As the season passes its quarter mark, we can begin identifying contenders and "maybe-next-year" teams as well as potential award winners. But, it is too soon to overreact to the results in a 20-25-game sample.
Whether you're a fantasy player or an NHL general manager, spotting unsustainable trends can be the difference between making a smart decision and a costly one. As far as the analytics revolution has come, one of its earliest concepts -- regression to the mean -- is still one the most valuable.
With that said, let's have a look at some of the players and teams whose early-season numbers are smoke and mirrors:
The Chicago Blackhawks' incredible goaltending
In the team's first 23 games, the Blackhawks have an even-strength team save percentage of .952, which would be .071 better than the best team in the league last season. In fact, it's .010 better than the 5-on-5 save percentage Montreal's Carey Price posted when he won the Hart Trophy and Vezina Trophy in 2014-15.
Starting goalie Corey Crawford, who has a terrific .929 even-strength save percentage for his career and may be the league's most under-appreciated goalie, is currently boasting an absurd .955 mark. Backup Scott Darling is currently at .942 in even-strength save percentage, and finished last season at .919 in the metric.
Spanning out a bit, some of the Blackhawks' issues have been covered up by their crazy-good goaltending. They rank 16th in goals for per 60 minutes at even strength, and 11th in Corsi for percentage. As the goalies come back to earth, their play as a team will have to improve in order to remain one of the NHL's best.
The New York Rangers' goal scoring
Raise your hand if you had Michael Grabner leading the Rangers in goal scoring this season. Make no mistake, the Blueshirts made a savvy decision when they signed the former Islander and Maple Leaf, but even GM Jeff Gorton never would have dreamed that Grabner would have 12 goals in his first 23 games.
Unfortunately for the blazing-fast winger, the hot streak will soon cool. In 274 career games before joining the Rangers, Grabner scored on 11.7 percent of his shots. This season, he has a 22.2 percent shooting percentage. While his shot rate is its highest since 2012-13, Grabner is most likely to fall well short of his 40-plus goal pace.
Grabner isn't the only Ranger to have an unsustainably hot start. The Rangers are the No. 1 team in shooting percentage, with winger Kevin Hayes leading the league at 28.6 percent (10 goals on just 35 shots). Rookie Jimmy Vesey has been a nice surprise, but he is unlikely to continue potting goals on 19.4 percent of his shots.
While some of New York's best scorers will undoubtedly dip, their mediocre Corsi for percentage numbers and high shooting percentages seem to be caused by their style of play. In fact, they were the highest scoring even-strength team last season, while ranking 26th in even-strength shot differential. So maybe their numbers won't fall so far that they will drop from the top spot in the Metro Division.
The Dallas Stars' even-strength problems
Lindy Ruff's bunch was the best in the Western Conference in 2015-16 in scoring at even strength, and second best in even-strength Corsi for percentage. This season, they have dropped to 25th in even-strength goals for per 60 minutes, and 26th in Corsi for percentage.
They won't stay there for long. Injuries have forced several players into action who have had a negative impact on the Stars' attack. Young forwards Devin Shore and Brett Ritchie are under 43 percent in Corsi for percentage, and rookie defenseman Stephen Johns is struggling at 46.8 percent.
Some of Dallas' top players have played at an average level, which is unusual. Tyler Seguin is still dominating the shot counter, improving the team's shot differential by an impressive 5.4 percentage points in Corsi while on the ice, but he has only eight even-strength points in 22 games (0.36 per game), a big drop from 37 in 72 games last season (0.51). In 2015-16, defenseman John Klingberg was being discussed as the next great puck-moving blueliner. This season, he has been benched by Ruff, and has seen a big dip in shot attempts while on the ice.
The Stars shouldn't jump to the conclusion that their team is in trouble. It wouldn't be surprising to see Dallas' go-to guys find their form soon and the entire team improve when players come back from injury.
Sidney Crosby's goal-per-game pace
Sorry, Sid, the 1980s are long gone. The NHL's best player has gone on a scoring spree to start the season, netting a league-leading 15 goals in his first 16 games on just 59 shots. That's good for a 25.4 percent shooting percentage, 10.7 percentage points above his career mark. Crosby's 0.94 goals per game is 0.31 higher than his best full-season rate; in 2009-10, he finished with 51 goals.
This isn't to say that the Pittsburgh Penguins' superstar won't keep playing at an MVP level. Since Mike Sullivan took over for Mike Johnston as Penguins coach in mid-December 2015, Crosby has 86 points in 68 regular-season games.
Ben Bishop's brutal start
The Lightning goalie has been one of the best in the NHL in the previous three seasons, with a .922 save percentage in that span. In 2015-16, Bishop was a Vezina Trophy finalist, an All-Star and even received Hart Trophy votes. Thus far, his save percentage is a sorry .902, and the former Blue and Senator has a goals-against average over three.
While he hasn't been great at even strength, bad luck on the penalty kill has dragged Bishop's numbers down. He's sporting a mere .841 save percentage on the PK, which is well below his .907 and .908 of the past two seasons. Bishop should bounce back pretty quickly.
But if his play continues to slide, the 30-year-old goalie might not get the chance to do so. Backup Andrei Vasilevskiy, 22, has long been regarded as one of the league's top goalie prospects, and in eight starts he has a .951 save percentage.
The Columbus Blue Jackets' fantastic power play
Finally the Blue Jackets' talented young players are starting to have an impact. Former first-round pick forward Alex Wennberg, 22, and rookie blueliner Zach Werenski, 19, have combined for 17 points on the power play in 20 games, leading Columbus' man-advantage attack to a ridiculous 28.3 percent scoring rate.
The Blue Jackets have the talent to continue producing, but the highest power play percentage since 2005-06 has been the 2012-13 Washington Capitals, who scored on 26.8 percent of their chances. Since the Jackets don't have Alex Ovechkin, they will have to be less reliant on 5-on-4 opportunities. The good news for John Tortorella's crew, however, is that they are ninth in goals per 60 minutes at even strength.
Patrice Bergeron's scoring struggles
One of the league's elite all-around players of the past decade has gotten off to a slow start, with only three goals and three assists in 19 games. Not only is Bergeron's 4.3 percent shooting percentage an indicator of bad puck luck, his shot differential is the best in the league. Per 60 minutes with Bergeron on the ice, the Bruins are taking 70 shot attempts to their opponents' 41. It won't be long before more of his and his teammates' find the back of the net.
Also worth noting: Bergeron has just two power-play points. Last season, he posted 25 on the man advantage. There is no reason for panic regarding Boston's top pivot.
Aaron Ekblad's poor Corsi for percentage
The Florida Panthers fired head coach Gerard Gallant this past weekend, reportedly because there was a disconnect in philosophy. There should be reason for concern when the franchise defenseman's Corsi for percentage takes a dive from last season, in part because he is on the ice far too much with a fourth-line forward. When Ekblad is away from Derek MacKenzie, he sports a solid 52.5 percent Corsi for percentage, but with him, it's 38.0 (in 84 minutes).
Gallant also struggled to find a steady partner for his man-child blueliner, switching him from Keith Yandle (137 minutes) to Michael Matheson (90 minutes) to Jakub Kindl (75 minutes) to Mark Pysyk (45 minutes). Finding the proper partner for Ekblad should be one of new bench boss Tom Rowe's first objectives -- after all, he's also the GM who engineered this roster.
The Ottawa Senators' winning record
Ottawa is currently second in the Atlantic Division with a 14-7-1 record. It is hard to see them sustaining that level of success considering the Sens rank 24th in Corsi for percentage and have been outscored at even strength.
So where have they excelled? They are 3-0 in shootouts, and they have a .926 team save percentage in their first 22 games. Considering that last season's best team save percentage was .919, Ottawa's goalies will likely drift back, and they shouldn't expect to have shootouts always go their way.
The Sens have some solid players, but having opponents control the shot counter and relying on out-of-this-world goalie play isn't a model you use to find sustainable success.