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          NHL futures: Risers, fallers and why playoff odds haven't caught up to the Sharks

          Can Macklin Celebrini and the San Jose Sharks make the Stanley Cup Playoffs? Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire
          • Sean AllenDec 1, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
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              Sean Allen is a contributing writer for fantasy hockey and betting at ESPN. He was the 2008 and 2009 FSWA Hockey Writer of the Year.
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          The Winnipeg Jets, Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers strutted into the season with swagger -- implied playoff chances of 75%, 83%, 94% and 92%, respectively.

          But as the games piled up, the confidence meter has been recalibrated: Winnipeg is coasting at 57%, Toronto's dreams have cooled to 41%, Florida is clawing back at 67% and Edmonton is still running at a healthy 85%.

          Take a look at the current standings, and you won't find any of these teams in a playoff position. Instead, the Chicago Blackhawks, Seattle Kraken, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers are occupying those spots to start December. Their preseason implied playoff chances were 6%, 14%, 14% and 25%, respectively, yet after two months of action (roughly 29% of the season), the markets have only nudged them upward: the Flyers are at 49%, the Penguins at 26%, the Kraken at 24%, and the Blackhawks are still just at 13%.

          Admittedly, the current standings aren't a perfect gauge, as games played range from 24 to 27 and teams have faced very different opponents. But even a quick projection using point percentage, accounting for both strength of schedule played and remaining, can tack on projected points and normalize the standings.

          This method doesn't attempt to account for slumps, injuries, coaching changes or any of the other chaos generators that will shape the rest of the season. Instead, think of it as a way of projecting the remainder of the season if every team had just as much success as they've had so far.

          If strength of schedule has any sway, it's the San Jose Sharks who are getting the least love from the markets right now. By our simple strength-of-schedule calculation -- using point percentage of opponents faced and opponents remaining -- the Sharks have played the second-hardest schedule so far and have the easiest schedule going forward. And in the "same success continues" projection, it's San Jose that sneaks into the final playoff spot in the West.

          Yet they remain a contrarian bet: their odds have only drifted from 16-1 in the preseason to 11-1 now.

          In both the East and the West, we have to account for tighter standings this season with more overtime points being handed out. There have been an average of 2.28 standings points awarded per game so far. That compares to 2.21 for all of last season, 2.20 at last year's Thanksgiving mark and 2.23 in 2023-24.

          The difference from first (34 points) to last (24) in the East right now is a 10-point gap. Last Thanksgiving, it was 33 (Carolina Hurricanes) to 19 (Montreal Canadiens).

          Confidence from bettors is the quickest way for odds to start swinging, but it's hard to build any when almost everyone is bunched together. Parity keeps the markets cautious.

          Only four teams have seen a swing greater than 25% in their implied playoff chances from the preseason to now: the Maple Leafs (down 43%), Vancouver Canucks (down 30%), Panthers (down 27%) and Anaheim Ducks (up 43%).

          Expanding the cutoff to 20% only adds four more: the Nashville Predators (down 24%), New York Rangers (down 21%), St. Louis Blues (down 20%) and Flyers (up 24%).

          So maybe the markets aren't asleep at the wheel, maybe they're just staring at the same traffic jam as the rest of us. With everyone mashed into the same point cluster, even the big movers feel more like overcorrections than declarations. Until a few teams actually create daylight, no one's ready to plant a flag.

          But if you're hunting for value, this is the kind of gridlock you want. Parity makes the favorites look shakier, but it also leaves a few teams significantly underpriced. The Sharks projecting into a playoff spot while still sitting at 11-1 is a "someone forgot to change that line" special. The Blackhawks -- keeping that playoff spot warm for the Sharks -- at +700 aren't far off, either.

          In a season where everyone's stuck in the same lane, you're not betting on who's great ... you're betting on who finds the open road first.

          Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.

          Awards

          Similarly, let's have a quick check-in on the movers and shakers for the major NHL awards when it comes to implied percentage from the odds.

          Hart Trophy Risers

          Hart Trophy Fallers

          Norris Trophy Risers

          Norris Trophy Fallers

          Vezina Trophy Risers

          Vezina Trophy Fallers

          Calder Trophy Risers

          Calder Trophy Fallers