bold prediction confidence rating: 5
Vancouver Canucks
Elias Pettersson cracks 30 goals again
Free of J.T. Miller's dressing room tormenting, many expected this to be a bounce-back campaign for Pettersson on the Canucks. His offensive numbers are up year-over-year, with 19 points in 21 games. Unfortunately, his goal-scoring rates are more aligned with last season (0.8 goals per 60 minutes) than when he was good for 30 goals in a season. Pettersson had six goals in those 21 games, which projects to around 24 for the season.
I never thought I'd say this, but I'd much rather Elias Pettersson have Kiefer Sherwood's goal total right now.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 4
Vegas Golden Knights
Knights make the conference finals
It's hard to get a handle on how good the Golden Knights can be given their lineup absences, which have included Mark Stone, Adin Hill, Noah Hanifin and William Karlsson.
We know how incredible Jack Eichel has been (24 points in 19 games) and that Mitch Marner is still doing his 200-foot player thing (21 points, plus-10). We also know that Shea Theodore has stepped up big time in the absence of Alex Pietrangelo and that Ivan Barbashev and Pavel Dorofeyev have absurd shooting percentages. We know they are adept at picking up points in the regular season, placing second in the Pacific through 19 games.
If they're at full capacity in the postseason, I think the Golden Knights can emerge from the Pacific this season, especially if Mark Stone can go. They're fundamentally sound and physical as they come. But yeah, I'm a little worried we'll never see them at full capacity.
Bold prediction confidence rating: 8