Victor Wembanyama is one of the NBA's best players, but does he have a real chance to win his first MVP award this season after missing the past two weeks with a calf injury?
The odds are against him -- he enters December at 150-1 to win the award on DraftKings Sportsbook -- but the San Antonio superstar shouldn't be counted out.
Wembanyama is as unique a player as the NBA has ever seen. If you look up his profile in basketball-reference, his nicknames are listed as "Wemby", "The Extraterrestrial" and "Alien". The last two, given affectionately, are because us mere earthlings don't know what else to call a man who is 7-foot-4 (and still growing) that plays like a tall shooting guard on offense (complete with crossovers and Shammgods off the dribble, and Stephen Curry range) while also defending at a historically elite level.
Wembanyama's 26.2 PPG ranks 15th in the NBA. His 12.9 RPG leads the league. And his 3.6 BPG is well in front of anyone else. He is top 5 among centers with 4.0 APG and top 10 at the position with 1.7 3PG, and he does all this while shooting over 50% from the field and 85% from the line.
And more importantly, Wemby's Spurs are winning. They currently sit fifth in the Western Conference at 13-6, but they are within two games of the No. 2 seed. As we approach the three-quarter pole of the season, the Spurs are on pace to win 56 games. Wembanyama's level of individual brilliance, with that type of team success, would absolutely get him deep into the MVP conversation.
So, why is Wembanyama unmentioned in MVP discussions and considered by the sportsbooks to be an extreme longshot to win?
Some of it is because the rest of the MVP field is really stacked. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and three-time top-5 MVP vote getter Luka Doncic are all off to historic starts of their own for teams currently ahead of the Spurs in the standings.
But the plot twist that really holds back Wemanyama's MVP chances is that he is currently injured, and to be eligible to win an NBA award the player must have played in at least 65 games. That means, no player that misses more than 17 games in a season can even be in the MVP vote.
Wembanyama missed his seventh straight game on Sunday. Wembanyama was set to "miss multiple weeks" with a calf strain as of Nov. 17, and there hasn't been a public update from the Spurs on Wemby's expected return date. The open-ended nature brings the game limit into play. If Wembanyama were to miss three weeks, meaning he would be back by the end of this week, then he would have missed 10 games and would thus still be eligible to compete for the MVP. The timing of the NBA Cup also works to Wemby's favor, here, with the Spurs not having any official games from Dec. 10-17. Wemby would have to be out until after Christmas in order for this absence to reach 17 games.
But, even if Wembanyama returns before 17 absences, there is the possibility that he could need to miss more games over the remaining marathon of the NBA season. Ultimately, the games limit may be disqualifying, but it may not. I would imagine that both Wemby and the Spurs organization will be more focused on winning and doing well in the playoffs than on his eligibility for individual awards.
Still, that eligibility has value, and if it's close it could be motivation to keep him in the lineup. Because the 65-game threshold is also applied to other awards, like the Defensive Player of the Year that would seemingly be Wemby's to lose if he meets the games criterion, as well as the All-NBA votes. And Wemby is still on his rookie contract. To be eligible for a supermax contract on his next one, he would need to achieve some specific individual awards like making an All-NBA team, winning Defensive Player of the Year, or winning MVP.
And at the end of the day, the extreme longshot nature of his +15,000 MVP odds could make it worth taking a flier on a player who has a legitimate chance to lead the league in two of the five major categories for a team that could challenge for 60 wins. Wembanyama is dealing with an injury, but that can happen to any player at any time. And when he is on the court, Wembanyama has shown that he is more than capable of playing at an MVP level.
Most Valuable Player
Leader: Nikola Jokic (+145)
In the hunt: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+160), Luka Doncic (+300)
Longer shots of interest: Giannis Antetokounmpo (35-1), Cade Cunningham (45-1), Wembanyama (150-1), Anthony Edwards (200-1)
Jokic, SGA and Doncic are all in the midst of historic individual seasons on teams winning at an elite level. With the way they are playing, any would make excellent MVP choices and the winner likely comes from among the group. But these futures are awards with a five-month lead time before being announced. As such, I am unlikely to bet on futures with odds shorter than 10-to-1 because the risk/reward/time arc is not rewarding enough to me.
Instead, I am more likely to take fliers on long shots that, in the right circumstances, have a chance to win. Antetokounmpo and Wembanyama are the two other NBA players with individual production comparable to the leading trio. Both have missed games of late due to injury. Antetokounmpo's injury seemed to derail his teammates, and the team has fallen into a losing streak. We discussed Wemby's injury above. Cunningham's individual production is a bit behind the leaders, but his Pistons are currently the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and if they can maintain that for the season he has a chance to work himself into the MVP discussion down the line.
Rookie of the Year
Leader: Cooper Flagg (-110)
In the hunt: Kon Knueppel (+120)
Longshots of interest: Derik Queen (16-1), VJ Edgecombe (20-1), Ace Bailey (100-1)
For the first couple weeks of the season, Edgecombe was the most impressive rookie. Queen had some very strong games in the last few weeks. And, in what is a deep and talented rookie class, there are many others that have already shown they can and will produce in the near future.
But Flagg was the overwhelming favorite to win this award when the season started, and his former Duke teammate Knueppel has been the only other rookie to consistently produce at as high a level. At the moment, they are the worthy contenders in what appears to be a two-player race.
But it is a long season, and we are barely a month in. Again, if I were betting, I would look to the longer shots. Queen would be of the most interest to me because he has shown he can put up numbers and the Pelicans seemingly have space for him to continue to grow into a lead role. Edgecombe has flashed as well, but the 76ers have a lot of productive players that seemingly are getting healthy as the season progresses, which lowers Edgecombe's ceiling compared to the others. Bailey hasn't been as consistently productive as the others, but he has the upside to grow into the franchise player for the Jazz as soon as this season.
Sixth Man of the Year
Leader: Jaime Jaquez Jr. (+300)
In the hunt: Reed Sheppard (+850), Ajay Mitchell (10-1), Jerami Grant (12-1)
Longer shots of interest: Anthony Black (30-1), Anfernee Simons (30-1), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (40-1)
This award tends to have more swings than the others, with players routinely coming from far down in the standings to challenge or win the award in the end. Think Naz Reid a couple seasons ago, who came from off the ballot to win the award with a strong spring.
Jaquez has played well to start the season, but Sheppard has been on a tear of late and has the talent and role to eventually surpass Jaquezz. Mitchell had a strong start to the season, but it isn't clear whether the return of Jalen Williams and the other talented Thunder wings might eat into his production.
The longshots are interesting. Black, the No. 6 overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft, has started playing to his level in recent weeks. Simons was the starter and leading producer for the Trail Blazers in recent seasons, and he has shown flashes of that level of production of late off the Celtics bench. And Alexander-Walker has stepped into a starting role and is producing the best numbers of his career for the Hawks, but is expected to return to a bench role once Trae Young is healthy. If this occurs, and Alexander-Walker continue to produce well off the bench, his numbers as a starter could boost his averages and earn him better odds to win this award later in the season.
Defensive Player of the Year
Leader: Chet Holmgren (+125)
In the hunt: Victor Wembanyama (+350), Evan Mobley (+600), Amen Thompson (+900)
Longshots of interest: Scottie Barnes (30-1), Draymond Green (35-1), Ausar Thompson (35-1)
This is the one award in which I might consider betting on a player with better than 10-1 odds, because Wembanyama would be an overwhelming favorite to win if we knew he would meet the 65-game threshold. Therefore, I find value in betting him to win at +400 when otherwise he would be the odds-on favorite.
The others listed here are all strong defensive players, and if Wembanyama doesn't meet the games threshold, any of them could move up to win the award. The Thunder have by far the best team defensive rating in the league, which is why Holmgren is the favorite. But they also play elite team defense, it isn't just Holmgren carrying the load. So, I look at a player like Barnes with interest; he has long shot odds, but he is leading a surprising Toronto team to a tie for the third-best defensive rating in the league.