The 2022-23 NHL regular season was a record-breaking campaign for the Boston Bruins as a team and a historic season for Connor McDavid, who scored like it was the early 1990s.
But the eliminations are piling up -- both from playoff series losses (including the Bruins), and those who didn't qualify. Those clubs are now looking ahead to this offseason, where the draft, free agency and trades will help put them in a better position to compete in 2023-24.
Read on for a look at what went wrong for each eliminated team, along with a breakdown of its biggest keys this offseason and realistic expectations for next season. Note that more teams will be added to this story as they are eliminated from the playoffs.
Go through every team's profile or skip ahead to your favorite team using the links below:
Note: Profiles for the Atlantic and Metro teams were written by Kristen Shilton, while Ryan S. Clark analyzed the Central and Pacific teams. Stats are collected from sites such as Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey. Projected cap space per Cap Friendly.
Jump to a team:
ANA | ARI | BOS | BUF
CGY | CAR | CHI | COL
CBJ | DAL | DET | EDM
FLA | LA | MIN | MTL
NSH | NJ | NYI | NYR
OTT | PHI | PIT | SJ
SEA | STL | TB | TOR
VAN | VGK | WPG | WSH
Stanley Cup Finalists
June 13: Vegas Golden Knights
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $3,462,516
2023 draft picks: 1st, 3rd, 3rd (BUF), 6th, 7th
What went right?
No one player is responsible for winning a Stanley Cup. It takes a collective, and operating as a collective is exactly how the Golden Knights captured the first championship in their six-season existence. While the top line led by Jack Eichel was successful, every line combination provided another dimension. And while the Golden Knights had a pair of previous Cup winners in Alec Martinez and Alex Pietrangelo on the back end, all of their defensive pairings played a crucial role.
Vegas also had the goaltending. Remember, the playoffs started with Laurent Brossoit taking over from rookie All-Star Logan Thompson, who has been injured since late March. Brossoit then sustained an injury himself, which led to coach Bruce Cassidy turning to Adin Hill. Going with Hill became the sort of decision that would further galvanize the Golden Knights' chances to win the Stanley Cup. Hill, who won only 16 games in the regular season, won 11 times in the playoffs and joined the list of Golden Knights players who were in the running for the Conn Smythe Trophy.
Together, it was a group that could win in any fashion. Want to give them a lead? OK. That's a choice. You take a lead? Just give it time; they had several playoff victories in which they came from behind after trailing by a goal. Did you have a star player? Didn't matter. The Golden Knights used a defensive approach that saw them take on the five players who entered the Cup Final leading the NHL in postseason points: Roope Hintz, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard and Matthew Tkachuk. Outside of McDavid, Vegas kept each of those players to zero points in at least one game.
Keys to the offseason
The Golden Knights are in a position to return the majority of the team that won the Stanley Cup. But that's not to say there aren't questions. What becomes of Hill? Or Ivan Barbashev, for that matter? Also, what is the plan when it comes to Robin Lehner?
CapFriendly projects the Golden Knights will have a little more than $3.4 million in available cap space in an offseason in which Barbashev and Hill are pending unrestricted free agents. Brett Howden, who was on the second line this postseason, is a pending restricted free agent.
Barbashev told ESPN during Stanley Cup media day that he wants to come back to Vegas. The Athletic reported Hill was offered a new contract, but wanted to wait until after the season to have those discussions. Though he's arbitration-eligible, Howden is basically under team control until summer 2025.
Signing Hill to a new deal would give the Golden Knights three NHL goaltenders under contract for next season. That includes Lehner and Thompson, who both have two years left on their deals. Lehner, who missed the entire season after having offseason hip surgery, carries a $5 million annual cap hit whereas Thompson will earn $766,667 a year. Fellow goalies Jonathan Quick and Brossoit are also pending UFAs. If anything, the Knights' 2022-23 campaign showed that having multiple highly competent netminders on the roster is a wise idea -- their approach to the position will be under close scrutiny this offseason.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Until something drastic happens, the Golden Knights are among the top Stanley Cup contenders. They have their entire core locked up long-term, and appear to be finding success with homegrown players on team-friendly deals such as Paul Cotter. Given their enviable depth, the Golden Knights have a reasonable chance to repeat as champs -- and to stay in the mix for years.
June 13: Florida Panthers
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $10,262,499
2023 draft picks: 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th (ARI)
What went wrong?
Florida willed its way into a postseason spot after overcoming a disappointing start to the regular season. That led the team on a run to the Stanley Cup Final that (almost) no one saw coming. And the Panthers were dominant at times along the way. In the end, it wasn't a lack of talent that did in the Panthers against Vegas; it seemed like they just ran out of gas.
In the Cup Final, Florida had top-heavy scoring (from Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart) without as many depth contributions to match. The team's goaltending was up and down in the series as well, with Sergei Bobrovsky starting out 0-2 with an .826 SV% and 5.52 GAA before rebounding. But those numbers through Game 1 and Game 2 undeniably hurt the Panthers and were frankly unexpected given how terrific Bobrovsky had been since taking over from backup Alex Lyon in Florida's first-round series against Boston.
And of course, Bobrovsky couldn't carry the day alone. The Panthers' power play went quiet. Tkachuk was playing hurt. Unlike Vegas, Florida didn't get the offensive help it needed from its defense. Those things add up.
Still, the Panthers gave it all they had. GM Bill Zito didn't add any pieces at the deadline because he said he believed in the Panthers as they were constructed. In some ways, Zito was right to stand pat. Could Florida have used more blue-line depth? Sure. The real killer, though, might have been the seven overtime games Florida played -- including that marathon four-OT thriller against Carolina in the Eastern Conference finals. The Panthers were 7-0 outside regulation -- but that's a fair amount of wear and tear to bear.
Keys to the offseason
The Panthers need a (small) refresh. Trading for Tkachuk last summer was a big, bold move that paid off. Florida could use another one like it. After the 2023-24 campaign, several players including Reinhart and Brandon Montour will hit free agency. Reinhart and Montour both had strong seasons and could be up for extensions sooner than later. Locking them in would give Zito a better idea of the cap space he'll have left to target supporting players.
Then there's a decision to be made in net. How will Florida balance Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight, who left the team to join the NHL's Player Assistance Program in February, going forward? Bobrovsky had a career renaissance of sorts in the playoffs, but has a history of streaky regular-season play. The Panthers can't afford another season in which goaltending comes into question like it did this time around. The team was lucky Lyon got hot when Bobrovsky was sidelined by an illness. There is time now for Florida to assess every position, determine how to help its players improve and try to establish a more complete tandem to hold up in the crease next season.
Florida will have to reel in defensive help, too. Outside of Aaron Ekblad, Montour and Gustav Forsling, the Panthers don't have much experience signed to the blue line past this season, and that could spell trouble for a team that just gave up 3.32 goals per game in the regular season and was leaky in the postseason too.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Florida proved its mettle in the final stretch of this season. If the Panthers can build off that momentum to start next year they will be in solid shape. Once Zito makes the necessary adjustments -- particularly when it comes to the defense -- the Panthers should be an Atlantic Division contender again next season, and one that won't be waiting until the final week to punch its playoff ticket.
Eliminated in conference finals
May 29: Dallas Stars
Lost to Golden Knights in six games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $7,394,671
2023 draft picks: 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Solving problems in real time is how the Stars overcame losing two overtime games in the first two rounds to advance to the Western Conference final. They tried doing it against the Vegas Golden Knights -- only to find the problems were too insurmountable.
A Game 1 overtime loss set the stage for the Stars to find a counter. And they did; it's just that the Golden Knights found success in the tightest of spaces. Such as Game 2, when Jack Eichel pressured Ryan Suter and within seconds, a 2-1 lead became a 2-2 tie before the Golden Knights won 3-2 in overtime. Stars coach Pete DeBoer -- along with a number of his players -- said they saw progress in Game 2 compared to Game 1.
Whatever intentions they had were washed away in Game 3, when captain Jamie Benn was ejected just less than two minutes in for a cross-checking match penalty that set up the Golden Knights' 4-0 win and the chance for a sweep. Game 4 was the Stars' most complete game of the series, and the overtime victory gave them a glimmer of hope. Game 5 provided another jolt of energy and brought the series back to Dallas, but it appeared they simply ran out of gas against an elite Golden Knights side in Game 6.
Keys to the offseason
How do pending unrestricted free agents Evgenii Dadonov and Max Domi fit into the Stars' future plans, given scant cap space? Dadonov arrived in a trade and was one of the more consistent offensive presences for a team that was a bit too reliant on its top-six forwards at times. Dadonov had three goals and 15 points in 23 regular-season games, while scoring four goals and 10 points in 16 playoff games.
As for Domi, he also arrived in a trade, with the idea that he could provide scoring depth. His two goals and seven points in 20 regular-season games did not have the desired effect. But then Domi transformed into one of the Stars' most important postseason players, with three goals and 13 points in 18 games.
Dadonov and Domi are part of the Stars' seven-player pending UFA class, while Ty Dellandrea is the only restricted free agent in need of a new deal. It's possible the Stars could find a way to move some cap space in an attempt to keep either Dadonov or Domi, if not both. It's also possible that a franchise that has found great success drafting and developing could feel they have suitable replacements in their pipeline.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
They have a 109-point scorer in Robertson, one of the premier young defensemen in Miro Heiskanen, a prototype goaltender in Jake Oettinger, an ageless wonder in Joe Pavelski along with arguably the most underrated forward in hockey in Roope Hintz. Oh, and a farm system that just keeps replenishing with new talent. The Stars are in a championship window that looks like it could be open for quite some time.
May 24: Carolina Hurricanes
Lost to Panthers in four games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $24,123,083
2023 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd (PHI), 4th, 5th, 5th (VAN), 6th, 6th (CHI), 7th
What went wrong?
It wasn't entirely shocking how Carolina's offense dried up in the Eastern Conference final -- but that became a significant problem. The Hurricanes had been a suffocating defensive team all season and throughout the playoffs. It's what allowed them to survive the loss of scorers like Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen, Max Pacioretty and others along the way. Carolina also boasted a strong power play for much of the playoffs (19%) but success there tapered off against Florida, too. Once the conference finals became a goalie duel, it was clear where the Hurricanes were outmatched.
That's not to say Carolina didn't put forth a terrific effort. It's difficult to identify faults in what they produced from start to finish, regular season right through each postseason series. And that of course leaves lingering questions: What if Carolina scored the overtime winner in either Game 1 or Game 2 versus the Panthers? What if Sergei Bobrovsky didn't stand on his head in Game 3 to produce the first postseason shutout of his career?
Carolina's margin for error was wafer thin. What went wrong was ultimately the inability of scorers like Sebastian Aho, Jordan Martinook and Seth Jarvis to score when it mattered most. Depth, in the end, let the Hurricanes down.
Keys to the offseason
Carolina will have to address its goaltending. Both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta are pending unrestricted free agents and rookie Pyotr Kochetkov likely isn't ready to be a full-time starter. Whether the Hurricanes want to retain one of Andersen or Raanta to play with Kochetkov -- or scour the market for another veteran -- will take some consideration and a hefty chunk of cap space.
From there, the Hurricanes will want to guard against another disappointing ending to their season because of scoring depth. Carolina couldn't have anticipated losing Pacioretty for basically the entire season because of injuries; acquiring him last summer was supposed to be a huge boost to their top-six forward group all season. He's another player hitting unrestricted free agency.
With veterans like Jesper Fast, Jordan Staal and Paul Stastny all hitting free agency as well, there is room for Carolina to grow and change things throughout their lineup.
And what of Jesse Puljujarvi? He's a pending restricted free agent ... with potential? Or not so much? Realigning the team's structure up front could offer Carolina more peace of mind as they approach being a contender again next season.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Carolina was dominant for 98% of the 2022-23 season. It's not hard to imagine them in the top-tier mix again come fall. The Hurricanes are well-coached by Rod Brind'Amour and his staff, they have excellent defensive habits -- and across the board buy-in -- and with the right additions at forward and in net, the re-tooling should have Carolina streaking once more on a long 2024 playoff run.
Eliminated in second round
May 15: Seattle Kraken
Lost to Stars in seven games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $18,334,257
2023 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (TOR), 2nd (WPG), 3rd, 4th (COL), 5th, 6th, 6th (WSH), 7th
What went wrong?
Finding consistency was never the issue. Finding ways to harness that consistency became the biggest challenge facing the Kraken in their second-round loss to the Dallas Stars.
The two-way reliability they used to upset the Colorado Avalanche in the first round proved harder to sustain when it came to the Stars. In the first three games of the series when the Kraken took a 2-1 lead, they found enough scoring chances, but the biggest key was goal prevention: they held the Stars to 3.3 goals per game (Dallas is at 3.75 goals per game overall). Yet what happened in Games 4 and 5 were also a harbinger of sorts, with the Kraken allowing 11 combined goals in those contests.
Then there was the goaltending. The Kraken were 10th from the bottom in team save percentage in the regular season. Everything Philipp Grubauer did in the first round -- finishing with a 2.31 goals-against average and a .925 save percentage -- helped the Kraken upset the Avalanche. But the fact Grubauer entered Game 7 with a 3.78 GAA and a .865 SV% against the Stars was one of the challenges that proved too hard to overcome. He had his moments in Game 7, but ultimately Jake Oettinger proved the superior netminder in this series.
Keys to the offseason
Will Borgen and Morgan Geekie made the jump from fringe players to nightly fixtures up front, while defenseman Vince Dunn may have had one of the more underrated individual efforts by any player in the NHL in 2022-23. All three of them are pending restricted free agents, with the idea that Dunn, who finished with a career-high 14 goals and 64 points, could be the most expensive on his next deal. What helps Kraken GM Ron Francis and his staff is they have what CapFriendly projects to be $18.464 million in cap space this summer.
The Kraken will have other roster decisions to make when it comes to pending unrestricted free agents such as Ryan Donato and Carson Soucy. But at what point do the Kraken begin tapping into some of their youth to fill those gaps? Of course, it starts with what Calder Trophy front-runner Matty Beniers can do in his second full season. What could next season look like for Tye Kartye? Does Ryker Evans make the team? And what is the realistic expectation for 2022 No. 4 overall pick Shane Wright?
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
They went from a lottery team in Year 1 to a playoff team in Year 2. At this point, it appears anything could be possible for the Kraken in Year 3. What is evident, however, is that the Kraken have shown they are a playoff team that could compete for a division crown, as well as a return to the postseason, in 2023-24.
May 14: Edmonton Oilers
Lost to Golden Knights in six games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $2,862,500
2023 draft picks: 2nd, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Being consistently inconsistent might be the most succinct way to describe what went wrong for the Oilers in the second round.
In their wins against the Golden Knights, the Oilers were more than just prolific. They executed the sort of defensive approach that limited scoring chances against a team that had several players finish with more than 10 goals in the regular season.
But in their losses against the Golden Knights, their defensive principles were tested while goaltender Stuart Skinner was pulled in both Game 4 and Game 6. Getting back into those games was made even more difficult by the fact Warren Foegele was the only player not named Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid to score in those three losses before the Oilers were eliminated.
Keys to the offseason
The Oilers have $10 million coming off the books heading into next season, but have less than $3 million in projected cap space -- and need to sign restricted free agent defenseman Evan Bouchard to a new contract. Yes, this is one of the difficult situations the club has to navigate as they are in the midst of their window as a top Cup contender.
Bouchard is the starting point. The trade that saw Mattias Ekholm come to Edmonton saw Tyson Barrie head in the other direction. In turn, Bouchard became a top-pairing option who also quarterbacked the NHL's most dangerous power play. It led to him finishing with 34 points in 29 combined regular-season and playoff games following the swap. Young defensemen like Bouchard are not only getting paid but they are also signing long-term term contracts for their second deals; this could be a tricky path ahead.
One way the Oilers can compete within the bounds of the salary cap is finding talented players that will play on team-friendly deals. That's what made Klim Kostin, Ryan McLeod and Bouchard so valuable. But all three of them are in need of new contracts as pending RFAs. Meanwhile, trade deadline acquisitions such as Nick Bjugstad, Mattias Janmark and Derek Ryan are pending unrestricted free agents whose value was boosted by the fact they helped the Oilers manage the cap. Will any of them be back?
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
There's no question that the Oilers will be top Cup contenders again, with a few familiar caveats. The first being they're in a Western Conference landscape that has seen the Avalanche win in 2022, while the Golden Knights, Kraken, Kings and Stars will all be strong again next season. The second, and most crucial, is the Oilers are also caught in that space between trying to find players on those cheap contracts who balance out the elite players on expensive deals. Striking that balance -- and possibly getting more consistent goaltending -- will go a long way in determining their fate a year from now.
May 12: Toronto Maple Leafs
Lost to Panthers in five games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $7,456,050
2023 draft picks: 1st (BOS), 5th, 6th
What went wrong?
When Toronto needed its star players most, they were nowhere to be found. That's the best explanation for how the Leafs flamed out in spectacularly cruel fashion against the Florida Panthers in just five games.
The Leafs battled past the Tampa Bay Lightning to advance for the first time in a postseason series in almost 20 years. None of that momentum carried into the second round, where Florida repeatedly punched Toronto in the gut and the Leafs kept letting it happen.
Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander failed to score in the first three games vs. Florida as Toronto fell behind 3-0. By the time Nylander and Marner picked up their pace in Game 4, it was too late to salvage the Leafs' postseason.
The energy, the passion, the killer instinct Toronto showed in its first-round series was all but forgotten in Round 2. The Leafs looked tired, and often listless, and like maybe they didn't even believe in themselves. In the end, the result reflected how much effort Toronto appeared to put into its last gasp at a postseason push.
Keys to the offseason
This summer could be a doozy for Toronto.
General manager Kyle Dubas is on an expiring contract. Deciding what to do about that will be team president Brendan Shanahan's first priority. Does Dubas want to come back after another deflating end to a season? Will Shanahan offer to extend Dubas? And if so, for how long? Dubas and Shanahan built this team together around a core that has repeatedly let them down when it matters most (i.e., in the playoffs). They'd have to be on the same page about how to fix that problem before committing to keep their managerial marriage alive.
If Dubas' future isn't in Toronto, then the search begins in earnest for who will replace him -- and that will open the door to even more change for the Leafs.
There are a number of on-ice personnel decisions that need to be made as well. Toronto has several important pending unrestricted free agents, including Alex Kerfoot, David Kampf, Ryan O'Reilly and Michael Bunting, plus starting goaltender Ilya Samsonov is a restricted free agent. Who stays and who goes from the Leafs' mix? What direction is this team going to head in after yet another season closes with a collapse? The players have a say too. How many free agents can the Leafs keep in their midst when the results continually aren't there?
And then the largest looming question of all: Will anything be done with -- or about -- the Leafs' core? They are undeniably excellent regular-season performers. How long can Toronto pretend that's good enough? How will they account for the lack of return on investment yet again? Is it time to make a move away from those four? There's no easy answer -- but many weeks and months ahead to consider the options.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Toronto should be a playoff contender again next year. Regardless of what changes are ultimately made, there's a nucleus there that should carry the Leafs back to a postseason spot. Barring a series of franchise-altering trades, there is too much riding on key players in their prime for Toronto to accept anything less.
May 11: New Jersey Devils
Lost to Hurricanes in five games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $34,705,000
2023 draft picks: 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
The Devils were one of this season's greatest comeback stories. They roared to life after a brief stumble out of the gate, went on a franchise-record 13-game win streak and finished with a 110-point season. Then New Jersey surprised by overcoming a 2-0 series deficit to topple the New York Rangers in their first-round matchup. Astounding stuff.
But the Devils are still a young team, and that youth really began to show in the second round against the Carolina Hurricanes. While New Jersey got some electrifying -- and memorable -- performances from Jack Hughes and his brother Luke, the team didn't always handle the playoff pressure well. Learning to win can be a process, and the Devils are still in it. New Jersey took too many penalties down the stretch, and it threw the team off kilter.
The Devils also got leaky goaltending from starter Vitek Vanecek in the postseason. For a time, New Jersey successfully turned to Akira Schmid -- he was a true game-changer against New York -- but the Devils' luck in net ran out when Vanecek and Schmid both struggled mightily against the Hurricanes' veteran shooters.
There's no single reason why New Jersey's magical run came to an unsatisfying conclusion; it's all part of the process that will make these Devils a better club in the seasons ahead.
Keys to the offseason
One major question for the Devils is whether Meier -- whom they acquired from the San Jose Sharks in February for a package of players, prospects and a first-round draft choice -- is in the team's long-term future. He's a pending restricted free agent owed $9 million on his qualifying offer. That's a steep price for one more year of service, but might New Jersey try to entice Meier to stay on a longer-term (and more economical) pact? Meier produced nine goals and 14 points in 21 regular-season games for the Devils and clearly this is a club on the rise.
How to proceed with Meier is a large, looming decision for the Devils that could dictate what else they do to improve the roster moving into next season. Jesper Bratt, who was fourth in regular-season scoring for the club with 73 points, is also an RFA this summer and due for a sizable raise.
New Jersey has other contract negotiations on the horizon. Miles Wood, Damon Severson and Ryan Graves are among the unrestricted free agents, and GM Tom Fitzgerald will want to be strategic in how he's building around the Devils' burgeoning core. New Jersey took big steps this season and no one wants to see a step backward.
Fitzgerald and the front office must also assess what the Devils' identity is moving forward, then support that to the best of their ability. New Jersey's resurgence might also make it a more desirable landing spot for free agent candidates, opening a door to even more possibilities when it comes to adding the right depth of character for next season's (potential) playoff run.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
The Devils are in a great spot. How much can they improve on that over the next few months? Possibly a lot. Yes, they'll have to prove next season that this dominant campaign wasn't a one-and-done situation. But based on the talent already available -- and prospects on the way -- the Devils should be right in the mix of top-tier Eastern Conference clubs again come fall.
Eliminated in first round
May 1: New York Rangers
Lost to Devils in seven games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $10,069,642
2023 draft picks: 1st (DAL), 3rd (COL), 6th, 6th (WPG)
What went wrong?
The New Jersey Devils made the New York Rangers look old(ish). That first-round series pitted a young, hungry Devils squad against a Rangers group that squandered a 2-0 lead by struggling to keep up with a dynamic opponent hitting its stride.
How was it that a roster packed with talented names such as Patrick Kane, Vladimir Tarasenko and Artemi Panarin failed for so long to find the back of the net against 22-year-old rookie netminder Akira Schmid until the gates opened in Game 6? Those stars didn't always align on the power play either, which started off on a 4-for-10 run through Game 2, then went 0-for-10 through Game 5 before going 1-for-4 in Game 6 and 0-for-4 in Game 7. Much like last year, it felt like the Rangers just ran out of gas.
In the regular season, New York was consistent enough on both sides of the puck to be an Eastern Conference heavyweight all the way through. Igor Shesterkin didn't have to be superhuman to save the Rangers. GM Chris Drury added Tarasenko and Kane to give New York the playoff punch it needed, but those players didn't pan out quite as expected (Tarasenko had three goals in the postseason; Kane gathered one). Shesterkin's excellent play deserved support the Rangers couldn't provide. And speaking of punch, the physicality factor petered out for the Rangers, too. New York never made the adjustments and remained too one-dimensional to keep their season alive; instead, it wilted toward an early summer.
Keys to the offseason
The Rangers reeled in rentals with Tarasenko and Kane. Both are hitting unrestricted free agency and, given the lack of playoff chemistry and results, seem unlikely to re-sign in New York. Further retooling will be necessary for this forward group, particularly after the lackluster showing of its top six in the postseason. New York needs more edge to go with increased firepower. Targeting players who can add both would elevate the Rangers in a way that was clearly lacking against the Devils.
Other key contract negotiations will be with defenseman Niko Mikkola (another UFA) and K'Andre Miller (a restricted free agent). The latter will be an especially important one because Miller has been an integral piece on New York's back end, and at 23, he should be a key building block for the future. What will his next deal look like, and what effect will that have on reshaping New York's blue line from here? Mikkola didn't have a great playoffs, but there's upside to a 27-year-old who can be a physical, cost-effective option to keep around.
Then, as with many teams, there's a question of identity. Have the Rangers lost theirs? It's hard not to wonder given how the postseason played out. When the chips were down, there wasn't much pushback from New York, not in ways we've seen the team grind through adversity before. If there's any concern over dressing-room chemistry, it needs to be nipped in the bud.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
New York has great young talents up front, a Norris Trophy winner leading its blue line and a top-tier, Vezina-worthy goaltender manning the crease. Basically, the Rangers should be just fine. This postseason disappointment is a rallying cry for how the franchise must evolve to keep pace in the increasingly competitive Metro. Yes, New York has to make changes. But the bones of this team will help carry them back to contender status.
Apr. 30: Colorado Avalanche
Lost to Kraken in seven games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $13,225,000
2023 draft picks: 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Depth. The Seattle Kraken had it in bunches, whereas the defending champions were limited when it came to finding consistent offensive contributions beyond their star players.
The Kraken had 14 different players score at least one goal in this series. The Avs, by comparison, had nine players who scored, but they were mostly either top-six forwards such as Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen or top-four defensemen such as Cale Makar and Devon Toews.
Ultimately, that lack of depth did them in.
Keys to the offseason
There are several questions the Avalanche front office must answer this offseason. Perhaps the most notable: Could J.T. Compher be the next unrestricted free agent who leaves Denver for a more lucrative offer elsewhere? The past few offseasons have seen the Avs lose important players to the open market (most notably Nazem Kadri this past summer) because of limited cap space. The 2022-23 season saw Compher, who scored a career-high 52 points, eventually emerge as their second-line center.
In total, the Avs have nine pending UFAs and four pending RFAs in need of new deals. Bowen Byram and Alex Newhook, who were first-round picks back in 2019, are part of that pending RFA class. Byram, when healthy, has been a top-four option, whereas Newhook has spent more time as a bottom-six forward.
And then there's Gabriel Landeskog. The Avalanche captain missed the entirety of the 2022-23 season along with the playoffs because of lingering issues with his right knee. It's possible that Landeskog's recovery could extend into next season. Having a healthy Landeskog would give the Avs another forward capable of scoring between 25 and 30 goals, and would bolster their top-six options.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
The Avalanche are still in their championship window. What's different about this stage of their window compared to the past few years is their cap space. Their front office has always been money conscious. It's just that the Avalanche must now get even more creative with how they spend those cap dollars while also trying to find ways to hit on prospects who can contribute while still on their entry-level contracts.
Apr. 30: Boston Bruins
Lost to Panthers in seven games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $10,587,500
2023 draft picks: 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th, 7th (LA)
What went wrong?
The Presidents' Trophy curse strikes again. Boston did everything right in the regular season. It quite literally led the league in nearly every important statistical category, set a record for wins (65) and points (135), blew past all comers and looked to barely break a sweat.
That's all well and good -- in the regular season. Playoffs are a different beast. Boston didn't look as hungry as the Florida Panthers in their first-round series. It didn't have the same bite-back Florida did in the face of adversity.
But the biggest issue for Boston had to be the implosion of its goaltending. Linus Ullmark went from Vezina Trophy front-runner to sieve-like down the stretch against Florida, with fewer and fewer timely saves. The Bruins couldn't outscore their own mistakes or defend hard enough to keep more pucks out of the net. And so, their historic, promising season ended with a catastrophic collapse.
Keys to the offseason
Boston has a long list of pending unrestricted free agents to sift through. The conversation starts with Patrice Bergeron. Is the Bruins' captain ready to hang up his skates? Or will he be back on another one-year deal? That answer may not be obvious immediately, but it's a vital one. Ditto on David Krejci. Both he and Bergeron were injured heading into the postseason, and while it would be tempting to return, there are health considerations to make, too.
Boston has to decide on its trade deadline additions too. Tyler Bertuzzi, Garnet Hathaway and Dmitry Orlov need new contracts; which, if any, will stick around long term? Goaltender Jeremy Swayman is an upcoming restricted free agent; how can the Bruins negotiate a new deal with him as well? GM Don Sweeney will be busy figuring that all out.
Then there's managing the playoff disappointment. It's hard for the Bruins to not hang their heads right now, knowing the opportunity left behind by failing to perform at their best in the postseason. The offseason will require reflection on that, and an honest assessment of where the cracks really showed up. Was the writing on the wall all along with Ullmark, a goaltender who benefitted from excellent players in front of him and didn't face extreme pressure often until the playoffs? How can Boston retool from here without upsetting too much of what worked so well in the regular season? These are the more existential topics that should occupy the Bruins now.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Boston has work to do picking up the pieces of its postseason. If Sweeney can be vigilant there and identify what went wrong, while selecting which free agents to keep and which to let explore the market, the Bruins should come right back as a powerhouse.
Apr. 29: Tampa Bay Lightning
Lost to Maple Leafs in six games
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $2,400,000
2023 draft picks: 6th, 7th, 7th (ANA)
What went wrong?
Cracks started showing in the regular season. Tampa Bay started the 2022-23 campaign searching for a new identity of sorts, with Ryan McDonagh and Ondrej Palat -- two stalwarts -- no longer in the fold. Then, toward the end, coach Jon Cooper was literally benching his superstars for not performing up to the club's usual standard.
Nevertheless, Tampa Bay came out hot against the Toronto Maple Leafs with a resounding Game 1 victory. Then the wheels fell off in Games 2 through 4. Uncharacteristic mistakes late in games put Tampa Bay behind the eight ball, and an all-too-human Andrei Vasilevskiy couldn't bail them out. Erik Cernak's absence on the blue line exposed weaknesses there, and the Lightning really missed the veteran presences that McDonagh and Palat brought in recent seasons. After a rally in Game 5, they couldn't put it all together again in Game 6.
The easy answer is that fatigue caught up to the Lightning and they just physically and mentally ran out of gas. But there's also been an abundance of turnover within their group, and the chemistry Tampa Bay has displayed in seasons past during stretches of adversity wasn't as obvious this season.
Keys to the offseason
The Lightning won't have much cap space to wield this summer. The first priority will be figuring out how to get more -- or maximizing what they have. Veterans Alex Killorn, Corey Perry, Ian Cole and others are all hitting unrestricted free agency; how much of that old guard can the Lightning afford to lose while embracing the next wave of their franchise's youth? And frankly, how much choice will GM Julien BriseBois have in retooling his team's roster? Tampa Bay has exactly three draft choices in 2023 -- one in the sixth round and two in the seventh. That's basically zero capital for BriseBois to use meaningfully. But it won't preclude him from making a major trade if that's the necessary route to breathing new life into the lineup.
Which brings the Lightning back to a question of identity. Who or what is this team in the aftermath of so much success with the same -- now aging -- core? How can they pivot and lean into what they do well to squeeze the most out of the players they're already paying? If roster turnover isn't in the cards, then it will be on the Lightning's established depth to bounce back and perhaps even redefine themselves. There's no shortage of comeback stories for Tampa Bay to emulate in the process of finding a new path towards reinvention.
This should be a reflective few months for the Lightning. They pushed the envelope to maintain contender status for years. It's caught up to them now in some ways. The silver lining is that finally, they aren't playing late into the spring, so there's time to take a breath -- and thoughtfully decide what's next.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
The Lightning will be back in the playoff mix next season. There's too much talent on their team to think otherwise. Given the extra recuperation time players will have this offseason, it's not hard to imagine Tampa Bay as a top-flight contender in the Eastern Conference next season -- granted, of course, that BriseBois can retool where needed and address what gaps became all too apparent down the stretch this season.
Apr. 29: Los Angeles Kings
Lost to Oilers in six games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $2,549,583
2023 draft picks: 2nd, 3rd (PIT), 4th, 5th, 6th
What went wrong?
"Close but not close enough" might be the most succinct way to describe what ultimately led to the Kings getting knocked out in the first round.
They had enough to draw level after giving up two goals in Game 2 but could never pull ahead. They lost a three-goal lead in Game 4, only to lose in overtime, and could never find that game-tying goal in Game 5. And it's not like the Oilers' power play did them any favors either, with the Kings having a playoff-low penalty kill rate.
Keys to the offseason
Several members of the Kings' core are under contract for at least one more season. Gabriel Vilardi, however, is not one of them. The 23-goal scorer is one of six pending restricted free agents, while trade deadline additions Vladislav Gavrikov and Joonas Korpisalo are pending unrestricted free agents. The Kings will likely have to free up money somehow to at least re-sign Vilardi in addition to whatever they decide with Gavrikov and/or Korpisalo.
Another item that could make their offseason intriguing is what happens to Cal Petersen. The 2022-23 season was a challenging one for Petersen, who was in the first year of a three-year deal worth $5 million annually. The combined struggles of Petersen and Jonathan Quick, who was traded at the deadline, proved to be so great that the Kings were forced to create a new plan in net for the rest of the season, starting Pheonix Copley for extended stretches before trading for Korpisalo.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
There's no denying the Kings are in a competitive window. Years of drafting prospects, developing them and adding players from the outside, all while building around Drew Doughty and Anze Kopitar, is how they got in this position. But the first round remains an issue. The Kings have not reached the second round since they won their most recent Stanley Cup in 2014. Could next year be the one that sees the Kings take the next step?
Apr. 28: Minnesota Wild
Lost to Stars in six games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $12,334,745
2023 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (VGK), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Scoring was thought to be an issue heading into the postseason, considering the Wild were among the lowest-scoring teams that qualified for the playoffs. And that was evident in Games 4 and 5 when they scored twice in the former and were shut out in the latter.
But what made their first-round exit so jarring was how a team that made defensive play part of its identity came into Game 6 having allowed 17 goals in the previous five, which was the fifth most of any team this postseason.
Keys to the offseason
Have you looked at the Wild's cap situation? Many of their cap challenges stem from the fact that Zach Parise and Ryan Suter will go from costing them $12.743 million in cap space to $14.743 million over the next two seasons. CapFriendly projects they will have a little more than $3.4 million in available cap space in an offseason in which they have eight unrestricted free agents and an additional seven restricted free agents. It leaves the Wild with several decisions when it comes to how they can manage the cap.
Matt Dumba is one of those UFAs. So are a number of the players they acquired over the course of the season, such as Ryan Reaves, Marcus Johansson, John Klingberg and Gustav Nyquist.
Their RFA class is most notably led by Filip Gustavsson, who was paired with Marc-Andre Fleury to give the Wild one of the strongest goaltending tandems in the NHL. Puck-moving defenseman Calen Addison and forward Sam Steel are also RFAs in need of a new deal.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Predicting what could happen with the Wild depends on how they can manage their cap issues. Part of that plan is continuing to find success with players on team-friendly deals, which is what they did with Ryan Hartman and Frederick Gaudreau -- before Gaudreau signed a five-year extension carrying a $2.1 million average annual value. Matt Boldy and Gustavsson are other good examples, but as noted, Gustavsson is due for a raise. Finding more players who can fit into that approach could greatly aid the cap-strapped Wild -- and ensure they're among the West's top contenders again.
Apr. 28: New York Islanders
Lost to Hurricanes in six games.
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $6,911,667
2023 draft picks: 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
The Islanders became a team that just couldn't finish. It happened to occur at the worst possible time of year. New York battled its way into a wild-card playoff spot and could have made a real series out of it against the Carolina Hurricanes -- if it weren't for the lack of general scoring touch. That was the Islanders' primary issue all year.
While they did score the fastest four goals in NHL playoff history (over a span of 2:18) in a Game 3 victory, that didn't mean much compared to all the other periods where New York failed to light the lamp. And it wasn't for lack of chances. The Islanders' simply couldn't get their 5-on-5 shots into the twine, and the team's stars stubbornly refused to shine (Bo Horvat with one goal? Mathew Barzal with two? Not ideal).
Also holding New York back was an atrocious power play (6.7%) that was worst among postseason teams. In the regular season, it was Ilya Sorokin often bailing the Islanders out of trouble. But Sorokin wasn't superhuman in this series (.923 SV%, 2.77 GAA) and that, along with everything else, ultimately doomed New York to failure.
Keys to the offseason
New York has to find consistent scoring. It was an Achilles heel they never overcame and cost the team dearly from start to finish this season. Horvat signed a long-term extension with the club after being acquired before the trade deadline, and New York has to hope that $8.5 million annual investment starts paying off. Ditto for Barzal, at $9.5 million per season. Theoretically, the Islanders should be in good shape at the top of their lineup; the key is to add more reliable offensive assets lower down who can support those stars.
There's also a matter of the team's goaltending. Sorokin projects to remain in the No. 1 role while Semyon Varlamov is set to hit free agency. Will the Islanders keep Varlamov -- who was a solid backup at 11-9-2 with a .913 SV% and 2.70 GAA -- or pick up another option from elsewhere? Sorokin was tied for the fifth-most starts (60) in the regular season, and fatigue may have played a factor in his playoff performance. New York would be wise to target a goalie they believe could serve more in tandem with Sorokin, to take some of the more undo pressure off that might have been his -- and the club's -- ultimate undoing.
Finally, could New York be heading for another coaching change? It feels strangely possible. Isles GM Lou Lamoriello needs to be sure Lane Lambert remains the best voice to guide New York moving forward. The Islanders being in playoff contention could have bought Lambert -- who just took over behind the bench this season -- another campaign. But given the lack of playoff success from his rookie head coach, Lamoriello may double back and look for a more veteran option with experience to manage what talent the Islanders have in their ranks.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
The Islanders have work to do re-tooling their roster. While turnover for its own sake isn't the goal, there is something to be said for a team avoiding stagnation, too. If Lamoriello can assess and address the Islanders' obvious offensive issues -- and New York avoids some of the injury problems plaguing them in the past -- there's reason to believe the Islanders will get back to the postseason. With the right alterations, they could even rise to becoming a heavy hitter in the Metro.
Apr. 27: Winnipeg Jets
Lost to Vegas Golden Knights in five games
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $12,992,143
2023 draft picks: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 5th (NYR), 7th
What went wrong?
Going from one of the strongest defensive teams in the regular season to one that allowed the most goals per 60 minutes and was in the top five in goals allowed per game is part of the reason why the Jets crashed out of the first round in five games. It was a contrast given how they opened the series with a 5-1 win against the Vegas Golden Knights. The fact they scored five goals while also providing defensive support around Connor Hellebuyck created the initial impression the Jets could pose a formidable challenge to the West's No. 1 seed.
Instead, they allowed 18 goals over their next four games. They scored the first goal in Games 2 and 4 but struggled to hold on to those leads. They lost All-Star defenseman Josh Morrissey to a series-ending lower-body injury after he logged 1:14 in ice time in Game 3, and that wasn't the only injury issue they faced: Winnipeg was without Nikolaj Ehlers for the first four games, Mark Scheifele left Game 4 with an injury and rookie Cole Perfetti, who had 30 points in 51 games, was on IR since February. Even though they were 11th in shots allowed per 60 in the regular season, the Jets allowed the fourth-most shots per game this postseason, which created even more work for Hellebuyck.
Only the Minnesota Wild and New York Islanders scored fewer regular-season goals than the Jets among playoff teams. That's what made their five-goal effort in Game 1 so enticing. It presented the possibility the Jets may have unlocked something, and the fact they were averaging the seventh-most goals per game in the playoffs was proof. Ultimately, it was not enough for a team that was eliminated after allowing the most goals in 5-on-5 play at the time of their departure.
Keys to the offseason
Where do the Jets go from here? Do they choose to keep this team together and add a few players to address problem areas? Or do they believe it is in their best interest to start looking ahead to their future instead? Those were questions the Jets were facing before the season started, and the way the season closed reignited the discussion.
There are other items the Jets must address. Pierre-Luc Dubois is a restricted free agent who had the strongest offensive season of his career. What does a new contract look like for him? There are also decisions to be made on a pair of RFA defensemen in Dylan Samberg and Logan Stanley.
Then there's Vladislav Namestnikov, who is an unrestricted free agent and whose nine points in 16 regular-season games -- with an additional two in the first round -- make a case for why he could be someone the Jets may want to retain.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
It appears so much of the Jets' 2023-24 plans could depend upon what happens in the offseason. Maybe the front office believes it can find the scoring help needed to make the Jets more consistent. Or they might feel it is more prudent to head in another direction altogether. Either way, it's an interesting situation to be facing with Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler all heading into the final year of their contracts.
Non-playoff teams
Published on April 12.
Apr. 12: Anaheim Ducks
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $39,973,333
2023 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (BOS), 2nd (COL), 3rd, 3rd (MIN), 4th, 5th, 6th
What went wrong?
An argument could be made that losing promising puck-moving defenseman Jamie Drysdale to a season-ending injury just eight games in to the season was a sign of a doomed campaign. The Ducks failed to reach the heights they achieved during the 2021-22 season when there was a time in which it appeared as if they could make a run at a playoff spot.
Drysdale's injury set the stage for the Ducks to be in the discussion for which team had the worst 2022-23 season. They gave up the most goals per game, scored the second-fewest goals per game, and they were percentage points away from owning both the poorest penalty kill and power play in the entire NHL.
Typically, seasons such as this come with the hope that it can be parlayed into possibly winning the draft lottery. If they do, the Ducks could have a future centered around Connor Bedard, Drysdale, Mason McTavish, Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras, among others. Or if they land at No. 2, there's a chance it could be Adam Fantilli instead.
Keys to the offseason
Other than what could happen with the draft lottery and the draft? There's a lot. Namely, what happens with Ducks coach Dallas Eakins? He signed a one-year extension last offseason, but questions about his future have been raised given the Ducks just endured one of the most challenging seasons in franchise history.
Ducks GM Pat Verbeek must also sort out new contracts for Drysdale, Terry and Zegras. Each of them are pending restricted free agents who are part of the team's long-term plans. Drysdale might have the most nuanced negotiations considering the 2021-22 season is his only full campaign, whereas Terry and Zegras have obviously played in many more games. It still amounts to Verbeek working to secure three players central to the organization's long-term aspirations.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Next season has a chance to be a formative one for the Ducks in terms of evaluating the next steps of their rebuild. They have three defensemen who are pending unrestricted free agents, which means there could be a chance for the Ducks to see both defensive improvement in addition to seeing which of their deep pool of defensive prospects could be ready to take the next step.
Apr. 12: Arizona Coyotes
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $26,243,690
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (OTT), 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (EDM), 3rd (NYI), 3rd (WSH), 4th, 5th, 5th (VGK), 6th, 6th (CBJ)
What went wrong?
The Coyotes were the lowest-scoring team in the NHL last season. This season? They scored the sixth-fewest goals. And similar to many teams in their position, they were also prone to surrendering goals in bunches. It's why the Coyotes allowed the ninth most goals overall.
Then there's the jarring reality of how they played at Mullett Arena compared to anywhere else in the league. The Coyotes won 20 home games, and that is the sort of figure normally reserved for playoff teams or teams that just fell short of the postseason. Yet the fact they finished with the fewest road wins in the NHL, with seven, offers another explanation as to why this season saw them finish near the bottom of the league standings.
Yet the most complex part of all this? It still was not enough for them to finish with the fewest points and attain the strongest odds to win the draft lottery. The Coyotes entered the final month of the regular season with the sixth-best odds to win the lottery because they were more than 10 points better than the Chicago Blackhawks and Columbus Blue Jackets, the two teams leading the chase for the No. 1 pick.
Keys to the offseason
As of now, there appear to be two notable questions when it comes to Coyotes' offseason plans. The first being: What happens at the NHL draft? They've been part of the collective of teams that have positioned themselves for the chance to draft the presumed No. 1 pick in Connor Bedard or the potential No. 2 pick in Adam Fantilli. Both are considered to be the sort of potential franchise-changing players that the Coyotes could add to a blueprint that is concentrated on a better future.
Potentially drafting a franchise-player, however, might not be the most important item facing the Coyotes this offseason. Thus the second question: What will happen with the Coyotes' arena situation? On May 16, there will be a special election to determine whether the Coyotes can start building a new arena and entertainment district in Tempe. That could give the Coyotes a permanent home -- with the realization that a failed vote would create questions about what comes next as an alternative.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Players such as Clayton Keller, Matias Maccelli, J.J. Moser and Nick Schmaltz are examples of why the Coyotes believe this latest attempt at a rebuild could work. Even then, it comes with the understanding that it could still take a while for the Coyotes to build out the sort of prospect base that allows them to climb up the standings. And because of that, it's why the Coyotes could use their cap space to sign players who they might eventually trade for more draft capital while they continue to build one of the NHL's more promising farm systems.
Apr. 12: Buffalo Sabres
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $19,459,763
2023 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 2nd (PHI), 3rd (LA), 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Buffalo's playoff hopes ultimately ran out of runway in the final week of this regular season. That was nearly a best-case kind of scenario for the Sabres. This season was meant to be a step forward in Buffalo's rebuilding process, and it gave the Sabres' young core a true taste of meaningful hockey.
But there were struggles along the way. Buffalo's goaltending lacked consistency again, with Eric Comrie and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen both finishing with save percentages below .900. That contributed to the Sabres being top-10 in goals against on the season.
Buffalo also showed its youth during lengthy, difficult skids, including a potential season-shifting stretch going 2-8-2 through late February into March. Like with most non-playoff squads, the Sabres dealt with a fair share of injuries as well which didn't help their cause. In the end, falling just short of the postseason did much more to help then hurt Buffalo. The positives of this campaign far outweigh the negatives.
Keys to the offseason
The Sabres have their core locked up long term. What GM Kevyn Adams has to decide is how some of the club's veterans fit into Buffalo's next chapter. Captain Kyle Okposo, Zemgus Girgensons and Vinnie Hinostroza are all UFAs this summer. Will any of them be back? And if not, what does that mean for the team's leadership group? Who will step up and fill the void, especially if the Sabres choose to name a new captain right away?
It's imperative for Adams & Co. not to rush their rebuild along, but based on how the Sabres performed this season they could be trending ahead of schedule.
Another critical decision will be about who's in net. Craig Anderson is a pending UFA who likely won't be back. That leaves Comrie, Luukkonen and incoming sensation Devon Levi to battle it out for the starter's crease. Adams has to be confident in that group given how unreliable goaltending has been for Buffalo in recent seasons. Levi is just 21 years old; while he looked impressive in late-season action, can he handle being a No. 1 already? There are similar questions for the 24-year-old Luukkonen. The Sabres are settled most everywhere else on their roster. Sorting out the goalie situation is paramount.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Buffalo should emerge as a playoff team next season. The Sabres have enviable offensive and defensive weapons, a trusted coach in Don Granato and with a little tinkering by Adams in the offseason, Buffalo should have confidence in its goaltending and leadership cadre, too. That's likely to be a successful recipe.
Apr. 12: Calgary Flames
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $386,667
2023 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Creating scoring chances was not the issue for the Flames. Their underlying metrics show they were second in shots per 60 minutes, while also ranking eighth in high-danger scoring chances and scoring chances per 60, per Natural Stat Trick calculations. It's just that there was a bit of a disconnect, given the Flames were a league-average team when it came to the fact they scored 3.18 goals per game. It also didn't help that newcomers Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri and MacKenzie Weegar were well below their point totals from last season.
Then there's what happened to Jacob Markstrom. Markstrom consistently struggled to be the goaltender who helped make the Flames such a formidable team a year earlier. In 2021-22, he finished with a 2.22 goals-against average, a .922 save percentage and a 10.8 goals-saved above expected, per MoneyPuck data. This season? Markstrom had a 3.00 GAA, a .889 save percentage and a minus-7.7 GSVA. And that's with a defensive unit that was top five in fewest shots allowed along with being top five in the fewest high-danger chances per 60 and top 10 in the fewest scoring chances allowed per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick's analysis.
Keys to the offseason
One area for the Flames to address is the future of ninth-year GM Brad Treliving. He is in the final year of his contract, with The Athletic reporting in March that Flames ownership spoke with Treliving before the start of the season with the idea they could speak again at some point later regarding next steps. He deftly managed an overhaul of the roster's top end last summer; will he get a chance to see it reach the postseason again?
Then there's the roster itself. CapFriendly projects that the Flames have less than $500,000 cap space. Part of that is due to Huberdeau, Weegar and goaltender Dan Vladar signing extensions that saw them receive substantial pay bumps. It's possible the Flames could create cap space by moving on from players.
But it also creates a greater need for players on team-friendly deals to produce, which plays into what makes the circumstances around prospects Matthew Coronato and Dustin Wolf, among others, even more intriguing. The Flames signed Coronato after the promising forward finished his season with Harvard, while Wolf lit it up for the AHL's Calgary Wranglers this season -- to the point that teammates were making the case he should be that league's MVP.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
It's likely the Flames could once again be in the hunt for a playoff spot. But much of that could hinge on whether they can find ways to connect their strong underlying metrics into scoring more goals or receiving the sort of goaltending that makes them harder to score against. To do that, they will need to create the necessary cap space to find the personnel who can help them in those areas.
Apr. 12: Chicago Blackhawks
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $40,336,543
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (TB), 2nd, 2nd (NYR), 2nd (OTT), 2nd (TB), 3rd, 3rd (DAL), 4th, 5th, 7th
What went wrong?
Quite a bit. To say the Blackhawks scored the fewest goals in the NHL this season tells only part of the story. They were last in shots per 60, goals scored per 60, scoring chances per 60, high-danger chances per 60 and were third from last in high-danger goals scored per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick.
A lack of scoring was not the only issue. Giving up goals was also a problem. On the surface, they were a top-10 team in terms of goals allowed. But their underlying metrics also reveal a much deeper problem. They were in the bottom five of shots allowed per 60, goals allowed per 60, scoring chances allowed per 60, high-danger chances allowed per 60 and were seventh in high-danger goals allowed per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick. There was also the fact the Blackhawks were and still are a team in transition.
All of the above is what made the "Will they? Won't they" narrative around the futures of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews one that would not go away. Kane was one of a number of players the Blackhawks moved at the trade deadline while there are still questions about Toews' future going forward.
Keys to the offseason
Chicago is another franchise that will have its offseason partially dictated by what happens with the draft lottery. Landing a player like Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli could strengthen what is already viewed to be one of the stronger prospect pools in the NHL. Getting either one of those two would also heightened what has the chance to be an important draft considering the Blackhawks have two first-round picks and eight picks in the first three rounds.
As for the copious amount of cap space? It's possible the Blackhawks could use some of that to sign players they feel can help them long term. There's also the possibility they could sign players whom they believe can help with their future aspirations by trading them at the deadline in order to gain more draft capital -- which was the case with Max Domi signing a one-year deal before he was moved to the Dallas Stars.
Then there's Toews. He's a pending UFA who is free to move to another team, stay with the Blackhawks or call it a career that saw him captain three Stanley Cup-winning teams.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
One of the more revealing items about the Blackhawks' setup for next season is they have seven players under contract who will earn more than $1.2 million. The rest of the team will be on six-figure deals. And for those players on cheap contracts? It could be a chance to show why they can be part of what the Blackhawks believe can be a brighter future.
Apr. 12: Columbus Blue Jackets
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $18,616,667
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (LA), 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (CGY), 4th, 4th (WPG), 5th (BOS), 7th
What went wrong?
Columbus was decimated by key injuries this season, plain and simple. Zach Werenski, Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine, Jake Bean, and on and on in a parade to the infirmary which clearly impacted the Blue Jackets' overall chances.
But injuries weren't the team's only problem. Even early in the season when relatively healthy Columbus lost nine of its first 12 games. Elvis Merzlikins rarely performed like the No. 1 netminder he's supposed to be, and that killed any momentum the Blue Jackets could find offensively -- which wasn't much to begin with. Columbus ranked in the bottom-10 of the league on the power play and were top-three in goals and shots against. That's no way to rack up wins.
Keys to the offseason
The Blue Jackets' freefalling their way to the NHL basement gives them an excellent chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in this spring's draft. That's where GM Jarmo Kekalainen's initial focus should land.
Columbus has two first-round selections, and that could turn into two potentially top prospects or one draftee and a possible flip elsewhere for immediate help. That decision may hinge on where Kekalainen sees the Blue Jackets headed from here. Can they rebound into contender-mode right away, or is Columbus tracking toward more of a rebuilding mindset?
The former option means addressing the Blue Jackets' back end in a big way. Columbus was in on Jakob Chychrun before he was dealt to Ottawa, and having traded Vladislav Gavrikov, there is a clear need to upgrade what the Blue Jackets have going. Kekalainen will have to decide if David Jiricek or Adam Boqvist are viable, every-night options in the top-four rotation, or if that sort of player will be found in a trade or free agency. In that case, he'd better get down to dealing.
Then there's a matter of replacing some of what Columbus lost in terms of veteran contributors. The Blue Jackets have seen key leaders out the door in recent seasons, from former captain Nick Foligno to Voracek most recently. When a club is coming out of a tough grind like this season, it's important to have some battle-scarred skaters around to remind the rest of the group that what transpired in the past doesn't have to define the future. That's a message Columbus needs to take loud and clear from whatever Kekalainen decides to do in the coming months.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Unless there's a major offseason overhaul -- with or without No. 1 overall pick Connor Bedard -- Columbus doesn't trend toward being a playoff team next season, either. That could change with the right infusion of new talent and with Merzlikins bouncing back into form. Right now there's a lot of "what ifs" standing in the way of a Blue Jackets resurgence.
Apr. 12: Detroit Red Wings
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $29,708,611
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (NYI), 2nd, 2nd (STL), 2nd (VAN), 3rd, 4th (MIN), 5th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Detroit's goal starting this season was to improve its team defense over 2021-22, and ultimately translate a busy offseason of key signings into a playoff berth. Ultimately, that wasn't meant to be.
The Red Wings' underlying numbers across the board didn't improve enough. Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider struggled through sophomore campaigns. Andrew Copp hasn't quite clicked. And that overall defensive improvement Detroit aspired toward failed to extend past a promising early commitment. All that, plus relying too much on Ville Husso to save the day, landed Detroit lower in the standings than expected.
Keys to the offseason:
The Red Wings have to define their goals here. After GM Steve Yzerman added in the last offseason, it looked like Detroit was done rebuilding. Then Yzerman was a seller at the deadline -- parting with Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Hronek and others -- which indicated perhaps Detroit isn't done restructuring.
Which is it now? Will the Red Wings be aggressive this summer again in adding to the fold and attempting to be playoff contenders in 2023-24? Or will Yzerman stay committed to this new retool, wait on prospect development, and then reassess?
That leads Detroit to the upcoming NHL draft, a critical threshold for Yzerman & Co. The Red Wings wield two first-round selections and three second-round choices. That's enviable capital that Yzerman must use to either a) hit on players the organization can successfully develop or b) flip for known commodities that will best position Detroit to be challengers now, as opposed to later. Outside of selecting Raymond and Moritz, the Red Wings haven't been excellent lately at the draft table. That has to change.
Regardless of which path Detroit takes, at minimum they need to figure out a reliable No. 2 goaltender behind Husso. Alex Nedeljkovic wasn't that this season, and it forced Husso into being on the league's most utilized netminders. A better balance in the crease will give Detroit more good nights from Husso, which should be the priority.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Detroit is at a crossroads. What path they choose will define the season ahead. The expectation should be that whatever way Yzerman decides to go, this time he'll see that philosophy through the entire season -- unless, of course, the Red Wings gave him a good enough reason not to.
Apr. 12: Montreal Canadiens
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $8,770,834
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (FLA), 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 4th (PIT), 4th (VGK), 5th, 5th (CGY), 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Technically, nothing. Montreal didn't expect to be a playoff team, and they weren't. What the Canadiens wanted was to be competitive, allow their young players to grow and ultimately continue a rebuild that began in earnest 12 months ago.
Montreal also battled through an extreme number of injuries and saw some of those performers on the rise -- including Arber Xhekaj, Juraj Slafkovsky and Cole Caufield -- miss extended time from the lineup. The Canadiens' primary intention though was to keep growing. In that sense Montreal did more right than wrong this season.
Keys to the offseason:
The Canadiens have promise. GM Kent Hughes' next task is deciding who's a real-deal, long-term piece for the franchise, and who might not fit the bill. Going through the roster and assessing a bevy of young talent will allow Hughes to make the best decisions possible at the draft and into free agency. That includes relying on the team's scouting department to scour as many tournaments and leagues as possible searching for who else Montreal could be in the market to bring on.
Montreal should also have money to spend. How will that fit into Hughes' plan? Veterans Jonathan Drouin, Sean Monahan and Paul Byron all become UFAs in July, and the Canadiens don't project to resign any of them. That will leave cap space for Hughes to dole out elsewhere based on where Montreal's biggest holes are to fill and also on what sort of timeline Hughes believes there is for the club to become more competitive.
Answering that question will be a key in itself for Montreal. Are they in for a low-and-slow crescendo here or will Hughes see enough potential in this group to fast-track a bit, take advantage of how Nick Suzuki, Caufield and others have emerged and surround them with complementary pieces?
And in doing so, could Hughes move some of those larger veteran contracts -- Brendan Gallagher or Mike Hoffman, for instance -- that would open the door for fresh faces? Montreal's attention is firmly on its future and these decisions will impact how smoothly the organization transitions there.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Montreal is unlikely to be a playoff team. If the Canadiens make smart decisions though, they could remain in the mix long enough to give that young core some invaluable experience playing meaningful hockey next March and April.
Apr. 12: Nashville Predators
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $13,045,524
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (EDM), 2nd, 2nd (PIT), 3rd, 3rd (SJ), 3rd (TB), 4th, 4th (TB), 4th (TOR), 5th, 5th (TB), 6th
What went wrong?
Struggling to find cohesion at the right time might be the most succinct way to describe what happened to the Predators. Their profile was that of a team that had problems consistently scoring goals, frequently gave up chances on the defensive end but had those issues largely masked by goaltender Juuse Saros, who was a major reason why they won games.
It was also the recipe for a team that was stuck in that middle ground of potentially falling short of a playoff spot, but also being too good for a lottery pick. That was evident in and around the trade deadline. Predators GM David Poile made the decision to concentrate on the future, and that's why he moved Mattias Ekholm, Tanner Jeannot and Nino Niederreiter to obtain draft capital. Poile also announced he was stepping down as GM and would be replaced by former Predators coach Barry Trotz this summer.
And yet, the Predators started winning and still faced questions about whether or not they could sneak into the playoffs after all. They made it to Game No. 80 still in the playoff hunt, but ultimately fell a little short.
Keys to the offseason
Poile was able to provide his successor with the sort of draft capital that could place the franchise in a position of strength very quickly, either using the picks to restock the prospect pool or dealing them away for veteran help.
As for what Trotz does beyond that draft capital, it remains to be seen. The Predators have the sort of cap space to add premium players if they believe they're not that far away from getting back into the playoffs.
One item to consider is the potential challenge Trotz could face with significantly altering the roster via trading away his own veterans. Matt Duchene has three seasons left on his contract at $8 million per year, while Ryan Johansen has two at the same AAV. Defenseman Roman Josi will have five years left on his contract that sees him earn a little more than $9 million annually, while fellow blueliner Ryan McDonagh has three years left at $6.75 million each.
Here's where it gets a bit philosophical: Is it about just getting back to the playoffs, or is it about building a team that can win some rounds once they get there? The Predators have not won a playoff series since the 2017-18 season. So is it better to add a few players who they feel can push them over the hump? Or do they feel it might be better to start anew by tearing the roster apart with the hopes that a long-term rebuild provides them with their desired outcome? It'll be a fascinating summer for this franchise.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Obviously this team got about as close to a playoff spot as a team can get without making it, so they have the talent to be in the wild-card mix again next season if they stay the course. But that projection will obviously swing big in one direction should Trotz elect to perform major surgery on this roster this summer.
Apr. 12: Ottawa Senators
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $13,550,953
2023 draft picks: 4th, 5th, 7th, 7th (NSH), 7th (NYR)
What went wrong?
Ottawa was unlucky in the injury department, and that may well have been the nail in their coffin. The Senators lost top forward Josh Norris (shoulder) for almost the entire season and top defenseman Thomas Chabot twice. Cam Talbot was hurt before the season even began. Anton Forsberg landed on IR. GM Pierre Dorion went all-out acquiring Jakob Chychrun to help get the Senators to the playoffs and he was quickly sidelined by a hamstring issue.
It was a lot. There were other obstacles as well -- Drake Batherson and Alex DeBrincat didn't always thrive as expected and Talbot wasn't the clear-cut No. 1 Ottawa hoped for -- and it all added up to a disappointing finish for the Senators.
Keys to the offseason
First off, Ottawa has a decision to make on DeBrincat. The pending RFA is owed a $9 million qualifying offer that may be too rich for the Senators given DeBrincat may not be interested in signing a long-term extension with the club. So Ottawa will have to explore the trade market and see if there's a willing partner to take DeBrincat on so they don't completely lose out on the investment (of a first-round and two second-round draft picks) they made acquiring him last summer.
Speaking of trades, Ottawa must also assess where it's at in the net. Forsberg was playing well before his season-ending knee injury. Mads Sogaard has shown some promise as well. Does that mean Talbot could be expendable? Will Dorion at least explore replacing him? Ottawa landed in the bottom-third of the league in goals-against this season and while that could be attributed to the pile up of defensive injuries, there's a need to feel more stable and confident in the club's goaltending, too. Who can ultimately provide that will be an important decision by Dorion.
The Senators are fortunate to have a stable of exciting young talents in Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Chabot, Norris and more. Dorion can't back down now from continuing to add around them. Chychrun was a great get and, when healthy, will make a big difference for the Senators next season. It's imperative that Dorion be aggressive in maximizing his current talent, especially after seeing what they were capable of in the final push to the finish line that nearly saw Ottawa sneak its way into the playoffs.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
A healthier Ottawa team could have made the postseason this year. There's no reason to think that the same won't be true next year. The Senators should enter training camp with playoff aspirations and join other up-and-coming Atlantic teams in unseating one -- or more -- of the division's old guard contenders.
Apr. 12: Philadelphia Flyers
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $8,029,809
2023 draft picks: 1st, 3rd (FLA), 3rd (NYR), 4th, 4th (EDM), 5th, 6th, 6th (OTT), 7th
What went wrong?
Philadelphia missed the playoffs for a fourth time in five years. The Flyers didn't have the talent available to compete at that level, not even when goaltender Carter Hart was putting on a show -- as he did often early on -- or when Philadelphia's offense sparked its way to some solid runs. The Flyers never maintained momentum, and ex-GM Chuck Fletcher's passivity at the trade deadline ultimately ended with his being fired and Philadelphia turning toward a two-pronged front-office scheme of one GM and one director of hockey operations. Some would argue that a directional shift should have been made sooner. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.
Keys to the offseason:
The Flyers can hit the ground running with management decisions. Danny Briere should have the "interim" tag removed from his GM title and begin the process of rebuilding Philadelphia for a more prosperous future. What will that look like? At their best the Flyers have been a physical, gritty, hard-working team that packs a wallop. Lately Philadelphia has been hamstrung by bad veteran contracts that haven't allowed the club to spread its wings. Now, with young players like Cam York and Owen Tippett on the rise, Briere's focus should be on surrounding those pieces with as much help as he can -- even if it means taking more time before the Flyers ascend again.
Philadelphia would rise faster though if Briere can offload some of those aforementioned weighty deals. If the Flyers are indeed keying on a larger re-tool then exploring the trade market for forward Kevin Hayes (signed through 2026-27 at over $7 million per season) is a top priority. After that, Philadelphia has to look at a) who it has in the prospect cupboard that can step in immediately and b) what other marketable assets it might have to dangle in front of other teams.
Coach John Tortorella took over in Philadelphia knowing there was work to do. But it's also not likely he's interested in presiding over a lengthy overhaul that doesn't include at least the prospect of being a playoff team in the next couple seasons. If that is the case, then how much change can the Flyers make all at once without it overwhelming the entire system? Briere has to be cognizant of drafting well, too. That hasn't been a strength of the Flyers' in the past and they've paid the price by not being able to build as fast from the inside out.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
It's rare a team will go from bottom-dwellers to playoff contenders in one season. Philadelphia should improve from what it showed this season if Briere can check even a couple keys from his offseason to-do list. While that might not lead to Philadelphia competing within the Metro, it should provide enough hope to tide the team over for another year.
Apr. 12: Pittsburgh Penguins
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $20,208,158
2023 draft picks: 1st, 3rd (NJ), 5th, 6th, 7th (FLA), 7th (TOR)
What went wrong?
Pittsburgh was the NHL's oldest team this season, and it showed. It was hardly unexpected that the Penguins ran out of gas trying to keep pace in an increasingly youth-obsessed, high-flying league. GM Ron Hextall might have addressed an aging issue before the trade deadline but didn't, sticking with Pittsburgh's famous core of over-30s including Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang to still try carrying the day.
That idleness culminated with Pittsburgh falling 5-2 to the league-worst Blackhawks in a must-win game on Tuesday that effectively ended Pittsburgh's postseason hopes and halted the longest active playoff streak in major North American sports leagues at 16 seasons. Sometimes it's hard to pinpoint where a club's campaign went wrong. In Pittsburgh's case, the writing was on the wall -- but ultimately ignored for too long.
Keys to the offseason
Hextall stood (mostly) pat at the deadline. That's not an option in free agency, although it might lead to some difficult decisions.
The Penguins need to start retooling the roster. What does that mean for pending UFAs Jason Zucker (who made $5 million this season) and Brian Dumoulin ($4.1 million)? Pittsburgh was middle of the pack in scoring this season and often went through offensive dry spells that bled into lengthy losing streaks. Defensively, the Penguins' top-four rotation was inconsistent (Dumoulin, in particular, seemed to struggle), and after Pittsburgh finished eighth overall in shots against, it's clear the back end would benefit from an infusion of new blood too. Basically, priority No. 1 is weeding out which veterans no longer fit in the long term and targeting who in the organization -- and outside of it -- can play a more significant (and successful) role.
Pittsburgh also will have to address its goaltending. Tristan Jarry is another pending UFA coming off a difficult season. Pittsburgh's starter was intermittently hampered by injuries then struggled to produce when available. Casey DeSmith is signed for another season and can be a suitable backup, but who will the Penguins go with as their No. 1? Will Jarry be brought back? Or can Hextall find another suitable starter on the open market or via trade? It will be a critical decision that, depending on the move, defines where Pittsburgh is headed over the next couple of seasons.
It felt like the Penguins lost their mojo this season. There was no swagger for a team that's been a perennial contender for nearly two decades. Maybe it was age-related. Maybe it was the fact Pittsburgh hasn't won a playoff series since 2018 and was feeling less inspired than years past. How else to explain such an uninspiring finish? Cultivating team chemistry isn't easy, and it's often underrated. Pittsburgh has to find another way to relight its flame.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
The Penguins have a long list of needs to be addressed. Are they rebuilding? Tinkering? What's the next direction Hextall takes? If Pittsburgh can add a solid No. 1 goalie and a few key players to the lineup, there's a chance we see the Penguins back in playoff contention next season. Based on how Pittsburgh capped off this season though, and what's required ahead in reconstructing the roster, the Penguins are likely to be outside looking in once more.
Apr. 12: San Jose Sharks
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $15,300,832
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (NJ), 2nd, 3rd (CAR), 4th, 4th (SEA), 5th, 5th (CBJ), 6th, 7th, 7th (PIT), 7th (VAN)
What went wrong?
Perhaps this says it all about the Sharks. They have seven players who scored nearly 70 percent of their goals and two of them don't even play for the team anymore. In fact, Timo Meier still leads the Sharks in goals and he's been gone for nearly a month. This is all to reinforce how a lack of depth scoring proved to once again be a major challenge for the Sharks.
Then there's the matter of consistently being scored upon. While some of their problems were highlighted in their overall defensive metrics, maybe the most telling piece of information about the Sharks' struggles was their goaltending. They had the lowest team save percentage and the second worst high-danger save percentage in the NHL, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Keys to the offseason
Every lottery team has a campaign pitch for why they should get the No. 1 pick. The Sharks also have a slogan, and it's the fact they have not had a top three pick since they drafted Brad Stuart back in 1998. It's another reason why winning the draft lottery -- or at least getting a top-three pick -- is so crucial.
It's possible the Sharks could also use this offseason to potentially gain more draft capital for the future. Erik Karlsson's resurgence into a Norris Trophy candidate led to trade rumors. But those rumors came with the caveat Karlsson is owed $11.5 million per season over the next four seasons.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Could next season see some of the Sharks' prospects take a larger role with the club? Thomas Bordeleau and Henry Thrun played late in the year while William Eklund is expected to be available for training camp after having offseason shoulder surgery. And what happens if the player the Sharks draft in the first round is one who makes their roster out of camp? It's possible that it could give the franchise a glimpse of what's to come.
Apr. 12: St. Louis Blues
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $4,969,583
2023 draft picks: 1st, 1st (NYR), 1st (TOR), 3rd, 3rd (OTT), 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
What went wrong?
Being consistently inconsistent proved to be the biggest hurdle facing the Blues when it came to why they missed the playoffs for the first time since winning the Stanley Cup in 2018-19. It was a season in which they at one point alternated an eight-game losing streak with a seven-game winning streak, only to never reach the point in which they had more wins than combined regulation and overtime losses.
That inconsistency also came at a time in which the Blues needed to start thinking about their future. Vladimir Tarasenko was a pending UFA who appeared to have a fractured relationship with the organization while captain Ryan O'Reilly was also slated to hit the open market at the end of the season. It led to the Blues trading away two franchise cornerstones along with Ivan Barbashev to gain draft capital for the future.
Yet a potential silver lining could be the decision to sign Kasperi Kapanen on waivers while trading for Jakub Vrana. Those moves saw the Blues add two top-nine forwards who became two of their more offensively consistent forwards toward the end of the regular season.
Keys to the offseason
Having three first-round picks shows there is an emphasis on the Blues' future that is being led by players such as Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, both of whom start twin eight-year deals carrying a $8.125 million AAV next season. But there is also a discussion to be had about what happens with the Blues' current roster and what potential challenges Blues GM Doug Armstrong could face when it comes to making changes ahead of next season.
An item that could make moving certain players difficult -- should Armstrong go that route -- is the fact a number of them are about to start or are on long-term contracts. Excluding Kyrou and Thomas, the Blues have seven players who have more than two years on their contract that are set to earn more than $4 million annually. It's one of the reasons why the Blues will have limited cap space to play with compared to other teams.
Four of those players -- Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, Nick Leddy and Colton Parayko -- are defensemen, while another is goaltender Jordan Binnington. While coaches often state that defense is a five-player construct, the Blues could be forced to take a look at their defensive and goaltending dynamics. They were in the top five or top 10 of most shots allowed per 60, most goals allowed per 60, most scoring chances allowed per 60, most high-danger chances allowed per 60, most high-danger goals allowed per 60, lowest high-danger save percentage and lowest team save percentage per 60.
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
That's just it. Look back over the Blues history and you'll find that they typically have a plan that sees them get back into the postseason in relatively short order. The longest the Blues have gone without a playoff berth was three years, and that was back in the mid-2000s. Other than that, they're usually back within two years. And if they can solve their defensive issues? It's possible this could just be a temporary issue rather than a long-term problem.
Apr. 12: Vancouver Canucks
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $0
2023 draft picks: 1st, 3rd, 3rd (TOR), 4th, 4th (DET), 4th (NYR), 6th
What went wrong?
They went from being a potential playoff team to opening the season on a seven-game losing streak to never having more wins than combined regulation and overtime losses. They fired their second coach in 14 months to hire a third coach who was vocal about how the team still needed work.
They launched an investigation into the handling of Tanner Pearson's hand injury, traded captain Bo Horvat, have been near the top 10 in scoring but are also in the top five in goals allowed, and have the kind of record that makes them a lottery team but one that does not have the strongest odds to draft a player considered to be a generational talent in Connor Bedard, who is from North Vancouver.
Keys to the offseason
It appears there are quite a few questions facing the Canucks. One of them being how do they clear cap space? The Canucks ended the regular season with no available cap space with the idea there could be a chance for them to get some contracts off the books.
Even if they clear that cap space, what's the next step? Would it be better for the Canucks to address their current issues such as their defensive play knowing that could have a major impact? Or are they better off starting all over again and trying to stockpile the team with the sort of draft capital others are using for what they hope is a brighter future?
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
At this point, there is an argument that the Canucks may not be that far away in the event they can overhaul their defensive issues. Doing that while still harnessing the ability to score could change their fortunes. But that also comes with the understanding it may not be the most feasible solution given their cap issues while also determining what makes more sense for them beyond 2023-24.
Apr. 12: Washington Capitals
Projected 2023-24 cap space: $7,369,166
2023 draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th
What went wrong?
Washington was inconsistent. And they were hurt. That was hardly a recipe for success, and so the Capitals will miss playoffs for the first time since 2013-14.
Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson missed the first half of the season, and that clearly altered the Capitals' attack even with Alex Ovechkin's impressive efforts in pursuit of history. But it was losing John Carlson in December to a head injury that really gutted Washington. The Capitals just couldn't replace all that Carlson does, and while Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren attempted to hold the fort in net it wasn't enough to offset how much Washington was lacking in front of them.
The Capitals were constantly chasing games, perpetually on their heels. When the trade deadline hit and GM Brian MacLellan was selling off expiring veteran contracts, Washington basically announced it was ceding the season. Frankly, that was probably their smartest play.
Keys to the offseason:
Washington has already done some work to prepare for next season. But the big issue will be stabilizing the blue line. MacLellan traded for 23-year-old Rasmus Sandin in March, and has one first- and one second-round pick to play with in this upcoming draft. Can he use either as leverage to bring in some seasoned defensive talent that would put the Capitals in better position next time they face a deluge of injuries?
That leads into another question needing to be answered: what to make of Washington's remaining core? Ovechkin is an apparently ageless wonder, and it's obvious the Capitals want to support him in attempting to break Wayne Gretzky's record of 894 goals. Washington can't afford to have tunnel vision there, though. Evgeny Kuznetsov reportedly wants out which, if Washington does trade him, would leave a big hole up front. Backstrom is still savvy at 35, but has dealt with enough injuries that it becomes concerning how much he can keep providing. Same goes for T.J. Oshie. Deciding whether to go younger or stick with a more veteran core will be another key part of Washington's offseason assessment.
What was uncharacteristic about the Capitals this season was how often they played from behind, and were lethargic, and took so long to really get engaged in the game. Those qualities could have been the difference between staying in the playoff hunt and not. Part of what MacLellan will have to do is pinpoint why Washington wasn't itself in those respects. Do they need a new voice behind the bench after two seasons with Peter Laviolette? Or was there another issue that needs uprooting to improve the Capitals' consistency?
Realistic expectations for 2023-24
Washington went on a nearly decade-long run of postseason appearances. It's hard to imagine they won't be in that conversation again next season -- if MacLellan addresses some of those larger problems revealed down the stretch this season. It doesn't feel like a full-blown rebuild is what Washington is headed toward, anyway.