The 2019-20 NHL season started on Oct. 2, 2019, and didn't finish until Sept. 28, 2020, thanks to a pause of nearly five months due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead of getting ready for Thanksgiving Week games, we're in the midst of the offseason, with the 2020 draft and much of free agency in the rearview mirror.
There's some uncertainty ahead in terms of when the 2020-21 season will begin, and what it will look like when it does. After discussions with league and team executives and other sources around the NHL, here's what we know -- and what we don't -- as of Nov. 23.
Where is the NHL in its planning for the 2020-21 season?
Wyshynski: Talks continue daily between the NHL and the NHLPA, with commissioner Gary Bettman still targeting a Jan. 1, 2021, opening date for the 2020-21 season. But the talks hit a bump in the road as the NHLPA, during an all-hands call this week, was told about two alterations to the collective bargaining agreement the two sides forged before last season was completed.
So where do talks stand between the NHL and NHLPA?
Kaplan: There's motivation from both sides to roll out a plan for the 2020-21 season; but in the background, Bettman is dealing with a handful of disgruntled owners. Those owners have been complaining to Bettman about getting a bad deal in the new CBA (which was agreed on in July along with a "return to play" plan that finished the 2019-20 season) and a few have told Bettman they would prefer to not play the 2020-21 season at all if there are no fans, because they would be operating at a significant loss. Bettman, however, is "managing" those owners, according to a source familiar with the conversations, telling them that sitting out next season is simply not an option, as it is too damaging to the league's long-term health.
The commissioner is also trying to satisfy the owners' concerns, and one thing they've asked for is an infusion of cash flow to get the 2020-21 season off the ground. Last week, the league came to the players with two ideas to tweak their financial arrangement.
The first idea: deferred compensation that climbs to 20% this season and escrow to 25%, with no changes to subsequent seasons.
The second idea: deferred compensation that climbs to 26% in 2020-21, and escrow increases around or above 8.5% from Years 4 to 6.
(As part of the current CBA, the players opted to defer 10% of their 2020-21 salary to be paid in three installments from 2022 to 2025. Escrow was capped at 20% for the season, 10% in 2022-23 and then at 6% from the 2022-23 season through the 2025-26 season. As a refresher, escrow is the amount of money the NHL and NHLPA withhold from player salaries in the event that there is a shortfall on the owners' side in the 50-50 split at season's end.)
When the NHL's suggestions were presented on an NHLPA player-rep call on Wednesday, players were appalled.
"We just signed a new CBA four months ago," one player told ESPN. "And in that agreement, we accounted for this season being not a typical season. And now they're trying to walk it back and change the structure on us. That's bull. If we came to them and said we wanted to amend the terms, no way that would fly."
Said another player who was on the call: "By no means do we want to say, 'Screw you guys, we don't want to make this work.' It's more that we just agreed on something five months ago. It's what we agreed on for the next six years. Why do we have to change it again?"
The players are discussing how they want to play it out. If the NHL is treating them like their own personal bank -- after all, this is just to get additional cash flow into the owners' hands now -- the players could say, "OK, let's make a deal. If you're going to essentially borrow money from us, what is the interest rate going to be?"
Players are also considering what concessions they could ask for in return. One thing players have always wanted, but have never been able to achieve through CBA negotiations, is for the NHL to take care of players' health insurance for the rest of their lives. That could be an ask by the players, but it's a hefty one, and there would likely be pushback from the owners. Players could also ask for portions of benefits to switch sides, or for stipends toward health insurance after retirement.
According to conversations with several sources on the players' side, they're willing to work with the NHL because it's in everyone's best interest to have a season. However, they're not just going to just bend over backwards to the owners' new demands. The way the players see it: Business owners, by nature of the role, are the ones who assume the risk. They're also the ones who largely reap the rewards when the league is thriving. If the NHL can just weather this storm over the next few seasons, there's no reason to believe the league won't return to the trajectory it was on pre-pandemic. Plus, the 2021-22 season has two key kick-starters: the addition of Seattle as the 32nd franchise (and a $650 million expansion fee, to be split by the owners) and a new U.S. TV deal.
Why is the escrow topic such a big deal?
Wyshynski: It's important to understand how players feel about escrow, how they felt about escrow after the CBA was agreed upon and how they feel now that the NHL proposed raising the cap on it.
"Coming into the season, the first question that gets asked is: What's the escrow number for this season? Now we come into the season and there's a cap on escrow, anticipating the worst. And if it is the worst, we're OK with that now, and for the next six years, we know how things are going to be," an NHL veteran told ESPN. "From a psychological aspect, that was a win."
Several sources on the players' side have termed the proposed increased in escrow, either in the short term or in latter years of the agreement, as a "nonstarter." Perhaps then, by default, there's speculation that an additional deferment of salary would be the more likely appeasement of the owners. But the reality is that any changes to the CBA being requested now aren't popular with the majority of the NHLPA, especially when they consider how the shoe would fit on the other foot.
"We look at it as if we were on the other side. If there were full arenas right now and we had agreed to 20% escrow and we wanted to drop it down to 12%, I'm sure you can imagine what the reaction would be from those owners. They'd say, 'We have this in writing. There's no changing it,'" said a player on that NHLPA call. "So we're trying to see it from an owner's point of view."
Should we be worried about the L-word? Is there a chance this ends in a lockout?
Wyshynski: When there are money issues on the table, and when you start to hear about some owners who believe they can lose less money by not playing, there's understandable concern about the status of the season.
When it comes to mechanisms for that to happen, a lockout isn't one of them. The CBA outlaws lockouts and strikes during the term of the agreement. So don't fear the L-word.
Normally, there would have been some recourse there for teams should the NHL not play the season, by enacting a force majeure clause in the standard player contract. Paragraph 17 of the SPC states that "if because of any condition arising from a state of war or other cause beyond the control of the League or of the Club, it shall be deemed advisable by the League or the Club to suspend or cease or reduce operations," a player's compensation can be adjusted.
But there was a tweak to that provision in the new CBA. Paragraph 17 (c) -- "in the event of reduction of operations, the Paragraph 1 Salary shall be replaced by that mutually agreed upon between the Club and the Player, or, in the absence of mutual agreement, by that determined by neutral arbitration" -- has been waived for the 2020-21 season.
As for the other two sections -- which deal with proportional or canceled salaries in the event of suspension or cessation of operations -- player agents have suggested that there would be legal challenges if teams attempted to trigger them, since the CBA was forged during the same pandemic that would be used to now justify it.
But ultimately, what should most ease your concerns about the season not happening is that both sides appear to very much expect it to happen. The players are back on the ice in informal workouts. Bettman has been steadfast in wanting the season to start, and start as soon as possible.
What does the possible format for the season look like?
Wyshynski: The NHL is targeting a 60-game season that would end around the middle of July at the latest, avoiding a collision between the season's climax and the start of the Tokyo Olympics.
The word that's been used by league officials in speaking about the schedule is "nimble." They've watched the NFL, MLB and college football postpone games and shuffle their schedules accordingly due to positive COVID-19 tests. Expect the NHL to build some cushion into their schedule in preparation of the same.
The league will realign its four divisions for the 2020-21 season, out of necessity. Due to travel restrictions at the Canadian border -- the closure of which was extended to Dec. 21 last week -- the NHL has planned for an all-Canadian division at nearly every step of the groundwork for next season. The other divisions would be grouped together regionally.
Initially, that alignment was inspired by a "regional hub" plan, with one in Canada and three in the U.S. But the focus has shifted to a plan that would have teams playing inside of their home arenas -- most without fans but with an eye toward having some levels of fan capacity as the season continues, and especially in the postseason. That's based on hopes for lower COVID-19 infection rates and the expected rollouts of vaccines, treatments and rapid testing by spring 2021.
The schedule would have teams visiting each other for "homestands." While Major League Baseball has been the comparison, it's more like minor hockey leagues such as the ECHL, with quick, back-to-back games in the same arenas with the same opponent.
What will the divisions look like?
Wyshynski: ESPN was first to report on this expected alignment:
Canada: Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets
East: Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Washington Capitals
Central: Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings, Florida Panthers, Nashville Predators, Pittsburgh Penguins, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning
West: Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, San Jose Sharks, Vegas Golden Knights
The only thing we know about the playoff format is that it's likely to revert back to 16 teams. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman has said the 24-team postseason that played out in the Toronto and Edmonton bubbles was a one-time necessity due to the season being paused in March, and he has long been an opponent of an expanded Stanley Cup Playoffs.
As far as structure, it's a mystery: How does the NHL square having a traditional "East vs. West" format when its Canadian division stretches from Montreal to Vancouver? One theory making the rounds among the players and teams: seeding the playoffs 1 through 16 on a league-wide level for this season.
When will the season begin?
Kaplan: Bettman has repeatedly said he would like to start the season on or around Jan. 1, and that remains the goal. There's some added pressure on the NHL, considering the NBA -- with which the NHL shares a season -- is plowing ahead with a pre-Christmas start date. While some NHL owners have pushed back to Bettman saying they'd prefer not to play this season without fans (more on that later), others are saying, "If the NBA can figure it out, why can't we?"
There's still optimism on both the player and league sides that a deal can be done quickly, but they're going to need significant cooperation over the next week. Many in league circles have begun whispering that a mid- or late-January start date seems more realistic.
Before the season starts, teams require training camps, which would be roughly two weeks. The seven teams that did not participate in this summer's Stanley Cup playoffs have been promised about a week of additional training camp time. Plus, players on Canadian teams who are traveling in from different countries are required to quarantine for 14 days, according to federal restrictions, though the NHL and NHLPA continue a dialogue with local health officials and provincial governments to see if they can make any accommodations, and it could vary from market to market. For example, it's possible players on some Canadian teams might be able to serve their quarantine while also training.
Start to do the math on all of that and you realize decisions need to be made soon.
Will there be fans at NHL games?
Wyshynski: The first part of this answer is that it's entirely dependent on local regulations for buildings, which vary greatly across the U.S. and Canada. The NBA, which shares 11 arenas with the NHL, reportedly expects five to 10 of their teams to open the 2020-21 season with fans. NBA teams are also trying to find ways to seat fans in more restrictive states. The Golden State Warriors, for example, had an ambitious plan to have upward of 9,000 fans per game at Chase Center rejected by San Francisco's Department of Public Health, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. It included COVID-19 testing for all fans ahead of the games, at the cost of the team.
The second part of the answer is that if fans are permitted to attend NHL games under local guidelines, there's still a question as to how many fans will be enough to entice owners to open up their doors to spectators.
"At the end of the day, it's expensive to open buildings," said one NHL team executive. "Our building really works well at 80 to 90% capacity. It's like driving a car with one person in it versus driving it with all the seats filled: It costs the same to drive it, but it's more efficient with more people. We're too big a machine to operate just a 5,000-person event."
That sentiment was shared by Vegas owner Bill Foley in October. "Right now in Vegas, you can have 10% of your capacity," he told KSHP's Vegas Hockey Hotline. "I have no clue how it's going to work. We need to get up to 40 or 50% attendance, and then we can come up with some kind of program where every other game you can go to, that sort of thing. But with 1,800 people in the arena? That's not enough."
Again, the NHL's expectation is that it'll have fans at some point this season, with an emphasis on postseason attendance. But as owners try to lessen financial losses, it could be more financially advantageous for some of them to keep the doors closed until it's worth it.
Will players be required to take a COVID-19 vaccine?
Kaplan: Since the season is likely to begin before a COVID-19 vaccine is widely available to the public, the NHL must plan the season not accounting for it. However, experts with whom the league has consulted continually say an effective vaccine will be the key to restoring normalcy -- both in getting fans back to arenas and ensuring there aren't outbreaks on teams or disruption to the schedule.
Both the NHL and NHLPA expect to discuss vaccines with each other eventually, though neither side commented on their stance to ESPN. As deputy commissioner Bill Daly said this week: "I'm sure we will talk about it. Not sure I want to speculate as to what the results of those talks or the positions of the respective parties will be."
The NHL has never previously mandated a vaccine to players. Generally, the league will send recommendations to teams and players to get vaccines -- such as the flu shot -- and doctors will come to training camp or the team facility who can administer such vaccines. However, it is up to the player whether he wants to take it or not.
For example, when the NHL dealt with a mumps outbreak in 2014, it was "strongly recommended" to the players that they receive the MMR vaccine, but it wasn't required. Quietly, a few players and player agents told ESPN that they would fight back against mandatory vaccinations. Even if most agree that vaccination is the best path forward, enforcing mandatory vaccinations infringes on players individual rights and could be a slippery slope going forward.