We're down to crunch time as the July 31 MLB trade deadline approaches.
This deadline might lack some of the potential pizzazz of previous years, but remember that the biggest name last year -- Garrett Crochet -- ended up not getting traded until the offseason. But this next week should still be interesting, especially if the Arizona Diamondbacks go all-in on trading some of their key players heading into free agency.
Using ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan's trade deadline preview as a guide, let's conduct a little exercise: take 10 of the biggest names who could move and see how the dominoes might fall. It's one-third prediction, one-third science and one-third entertainment. Last year, we nailed only one of the 10 names correctly (Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers), although seven of the players listed were in fact traded.
Let's start with potentially the most coveted player of this year's deadline -- going to one of the sport's biggest giants.
1. Diamondbacks trade Eugenio Suarez to Yankees
Suarez is not only the hottest hitter who might be traded -- he has 36 home runs if you haven't been paying attention -- but looks like the best player available, barring a blockbuster deal for a pitcher such as Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore. Let's start the dominoes with Suarez, especially since several contenders could use an upgrade at third base:
With Jazz Chisholm Jr. moving to second base, the Yankees are faking third base with the likes of Oswald Peraza and Jorbit Vivas.
The Seattle Mariners have rookie Ben Williamson, a good defender who has hit one home run in 78 games and has a sub-.300 OBP.
Cubs third basemen -- that's mostly rookie Matt Shaw -- have three home runs all season and the lowest OPS in the majors.
The Detroit Tigers are near the bottom of the majors in offensive production at third, although Zach McKinstry has been playing there of late and was an All-Star. In the bigger picture, the Tigers' offense has slumped badly in July after nearly everyone overperformed in the first half, so the front office might be looking to add an impact bat such as Suarez and return McKinstry to a utility role.
The Milwaukee Brewers churned through third basemen early, but Caleb Durbin has played well of late.
And if you want a dark horse, consider the New York Mets, where Mark Vientos hasn't replicated his big numbers from 2024 and Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio have played more lately, although they haven't hit much either. Indeed, with Francisco Lindor struggling the past month, the Mets might need another hitter.
So, who gets Suarez? The Tigers and Cubs are probably more focused on pitching help. The Mariners have an excellent farm system with nine top-100 prospects and know Suarez well after he played there in 2022 and '23, but their offense does lead the majors in road OPS. Given the way they operate, they might not be willing to trade one of those top prospects for a half-a-season player -- and there's a reasonable argument that the only way they're going to catch the Houston Astros is for their rotation to start pitching better.
That leaves the Yankees. General manager Brian Cashman has said the Yankees are "going to go to town" at the trade deadline, suggesting they need a starting pitcher, bullpen help and an infielder. The offense has been better again in July after scuffling in June, but Aaron Judge could still use some help. There is an air of desperation as well with the Yankees, as the Toronto Blue Jays passed them in the standings, and Suarez is clearly a perfect fit for their gaping hole at third.
2. Diamondbacks trade Josh Naylor to Mariners
Naylor is another of Arizona's pending free agents and he'll cost a lot less than Suarez. Heck, if the Mariners are willing to take on the salaries -- unlikely, although if they offer a strong package of prospects, maybe Arizona kicks in some cash -- they could acquire both Naylor and Suarez and build a lethal lineup with Suarez hitting behind Cal Raleigh.
Absent that fanciful thinking, Naylor still makes sense as a solid contact hitter for a team that ranks in the bottom 10 of the majors in strikeout rate. Luke Raley can slide to right field or a bench role. The Mariners also need some bullpen depth and perhaps a right-handed bat that would provide an upgrade over Dylan Moore or Donovan Solano, but Naylor would be a nice addition, nonetheless.
3. Pirates trade David Bednar to Tigers
One key reason not to rule out Suarez to Detroit: History suggests the teams making the biggest deals at the trade deadline aren't the ones chasing a playoff spot or simply trying to hold on to a wild-card berth, but those teams already in first place. The Tigers know they're going to the postseason; they want to make their team better for October. A team that isn't guaranteed a playoff spot is risking future value for a playoff run that might not exist.
At the minimum, the Tigers will be adding to a bullpen that has been hemorrhaging runs of late. Will Vest has remained solid, but Tommy Kahnle had been their other late-game high-leverage reliever and he just had a recent run of nine runs allowed over three outings. Bednar, a two-time All-Star, has rediscovered his feel and command after a rough 2024. He also comes with an additional season of team control. The other top relievers who might be available include Emmanuel Clase of the Cleveland Guardians, and Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax of the Minnesota Twins, but don't look for an intradivision trade there.
4. Royals trade Seth Lugo to Cubs
Where do our first three dominoes leave the Cubs? They could still upgrade third base, although the options are somewhat limited after Suarez. They would like to add a starting pitcher to a rotation that ranks just outside the top 10 in the majors in ERA but might be considered unstable beyond Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga. Passan has the Cubs perhaps thinking really big and going after Gore or Ryan, or the Pirates' Mitch Keller, but we'll play it a little more conservatively.
Of the pitchers heading to free agency, Lugo is the best combination of "good" and "likely to be traded," and the Cubs should be the team most willing to offer what's needed to get him. They have a championship-caliber lineup and defense, plus the bullpen has been solid. Their farm system strength is on the position player side, which also matches up with the Royals' needs. The one potential issue here: Neither Boyd nor Imanaga average a strikeout per inning, and neither does Lugo, so there might be some concern about how that rotation plays in the postseason -- hence, the "think big" idea of Gore or Ryan, even if it means emptying the farm system.
5. Twins trade Griffin Jax to Mets
One guarantee of the trade deadline: The Mets will add to the bullpen, probably with more than one trade. Though the rotation still ranks fifth in ERA, that was built off a hot start. More importantly, the only Mets starter to complete six innings since June 7 has been David Peterson. As a result, manager Carlos Mendoza has run relievers Reed Garrett, Huascar Brazoban, Jose Butto and Ryne Stanek into the ground. The bullpen had a 2.78 ERA through May, but that figure is over 5.00 since the beginning of June (ranking near the bottom of the majors).
The Twins have two high-profile relievers in Duran and Jax, both of whom are under team control through 2027, so they'll be much more expensive than your usual short-term relievers if the Twins decide to trade one or both. Duran would be harder to deal -- but bring more in return -- so we'll say Jax will go. Don't be fooled by his 4.09 ERA: He has 68 strikeouts and 12 walks in 44 innings with a 97-mph heater. He's an elite strikeout reliever, the type you want on the mound in October.
6. Guardians trade Steven Kwan to Dodgers
OK, now it's time for some fun. We know the Dodgers will do something, right? They almost always do -- and it's usually something significant. It could be a reliever, since Tanner Scott has scuffled at times (and was also just put on the injured list because of left elbow inflammation, though his MRI showed no ligament damage) and Michael Kopech is injured. Not to mention their bullpen woes have been on full display lately. It could be a starter, although they're finally trending a little healthier there. So, how about an outfielder and a leadoff hitter?
The reasoning here: Michael Conforto just hasn't worked out. The Dodgers have given him 300 plate appearances and he's hitting under .200, plus he's not a good left fielder. They could also use a leadoff hitter. They just moved Mookie Betts there in front of Shohei Ohtani, looking to get Betts going, but Betts just hasn't been an offensive force in 2025 and shouldn't be hitting at the top of a lineup right now. Kwan would fix both issues and give them a nice OBP guy in front of Ohtani while providing a major defensive upgrade.
Would Cleveland trade Kwan? Jeff and Kiley McDaniel ranked him No. 2 on ESPN's updated list of the top 50 trade candidates, although admittedly gave just a 20% chance that he would be traded. He's under team control through 2027 and is making $4.1 million this season, with a big raise due next year. The Guardians also need power and the Dodgers could offer a nice package of prospects, maybe starting with catcher Dalton Rushing or a potential power-hitting outfielder such as Zyhir Hope or Eduardo Quintero. (Top prospect Josue De Paula is probably off limits.)
7. Pirates trade Mitch Keller to Red Sox
The Keller rumors keep picking up steam. He's signed through 2028, although this type of controllable pitcher is rarely -- ever? -- traded at the deadline. But the Pirates might view this as their best opportunity to add some much-needed offense. As Passan wrote, the Blue Jays also make a lot of sense for Keller, with Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer headed to free agency after this season and then Kevin Gausman after 2026.
But the Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders already in the majors and more hitting prospects in the minors, so they line up as a potential match with Pittsburgh. This could be an old-fashioned challenge trade with the Red Sox offering Jarren Duran, who matches Keller in being under team control through 2028. Or maybe the Pirates would want multiple players -- Kristian Campbell has been squeezed out of a spot in the Boston lineup, for example, and High-A infielder Franklin Arias would be another option.
It's admittedly more likely the Red Sox do something smaller, not wishing to break up their momentum. Manager Alex Cora has managed to keep everyone active, including starting Ceddanne Rafaela at second base a couple of times recently (although you hate taking his glove out of center field). Or don't rule out adding a first baseman, such as Naylor or Ryan O'Hearn. Abraham Toro has done OK filling in for injured Triston Casas, but his track record suggests he could regress at any moment.
8. Orioles trade Ryan O'Hearn to Astros
Speaking of O'Hearn, he's one of several players the Orioles will look to trade -- and might be the one who will generate the most interest. The Astros still hold a six-game lead in the AL West, continuing to play well through a long list of injuries, but general manager Dana Brown has talked about the need to add a left-handed hitter. O'Hearn could play left field for the Astros, who have been using Cooper Hummel, Taylor Trammell and defensive liability Jose Altuve in the outfield lately. Even if the injured Yordan Alvarez makes it back, Altuve could then slide back to second base.
9. Braves trade Marcell Ozuna to Padres
The Padres are one of the potential landing spots for O'Hearn as they look to boost an offense that ranks in the bottom third of the NL in runs scored. Since we have O'Hearn going to the Astros, the domino falls to Ozuna going to the Padres to fill their DH hole. (They don't have a regular there.) His $16 million salary -- or about $5.4 million over the final two months -- might be a little steep for the Padres, but we know that general manager A.J. Preller will do something. He always does. Ozuna's power numbers are down this season, plus he has been terrible the past two months, so there is some risk here, but he had an OBP over .400 in April and May.
10. Diamondbacks trade Merrill Kelly to Blue Jays
The Blue Jays just keep winning, despite a rotation that ranks in the bottom third in the majors in ERA (Eric Lauer has been their best starter of late). We have them missing out on Lugo and Keller, in part because their farm system isn't considered particularly strong, so the final domino on our list is Kelly going to Toronto. Passan had good reasoning as to why the Diamondbacks would be more likely to trade Kelly than Gallen. Both are free agents, but Arizona could look to re-sign the older (and thus less expensive) Kelly in the offseason while keeping Gallen and giving him a qualifying offer to recoup a draft pick if he leaves as a free agent.
A number of contenders didn't land one of the 10 biggest names in our exercise but could certainly still be involved in the trade market. The Philadelphia Phillies, who just signed David Robertson for the bullpen, could still add another reliever and maybe an outfielder. The Texas Rangers haven't gone away and could be in that O'Hearn/Naylor mix for a first baseman (and the relief market as well). The San Francisco Giants could add a starting pitcher -- Zack Littell would be a semi-big splash, with Charlie Morton and Zach Eflin two more Orioles who could be traded.
That's it for our game of dominoes. Now, it's time for the action to begin.