We have reached the point in the NHL season in which all 31 teams have played at least half of their games. While it may seem like we have a good sense of how things will play out, one factor that can reshape the playoff races is the fortune of players changing in the final 40-something games.
Which top scorers could fade back to the pack? Which players could heat up and help their teams compete during the home stretch? Which numbers point to future trends? Let's have a look at a bounce-back or regression candidate for every club.
Metropolitan Division
Washington Capitals
Bounce-back candidate: Evgeny Kuznetsov
Key stat: 6.9 shooting percentage
While the Capitals' star center is humming along at around a point-per-game pace, he has even more to give. In the previous three seasons, Kuznetsov has scored on 12.0 percent of shots, and averaged more than 20 goals per season. In 2018-19, he has just seven tallies. With a career-high rate in shots per game, the bounces are bound to go his way soon.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Bounce-back candidate: Derick Brassard
Key stat: 13 points in 34 games
With just 21 points in 48 games since joining the Penguins in a trade last season, it hasn't been a smooth ride for the former Blue Jacket, Ranger and Senator, but things simply can't stay this bad for much longer. He's been playing alongside dynamic scorer Phil Kessel, which could help Brassard's currently career-low on-ice shooting percentage.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Bounce-back candidate: Alexander Wennberg
Key stat: One goal in 42 games
Maybe Wennberg's breakout 2016-17 season in which he scored 59 points wasn't the real deal, but the Blue Jackets expected more than 9 goals in his past 108 games. While the 2013 first-round pick isn't getting many shots on goal -- just 41 in 42 games -- he is bound to find the net more often in the second half. That is unless his ice time continues to dwindle.
New York Islanders
Regression candidate: Robin Lehner
Key stat: .935 even-strength save percentage
It makes sense that Lehner has finally found gotten rolling with the Barry Trotz-coached Islanders, but this is hardly his first blazing hot streak. He put together a .936 overall save percentage in the first 17 games of his career in Ottawa, and then faded back to the pack with a .910 mark in the following 54 starts. Lehner then had a long stretch of solid play during his first two campaigns in Buffalo, which was followed by a downturn in 2017-18. Even if he stays hot, it's unlikely Lehner will continue Vezina Trophy-caliber goaltending.
Carolina Hurricanes
Bounce-back candidate: Dougie Hamilton
Key stat: Nine assists in 42 games
After four straight seasons of 40 points or more and a fourth place finish in the Norris Trophy voting last year, Hamilton's offensive output has gone in the basement. A career-low shooting percentage and on-ice shooting percentage point to a lack of luck, but there is also a question of whether Canes players can maximize their potential in Carolina. Jeff Skinner and Elias Lindholm have seen considerable success elsewhere this season.
New York Rangers
Bounce-back candidate: Kevin Shattenkirk
Key stat: Six goals in 80 games as a Ranger
Things have not gone according to plan in The Big Apple for Shattenkirk. His ice time is sitting at a career low (18:33), as is his shooting percentage (2.9). Normally a dangerous power-play producer, who topped 20 power-play points four times in his career, Shattenkirk has two points on the man advantage this season. Coming back from a shoulder injury, the Rangers' 29-year-old defenseman will have a chance to get back to his scoring ways.
New Jersey Devils
Bounce-back candidate: Will Butcher
Key stat: 7.5 percent relative Corsi
Butcher emerged as an exciting rookie last season, scoring 44 points during the regular season and four more in the playoffs for the Devils. The sophomore slump has been serious for him, with just 2 goals and 12 assists through 41 games. The Devils have struggled as a team, but they have also been much better with him on the ice. The bounces will come eventually.
Philadelphia Flyers
Bounce-back candidate: James van Riemsdyk
Key stat: 2.0 shots per game, down from 3.1 last season
The Philadelphia follow-up to a spectacular final season with Toronto has been far less impressive than van Riemsdyk's 36-goal 2017-18 campaign. He's managed just six tallies in 27 games and seen his shot rate plummet. While the Flyers do not have the skill around JVR as the Leafs did, the two-time 30-goal scorer can't have forgotten how to score completely. We should see an uptick going down the stretch.
Atlantic Division
Tampa Bay Lightning
Regression candidate: Brayden Point
Key stat: 12.9 percent on-ice shooting percentage
Tampa's 2014 third-round pick has turned out to be an incredible steal, producing 163 points in 193 NHL games before age 23. Point has proven to be a cornerstone player and top-notch offensive producer, but his outrageous pace to score around 100 points will likely not be reached. He's shooting 8.0 percentage points higher than his career mark, and his assist total is boosted by the shooting percentages of his linemates. We can still expect Point to be a key two-way asset for the Lightning, but expect the scoring pace to cool off.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Bounce-back candidate: William Nylander
Key stat: One goal in 14 games
After a contract dispute kept him off the ice for the majority of the first half of the season, Nylander hasn't yet found his groove. Still, the Leafs are dominating possession with him on ice, to the tune of a 55.6 Corsi for percentage, and he's putting nearly two shots per game on net. It won't be long before Nylander sees his 3.8 shooting percentage rise.
Boston Bruins
Bounce-back candidate: Danton Heinen
Key stat: Five even-strength assists (21 last season)
Last season, Heinen played a key role in a youth movement that helped offer support to the Bruins' veteran stars like Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand. That hasn't been the case in 2018-19, as Heinen has just 11 points after a 47-point 2017-18 season. The B's are only shooting 5.5 percent with him on ice, a rate that is sure to increase as the season goes along.
Buffalo Sabres
Regression candidate: Jeff Skinner
Key stat: 3.14 shots per game, lower than his last four seasons in Carolina
Playing alongside Jack Eichel, the former Hurricane is on pace to top his career high of 37 goals. An elite talented linemate can certainly make a big difference in a scoring winger's production, but sustaining a shooting percentage over 20.0 is extremely difficult (Skinner is currently at 21.5). In his career-best season, Skinner scored on 13.7 percent of his shots.
Montreal Canadiens
Bounce-back candidate: Carey Price
Key stat: .911 even-strength save percentage
Here's a concerning stat on Carey Price: In his past 80 starts, the star goalie has a .904 save percentage. Before his slide began, he managed a .923 save percentage. It's plausible that Price has simply hit a wall, but the Habs are still within reason to hold out hope that he can return to the goalie he was between 2013 and 2017; after all, his previous career even-strength save percentage was .927.
Florida Panthers
Bounce-back candidate: Vincent Trocheck
Key stat: 6.0 shooting percentage in 18 games
A fractured ankle robbed Trocheck of the first half of his 2018-19 season, and while he did return to the ice for some skating on Jan. 4, it's unclear when he will return to game action. However, when he does return, the skilled forward could make an immediate impact on the Panthers' offensive attack. Trocheck showed his true offensive potential last season by scoring 31 goals and 75 total points, with a 10.8 shooting percentage (on par for his career).
Detroit Red Wings
Bounce-back candidate: Anthony Mantha
Key stat: Six assists in 30 games
Detroit had been waiting for Mantha to take the step forward that he took last season, scoring 48 points in 80 games. But he's dropped back thus far this season, with 16 points. His goal-scoring pace isn't down, and his Corsi for percentage and shots-per-game rate are up, so we should expect his teammates to start finishing his setups soon.
Ottawa Senators
Regression candidate: Matt Duchene
Key stat: 20.0 shooting percentage
If Ottawa is planning on trading Duchene before the deadline, now is the time. His career shooting percentage is 6.2 percentage points lower than his current mark this season, which has driven Duchene to 42 points in 37 games. Sell high, Sens.
Central Division
Nashville Predators
Bounce-back candidate: Filip Forsberg
Key stat: Eight assists in 28 games
There isn't much to complain about when a team is in first place, but Forsberg's assist total is pretty odd. He's had no problem producing goals (16 in 28 games) and has cleared 30 assists in three of the past four seasons, so we should expect those two things to even out during the second half. One good sign: Forsberg is putting a career-high 3.4 shots per game on net.
Winnipeg Jets
Bounce-back candidate: Connor Hellebuyck
Key stat: Even-strength save percentage down .015 from last season
We're not to the point yet in Hellebuyck's career where we can fully assume that last season was closer to the norm than an anomaly, but we would have expected a strong carryover from his breakout 2017-18, which landed the 25-year-old second in Vezina Trophy voting. Instead, he's sunk back into 2016-17 form with just a .909 save percentage and .914 even-strength save percentage. With a strong team in front of him, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a second-half surge.
Dallas Stars
Bounce-back candidate: Valeri Nichushkin
Key stat: Zero goals in 34 games
After showing promise as a rookie, Nichushkin's career has gone south. In his return following two seasons in the KHL, he's playing under 13 minutes per game and hasn't managed to find the back of the net. He's never been a super impressive goal scorer -- he scored only 23 in his first two full NHL seasons -- but there has to be more in the tank than this. It seems there's equal odds we will see him emerge over the second half or end up in the press box.
Colorado Avalanche
Regression candidate: Gabriel Landeskog
Key stat: A career-best 1.16 points per game
The Avs' top line is as good as it gets in the NHL, with Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, but odds are against the Swedish winger continuing to score goals at twice the rate of his career high and running away from his career high in points (65, set in 2013-14). Secondary scoring will be needed in Colorado if Landeskog hits a cold streak.
Minnesota Wild
Bounce-back candidate: Eric Staal
Key stat: 3.15 shots per game, highest of his Wild tenure
Staal has seen a resurgence under Bruce Boudreau, scoring 70 combined goals in his first two seasons in Minnesota. This season, the veteran center's scoring marks are down, but nothing else would indicate he's fallen off a cliff. Staal's Corsi for percentage is 52.2, his highest since joining Minnesota, and he's getting shots on net (3.14 per game). A hot streak may be on the way that could help the Wild emerge in the playoff race.
Chicago Blackhawks
Regression candidate: Erik Gustafsson
Key stat: 10.9 shooting percentage
One of the few bright spots in Chicago has been Gustafsson's 27 points in 43 games from the blue line. However, that might not last. He's shot 3.9 percent over the past two seasons, which suggests the scoring pace could fade soon.
St. Louis Blues
Regression candidate: David Perron
Key stat: 22.4 shooting percentage
Few things have gone right in St. Louis, but Perron's return to the Midwest has gone well. At 0.75 points per game, he's producing well above his career high. That could be coming to an end soon, however, as puck luck has been on his side. At just 1.7 shots per game, Perron would have to shoot exceptionally well to continue his pace of 30 points in 40 games.
Pacific Division
Calgary Flames
Bounce-back candidate: James Neal
Key stat: Zero power-play goals
Everybody and their brother is scoring like crazy in Calgary except Neal, who has just 4 goals and 5 assists in 44 games. Relegated to the third line, it doesn't appear he's going to go crazy offensively any time soon, but the veteran winger has never scored fewer than 20 goals in a single season. Expect some of his 2.1 shots per game to find the back of the net eventually.
Vegas Golden Knights
Bounce-back candidate: Jonathan Marchessault
Key stat: 14 goals in 46 games
Marchessault took no time at all to make the Panthers look foolish for letting him go, leading Vegas to the Stanley Cup Final with 75 points in 77 regular-season games and 21 points in 20 playoff contests. Things have been more challenging this season, though his 8.6 shooting percentage is 3.8 percentage points lower than the past two seasons, during which he scored 57 goals. Vegas could just be starting to heat up.
San Jose Sharks
Bounce-back candidate: Martin Jones
Key stat: .899 save percentage
It's strange to see any goalie with a sub-.900 save percentage and a winning record, but Jones has 19 victories in 32 games despite an abysmal start. Over the past three seasons in San Jose, he's been consistently average with save percentages of .918, .912 and .915. Even if a more open style of hockey is hurting his numbers, you would still expect a better showing in the second half.
Anaheim Ducks
Bounce-back candidate: Andrew Cogliano
Key stat: 3.3 shooting percentage
Nobody would mistake Cogliano for Jaromir Jagr, but it's stunning that the Ducks' long-time role player, who has produced 28 goals in the previous two seasons combined, has just two in 44 games. While a career low in ice time is likely contributing to his frustrations, puck luck has not been his friend at all. If the Ducks hang around in the playoff race, it may be in part to an uptick in production from Cogliano.
Vancouver Canucks
Regression candidate: Elias Pettersson
Key stat: 27.8 shooting percentage
Even if it's unlikely the Canucks end up playing into May this year, hockey fans in Vancouver have something to be excited about in the likely Calder Trophy winner. In scoring 22 goals on just 79 shots, he's shown incredible skill. However, it'd be difficult to shoot 27.8 percent with Pettersson for a full season on a video game. His pace will slow down, but the excitement over him shouldn't.
Edmonton Oilers
Bounce-back candidate: Milan Lucic
Key stat: Two goals on 42 shots
Even as far as Lucic has fallen and as much as the Oilers are struggling, you still wouldn't expect him to continue to score on only 4.8 percent of shots. Of course, with Lucic's ice time sinking and his contract looking worse by the day, it's hard to see a huge jump in the second half.
Arizona Coyotes
Bounce-back candidate: Alex Galchenyuk
Key stat: Seven points in his past six games
The desert hasn't been friendly to scorers this season, with Arizona ranking 28th in even-strength shooting percentage, but there has been a bit of a spark lately in Galchenyuk's game. He's scored only 10 even-strength points in 32 games as a Coyote, leaving us to wonder whether the No. 3 overall pick from 2012 will ever reach full potential. As a former 30-goal scorer, however, it wouldn't be surprising to see a little second-half jump from the former Canadien.
Los Angeles Kings
Bounce-back candidate: Jeff Carter
Key stat: 7.5 shooting percentage
Still one of the league's most gifted offensive players, Carter has not been able to recreate his past 60-plus point pace that he's averaged as a King, with just 19 points in 43 games. Maybe his second-half surge comes with a different team?