During the past few months, the phrase "in these uncertain times" has entered the zeitgeist or at the very least entered the lexicon of advertising copy. The phrase also is applicable to what the National Hockey League's newest free-agent class will experience when the horn sounds at noon ET on Oct. 9.
"I mean, no one knows what next season is going to look like or even if there's going to be a season," said one NHL general manager.
But assuming the 2020-21 season begins in December or January -- which is the current projection -- there is uncertainty far beyond the schedule. The COVID-19 pandemic has terraformed the financial landscape of the league. The new collective bargaining agreement installed a flat salary cap of $81.5 million for next season, and possibly more, as a reaction to the massive revenue losses for the NHL and its teams. Furthering the financial constraints are the internal budgets established by teams that have gone months without significant revenue streams and are uncertain when they're flow again.
What does that means for the 2020 free-agent frenzy?
One player agent told ESPN: "The big guys will go quick, like they always do. Then there will be a bit of a cooling-off period, probably a little longer than normal because we've got so much time."
As one NHL general manager explained, "After the biggest names, who probably know where the want to end up, I think you're going to have some players that put themselves out there just to get a deal done, for security."
Another wrinkle, according to a few player agents: There might be more unrestricted free agents than anticipated. "There are going to be teams that aren't qualifying some [restricted free agents]," said one agent.
It'll be a frenzy like no other, and that includes on the calendar: a tradition in July is being held in October. Typically, a lot of business gets down between the start of the frenzy and the July 4 holiday in the United States. We're not sure if Columbus Day presents the same urgency.
What hasn't changed: There are a collection of unrestricted free agents available who can alter the fortunes of teams, as well as some they would be better off avoiding. Here's a look at the key players hitting the market, organized into different tiers. We left out some veterans who could be close to retirement (Mikko Koivu), ones we feel are likely to only sign with one team (Joe Thornton, Zdeno Chara, Justin Williams) and some, such as Patrick Marleau, who might fit into both categories.
Advanced stats via Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey. Note: Ages listed are as of Sept. 28. Players are listed alphabetically within each tier.
Jump ahead:
Best bets | Smart gambles
Boom-or-busts | Rickety investments
The spackle
Tier 1: The best bets
Taylor Hall, LW, Arizona Coyotes
Age: 28 | 2019-20 cap hit: $6 million
The star winger has been waiting years to be the offensive belle of the free-agent ball ... and then COVID-19 changed the financial landscape of the NHL for the foreseeable future. The Coyotes expressed interest in retaining him when then-general manager John Chayka traded for him. Hall has since huddled up with team ownership to hear its pitch. The problem for Arizona: It is pretty much capped out. "It'd have to be very creative to keep him," new GM Bill Armstrong said.
If Hall hits the market, the biggest question becomes one of years: Will he seek that long-term security he has talked about in the past or will he opt for a shorter-term, though big-ticket, deal in an effort to push for a Stanley Cup with a contender? There's a belief in some circles that Hall will be headed somewhere in Alberta as a free agent: either back home to Calgary or to finish the job in Edmonton. But that could just be the hockey echo chamber trying to will it into existence. The contract projection from Evolving Hockey: $8.543 million annually for a seven-year term.
Robin Lehner, G, Vegas Golden Knights
Age: 29 | 2019-20 cap hit: $5 million
Everything points to him extending his time with the Golden Knights, but until the ink is dry, there are no guarantees. The burly Swede's numbers weren't quite as good as they were in 2018-19 -- when he won the Jennings Trophy -- which is to be expected when leaving the Islanders' defensive structure. But his .920 save percentage and 2.89 goals-against average between Chicago and Vegas was strong, while his .917 and 1.99 with four shutouts in the playoffs was a declarative statement to the team. If he leaves, one assumes Lehner will find more than a few teams willing to go beyond the one-year deal that he was greeted with last offseason. Wherever he ends up, he'll deliver.
Anton Khudobin, G, Dallas Stars
Age: 34 | 2019-20 cap hit: $2.5 million
In the playoffs, Khudobin famously bellowed. "We're not going home!" in the Stars dressing room. Does the same mantra apply to his free agency? As he was a playoff hero, of course the Stars would like him back. But as a playoff hero, his value has likely skyrocketed as the "1-B" for someone else next season. This isn't just some narrative hype, either: Khudobin was second in the NHL in goals saved above average per 60 minutes, behind Darcy Kuemper. Obviously, one concern is how much hockey he has played in the past few months as compared to his normal work rate. Otherwise, he has the numbers and the proof of concept, and his teammates absolutely adore the guy.
Torey Krug, D, Boston Bruins
Age: 29 | 2019-20 cap hit: $5.25 million
A puck-moving defenseman who can quarterback the power play is among the most coveted assets in the NHL, right up there with top-line center. Krug has more than shown his value to that end, with 58 points on the Bruins' man advantage unit. TSN reported that the last Bruins offer to Krug was six years at $6.5 million annually. Evolving Hockey has him at upward of $7.4 million in their contract projection and on a five-year term. Krug hasn't been keen on taking a hometown discount, so where does he land?
Alex Pietrangelo, D, St. Louis Blues
Age: 30 | 2019-20 cap hit: $6.5 million
There's still a strong belief in NHL circles that the Blues and their captain will eventually come to an agreement despite some of the uncharacteristically public negotiating that's gone on. But if he does go to market, then he shoots to the top of the most-wanted list among unrestricted free agents. Pietrangelo made his case with a career-best offensive season (0.74 points per game), while driving play and skating 24:11 per game, to finish fourth in the Norris Trophy voting. This was after his 19 points in 26 games in the Blues' Stanley Cup run in the previous postseason. He added 3.2 wins above average this season, eighth most in the NHL. He is age 30, and there are a lot of miles on that frame, but he is a last-piece-of-the-puzzle guy for a title contender. For the next few seasons, that's worth the price.
Tyler Toffoli, LW/RW, Vancouver Canucks
Age: 28 | 2019-20 cap hit: $4.6 million
Toffoli has expressed a desire to remain in Vancouver, which might have something to do with playing with Elias Pettersson. And the Canucks have reportedly shown interest in retaining him, which might have something to do with him playing with Elias Pettersson. If it doesn't work out, Toffoli is a proven veteran with championship experience who can easily slip into someone's top-six forwards and help drive play.
Tier 2: The smart gambles
Tyson Barrie, D, Toronto Maple Leafs
Age: 29 | 2019-20 cap hit: $5.5 million
Sometimes, bad fits happen to good players. Barrie put together two seasons of elite-level offensive play as a defenseman, particularly on the power play, with the Avalanche. For whatever reason, it didn't come together in Toronto for him. Evolving Hockey sees him as a $7 million AAV player, which might be a little high coming off a 39-point season under a flat cap. But on the right team, in the right market, he'll pick up where he left off with the Avalanche -- fantastic, puck-moving offense with the expected defensive liability that comes with it.
Corey Crawford, G, Chicago Blackhawks
Age: 35 | 2019-20 cap hit: $6 million
In 40 regular-season games, Crawford had a .917 save percentage and a stellar .641 quality starts percentage. His playoff numbers (.907 save percentage, 3.31 goals-against average) didn't tell the story of how good he was as a last line of defense for a Chicago team that miraculously won the qualification round before losing in five games to Vegas. His underlying numbers have him seventh among goalies this season with 14.2 goals saved above average. He will turn 36 (!) in December, which makes his "term, not money" wish to remain in Chicago a little awkward. But as a short-term play in free agency, he is a solid catch -- and those Stanley Cup rings don't hurt his case, either.
Dylan DeMelo, D, Winnipeg Jets
Age: 27 | 2019-20 cap hit: $900,000
Those in the know were stunned at the trade deadline to see DeMelo move to the Jets from the Senators for just a third-round pick, given his low cap number and defensive prowess. You're not signing him for his offense -- his last goal was scored in March 2019 -- but you are signing him for stout, dependable defense with an average ice time of over 20 minutes per game. Again, part of the charm here is the cap number, and using $900,000 as a starting point tells you it should remain reasonable.
Brenden Dillon, D, Washington Capitals
Age: 29 | 2019-20 cap hit: $3.27 million
The Capitals are working to re-sign their trade deadline acquisition, and for good reason. Dillon is one of the better defensive defensemen at 5-on-5 available, finishing in the top 15 for defensive goals above average this season (5.3, right ahead of Mark Giordano and Miro Heiskanen). His penalty killing isn't as good as some comparables, but it speaks volumes that Dillon has seen time with Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns and John Carlson in the past two seasons; he can take care of business while the offensive guy does his thing.
Tyler Ennis, LW/C/RW, Edmonton Oilers
Age: 30 | 2019-20 cap hit: $800,000
Could we get a third season of the Ennis-sance? He turned his career around in Toronto two seasons ago, followed D.J. Smith to Ottawa and then played well enough to be a trade deadline pickup by the Oilers, with whom he had four points in nine games. One of those classic analytics darlings who makes a team's bottom six better, Ennis can bring versatility to the lineup and can draw penalties, and he'll give that all to you for a very reasonable price.
Mikael Granlund, C, Nashville Predators
Age: 28 | 2019-20 cap hit: $5.75 million
As good as Kevin Fiala has been in Minnesota is how disappointing Granlund has been with the Predators, with 19 goals and 17 assists in his 79 games there. A fresh start is necessary, and the team that signs Granlund will get a solid defender who is only two years removed from an 0.87 points-per-game season. (And 14.3 goals scored above average in 2017-18.) He is still in his prime; because of that, don't look for much of a discount. Evolving Hockey has him at a $6.525 million AAV for whoever lands him.
Thomas Greiss, G, New York Islanders
Age: 34 | 2019-20 cap hit: $3,333,333
Under normal conditions, the market for a "1-B" goalie who will turn 35 in January probably isn't that large. But considering next season is going to have a compressed schedule, no matter how many games the league ends up playing, someone like Greiss becomes quite valuable. He is coming off a down year from the heights of 2018-19, when he won a share of the Jennings Trophy with Robin Lehner. That's enough to slot in in this tier. But he also is one of the most experienced goalies in the pool when it comes to sharing the crease and remaining effective.
Bobby Ryan, RW, Ottawa Senators
Age: 33 | 2019-20 cap hit: $7.25 million
Ryan has his life on track, after seeking help for an addiction to alcohol. He has languished in Ottawa, but he has perked up when there was a carrot in front of him: Witness his 15 points in 19 games in 2016-17. He has some years on him, but Ryan strikes us as this offseason's buyout baby, like Kevin Shattenkirk and Corey Perry were last summer. Those two worked out OK for the Lightning and Stars. A motivated, cost-effective Bobby Ryan could do the same with a contender -- with the acknowledgement that Ryan doesn't exactly play at, let's say, a 2020-21 NHL pace.
Kevin Shattenkirk, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Age: 31 | 2019-20 cap hit: $1.75 million
With the way he has played for the Lightning in the regular season and the playoffs, Shattenkirk is going to make more than the post-buyout bargain through which Tampa Bay got him. His biggest crime with the Rangers was being maddeningly average after a big free-agency deal, yet he was anything but with the Lightning, at 11.8 goals scored above average. Sure, playing with Mikhail Sergachev helped, but Shattenkirk put up good numbers without him too. His 0.49 points per game in Tampa seems about what to expect from Shattenkirk, and he has been a positive-possession player in every season of his career but one. An asset for the right team, especially a contender.
Craig Smith, RW, Nashville Predators
Age: 31 | 2019-20 cap hit: $4.25 million
For five years, Smith had one of those classic David Poile contracts where you're like "that guy, with that two-way production, for that cap hit?" He has scored 64 goals in the last three seasons, mustering up 18 in 2019-20 despite seeing his ice time cut to 13:25 per game, and his usage takes a turn away from offense. He had 12.4 goals scored above average this season and 10.0 last season. A classic veteran addition to a contender's lineup, even if he's getting up there in age.
Tier 3: The boom-or-busts
TJ Brodie, D, Calgary Flames
Age: 30 | 2019-20 cap hit: $4,650,400
The inescapable fact is that Brodie has played more than 1,700 minutes with Mark Giordano in the past three seasons, and that that his numbers without the Flames' top defenseman at his side are decidedly average -- in some cases, below average, like his 48.69% expected goals percentage from 2017-18 to 2019-20. His own offensive output took a tumble this season (0.30 points per game, down from 0.43 the season prior). He'll get you around 21 minutes per game, and he obviously knows his way around a partnership with an elite defenseman. In that complementary role on the right side of the defense -- say, with a young puck-mover -- he's got value. Just know that Mark Giordano isn't coming with him.
Evgenii Dadonov, RW, Florida Panthers
Age: 31 | 2019-20 cap hit: $4 million
The best news for those seeking to own Evgenii Dadonov stock is that the price likely dropped after a middling season, at least by his standards: 25 goals, 22 assists for a 0.68 points-per-game average, down from the previous two seasons. But let's not just write off last season as a total anomaly: He's 31 and his numbers declined despite a significant uptick in offensive zone starts (60.1%) and spending the majority of his time with Aleksander Barkov. Still worth a long look given his three-season production and some of his underlying numbers, but we'll also issue a buyer beware warning.
Mike Hoffman, LW, Florida Panthers
Age: 30 | 2019-20 cap hit: $5,187,500
Scoring goals in the NHL is hard. Hoffman has done so consistently since 2014, including 36 last season and 29 in 69 games this season with the Panthers. If your team needs scoring on the wing, Hoffman is going to provide it; especially on the power play, where he has netted 28 goals in the past two seasons. Also hard in the NHL: defending well. In his past three seasons, Hoffman has a combined minus-9.2 defensive goals prevented above average. Hoffman is a liability at 5-on-5, and that's been the case for years. The eternal riddle for general managers: Is he worth it for the goals, knowing that he'll also give up his share at even strength?
Braden Holtby, G, Washington Capitals
Age: 31 | 2019-20 cap hit: $6.1 million
This is going to be a fascinating free agent. Logic dictates that a goalie who backstopped his team to a Stanley Cup just two years ago should be in high demand for contenders, especially when he's still only 31. But with a flooded goalie market and a flat cap, what do these offers look like for Holtby? (Perhaps that's why he wants to keep the conversation going with Washington.) This was Holtby's worst season by far as a starter (.897 save percentage, 3.11 goals-against average) but it follows a season where he was a respectable plus-15.5 goals saved above average. He hasn't been the same goalie since Barry Trotz and goalie guru Mitch Korn left Washington, but we think there's a second act here to benefit some contender.
Jacob Markstrom, G, Vancouver Canucks
Age: 30 | 2019-20 cap hit: $3,666,667
Let's start by saying that Markstrom is a good goalie. When he finally graduated to starter in 2017-18 with Vancouver, he posted solid numbers and a good workrate of 60 games in back-to-back seasons. This season, he started 43 games, went 23-16-4 and posted a .918 save percentage behind a team still learning how to defend. He was great in the playoffs at times (.919 save percentage). But it's fair to ask how much of his play this season was symptom of knowing that free agency loomed in the offseason. As mentioned, it's a crowded goalie market. Some of Markstrom's underlying numbers don't blow you away like the belle of the free-agent ball's should, in theory. We love him as an addition to a tandem. We love him less as the "solution" in goal for a team searching for one.
Justin Schultz, D, Pittsburgh Penguins
Age: 30 | 2019-20 cap hit: $5.5 million
How much of Schultz's struggle in 2019-20 was due to the Jack Johnson Effect? He played more than 168 minutes with Johnson and was a minus-5 in even-strength goals; without him, he was a plus-2. The Penguins have already said he's too rich for their cap, even though his salary projection for his next deal is just under $4 million annually. We'll put him in "boom or bust" because he's played some of his best hockey in an increased role when the Penguins have suffered injuries -- but Schultz himself has had trouble staying in the lineup for the past three seasons.
Carl Soderberg, C, Arizona Coyotes
Age: 34 | 2019-20 cap hit: $4.75 million
Soderberg turns 35 in October, and will likely move on after one fairly productive campaign in the desert (35 points in 70 games). He's a durable player coming off a slight downtick of a season, especially on offense. But on a short-term deal, he could be an effective bottom-six center -- emphasis on "short-term deal."
Chris Tanev, D, Vancouver Canucks
Age: 30 | 2019-20 cap hit: $4.45 million
For years, Tanev has been respected as one of the league's better "defensive defensemen." So it's kind of wild that in the year his stock was never higher, as the partner/mentor to rookie sensation Quinn Hughes, Tanev had one of his weaker defensive seasons. In fact, Hughes was better across the board with others (57.22% expected goals percentage) than with Tanev (50.22%). There's an obvious market for him, including with his current team. Overall, he's an effective, win-at-all-costs defenseman. But while we dare not speak the name of Karl Alzner when it comes to big contracts doled out to defensive defensemen pushing 30 ... well, it's been spoken, we guess.
Tier 4: The rickety investments
Alex Galchenyuk, C, Minnesota Wild
Age: 26 | 2019-20 cap hit: $4.9 million
It's never a good sign when a team immediately gives away your number before free agency, as the Wild did when they bestowed Galchenyuk's No. 27 upon newly acquired Nick Bjugstad. His next destination will be his fourth team in three seasons, after stops in Arizona, Pittsburgh and Minnesota. Last season was supposed to be a resurgence; instead, he was a spare part in Pittsburgh before scoring seven points in 14 games with Minnesota, for a career-low 0.41 points per game. NHL teams have been trying to make Galchenyuk happen since his 30-goal season in 2015-16. Someone else undoubtedly will again.
Erik Haula, LW/C, Florida Panthers
Age: 29 | 2019-20 cap hit: $2.750 million
Haula had a remarkable season in 2017-18, with 29 goals and 26 assists. He hasn't come close to that production in the two seasons since, mostly due to injuries. When he's healthy, he can be an offensive asset but a defensive liability -- he's at minus-3.2 defensive goals above average over the last two seasons. We wouldn't be shocked if a team like the Flyers -- whose GM Chuck Fletcher drafted him in Minnesota -- took a look at him as a No. 3 center.
Travis Hamonic, D, Calgary Flames
Age: 30 | 2019-20 cap hit: $3,857,143
Hamonic opted out of the postseason bubble and in the process fell off the grid. There's a lot of respect for his "defensive defenseman" game, but three of the past four seasons have been beset by injuries. His strong 2018-19, when he was at 55.49% expected goals, looks more and more like an anomaly given his underlying numbers in the past five seasons. A third-pairing defenseman destined to earn second-pairing money, even though he's an asset on the penalty kill.
Ilya Kovalchuk, LW, Washington Capitals
Age: 37 | 2019-20 cap hit: $700,000
Kovalchuk might have the weirdest page on CapFriendly. Consider that he had three different cap hits listed for last season: $6,666,666 from the Devils, on a contract terminated in July 2013; $6.25 million from the Kings, on a contract terminated in December 2019; and then the discount rate you see here, when he finished the season split between the Canadiens and Capitals. His 22 games with Montreal were actually outstanding (13 points, plus-6). His one assist in eight playoff games with Washington, not so much. Is there a market for a full season of a 37-year-old Ilya Kovalchuk, other than as an asset to flip at the trade deadline?
Corey Perry, RW, Dallas Stars
Age: 35 | 2019-20 cap hit: $1.5 million
There have always been two sides to Corey Perry. There's the guy with 377 career goals, and there's the side with 1,180 career penalty minutes. To that we can add that at age 35, he's the guy with five goals in 57 regular-season games in 2019-20 who matched that in 26 playoff games this postseason. His value as a veteran on a contender has been fortified by the Dallas playoff run, and someone will want to add that at the right price, perhaps at or below his current cap hit. But his offensive output remains in steep decline, with a shooting percentage far below league average.
Sami Vatanen, D, Carolina Hurricanes
Age: 29 | 2019-20 cap hit: $4.875 million
Vatanen is a player who should produce more offensively for the roles in which he's been placed (50.1% offensive zone starts for the Devils in 2019-20) and should be better defensively for the amount of admiration he receives (he's been in the negative on possession for six straight seasons). For the money he'll earn, which is projected at over $4.5 million AAV, the results could be seen as middling if he stays the course. He's also missed significant time the past two seasons to injury; of course, the Devils were so terrible, there probably wasn't much to make him rush back. After being acquired at the trade deadline by the Canes, he didn't make it back for any regular-season games, but he appeared in seven contests this postseason.
Tier 5: The spackle
While we list these players in the final tier, it is from this group that future unlikely playoff heroes could be found. To wit, you'll recognize some of these names from the 2020 playoffs.
Craig Anderson, G, Ottawa Senators
Mark Borowiecki, D, Ottawa Senators
Derick Brassard, C, New York Islanders
Justin Braun, D, Philadelphia Flyers
Zach Bogosian, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Cody Ceci, D, Toronto Maple Leafs
Kyle Clifford, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs
Aaron Dell, G, San Jose Sharks
Cody Eakin, C, Winnipeg Jets
Brian Elliott, G, Philadelphia Flyers
Jesper Fast, RW, New York Rangers
Michael Frolik, LW, Buffalo Sabres
Derek Grant, C, Philadelphia Flyers
Andy Greene, D, New York Islanders
Radko Gudas, D, Washington Capitals
Erik Gustafsson, D, Calgary Flames
Jimmy Howard, G, Detroit Red Wings
Trevor Lewis, LW, Los Angeles Kings
Mattias Janmark, C, Dallas Stars
Melker Karlsson, LW, San Jose Sharks
Dmitry Kulikov, D, Winnipeg Jets
Patrick Maroon, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Matt Martin, RW, New York Islanders
Jon Merrill, D, Vegas Golden Knights
Vladislav Namestnikov, F, Colorado Avalanche
Stefan Noesen, RW, Vegas Golden Knights
Brad Richardson, C, Arizona Coyotes
Luke Schenn, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Andrej Sekera, D, Dallas Stars
Riley Sheahan, C, Edmonton Oilers
Conor Sheary, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins
Wayne Simmonds, RW, Buffalo Sabres
Cam Talbot, G, Calgary Flames
Jimmy Vesey, LW, Buffalo Sabres