When regulation ends, all bets are pretty much off. It could all be over in just one wide shot in OT resulting in a 2-on-0 going back the other way or one nifty shootout move after the five-minute frame. It doesn't take much, but there's a full point in the standings up for grabs. It matters.
In an interest of ranking all 31 teams in accordance with how well they're setup for overtime and shootout success, we developed an index system. Six factors were used for the formula. We devised a 1-31 ranking in each category, and produced a weighted average:
30 percent: Projected points of each team's top center, winger and defenseman
20 percent: Each team's second-highest projected point-getter at center, wing and defense
20 percent: Each team's No. 1 goalie's projected save percentage
15 percent: Average career shootout percentage for each team's top three shootout artists
10 percent: Career shootout save percentage for the No. 1 goalie
5 percent: Last year's win percentage in overtime and the shootout
Click here for more on the methodology, and for a table listing the full results for every team.
Here is the resulting ranking for each team in expected success following the conclusion of the third period. The lower the index rating, the better:
1. Tampa Bay Lightning
Rating: 3.30
The Bolts ranked first in the league in three categories and finished no worse than seventh elsewhere. A first-team overtime unit of Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy is the cream of the crop, and Brayden Point is one of the best in the business in the shootout. Tampa Bay is a no-brainer in the top spot.
2. Washington Capitals
Rating: 7.95
Finishing in the top 10 in all but one category makes the defending Stanley Cup champs pretty dangerous once the final regulation horn blows. Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov pack a lot of punch with John Carlson, and T.J. Oshie is famously a wizard in all alone. Braden Holtby is one of the league's best goalies, but his mediocre performance in the shootout slightly hurts the Caps.
3. Dallas Stars
Rating: 8.30
Ben Bishop staying healthy would be critical for the Stars. He ranks third in the NHL in projected save percentage. The top OT unit is star-packed with Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and John Klingberg, but there's a drop to the second unit. Expect the Stars to be an improved team this season, and they ought to grab a handful of extra points if Seguin and Alexander Radulov get a chance to dangle in the shootout.
4. Winnipeg Jets
Rating: 8.95
No shocker here, considering how talented the offense is in Winnipeg. The Jets struggled a bit in the extra frame last season, but considering the potential of a top OT unit of Blake Wheeler, a healthy Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien and Connor Hellebuyck, the sky is the limit for this team. Patrik Laine isn't even on the ice to start overtime, for crying out loud.
5. Pittsburgh Penguins
Rating: 9.30
The Pens trailed only the Lightning in OT record last season. That's what the No. 2 and 5 OT threesomes will do for you. Pittsburgh might not be the same team it was, but Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel are still some of the best offensive players in the NHL. Extra space at 3-on-3 gives these playmakers too much room to create for the Penguins to not cash in on the second point.
6. Boston Bruins
Rating: 11.25
Despite fielding the worst trio of shootout nominees and finishing in the bottom-third in overtime success last season, Boston is still lethal after regulation. Patrice Bergeron can skate with either of his talented wingers in Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak, and Torey Krug can move the puck extremely well. I think Tuukka Rask's projected save percentage (0.919) is a tad generous, but I'll give the contending B's the benefit of the doubt.
7. San Jose Sharks
Rating: 11.30
It will be interesting to see what coach Peter DeBoer does with the overtime unit. He has the two best offensive defensemen in the NHL now and two elite centers. Could he use Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns together with either Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture? It's possible. Regardless, San Jose will be likely get a lot of extra points, especially considering Martin Jones' skill in stopping breakaways.
8. Nashville Predators
Rating: 12.15
The strength for the Preds is in the goaltending. It's not that Nashville doesn't have elite scorers -- it does, along with some of the best offensive defensemen in the league. Rather, it's more so that the Predators are built on depth, which doesn't lend itself heavily to these ratings. However, Pekka Rinne will hold down the fort regardless of who is on the ice. And whatever you do, don't let P.K. Subban unleash the clapper from the top of the circles.
T-9. Los Angeles Kings
Rating: 12.35
Certainly aided by the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk, the Kings rank surprisingly well. Anze Kopitar plays both ends of the ice, and Drew Doughty is a big-time OT asset. Jonathan Quick can find himself a little out of position at times, which hurts in such a wide-open format, but he also has the athleticism to make the big save when you need it.
T-9. Toronto Maple Leafs
Rating: 12.35
Only the Sharks are more balanced in the drop to the second OT trio, as the Leafs have just an 11-point drop. In fact, the second-tier Leafs trio would have still been the No. 14 top-tier trio. That tends to happen when you have Auston Matthews as the second-line center. I'd guess Toronto uses John Tavares and Mitch Marner together to start before sending out the young American. Frederik Andersen is underwhelming in the shootout, but he's a talented goalie who can help keep pucks out of the net in overtime and give the Leafs' offense an opportunity to end it.
11. St. Louis Blues
Rating: 12.45
If you want to beat the Blues, do it in overtime. In the shootout, their three best shooters rank eighth in the NHL, and goalie Jake Allen is No. 2 in career shootout save percentage among starting goalies. The addition of Ryan O'Reilly gives them another fantastic center with Brayden Schenn, and Alex Pietrangelo is a solid puckmover on the point.
T-12. Columbus Blue Jackets
Rating: 12.80
Sergei Bobrovsky is arguably the league's best goaltender, and Artemi Panarin and Seth Jones will certainly combine for some highlight-reel game-enders. Columbus lacks a star center, though, which hurts a bit. Panarin, Riley Nash and Cam Atkinson combine for 0.479 shootout percentage, which is the best career average for the top three guys on any team.
T-12. Edmonton Oilers
Rating: 12.80
I'd don't care who else is on the ice, I don't want to face Connor McDavid with all that space and an extra point on the line. He's likely to lead the league in points for the third straight season. Beyond the phenom, Leon Draisaitl probably will center a second unit rather than skate with McDavid, which adds balance at the cost of firepower. Cam Talbot is middle of the road, but one of the league's worst in the shootout (.594 save percentage).
T-12. Florida Panthers
Rating: 12.80
Wow, a three-way tie! But Florida deserves to be in the top dozen, albeit with a tie. Aleksander Barkov is an impressive player, and Keith Yandle is one of the best at moving the puck from the point. There's good balance from line to line, too. Florida will have options at wing with Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov and Mike Hoffman.
15. Chicago Blackhawks
Rating: 13.70
The fact that the Hawks graded this low with Corey Crawford penciled in as the starting goalie is concerning because there's no guarantee he's in the crease. Patrick Kane is still a lock to score some goals, but beyond that, there's some questions. Which Jonathan Toews will we see? Will Brandon Saad rebound? Are Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook done? That all factors into how this team will contend in 3-on-3.
16. Philadelphia Flyers
Rating: 16.05
Puzzling, right? Well, this might shock you, but Philly's goalies held the team back. Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, Nolan Patrick, Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk, Travis Konecny, Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov offer this team a ridiculous stable of weapons. But will Brian Elliott keep the puck out of the net long enough for them to finish the job? He ranked 22nd in projected overall save percentage and 24th in career shootout save percentage.
17. Anaheim Ducks
Rating: 16.10
On the flip end of the Flyers' issue, Anaheim is this high because of its goaltender, John Gibson. The cast of skaters is aging in front of him, and it has shown. The Ducks were 25th in overtime success last season.
18. Colorado Avalanche
Rating: 16.15
With a 94-point dip to the No. 2 unit, the Avs are the most front-loaded OT team in the league. Thanks Nathan MacKinnon. Semyon Varlamov is very up-and-down in net, but he's one of the top goalies in the shootout, for what it's worth.
19. Vegas Golden Knights
Rating: 16.20
Like the Preds, the Knights are just too well-balanced to perform well in these rankings. Marc-Andre Fleury is one of the league's best in net, but Vegas lacks an elite defensive quarterback. And again, no fault to the Golden Knights, but a team structured on four strong lines is at a disadvantage when you can only send three skaters out on the ice at a time.
20. Minnesota Wild
Rating: 17.70
Much like the team as a whole, the Wild are very middle-of-the-pack here. Devan Dubnyk is a good goaltender, Mikael Granlund is turning into an exciting offensive threat and Matt Dumba looks primed to take over as the top offensive defenseman. But it all adds up to mediocrity when it comes to OT.
21. Buffalo Sabres
Rating: 18.30
Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin and Casey Mittelstadt will no doubt haunt teams in OT in short time, but not just yet. And Carter Hutton in net is a very unpredictable situation. Eichel and Jeff Skinner will certainly tally some OT winners though.
22. New Jersey Devils
Rating: 18.50
If it were a team full of Taylor Halls, the Devils would probably be No. 1. Alas, it's not, and New Jersey must wait for Nico Hischier to continue his development, Cory Schneider to get his game right and a No. 1 defenseman to fall from the sky.
23. New York Rangers
Rating: 18.80
Behind Mats Zuccarello's soft hands, the Blueshirts are actually No. 2 in the shootout. And Henrik Lundqvist can still steal an occasional game. That's about it for the good news in OT at the Garden. How well Kevin Shattenkirk rebounds from his injury will undoubtedly contribute to how well the Rangers do in overtime as well.
24. Calgary Flames
Rating: 20.05
Mike Smith's numbers aren't great, and despite some creative offensive players, the Flames don't rank too well in the shootout. Best shot at the extra point? Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan teaming up to end it early.
25. Montreal Canadiens
Rating: 21.30
Max Domi, Jonathan Drouin and Jeff Petry make up the worst top trio in the league. Carey Price should rebound a bit, but the team in front of him might be too big an anchor holding back the former MVP.
26. New York Islanders
Rating: 22.35
Yes, you might have guessed that losing John Tavares might hurt a bit. Mathew Barzal can't carry the team on his back, but he might not have a choice.
27. Carolina Hurricanes
Rating: 22.75
Projections might be a little low on the prowess of the top trio of Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho and Dougie Hamilton. Projections can't be low enough for Scott Darling, though (he's projecting a .908 save percentage).
28. Detroit Red Wings
Rating: 23.95
Wait, really? This low? Dylan Larkin and Filip Zadina and ... oh, right. It's still 2018. Give it a few years, Detroit.
29. Arizona Coyotes
Rating: 24.65
The Antti Raanta projections are low (I think he could be a Vezina winner before his career is over), but there still isn't a ton to love about the Coyotes. Let's see how Clayton Keller and Alex Galchenyuk mesh in front of Oliver Ekman-Larsson once Galchenyuk returns from injury. It could at least be a fun trio to watch.
30. Ottawa Senators
Rating: 26.65
Craig Anderson is 37 years old, and the team has been looted of most of its talent up front. The index might like the Sens slightly more than the Canucks, but I'd take that Elias Pettersson-Brock Boeser connection over anything on this roster any day.
31. Vancouver Canucks
Rating: 27.40
Brock Boeser needs to stay healthy, Elias Pettersson needs some seasoning and Jacob Markstrom isn't the answer in net. But Vancouver has already shown in the preseason it will have its share of highlight goals. All that open space in OT could result in some extra points tacked onto the Canucks' record.
Methodology and full rankings
Six factors were used for the formula. We devised a 1-31 ranking in each category and produced a weighted average:
30 percent: Projected points of each team's top center, winger and defenseman. We aren't coaching the teams, so we can't say for sure who will be on the ice to start the extra frame, but we can certainly suggest who ought to be out there. Using RotoWire's detailed projected numbers for this season, we took the player at all three positions with the most projected points, added those numbers up and got a 1-31 rank.
20 percent: Each team's second-highest projected point-getter at center, wing and defense. The top unit isn't playing all five minutes, folks!
20 percent: Each team's No. 1 goalie's projected save percentage. Self-explanatory, but obviously teams with better goalies have a better chance of winning.
15 percent: Average career shootout percentage for each team's top three shootout artists. We used 12 attempts as the benchmark, except in the case of Carolina and Colorado (only two qualified, so we just used the player's percentage with the next most attempts).
10 percent: Career shootout save percentage for the No. 1 goalie. Again, goalies matter.
5 percent: Last year's win percentage in overtime and the shootout. Yes, it's a new season, but taking past success into consideration helps address the intangibles involved in earning that second point.