Each week in MLB is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
Detroit Tigers OF Riley Greene emerged as a solid fantasy option in 2024, hitting 24 home runs and drawing 64 walks over a career-high 137 games and 583 PA. He was a repeat All-Star this season, earning more notice as the Tigers continue to enjoy their best campaign in more than a decade. However, Greene may not end up more valuable in ESPN standard points leagues this season over last, even as he remains on pace for 40 home runs, because of his astronomical 32.3% strikeout rate.
Don't be surprised... if Greene becomes just the eighth member of the 40-HR/200-K club
Greene is selling out for power, which is fine if it doesn't impact the big picture. In his case, with a plummeting walk rate (dropping from 11% in 2024 to 6.5% this year), that big picture may well be getting hurt. Suddenly, the Tigers have lost nine of 10 games to slip from the top spot in the league. The team is sputtering. It isn't all Greene's fault, but he is hitting only .182 in July with three walks and 31 strikeouts in 66 AB. Fantasy managers are slowly dropping him, as his fantasy value falls short of matching the hype.
Greene isn't alone in adjusting his plate strategy this season. Arizona Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll is nearing a career high in home runs, while striking out and chasing bad pitches far more, and walking less. Carroll's value is down from 2023. Greene's value is roughly the same -- at least so far -- but his profile bears watching, especially for fantasy managers thinking of trading for him as if he is a top points league option. Despite his 25 home runs (tied for eighth in MLB), Greene is not among the top 20 outfielders or top 75 hitters in this scoring format. Blame the whiffs. Nobody has more.
There is some history here, as Greene paces for 40 home runs and a league-leading 212 strikeouts. Only seven players have reached 40/200 in the same season, with Philadelphia Phillies DH Kyle Schwarber getting there twice. New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge hit 52 home runs and whiffed 208 times in 2017. Judge, of course, was so valuable in fantasy that year, as he hit .284 and won AL Rookie of the Year honors. He was nearly the league's MVP, too. Judge is an anomaly, though. The composite batting average for the eight MLB seasons in which a hitter reached 40 home runs and 200 strikeouts is only .232.
The concern here is what happens when Greene's lofty BABIP continues to normalize. Today, it sits at .356, 12th highest among qualified hitters, but it is falling. Greene is hitting .276 overall, but his expected batting average is .252, and July has been rough. Greene's overall hard-hit rate and exit velocity numbers are fine, but not great. Hey, we all love home runs, and Greene is hitting them for an exciting team, but there are reasons to be cautious with expectations in fantasy, too.
Don't be surprised... if dropping Phillies LHP Jesus Luzardo is a mistake
Speaking of BABIP, what a weird season for Luzardo. The strangeness continued on Wednesday, as the former Marlin breezed through four innings at home against the Boston Red Sox, then sputtered in the fifth inning. He walked four batters in the inning, including two with the bases loaded, before ceding a grand slam to lefty-killer Romy Gonzalez. Luzardo should have been lifted before the home run -- four walks, and he is still in there? -- but still, the overall line of six earned runs and five walks (but seven strikeouts and only two hits) is abnormal. Luzardo's ERA is now at a season-high 4.58.
Luzardo's BABIP against is .365, which is so unusually high (second place is Logan Webb at .335) that we would predict far better numbers moving forward. Luzardo also ranks 12th in strikeout percentage. Things don't add up here. Sure, Luzardo permitted 12 earned runs to the Milwaukee Brewers on the last day of May and eight more runs in his next outing against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Phillies suspected he was tipping pitches -- and that may still be the case, as he struggles with men on base (.834 OPS) and with runners in scoring position (.916).
Remove the two awful outings, though, and Luzardo's season ERA is only 3.15. Prior to Wednesday night, that ERA was 2.78. We cannot ignore those Luzardo positives, including his strikeout rate. He needs to fix whatever is wrong when men are on base, and a bit more luck would be nice. The lone starting pitcher to finish with a BABIP higher than .340 since 2021 is RHP Kevin Gausman (.363) in 2022. Gausman still finished that season with excellent numbers. We shall see if Luzardo can turn things around.
Don't be surprised... if Mickey Moniak leads the Colorado Rockies in fantasy points this season
Moniak, the journeyman outfielder best known for being the relative bust of a first overall pick by the Phillies in the 2016 draft, seems to like playing baseball in Denver. He's not alone, of course, but Moniak, released by the Los Angeles Angels on March 25 and signed by the Rockies two days later, is fantasy relevant -- finally! Moniak enters Thursday hitting .275 with a career-high 15 home runs, posting an .895 OPS against right-handed pitching. (That OPS is 1.013 in the high altitude of Coors Field.) So far in July, he is hitting .423/.464/.769. He slugged .760 in June. Don't count on Moniak versus lefties or on the road, but this profile, in this home ballpark, is quite valuable.
The Rockies are not a good baseball team, and finishing with the most fantasy points on the club might not seem like much of an accomplishment, but Moniak (rostered in a mere 5.9% of ESPN standard leagues) enters Thursday averaging 2.9 fantasy points per game over the past 30 days. C/OF Hunter Goodman, their lone All-Star and lone hitter rostered in more than 20% of leagues (how is that possible?), remains fantasy relevant and currently leads the team in fantasy points. However, catchers generally tire over the final months. Can Goodman hold off the charging Moniak? So much to watch in Denver this summer!
Don't be surprised... if three Brewers finish among the top 25 outfielders in fantasy points
You should already know about precocious Brewers sophomore OF Jackson Chourio and longtime veteran and former NL MVP Christian Yelich. Chourio, 21, boasts a lower OPS than in his rookie season, as he chases more pitches and has seen his walk rate plummet to a disturbing 4.2%. But thanks to his ability to pummel lefties, he remains on pace for more than 25 home runs and 25 steals. He is a top-10 fantasy points outfielder, a fantasy building block.
Yelich, 33, has barely played in the outfield this season and should lose that eligibility for 2026, but he has played nearly every game and, like Chourio, may get to 25 homers and 25 steals. He's hitting a ton of ground balls (not good) and is a nonfactor versus lefties (we have seen this before), but he is among the top 25 outfielders. We can't complain about Yelich this season.
Can you name the third outfielder? He is available in 73.5% of leagues! It is the surprising Sal Frelick. The 25-year-old should return from his hamstring injury this weekend. Most fantasy managers probably have little sense of how valuable he has been this season. Frelick is currently the No. 30 outfielder in ESPN points formats, despite offering little power.
Milwaukee's main leadoff option versus right-handers is hitting .294, with one of the top contact rates and one of the lowest strikeout rates. Frelick, like Chourio and Yelich, may also steal 25 bases. Avoiding strikeouts is a big deal in points leagues. Frelick has nearly as many fantasy points as Riley Greene, and more than Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Gunnar Henderson and many, many more. Go get him!