Fernando Mendoza had his Heisman moment against a now 3-6 team. It's still a Heisman moment.
The Indiana Hoosiers QB is now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, and unless something dramatic happens in the final two weeks, the race is tilting firmly in his direction. Saturday's win over the Penn State Nittany Lions did not just keep Indiana undefeated. It delivered the one thing Heisman voters latch onto: a moment. The kind they replay when ballots are in hand and the highlight loop runs on repeat.
Indiana wasn't dominant and often looked flat, trailing late in the fourth quarter, but the Hoosiers were also without Elijah Sarratt, their second-leading receiver and most reliable red zone threat.
They faced a desperate Penn State team playing with nothing to lose. Yet with 1:51 remaining, down 24 to 20, Mendoza jogged onto the field needing an 80-yard drive with a season's worth of pressure on his shoulders and delivered.
The final box score shows a pedestrian passing line with only 19 completions for 218 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Nothing gaudy but the Heisman is rarely won by raw numbers. With the résumé, you have games won by context, poise, command and timing. Mendoza delivered all of that in real time.
Let's be honest about the moment ... it began ugly. The first play was a sack for a loss of 7 yards. The clock rolled, the crowd exploded, and Indiana's players felt the weight of an undefeated run slipping through their fingers. Those are the exact spots where quarterbacks panic. Instead, Mendoza reset and answered with a 22-yard strike, a 12-yarder, then a 29-yarder, and then a 17-yarder. Mendoza marched the Hoosiers 73 yards in four completions to three different targets.
That's command.
That's maturity.
That's leadership.
Three plays later came the throw. Shotgun snap. Pressure in his face. A short-middle dart to Omar Cooper Jr., who twisted and somehow dragged his left foot in bounds. The stadium gasped, Gus Johnson lost his mind in the best way possible, and Indiana's season breathed again. It was everything a Heisman moment should be: dramatic, improbable, emotional and unforgettable.
Matt Barrie, Joey Galloway and EJ Manuel react to Indiana's late touchdown drive to thwart Penn State's upset bid.
Now, the arguments swirling online reveal more about expectations than the actual award. Let's break them down.
'QB Ohio State Julian Sayin is more consistent.'
True. Sayin has been steady, efficient, clean, doesn't trail and rarely looks rattled. He is a machine that runs without variance, which is great for playoff seeding, not for the Heisman. Robert Griffin III, Lamar Jackson, Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston, Vince Young and Tim Tebow all won because of flashes, not because they sailed through Weeks 7-10 with a workmanlike 27-of-33 at Purdue.
If Sayin never has a dramatic moment, voters won't feel anything. That's the entire point.
'Indiana got outplayed.'
Fair. Penn State pushed them around and Indiana struggled as 14.5-point favorites. That actually strengthens Mendoza's case. He didn't post big numbers in a blowout, didn't spend three quarters padding stats, but was getting punched and he responded. The Heisman is as much about narrative as it is about efficiency.
'He threw a pick.'
So did Caleb Williams in his 2022 run. Bryce Young threw multiple in 2021. Lamar Jackson's stat lines were all over the place. The Heisman has room for imperfection because imperfection creates plot. Voters don't look for flawlessness. Who is the player who elevates the moment after adversity? The mistake two drives earlier set up the exact arc voters love: struggle, redemption, triumph.
'You can't have a Heisman moment against a 3-6 team.'
You can if you're undefeated, on the road and your season is on the brink. This argument is more emotional than logical. Moments are defined by stakes, and Indiana's playoff positioning was hanging by a thread. That's the weight.
'Cooper bailed him out.'
Football is a team sport. Every Heisman résumé has iconic catches. Bryce Young had Jameson Williams and John Metchie. Johnny Manziel had Mike Evans. The quarterback creates the opportunity. Mendoza delivered a catchable ball under pressure with little time left. Cooper finished the job. That's how big moments happen.
The betting angle
Mendoza now owns the narrative advantage, the undefeated record, the signature moment, and two weeks left to secure a résumé voters lean toward if Indiana closes unblemished. The pressure is his, but the pole position is undeniable.
He is the rightful (+160) favorite because the market reflects voter psychology. Narrative drives odds.
Even if Indiana loses the Big Ten title game, Mendoza still holds value unless he collapses and Sayin finally delivers a defining moment of his own. One game won't erase weeks of narrative, and voters won't abandon the quarterback who already delivered the season's clearest Heisman drive.