What's next in the NBA in-season tournament?
The Emirates NBA Cup wrapped its group stage Friday to set up four matchups, each with a trip to Las Vegas at stake: Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks and Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference bracket; Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs in the West.
But before the tournament tips off the knockout rounds Dec. 9, our panel of NBA insiders is breaking down another year of thrilling group stage play and previewing the quarters. Which superstar stood out from the rest across the first four games? Which surprise team will extend its Cup run?
And, most importantly, do any of these teams have a chance against OKC?
Your NBA Cup group stage MVP is _____.
Vincent Goodwill: Luka Doncic, strictly based on the two masterpieces he drew up over the past week. There was his in-town agitation of the LA Clippers, the 43-13-9 showing that had Kris Dunn so upset that it nearly sparked multiple altercations. Then, Doncic reminded the Dallas Mavericks what they traded away with a 35-11-5 performance that overshadowed Anthony Davis' return to Los Angeles. It's not Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's fault he barely breaks a sweat nowadays, but for purposes of this exercise, the Lakers have needed Doncic every night in every way during the Cup. And he has delivered.
Tim MacMahon: Doncic. This decision comes down to a couple of candidates who have earned a lot of honors in their careers: Doncic and Gilgeous-Alexander. They both put up silly stats -- albeit numbers that aren't unusual by their standards -- for squads that rolled through group play undefeated. Doncic averaged 36.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 10.5 assists while shooting 49.4% from the floor and 45.5% on 3s. Gilgeous-Alexander averaged more points (34.5) than minutes (33.0) on .589/.563/.860 shooting splits, plus he contributed 6.3 assists and 1.8 steals per game. As tempting as it is to keep SGA's MVP streak going after he won the regular season, conference finals and NBA Finals awards last season, we'll give the slight nod to Doncic here.
Dave McMenamin: Devin Booker. It's difficult to argue against Gilgeous-Alexander or Doncic getting top consideration, but let's give praise to a surprise candidate from a surprise Suns team. Booker had 7 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists in the fourth quarter against OKC on Friday to help cut what once was a 15-point deficit to one with under three minutes to go. The Thunder eked out a four-point win -- their narrowest victory since opening night -- and it was the Suns' only loss of the group stage. Along the way to going 3-1, Booker averaged 23 points, 7.8 assists and 6.0 rebounds and got Phoenix out of a group that included a Minnesota Timberwolves team that swept the Suns out of the 2024 playoffs. Booker, playing for a new coach with a new roster around him, has the Suns in playoff contention a fourth of the way through the season -- something few predicted after the franchise parted ways with Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal in the offseason.
Kevin Pelton: Gilgeous-Alexander. Although Doncic fared slightly better by my wins above replacement player metric in Cup games, I'd give the nod to SGA. After all, Gilgeous-Alexander had the better per-possession rating and was behind Doncic only because he played 26 fewer minutes. That can be attributed almost entirely to the time SGA has spent on the bench in fourth quarters celebrating blowout Oklahoma City wins.
Ohm Youngmisuk: Gilgeous-Alexander -- it has to be. The league's reigning MVP has the defending champs looking even more unbeatable. Gilgeous-Alexander is cooking and on a mission to be even better than last season when he also took home Finals MVP. He's averaging 34.5 points, 6.2 assists and 58.9% shooting from the field in four Cup games so far. If Gilgeous-Alexander can lead the Thunder back to the Cup title game, it's hard envisioning the superstar going 8-for-24 from the field, including 2-for-9 from 3, like he did in last year's championship-game loss to Milwaukee.
The biggest surprise of group play was _____.
Stephen A. Smith weighs in on whether the Heat or the Magic are a bigger threat in the NBA's Eastern Conference.
McMenamin: The Heat finding a way to stay relevant. After the Jimmy Butler III fiasco last season and Tyler Herro being sidelined for a month to start this season after left ankle surgery, there wasn't much buzz for the Heat coming into their new campaign. However, their offseason trade for Norman Powell gave coach Erik Spoelstra a go-to scorer while Herro was out. Add wing contributions from Andrew Wiggins and Jaime Jaquez Jr. and the interior presence of Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware, and Miami is once again a team nobody wants to see on the schedule. The Heat went 3-1 in the group stage, winning a close game against Milwaukee and blowing out the Bulls in the process.
Pelton: The Spurs winning West C without Victor Wembanyama for the final week of group play. The group of death proved as advertised, featuring two of the NBA's top three teams by point differential (the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets) with no team worse than 8-11. After defeating Houston with Wemby, San Antonio shook off his calf injury absence to take a pair of must-win road games in Portland and Denver.
MacMahon: The Raptors' run through Group A. Toronto has been the league's most pleasant surprise this season, period, establishing itself as an early contender in the East after consecutive seasons of 50-plus losses. The Raptors cruised through group play unbeaten, including road wins by double-digit margins over the Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks, teams that were anticipated to be at or near the top of the conference standings.
Youngmisuk: The Raptors taking Group A -- and not the Cavaliers, a team many expect to be one of the top three in the East. Toronto routed Atlanta on opening night and then dropped the next four games but has since won 13 of 16, including all four in the Cup. If Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram can take the Raptors to the Cup title, The North absolutely should raise a banner next to their 2019 NBA championship.
Goodwill: The Magic taking full advantage of what was in front of them. Mercilessly pounding the 76ers last Tuesday to create the wide point differential on top of winning every game was impressive enough, but they've taken care of business despite not having the smoothest start to the season. And three of their four Cup wins came without Paolo Banchero. Should he return from his groin injury in time for the knockout stage, their run will gain even more intrigue.
The most intriguing quarterfinal matchup is _____.
Youngmisuk: Heat-Magic. Give me a Florida rivalry for a ticket to Vegas. After dropping the season opener at Orlando, Miami and its revamped offense has won 13 of 19 games. The Heat have scored at least 130 points seven times this season to average 123.6 per game, the second-highest total in the league. And they just got back Herro. Looking to rebound from a humiliating 55-point loss to end last season's first-round sweep, the Heat can continue their turnaround with a deep Cup run. On the other side, the Magic have been playing fast, rank eighth in offensive rating and are starting to regain their stingy defensive identity.
Pelton: Heat-Magic. Miami's attack is predicated on winning one-on-one, something that's not easy to do against Orlando's starting five. Although the Magic haven't been as strong defensively as last season, they have the second-best defensive rating in NBA Cup play. I'd expect a lower-scoring game than Miami's top-ranked pace would typically imply.
Goodwill: Suns-Thunder. Nobody would call Phoenix the most exciting team, but it won't be an easy out if Friday night's thriller in Oklahoma City was any indication. (SGA actually had to play in the fourth quarter and sweat a bit to squeak out a win!) The players the Suns can throw at the MVP makes this a fun rematch, and we'll get to see Booker once again try to figure out the hellacious OKC defense that hounded him into a 5-for-13 performance. It's smart to assume he'll be more aggressive this time.
MacMahon: Spurs-Lakers. Will Wembanyama be back from his calf strain in time for the Spurs' trip to Los Angeles? If so, it's difficult to top the star power of Wemby vs. Doncic. They obviously won't match up with each other, but it's the most dominant defensive force in the league against arguably its best offensive player. Doncic had 35 points and 13 rebounds in a 118-116 win over the Spurs on Nov. 5, but his 9-of-27 performance from the floor wasn't pretty.
McMenamin: Knicks-Raptors. What a great prompt to revisit the 2023 trade between the two franchises that sent RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a 2024 second-round pick to Toronto and OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn to New York. Only Anunoby remains with the Knicks, and the rugged 3-and-D forward is a key part of a team with NBA Finals aspirations. Barrett and Quickley are both starting for Toronto, and that second-round pick was used on Jonathan Mogbo, a 6-9 power forward who showed a flash of promise as a rookie last season. Though it appears the swap has worked for both sides, the Raptors are currently ahead of the Knicks in the East standings and will host the quarterfinals matchup at Scotiabank Arena -- so things are looking up for The North.
Don't be surprised if _____ in the knockout rounds.
MacMahon: Oklahoma City cruises to the Cup title without its MVP playing a second in the fourth quarter of an elimination game. Gilgeous-Alexander did have to come up clutch in close wins over the Timberwolves and Suns in the Thunder's past two Cup games, but those have been the exceptions. He has sat out 11 of 21 fourth quarters during Oklahoma City's 20-1 start, which is the NBA's most enviable version of load management.
Goodwill: The Heat shock everyone. No lead is safe anymore -- 3-point shooting and breakneck offenses have made sure of it -- and no team truly embodies that like this season's Heat. They're no longer the offensively inept team that wins with point totals in the 90s, and with Herro getting healthy to aid the already-rolling Powell, the Heat could surprise some folks. It might not be as sustainable in a seven-game series, but for a game, Spoelstra can cook up just about any game plan against any opponent.
McMenamin: Wembanyama shines on this new stage if he's cleared to return. Yes, the thought of San Antonio beating the Lakers in L.A. to earn a trip to Las Vegas and then presumably needing to knock out the defending champs to get to the Cup final is a tall task. But then again, the Spurs could have their 7-foot-4 difference-maker back in the lineup. Wembanyama's stellar season has been put on hold since Nov. 14 because of a left calf strain, but if he is back on the court in time for the quarterfinals, he can cause enough problems on both ends of the floor to help the Spurs make a run.
Youngmisuk: The Raptors continue their surprising start. Never underestimate the added motivation of winning the Cup and how that might inspire a team, especially one that few expected to be here. I'm looking at the Raptors as the ultimate spoiler for the Cup party. Barrett is out at least for the quarterfinal, but that gives one of their unheralded role players a chance to show how hungry they are for that bonus prize money.
Pelton: The Magic are in no rush to risk Banchero's health for the NBA Cup. In the long run, the strongest version of this Orlando team will include Banchero, but his absence has helped Desmond Bane find his place in the offense and Anthony Black become a bigger contributor. Including the game in which Banchero was injured at New York, the Magic have gone 7-2 without him. One of the two losses came when two starters sat out the second leg of a back-to-back, and the other was to Houston in overtime.
Of the other seven teams, _____ has the best chance of knocking off OKC.
MacMahon: The Lakers? They have three stars capable of carrying them to a win on any given night. But it's hard to have any real confidence in the Lakers -- or any other team -- upsetting the juggernaut Thunder. After all, the Thunder handed the Lakers a 29-point loss in the teams' only meeting so far this season. No, LeBron James didn't play that night, but neither did OKC's All-NBA forward Jalen Williams.
McMenamin: Look at MacMahon picking the Lakers -- somebody check the sky for winged swine. I'll go with the Knicks. They have an offense that can keep up with the high-scoring Thunder as one of only five teams in the league -- OKC included -- averaging more than 120 points this season. And the Knicks have a group that has played in plenty of big games over the past couple of seasons; they should be able to kick it up a gear.
Youngmisuk: The Lakers. The way Doncic is playing, he can single-handedly take over a game and has the firepower to match reigning MVP Gilgeous-Alexander shot for shot. Doncic knows how to beat Oklahoma City. He and the Mavs are the last team to beat the Thunder in a playoff series two postseasons ago. And this time, Doncic will need to beat OKC once. James will be closer to having his conditioning back, and Austin Reaves is getting hot again after scoring 92 combined points in back-to-back games earlier this season.
Pelton: The Lakers. Come 2026, the Thunder would enjoy home-court advantage for a potential semifinals matchup. Under the current format, however, that game would be played in the Lakers' home away from home at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The Lakers benefited from a crowd advantage en route to winning the inaugural NBA Cup in 2023, and that would figure to be even stronger this time around.
Goodwill: The Raptors. They actually fit the profile of a team that could give the Oklahoma City machine some trouble in a one-game setting -- namely long and rangy wings to throw at Gilgeous-Alexander and the returning Jalen Williams. Toronto keeps teams away from clean 3-point looks (sixth in defensive efficiency) and has two players who can create plenty of offense in the open floor in Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram.
Fact or fiction: Both 2026 NBA finalists are playing in the Cup quarters.
Pelton: Fiction. It's a fair debate whether the East champion will come from that quartet. In fact, projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index have it as almost exactly 50-50. However, it's no sure thing that the West champion will come from these four teams despite the fact that Oklahoma City is easily the most likely team to reach the Finals.
MacMahon: Fiction. I don't see the East's eventual champion in this field. The Detroit Pistons might be the best bet to win that conference, especially if Detroit's front office uses its flexibility and full complement of future first-round picks to make an aggressive move before the trade deadline to add to the talented young core.
Goodwill: Fiction. It was tempting to choose the preseason favorites in the East, the Knicks, to reach the Finals. They haven't disappointed, but they haven't exactly impressed in the first quarter of the season. Plus, any surprise contender can go all-in with personnel moves and make this spring look really interesting.
McMenamin: Fiction. While a Finals matchup from this pool of teams would be a worthy one, there are too many good teams in both conferences not included to definitively declare that we won't see them in June. Particularly, Denver in the West and Cleveland in the East.
Youngmisuk: Fiction. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets and Kevin Durant and the Rockets aren't in the Cup quarters. The Cavs, Pistons and Wolves -- remember that Minnesota has been to two straight West finals -- also could make a run. If anything, trying to win the Cup can take a toll on a team during the grind to reach the Finals.