Trade season is about to heat up -- and it promises to be an interesting one, with so many teams still in the thick of playoff races.
With the uncertainty shrouding this year's July 30 deadline, we thought it would be fun to look at how the dominoes might fall as the top names are taken off the market. For this exercise, we'll use ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan's trade deadline preview to focus on the top 10 players who he's hearing might be dealt -- a list that won't include Tarik Skubal (too expensive/too good for the Detroit Tigers to trade), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette (the Toronto Blue Jays will keep them for a run in 2025) or Pete Alonso (the New York Mets are still in the hunt).
We'll begin with a starting pitcher who has come out of nowhere to be one of the best in the game in 2024 -- and one of the most likely candidates to be traded.
1. White Sox trade Garrett Crochet to Orioles
The reliever-to-starter conversion rarely works, but the White Sox -- with nothing to lose this season -- struck gold in turning Crochet into a starting pitcher and now have a power lefty who is one of the best pitchers in the game. Crochet leads the majors in strikeout rate and ranks in the top five in strikeout-to-walk ratio, lowest OPS allowed and FIP (fielding independent pitching). He's making just $800,000 and is controlled through 2026, making him enormously valuable. The only hitch is that he has already thrown more innings this season than in his entire major league career. Recognizing that, the White Sox gave him two abbreviated starts before the All-Star break and then 10 days between starts coming out of the break.
While there will be concerns about fatigue setting in, Crochet has the chance to be the difference-maker of this deadline, a harder-throwing and more dominant version of Jordan Montgomery, who proved to be the big acquisition last year. The Orioles remain the favorite to land Crochet for several reasons:
1. They're trying to hold off the New York Yankees for the American League East title.
2. With Kyle Bradish out for the season, they could use a third big starter to go alongside Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez.
3. Crochet doesn't disrupt this year's payroll and could replace free agent Burnes in next year's rotation.
4. They have the most premium prospects of the contenders looking to land Crochet.
Jackson Holliday remains the gem -- remember, he wouldn't be draft-eligible until next season if he had gone to college -- of a top-heavy system that also includes catcher/first baseman Samuel Basallo and third baseman Coby Mayo, plus young players with major league experience in Heston Kjerstad, Connor Norby and Cade Povich. Any trade will have to start with at least one of Holliday, Basallo or Mayo -- and then go from there. We'll see if general manager Mike Elias has the stomach to make a blockbuster.
2. Tigers trade Jack Flaherty to Dodgers
In a recent breakdown on what the Dodgers might do at the deadline, ESPN's Alden Gonzalez reported that sources familiar with their thinking said starting pitching is the team's top priority. Passan reports that the Dodgers are looking for the highest impact players for their biggest needs. The offense will eventually get a lift when Mookie Betts and Max Muncy return from injuries, but with as much as the Dodgers have invested in this season, they don't want to head into another postseason with the same uncertainty in their rotation as last year.
L.A. is hoping for a late August or early September return for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw is making his first start on Thursday, Tyler Glasnow is about to eclipse his career high in innings and Walker Buehler is out with hip inflammation. Sure, if all those guys are healthy and pitching well come October, that's a great rotation, with Gavin Stone in the mix as well. But the Dodgers want to have every potential possibility covered this year, and given Kershaw's age and postseason history as well as Glasnow's own shaky postseason history (5.72 ERA in 45 innings), adding another frontline starter makes sense.
If they fail to land Crochet, Flaherty should be their next target. He's had a terrific season for the Tigers -- 7-5, 3.13 ERA, 127 strikeouts, 17 walks in 100⅔ innings -- as he's rediscovered his wipeout slider and his command after years of injury. He's just a rental, so the cost is nowhere near what it would take to acquire Crochet. That puts other teams in need of a top starter in the running as well -- think the Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers -- but the Dodgers have the prospect depth and the will to swing a 3-for-1 type of deal.
Backup plan: Nathan Eovaldi, who may be an even better fit with Los Angeles since he has proved himself in the playoffs (5-0 with a 2.98 ERA in six starts in October). He's a potential free agent depending on how his vesting option works out, but the Texas Rangers are just four games back in the AL West. With the Seattle Mariners fading worse than your 1990s Levi's, the Rangers are one great week from closing in on the Houston Astros and a chance to defend their title.
3. White Sox trade Luis Robert Jr. to Phillies
As Passan reports, the Dodgers could also add to their outfield depth with Robert or Randy Arozarena, but Robert to the Phillies is the best bet here.
He's a hard player to put a value on given all his injuries and he's signed through 2027 (so the White Sox will want the moon and Saturn's rings in return), but this is absolutely the year president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski needs to swing big -- just like in 2018 with the Boston Red Sox when he had a 108-win team but still added Eovaldi, Steve Pearce and Ian Kinsler.
The Atlanta Braves are clearly having a down year. The Dodgers are vulnerable. Nobody from the National League Central looks especially scary. The Phillies are the class of the NL. More importantly, you never know how long this World Series window will last. Phillies fans can look back to the 2011 team that won 102 games to understand that point. Like that team, this one has a great rotation and an excellent, but older, lineup. The 2011 Phillies were a dominant team -- and the club didn't finish over .500 again until 2021. If Robert's salary pushes the payroll too high in the upcoming season, fine, you can always trade him in the offseason.
4. White Sox trade Erick Fedde to Astros
On June 18, the Astros were 33-40 and 10 games behind Seattle. It took them just 24 days to catch the Mariners -- the fastest a team has ever made up that much ground in the divisional era (since 1969). While Hunter Brown has turned his season around and Framber Valdez has been better, Houston is still scrambling in its rotation. If it wants to reach an eighth straight ALCS and a fifth World Series in eight years, it'll need another starter.
Since we have the White Sox trading Crochet and Robert, the next obvious candidate is Fedde. After a year in Korea, he signed a two-year deal with the White Sox and is 7-3 with a 2.98 ERA. He's held batters to a .186 average with runners in scoring position, so I'm not sure he's going to keep that ERA below 3.00 the rest of the season, but he's a solid midrotation starter. The issue is whether the Astros have the prospect depth to outbid other teams for Fedde. GM Dana Brown proved last year -- when he acquired Justin Verlander -- that he's willing to be aggressive at the deadline. Look for the Astros to be bold once again.
5. Marlins trade Tanner Scott to Yankees
The Yankees are just 10-21 since June 15 and the rotation has the worst ERA in the majors since that date. So, yes, they could consider a starter. And, sure, the lineup could use another hitter, but Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have been so good that the Yankees are still essentially tied with the Orioles for the AL lead in runs scored. As Passan reports, the Yankees are all-in this deadline -- and that means top prospects Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones "aren't entirely off the table."
Acquiring Crochet is probably the only scenario where one of those two might be traded, but we have Crochet going to the Orioles -- and GM Brian Cashman has to hope the rotation bounces back. The best match for a bat is Rays third baseman Isaac Paredes -- Yankees third basemen are hitting .231/.293/.311 -- but those intradivision trades are difficult to pull off. So the dominos land here on a reliever. Scott had control problems in April, but he has settled in nicely, with 27 scoreless appearances in his past 28 outings. He's a power lefty who can close or set up -- and face the Gunnar Henderson portion of Baltimore's lineup. And Scott won't cost you Dominguez or Jones.
6. Athletics trade Brent Rooker to Royals
From the "You Can't Predict Baseball" files, the A's claimed Rooker on waivers from the Royals after the 2022 season. He made the All-Star team last year. He's been even better this season, hitting .291/.370/.578 with 23 home runs, ranking eighth in the majors in OPS. He strikes out a ton and is pretty much limited to DH (he's started just 13 games in the outfield) but he's making $750,000 while being under team control for three more seasons. He's the best bat out there.
But will the A's trade him? Teams don't usually give up much for DHs -- and a lot of the top contenders have the position filled already, either with a full-time DH (Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Giancarlo Stanton when he returns) or a rotation of players (Orioles, Brewers, Cardinals). On the other hand, the A's may see this as a chance to flip a player who was free talent -- before that BABIP starts regressing. The Royals do have Salvador Perez to DH when he's not catching, but they can play Rooker on a corner on those days and live with his glove (it's not like Hunter Renfroe and MJ Melendez are Gold Glovers, anyway, and neither is providing much offense). You could include the Mariners or Rangers as possibilities here, but the Royals have a lot of good vibes going and the AL Central race has tightened. Get Bobby Witt Jr. some help.
7. Rays trade Randy Arozarena to Braves
Paredes is having the better season, but he comes with three more years of team control as opposed to two for Arozarena, plus he makes less money ($3.4 million to $8.1 million). With an eye on next year's payroll, it feels like Tampa Bay is more likely to trade Arozarena, even if he'll bring less in return. Passan reports that the Rays are in adding and subtracting mode, so they're probably going to desire prospects close to the majors. The Braves need an outfielder and have pitchers such as Hurston Waldrep and A.J. Smith-Shawver, who already have major league experience (although Waldrep is out with elbow inflammation). Bryce Elder, a 2023 All-Star, has perhaps worn out his welcome in Atlanta with a poor season and could be somebody the Rays' analytics guys can fix.
As for Paredes, we mentioned the Yankees as a match and the unlikelihood of a deal there. The Mariners need a hitter but Tampa Bay would likely balk at Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo -- although Seattle does have some intriguing position player prospects such as Harry Ford or Cole Young who the Rays could pursue. If the Dodgers think Paredes could handle second, that's another possibility -- and they could be in on Arozarena as well (as could the Phillies, who could play Arozarena in left and Brandon Marsh in center).
8. Rays trade Zach Eflin to Twins
As Jeff wrote in his deadline preview piece, "Deadlines like this are where great teams of the future can be built, and Tampa Bay knows as well as any team in baseball how to navigate them," that's why the Rays might not stop at Arozarena and/or Paredes. Eflin is signed for another season, but his salary bumps from $11 million to $18 million in 2025. Do you think the Rays want to carry that salary on next year's payroll? This might depend on how confident they are in getting Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen back for next season (Rasmussen just began a rehab assignment), but if they get that trio back and another potential starter or two in an Arozarena deal, maybe they look to flip Eflin as well.
The St. Louis Cardinals, Brewers, Guardians and Astros would be in the mix here (leaving out the AL East rivals), but Milwaukee and Cleveland may not be all-in on bringing aboard Eflin's salary, even for just a few million this season. The Twins are just 22nd in the majors in rotation ERA, are in the thick of that three-way AL Central race and have an interesting farm system beyond the untouchables such as Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee.
9. Marlins trade Jazz Chisholm Jr. to Orioles
Cedric Mullins has been through the bad days with the Orioles and has been a key player in their revival that began in 2022. You hate to give up on a fan favorite like that, but Mullins is the one hole in an otherwise stellar lineup, hitting .216 with a .258 OBP. He did have a great June but is struggling again in July. Chisholm is the one Marlins hitter with an above-average OPS -- and you can imagine that the Orioles coaching staff would love to get their hands on a talented player such as Chisholm and see what he can do away from the dungeon of Miami.
Although, yes, Chisholm's brashness might limit his market, as Passan reports. He's under team control for two more years, so there's no need for the Marlins to make a deal, but he's also attractive since he's making $2.625 million. He won't cost the Orioles any of those top prospects like a Crochet deal would -- and he should make the team better (while also giving them a center fielder for next year) without disrupting their payroll. The more I think about this, the more I like it, and you have to believe Baltimore has enough leadership to make sure Chisholm fits into the Orioles' way.
10. Nationals trade Lane Thomas, Kyle Finnegan to Mariners
OK, we're giving you two for the price of one here -- so it's a bonus 11th player! Cody Bellinger and Jameson Taillon would be possibilities for the top 10, given Jesse Rogers' reporting that the Cubs have told teams they would be willing to trade some of their vets. However, Bellinger is currently injured, and given his mediocre season, he's likely to take his $27.5 million option for next year. That makes him difficult to trade; same with Taillon, who is owed $36 million for the next two seasons.
The sinking Mariners, however, will probably do something -- but not anything too big (like trading one of their starting pitchers) or too drastic (like adding payroll, since the whole offseason had been about shuffling players around in order to not increase payroll). Thomas and Finnegan plug holes in the outfield and bullpen and won't cost president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto any of his top prospects. It's not a major deal, and they'll still need the existing players to start hitting, but the Mariners need to do something at the deadline.