It was the most abnormal postseason in NHL history, with 24 teams competing in two Canadian bubble arenas in front of empty seats. Yet its finale was inherently predictable: The Tampa Bay Lightning, among the wagering favorites before the tournament, raising the Stanley Cup in victory.
But never tell Julien BriseBois the odds. Despite the fact that the Lightning general manager had constructed what many felt was the deepest and most talented roster in the NHL, he said probability does not promise anything.
"When the season starts, the odds are that you're not winning the Stanley Cup," he said. "Even when the playoffs start and you're down to 16 teams, even if you're the top seed, the odds are that you're not winning the Stanley Cup."
Short of any concrete predictions, we're left with feelings, inklings and vibes about what teams are capable of doing in an upcoming season. Some of it is based on last season's accomplishments and upgrades made during the offseason. Some of it is based on clear multiyear trends that will continue or get bucked.
To streamline the process, we present the Stanley Cup contender tiers, a sort of progress report on 2020-21 championship contenders. These tiers don't account for injuries, trades, hirings, firings or Alexis Lafreniere winning the Hart Trophy as a rookie. They're a snapshot of the starting gate.
Here are the current groupings in the 2020-21 championship tiers:
The elite
Tampa Bay Lightning
Colorado Avalanche
Vegas Golden Knights
Two of the three teams in this tier were also here when we did this exercise just over a year ago: The Lightning, winners of the 2019-20 Stanley Cup, and the Golden Knights, who lost in the Western Conference finals last season.
Can the Lightning repeat as champions? Of course. They have Brayden Point, coming off a star-making playoff run, Nikita Kucherov and an on-the-mend Steven Stamkos up front; defensive pillars in Victor Hedman, the best at his position in the world, and Ryan McDonagh; and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has been a Vezina Trophy finalist in three straight seasons. They have role players who make a difference in Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat, Alex Killorn, Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. They have a tremendous coach in Jon Cooper and a heck of an architect in BriseBois.
They also have a salary-cap crunch, with three players -- center Anthony Cirelli, defensemen Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak -- needing restricted free-agent contracts. They tried to trade center Tyler Johnson's money off the cap to no avail. Sacrifices will have to be made, so stay tuned there.
But the Lightning remain the class of the NHL because they've finally learned how to play like it. That first-round loss to Columbus in 2019 had a transformative effect on the group, teaching them that they had to be able to win playoff games in a variety of ways and giving them a lesson in humility that a Stanley Cup championship just reinforces rather than supersedes.
What does Alex Pietrangelo do for the Golden Knights? He gives them the franchise-level defenseman they've coveted since entering the league. It allows Shea Theodore, who was on the cusp of that status, to anchor a second unit and make an already dominant 5-on-5 team even better. The Knights are stacked with talent up front; and their inability to trade Marc-Andre Fleury, while having a deleterious impact on their salary cap, gives them a gold-standard duo in Fleury and Robin Lehner in a season whose compressed schedule will demand tandem play.
The only points of concern are at center, where the trade of Paul Stastny leaves a thin group thinner; and whether this shift in personnel and philosophy we've seen in the past year messes with the chemistry of a historically tight locker room.
Joining the top tier are the Avalanche, who on paper are better than the Knights but not quite at the level of the Lightning. They were 16th in expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which was a symptom of the preposterously bad injury luck they had in the regular season, which carried over to the postseason. As a fully armed and operational Stanley Cup contender ... oh my. Nathan MacKinnon, perhaps the best hockey player in the world at the moment, anchors a forward group littered with offensive stars (Mikko Rantanen) and tremendous depth. The defense was transformed by the arrival of Rookie of the Year Cale Makar and has only gotten better with the acquisition of Devon Toews from the Islanders. Your mileage on the Avalanche may vary depending on how you feel about their goaltending, but they were fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes last season (2.17).
These three teams are a cut above, but there are a bunch of teams knocking at the door to the penthouse.
The waiting room
Dallas Stars
Philadelphia Flyers
Toronto Maple Leafs
Vancouver Canucks
The Stars were runners-up for the Stanley Cup this summer, after an unexpected run through the West. Unexpected does not mean unearned. Take out a late-season six-game stumble and this team was 20-9-3 with Rick Bowness behind the bench in the regular season, and even better in the playoffs. They return essentially the same team as last season -- most crucially Anton Khudobin in goal. If they can withstand the losses of Tyler Seguin and Ben Bishop to surgery recovery early in the campaign and make the postseason again, a return engagement for the Cup is not out of the question, provided "Bowness the head coach" can be as impactful as "Bowness the interim coach thrust into duty."
The Leafs were in the top tier at the start of last season, but another in a string of playoff missteps knocks them down a peg. They're an elite offensive team whose even strength defensive metrics were middling, both in shot attempts against (14th) and expected goals against per 60 (18th, 2.45). That could be remedied by a revamped bottom six, a reinvigorated defense with T.J. Brodie, Zach Bogosian and Mikko Lehtonen, and a bounce-back season from Frederik Andersen in his walk year. Or maybe it won't, and the Leafs continue to be all score and no stop.
Like the Leafs, the Canucks have loads of top-end offensive talent, anchored by Elias Pettersson up front and phenom defenseman Quinn Hughes. They cut their teeth with a couple of playoff-round victories last summer. Nate Schmidt is an upgrade on defense, but the jury's out on Braden Holtby replacing Jacob Markstrom, who did a lot of heavy lifting behind a 5-on-5 team that was dominated in possession and was at 2.55 expected goals against per 60 minutes, 25th in the league. That said, Vancouver is primed for another run in the West, buoyed by that postseason experience.
Are the Flyers in the waiting room? They're in that sweet spot with a collection of accomplished veterans in their prime bolstered by a group of outstanding young players. Losing Matt Niskanen to a surprising retirement hurts, and Erik Gustafsson isn't an upgrade. But there's a lot to like about this roster, in particular in goal with Carter Hart, and last summer's playoff experience is only going to help players like him, Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny. An intriguing group.
The Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins
Every season there's a team that defies classification, and this season that team is the Boston Bruins. Is their Stanley Cup window open? Is it closing? Is the supporting cast behind their holy trinity of forwards of a championship quality? How diminished are they by Torey Krug's departure? How much could Craig Smith's arrival make a difference? Is Zdeno Chara coming back? Should Zdeno Chara come back? Is there any residual messiness from Tuukka Rask ducking out of the postseason?
This is a team that seems like it can play for a championship just as easily as it could be in for a significant recalibration next offseason. In either case, it won't be boring.
The flawed contenders
Calgary Flames
Columbus Blue Jackets
Edmonton Oilers
St. Louis Blues
The Flames find themselves back in this tier even after addressing their most pressing need with the signing of Vancouver goalie Jacob Markstrom to a blockbuster free-agent contract. That's because their blue line took a hit with the departure of T.J. Brodie, plus the biggest concern: The inexplicable regression of star forwards Johnny Gaudreau (0.83 points per game in 2019-20, down from 1.21 in 2018-19) and Sean Monahan (0.69, down from 1.05), whose lack of effectiveness sparked trade speculation. If they bounce back, it'll be an intriguing season in Calgary.
Their Albertan rivals, the Oilers, have a cement foundation of two all-world players -- Connor McDavid and league MVP Leon Draisaitl -- atop which they've decided to construct a house of cards. Some of those cards are aces, like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Tyson Barrie, the latter of whom is a one-year "show me" free agent who should make the best power play the NHL has seen in 30 years even better. Some of those cards are deuces, like a goaltending battery that inexplicably still includes Mike Smith.
The Blue Jackets' primary flaw is offense, as they were 28th in the NHL last season in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes. Five of their six playoff losses were by one goal. That remains both a lineup issue and a stylistic decision by their coach. The impact of Max Domi and Mikko Koivu on this roster should be intriguing, and they have the cap space to add a little more. On the back end, it's the Seth Jones and Zach Werenski show in front of the rock star goalie duo of postseason hero Joonas Korpisalo and the indelible Elvis Merzlikins.
The Blues are slotted here not only for the continuing injury concerns over star winger Vladimir Tarasenko, but due to the unknowable impact of Pietrangelo leaving the nest for Vegas. The addition of Krug to their blue line could be a plus on offense, but it is a clear downgrade on defense. They've faced dramatic changes in team leadership before -- please recall that Pietrangelo captained the ship after David Backes sailed off to Boston -- but it's all very wait-and-see on the impact of this shift.
The rough offseasons
Arizona Coyotes
Carolina Hurricanes
New York Islanders
The Hurricanes were one of those teams that were tough to tier. There's so much promise here: the ascending stars of Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov; perhaps the deepest defense corps in the NHL; and a competitive collection of depth players, taking their cue from dogged coach Rod Brind'Amour. But they entered the offseason with James Reimer and Petr Mrazek in goal and ... they enter next season with Reimer (21st in goals saved above average) and Mrazek (27th) in goal. This was a robust goalie market. Unless Alex Nedeljkovic is primed to become something special, they're rolling the dice with a duo that runs way too hot and cold. Also of concern: The retirement of Justin Williams, veteran leader and "Storm Surge" conductor.
The Islanders were in such a salary-cap crunch that they had to ship out a solid defenseman, Devon Toews, for cost savings. As of this writing, they still have to scare up some more cap space to sign center Mathew Barzal, which will cost another body (or two). Rookie goalie Ilya Sorokin nearly offsets these losses, but the Islanders' inability to trim the fat on an overpriced veteran team was frustrating given the flat cap.
The Coyotes' biggest news this offseason: Their best skater leaving as a free agent (Taylor Hall), their inability to trade their captain (Oliver Ekman-Larsson) and having to disown a fourth-round draft pick for incidents of racial and physical abuse in the past. So, yeah, pretty rough.
The surprisingly strong offseasons
Buffalo Sabres
Florida Panthers
Winnipeg Jets
Despite skepticism from some pundits (raises hand), new Sabres GM Kevyn Adams had himself a strong first offseason. The one-year deal for Taylor Hall, finally giving center Jack Eichel an elite linemate, was an effective anteing up of Terry Pegula's money. Eric Staal and Cody Eakin fill out a thin center group. Questions abound, but the Hall move alone could elevate them to the playoff mix under a terrific coach in Ralph Krueger.
On paper, the departure of Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov from the Panthers is a downgrade, what with their offensive prowess. But GM Bill Zito has done an effective job of filling out his lineup with cost-effective depth (Vinnie Hinostroza, Carter Verhaeghe and Alex Wennberg), upgrading the blue line with Markus Nutivaara and Radko Gudas, and a personality transfusion with Patric Hornqvist.
After Paul Stastny left for the Golden Knights in 2018, the Jets were left searching for his replacement for two years. The finally found one in ... Paul Stastny. He's 34 and doesn't put up the numbers that he once did, but he drives play and is demonstrably an upgrade for a team that needed one at center.
The window watchers
Nashville Predators
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals
The Capitals are the closest of this trio to propping up their window for another shot at the Stanley Cup as Alex Ovechkin passes his 35th birthday. Justin Schultz and Brenden Dillon improve the blue line in front of Henrik Lundqvist, the free-agent goalie hungry for redemption. But it's coach Peter Laviolette's arrival that really inspires hope that whatever was broken the past two seasons can be mended.
Penguins GM Jim Rutherford made wholesale changes to his team this offseason. In: Cody Ceci, Mark Jankowski, Kasperi Kapanen, Michael Matheson. Out: Nick Bjugstad, Patric Hornqvist, Jack Johnson, Patrick Marleau, Matt Murray, Conor Sheary, Dominik Simon. Does this create the right mix around Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang to make a run at a fourth Stanley Cup in 11 seasons?
Outside of Pekka Rinne, the Predators' core players are in their prime. So why are they among the window watchers? Because last season was a disappointment, from the coaching change through the postseason elimination, and another underwhelming season could mean the configuration of that core changes -- in particular a player like Ryan Johansen.
The 'past their peaks'
Anaheim Ducks
Chicago Blackhawks
San Jose Sharks
Even with a return to form from goalie John Gibson, this feels like a transition year for the Ducks away from the era of Ryan Getzlaf, who is in the final season of his contract.
The Blackhawks are in a purgatory where Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are in their prime, their supporting cast is in no way championship-level, and they have the worst goaltending battery in the NHL on paper.
The Sharks hope that bad health and lousy defense were at the root of their massive decrease in the standings from 2018-19 to 2019-20. Ryan Donato is a welcome addition, as is Patrick Marleau, who is back for his third stint. But resting their fate on a rebounding Devan Dubnyk and rebound-prone Martin Jones in goal doesn't bode well. Joe Pavelski is gone. Joe Thornton is gone. It's probably time for the next iteration of this team.
The next wave
Montreal Canadiens
Los Angeles Kings
New York Rangers
The Canadiens have a slew of effective veterans, from stars like Carey Price and Shea Weber to solid citizens like Tomas Tatar and Brendan Gallagher. But it's Jesperi Kotkaniemi (20 years old), Nick Suzuki (21), Alexander Romanov (20), and eventually Cole Caufield (19) who are going to elevate this franchise. The question is whether they'll hit that sweet spot between veteran standouts and young stars ... like the other teams listed here.
The Rangers are at the crest of the next wave. Artemi Panarin (29), Chris Kreider (29), Mika Zibanejad (27) and Jacob Trouba (26) are the veteran core. Alexis Lafreniere (19), the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, is the game-changing young star who joins an impressive collection of them already on the roster, including forward Kaapo Kakko (19), defenseman Adam Fox (22) and goalie Igor Shesterkin (24). This is probably the last time you'll see the Rangers in the next wave, because they're ready to roll.
The Kings still have Anze Kopitar (33), Dustin Brown (36), Jeff Carter (35), Drew Doughty (30) and Jonathan Quick (34) on the roster as they wait for the next wave in Quinton Byfield (18), Arthur Kaliyev (19) and Alex Turcotte (19).
The wild cards
New Jersey Devils
Minnesota Wild
These two teams are admittedly in different places in their maturation as contenders. The Wild have a veteran team that's still trying to contend in the West, while the Devils are in the midst of their second rebuild in six years. But both teams enter the 2020-21 season with similar upgrades to their lineups: improvements in goal, as the Devils signed Corey Crawford, and the Wild brought in Cam Talbot and impactful young players.
The Devils are hoping Jack Hughes makes a leap forward after a tough rookie season, and that No. 7 overall pick Alexander Holtz could be a goal-scoring sensation. The Wild have Kevin Fiala as a burgeoning star, and they welcome 23-year-old Russian dynamo Kirill Kaprizov to the mix.
The basement
Detroit Red Wings
Ottawa Senators
The Red Wings made some smart moves this offseason to stabilize the team, including an upgrade in goal with Thomas Greiss, adding to a young group that could include No. 4 overall pick Lucas Raymond. The Senators added Matt Murray in goal and Evgenii Dadonov to a mix of young talent that includes No. 3 overall pick Tim Stuetzle.
Most importantly, both teams have a slew of picks in the first three rounds of the 2021 draft, because they're still building back to contender status. Another season near the basement of the league isn't just a prediction, it's a prescription.