Only a few weeks left and the Heisman race refuses to settle. Fernando Mendoza is the favorite, but at +160 he isn't close to locked in. Exactly a year ago, Travis Hunter sat at -400 before finishing the season with the trophy.
Voters have short memories and long leashes, and with three pivotal Saturdays left, rivalry games, conference title stakes and a handful of candidates still searching for a moment, the race remains (a bit) open.
Let's break down what each contender must do now to turn potential into the trophy.
Top Heisman Trophy candidates
Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana +160 
, last week +225
Mendoza is the only player to have multiple weeks listed as the Heisman favorite. In my Sunday reaction, I wrote that it's his to lose. Now for me, his odds were never enticing to buy but my prediction remains the same.
The argument is that Mendoza and Indiana would need to win the Big Ten title game for him to win the award. I would argue ... no he does not. But he can't afford to shrink in that spot either.
The voting structure matters. Heisman voting ballots are distributed on Dec. 1 with the deadline for submission set for Dec. 8. The Big Ten Championship is Dec. 6. Some may get their vote early, others may wait. I would believe (assumption) that voters have already formed their internal hierarchy before then and the title game simply acts as confirmation, not a reset. If Mendoza walks into that matchup 12-0 with the clearest moment of the year already in his pocket, he has the strongest resume before the ball is even kicked.
What actually wins Mendoza the award is narrative, and right now he owns it. Indiana has the undefeated record, Mendoza has the game-winning fourth-quarter drive, the pressure context and the statistical profile that is efficient enough where nobody can say, "he's just a story." He has 31 total touchdowns, a 71% completion rate and, if the Hoosiers do finish undefeated, it would be Mendoza who led his team to their first undefeated season since 1945. That's the formula.
Where Mendoza can't slip up is performance under the lights. If Indiana finishes clean entering the title game, the only way he loses grip is if another QB in the Heisman race has a seismic, signature moment of their own, or if Ohio State obliterates Indiana and Mendoza looks overwhelmed. Even then, I would not think that's an automatic loss. Caleb Williams lost the Pac-12 title game by 23 and he still won the award. Heisman voters remember the entire body of work.
So Mendoza needs to keep doing exactly what he's been doing all season; stay clean, avoid a multiple turnover disaster, protect the undefeated run, walk into the title game as the face of a true contender, and play with command against Ohio State, even if they lose. Remember, in this weekly column, I did predict Indiana to win the Big Ten and even the national title. Using that as a basis, Mendoza feels like the best mark to win the Heisman at this point.
Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State, +185 , last week +185
Sayin's path is tight, requiring a specific sequence that he has not shown yet. The gist is that Ohio State winning alone is not enough. If the Buckeyes beat UCLA, Rutgers, and even Michigan in the same 24-14, 38-14, 34-10 style they've done all year, that preserves their playoff seed but it doesn't win the Heisman for Sayin.
Voters need to feel something and right now he has zero emotional imprint on the season. Sure, he's efficient, clean and technically superior, but where's the drama? Efficiency without drama is invisible in a Heisman race.
Sayin needs a defining snapshot, something that cuts through the noise. Right now, his whole resume reads like 24 passing touchdowns (none on the ground), 300 yards a game, zero chaos, no sweat. That's solid pocket-passing but, for the Heisman, it's vanilla. It's beautiful in a coach's office, or for NFL draft grades, but it's not something voters remember when scrolling through ballots.
The Michigan game is the only shot left. If Sayin walks into Ann Arbor and delivers the moment, a dagger thrown, a two-minute drill, a fourth-quarter answer, breaking Michigan's four-game run against them, that becomes the pivot. Even with Michigan being 'weaker', the rivalry carries weight. "Breaking the streak" is a narrative arc but it has to be him, not Jeremiah Smith.
And that brings us to the Smith problem. When I talk about Ohio State, I talk about Smith, not Sayin. The best highlight from your offense consistently belongs to your wide receiver, diluting the quarterback narrative. Sayin is the facilitator, and Smith is the spectacle.
So what does Sayin need in order to win? He needs Michigan to push Ohio State. Then he needs to respond with a defining drive or moment in that game, needs to be the reason the streak ends, needs a signature throw that belongs on the broadcast loop. Gus Johnson lost his mind with Mendoza's pass. Can Sayin produce a similar reaction?
If Ohio State cruises and Sayin stays clear but unspectacular, he finishes second. If he delivers a standout moment at Michigan, and then potentially beats Mendoza head-to-head in the Big Ten title game, he could be the favorite.
Right now the story has been written without him. Sayin's only path is to write the final chapter himself.
The rest of the field
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama +600 , last week +450
Alabama has won because the defense has leveled up, the run game stabilized a bit and the staff finally stopped asking Simpson to be something he's not. Simpson feels like a finalist, not a winner. And that's perfectly okay.
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M +850 , last week +850
Reed remains the only true upside play left that can blow up the race, with the Aggies still having Texas on deck. His pathway is narrow but it exists: beat Texas to finish the season undefeated for the first time since 1939 (also the year they won a national championship), look stellar doing it, hope Indiana slips, hope Ohio State plays too clean to create drama.
If that happens, Reed becomes the shiny object voters latch onto in December. He is the only non-Mendoza, non-Sayin candidate with a clear "path."
Everyone else is a lottery ticket. They are long shots because voters haven't watched them, haven't thought about them, and there's not much time left for them to change that.
Betting consideration: Mendoza is your guy
His final drive against Penn State is the moment. That's the clip every voter has already seen 10 times. Gus Johnson's call adds emotional gravity. It was ELECTRIC. When the voice of college football breaks, people feel it. That's the kind of moment that is remembered when someone fills out a ballot. That is exactly what Reed and Sayin lack. In other words, Mendoza is in the driver's seat.