Goaltender is the most volatile and unpredictable position to analyze in hockey scouting, and it's nearly impossible to comfortably project. That's especially true when it comes to indicating a team's franchise goalie of the future.
With the help of an NHL goalie analyst, here's how the next wave of building-block franchise goaltenders is shaping up, accounting for all 31 teams.
1. Carter Hart, Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers think they have the solution to their long-standing goalie problems. Hart has performed remarkably well at the NHL level, despite a tepid debut with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms in the AHL. Having easily navigated the jump to the top level, Hart now has to sustain his performance over a full season in 2019-20 to show that he can solve Philadelphia's goaltending woes once and for all.
Every goalie needs a good mental base, and Hart seems to have it. His focus is sharp, his confidence is difficult to shake, and he exudes calmness. On top of that, his anticipation skills are at a high level, showing great hockey sense. In junior, Hart always made the saves look easy. He is spindly and flexible but doesn't have to rely on power or acrobatics to make the save. He's just smart and always in position. And when he finds himself in trouble, he battles through it.
Hart has all of the tools, but much will be expected of him at a very early stage in his career. We won't know if he has the goods to meet those expectations until he actually goes through it, but it's safe to say the Flyers won't be setting any more records for goalies used in a single season.
2. Ilya Samsonov, Washington Capitals
One of the quickest goalies between the pipes, Samsonov is more prone to making those pretty saves because he has the explosiveness to do it. After a rocky start in the AHL, he is finding his North American pro legs. The smaller ice size can change the timing of plays and the rhythm of games, and everything happens faster in North America due to the compressed nature of the action. Even Andrei Vasilevskiy went through a tough transition when the Tampa Bay Lightning goalie came overseas.
Samsonov's raw numbers this season aren't spectacular, but that's partially due to an abysmal start. His second half has been much more reflective of the player he has been for the past several years in Russia. Since Jan. 1, Samsonov has appeared in 15 games and has registered a .927 save percentage. Another year in the AHL should help him solidify his game, but it could be a while before Braden Holtby is ready to give up his net in the nation's capital.
3. Igor Shestyorkin, New York Rangers
Shestyorkin has put up cartoonish numbers in Russia, falling just .002 shy of the all-time best save percentage in a single season, with a .953 mark in 2018-19. He is expected to be making the jump to North America after this season -- and not a moment too soon for the Rangers. No, they don't need him for a little while, with Henrik Lundqvist still holding down the fort, but there is that steeper learning curve for import goalies. Allowing Shestyorkin a few years to train in the AHL helps, but you still want him while he's at his physical peak.
Lundqvist has just two years remaining on his deal after this this season. If Shestyorkin continues on his current developmental track and isn't eaten up by the North American adjustment, he has the skill to be a No. 1 whenever King Henrik is ready to hang up the pads.
4. Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks
It has been a slow burn for Demko in taking over the Canucks' net, but it seems inevitable that he'll get more games next season and more opportunities to show he can do the job for the long haul. The 23-year-old is a tremendous tactician who squares up well on pucks and uses his big frame to take away a lot of net.
There might be at least some concern with a lack of reps as Demko battles some injury issues, and he is going to get pressured in the next few years by the also-highly-regarded Michael DiPietro, but Demko has the best chance to be this team's long-term No. 1, assuming he can maintain his health.
5. Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues
Just on the outskirts of still being considered a bona fide prospect, Binnington has been the surprise of the season. He essentially saved the Blues' season, but it's difficult to know if, or how long, he can keep this up. It's an interesting situation for the Blues but well-timed for Binnington because Ville Husso, who looked like the goalie of the future, has not had a great season in the AHL. Binnington was even loaned to the Providence Bruins last season to make room for Husso to stay under close watch of the Blues' brass. At 25 years old, this is the time for Binnington to seize the opportunity.
It has been an Andrew Hammond-like run from Binnington. But unlike Hammond, he has a track record and pedigree. He was a third-round pick in 2011 and has been in the Blues' system for years, performing well in the AHL last season. Binnington certainly doesn't lack confidence and is handling his rise to prominence in stride. As far as goalies go, he's just under the cut line for the height that portends to better success at the NHL level.
What he's doing right now cannot be ignored, but it does have to be viewed with cautious optimism.
6. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo's long-term goalie situation is looking like it could be a positive one, with Linus Ullmark -- who was seen as the organization's potential No. 1 for a while -- already seeing NHL action as the team's primary backup goalie. But based on what I've seen the past two years and from chatting with scouts, Luukkonen is a legit talent in net.
UPL helped Finland win gold at the last World Junior Championship with a sterling performance, especially in the medal round. He was unshakable. Luukkonen made the early jump to North America this season and has been a star for Sudbury in the OHL, posting a .921 save percentage in 50-plus appearances. It's been a great year for his development, and he can try to make the next step in the AHL next season. At 6-foot-5 and 212 pounds, he has the size teams covet and can do it all between the pipes. In the biggest games, he shows up.
7. Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars
It isn't easy being a first-round goalie. The scrutiny can be pretty severe, and the margin for error is pretty thin. In the two years since he was drafted, Oettinger has been a little inconsistent, but to be fair, Boston University has been a little inconsistent in front of him. Despite that, the skills and tools that made Oettinger a first-round pick have not gone away. He has great size, some side-to-side speed, explosiveness and a good technical base.
Scouts love his hockey sense, too. Oettinger is strong in anticipating plays and making good pre-save reads. One scout believes he is the kind of player who will only improve as he rises up the ranks. Oettinger went through a bit of a sophomore slump last season, but he's back to a .927 save percentage this season. There should be significant AHL time for him to adjust to pro shots and pace, but there is reason for optimism among Stars fans. He has the goods to make it and be an impact goalie.
8. Kaapo Kahkonen, Minnesota Wild
At just 22 years old, Kahkonen is making the most of his first season in North America. He had a tremendous final campaign in Finland and just seems to keep building. I've gone out to see him play in the AHL a few times, and I'm always struck by how quiet he keeps things in net. There isn't a ton of scrambling, and he challenges shooters to make sure he's taking a lot of net away from them. Kahkonen looks very strong going post to post as well.
The Wild aren't going to be pushing Devan Dubnyk out the door, but Kahkonen gives them a legitimate threat for a future No. 1. Another year in the AHL should help a lot.
9. Cayden Primeau, Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens are pretty set in net for the foreseeable future, but it looks like they have a dandy in the pipeline with Primeau.
"He might not have always looked as refined as some of the other goalies, but he's been exceptional when it matters," a goaltending scout said. That's a pretty good description of Primeau, who has skyrocketed since being drafted in the seventh round in 2017. He has back-to-back seasons with a save percentage over .930, two Beanpot titles and a World Junior silver medal, and he has been a driving force in the resurgence of Northeastern's hockey program. He exudes confidence and has solid hockey sense to make up for any concerns about refinement.
There's no rush for Montreal to sign him because of Carey Price, but if he keeps progressing as he has the past two seasons, Primeau has a chance to be a really strong goaltender down the line.
10. Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders
Sorokin is an exceptional goalie, but the reason he isn't higher on this list is the clock. He's 23 years old right now but has another season left on his current contract with CSKA Moscow. That means the first season he'd be available to play in North America is 2020-21. Then there's the fact that the Islanders have gotten such exceptional goaltending from a revitalized Robin Lehner, whose next contract could have a big impact on Sorokin's situation.
Sorokin is the No. 1 goalie in the KHL this season, appearing in more than 40 games for CSKA. He had a league-best 11 shutouts and a sparkling .940 save percentage. There's little doubt that CSKA would want to keep him as long as possible and that the buyout process could be complicated if he wanted to come sooner rather than later. This is one of the more complicated situations among goalie prospects, but there's little question that Sorokin has the size, competitiveness and high-level experience to play in the NHL one day.
The outlier
Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators: While he isn't technically a prospect, thus setting him aside here, Saros remains the goalie of the future in Nashville. He is only 23 years old, and getting the opportunity to understudy Pekka Rinne has been good for his development. The Preds don't really have anyone else in their system who projects as comfortably as Saros does, which is why I wanted to make special mention of him. He is also the extremely rare under-6-foot goalie who appears to have a bright NHL future.
Honorable mentions
Elvis Merzlikins, Columbus Blue Jackets
Joseph Woll, Toronto Maple Leafs
Olivier Rodrigue, Edmonton Oilers
Connor Ingram, Tampa Bay Lightning
Best of the rest
Not quite franchise goalies but currently the top goaltending prospects in the remaining teams' systems.
Tyler Parsons, Calgary Flames
Josef Korenar, San Jose Sharks
Kyle Keyser, Boston Bruins
Alexis Gravel, Chicago Blackhawks
Lukas Dostal, Anaheim Ducks
Filip Larsson, Detroit Red Wings