Traditionally, by Thanksgiving, enough NHL games have been played that you can feel good about making a public declaration of what a team is shaping up to be in a season. With Thanksgiving on the horizon and most teams closing in on 20 games, general managers and coaches have usually seen enough to make comfortable assessments about what they have on their rosters.
But the NHL is changing. The standings are more compressed. The difference between the best and the worst team is as small as it’s ever been. One injury can change things dramatically; so can a coaching change.
Looking at the standings on this date a year ago didn’t provide the clarity it might have in the past. Montreal was in first place, with a 16-4-2 record; ultimately, the Canadiens didn’t even make the playoffs. The Senators were 10-5-5; they didn't either. Pittsburgh was spinning its wheels at 12-8-0, not quite the powerhouse the Penguins would eventually become after Mike Sullivan took over as coach.
But there were also trends that ended up playing out over the course of the season. The Sharks were on top of the Pacific on this date last year and ended up winning the West. The Stars were on top in the Central and ended up winning it. The Blackhawks weren’t the dominant team they were in the past and ended up being knocked out in round one of the playoffs. The Oilers and Maple Leafs were last in their respective conferences and would stay that way.
So as Thanksgiving closes in, here’s a look at the preseason expectations of each team and what reality is proving they may be instead:
What we thought: The coaching change from Bruce Boudreau to Randy Carlyle might lead to a step back, especially as stars Ryan Getzlaf, Ryan Kesler and Corey Perry get older.
What they are: The Ducks are hanging around and should be in the mix in a mediocre division. Still, one NHL scout believes the constant tweaks and trade rumors are taking a toll.
“There’s too much movement going on there personnel-wise,” he said. “Having Hampus Lindholm not there to start the year and combine it with Cam Fowler trade rumors, it just doesn’t bode well for the room.”
What we thought: With so much young talent, this could be the NHL’s version of Team North America. Go young and shock the world!
What they are: Young and inexperienced and a little too green for consistent play. Dylan Strome being sent back to his junior team is just the latest indication that the young players on this team just aren’t quite ready yet.
On the plus side, new additions to the defense Jakob Chychrun and Tony DeAngelo look promising. There are pieces here, but the Coyotes still have work to do and are at least a year away from mounting a serious challenge for a playoff spot.
What we thought: The needs on defense weren’t addressed, so it was hard to envision the Bruins being much better than last season.
What they are: This is the league’s No. 2 possession team, at 53.9 percent in Corsi for percentage. Zdeno Chara has been better than he should be at age 39 and has helped successfully break Brandon Carlo into the NHL. Tuukka Rask is back to being Tuukka Rask.
They’re also top-heavy and too reliant on their top six forwards. That’s a fairly easy fix though for GM Don Sweeney, since depth forwards are the lowest-hanging fruit when trade season opens. A couple of roster tweaks could go a long way in solidifying the Bruins as a contender.
What we thought: This team is trending in the right direction. Dan Bylsma will have them on the cusp of making the playoffs.
What they are: Treading water. Give the Sabres credit, they’ve been hit hard by injuries and still are hanging around. If they can stay within shouting distance of the playoffs until Jack Eichel returns, this is still a team with the potential to continue the climb north if they can battle through it mentally.
An Eastern Conference scout has concerns about that though.
“I don’t believe in their leadership group. Evander Kane, Ryan O'Reilly, Kyle Okposo, Robin Lehner, that’s the core. There’s not a lot of character there,” he said.
What we thought: This is a good, young team headed in the right direction and ready to challenge for a spot in the Pacific division’s top three.
What they are: Struggling to score goals and now playing without their best goal-scorer, Johnny Gaudreau. The Flames are closer to the bottom of the Pacific than the top but are showing signs of improvement lately. I’m not quite ready to give up on this group.
“We need to chip away,” said coach Glen Gulutzan. “I really like the way our game has come, even though the wins are lagging.”
What we thought: It’s Carolina’s time! Get on board! This team is headed to the playoffs!
What they are: Seventh in the Metropolitan division. Cam Ward is heating up, but Carolina still has an even-strength save percentage that is No. 25 in the league. The Hurricanes are a top-three possession team in the league, so there’s still room for this team to make a run if it continues to get solid goaltending.
What we thought: The defense was as deep as it's been in a while, but concerns about the forward depth were serious enough that we believed them to be closer to playoff bubble than division title.
What they are: They’re in first place in the Central and threatening to run away with it. Marian Hossa took a drink from the fountain of youth, while Artem Anisimov is pushing the NHL's scoring leaders. The Blackhawks are still a little top-heavy at forward, but there are enough good, young players in those ranks that Chicago should be able to maintain its success.
“[Vincent] Hinostroza is the X factor for me,” said one scout. “Go watch his last two games. He’s quick. He’s tenacious. He gets in there and battles. He can make plays. He’s extremely skilled. I think he’s a winger rather than a center, and they finally moved him to the wing. He’s got wheels and can be a difference-maker.”
What we thought: A coaching change could finally help maximize the potential of a talented but underachieving group.
What they are: Last in the Central but with a PDO that is No. 25 in the league (PDO is a shooting and save percentage metric that serves as a proxy for luck). They might be a candidate for better luck, but the problems in Colorado might not have been all on Patrick Roy.
There are some issues on this roster.
“[Jarome] Iginla is aging. [Francois] Beauchemin is aging. I think they’re going to trade Matt Duchene even though I wouldn’t,” said the scout. “They’re going to reset the ship there at some point.”
What we thought: This is a rebuilding team that is still probably a year or two away from putting it together.
What they are: A team right in the thick of a playoff race that is thriving under the leadership of John Tortorella and the play of young stars Zach Werenski and Alexander Wennberg. Columbus is also home of the league’s best power play.
What’s the biggest reason for the strong start?
“Hard to name one,” texted GM Jarmo Kekalainen. “Goaltending, one great freshman, playing as a team, coaches doing a great job [and the] best players being best players again.”
If the power play comes back to earth, Columbus may be a team poised for a bit of a correction, but the Blue Jackets have found ways to win the type of games they'd lost in the past. That’s a positive sign.
What we thought: The Stars are a goalie away from being a Stanley Cup contender.
What they are: The Stars have an even-strength save percentage of .920, which is in line with what was expected, but the one-word answer here is: injured. No team has been hurt more by injury and the World Cup than the Stars. It’s been hard to get a bead on evaluating this team because so many players have been in and out of the lineup.
“Injuries have killed them,” said the scout. “The guy that has surprised me the most is Patrick Eaves, but he has an unbelievable shot, his hands are really good. They’re a good team. It’s just been about the injuries with them.”
What we thought: With talented young forwards and reinforcements brought in by GM Ken Holland in free agency, the Red Wings' playoff streak is very much in reach.
What they are: Offensively inept. The Red Wings may look back at this stretch of strong goaltending as a wasted opportunity. Jimmy Howard has been great but has received zero offensive support. The Red Wings are No. 29 in possession, controlling just 45.7 percent of the even-strength shot attempts in their games. It’s hard to score when the puck is in your own zone that frequently.
This team needs more speed and skill on the back end to help transition the puck out of trouble, and the longer it takes to acquire a defenseman, the longer the playoff odds become in Detroit.
“My message to the defensemen if I were [Red Wings coach] Jeff Blashill would be to just get the puck up the ice, get it out of the zone. Bang it off the glass if you have to,” said the scout. “Get it to the forwards and let them do what they do.”
What we thought: A full season of Connor McDavid plus roster tweaks made by GM Peter Chiarelli should put the Oilers squarely in the playoff hunt.
What they are: They’re in first place in the Pacific, which says more about the Pacific than it does about the Oilers, but it’s fair to say Edmonton has exceeded expectations a bit to start the season.
McDavid has been as good as expected, Cam Talbot has been rock solid in goal and the Oilers are right where they need to be in their development. Finally, the progress that has been anticipated for years in Edmonton is starting to materialize, and it's happened with two recent No. 1 overall draft picks (Taylor Hall, Nail Yakupov) playing elsewhere.
What we thought: There were a lot of roster changes for a team that won the division, but the rebuilt defense looked promising and built for the modern game. The Panthers should live among the East’s contenders.
What they are: Very average. You know who hasn’t been particularly good this season? Aaron Ekblad. He’s sitting at a minus-8, and the Panthers control just 48.9 percent of the shot attempts when he’s on the ice.
“They’re overplaying him,” said the scout. “He’s not a 30-minutes-a-night guy.”
It’s also been suggested that the defense misses the edge provided by Erik Gudbranson and Dmitry Kulikov, with the swing toward skill making the Panthers just a little too easy to play against.
Overall, it’s taking longer for the new defenseman to mesh than fans in Florida would have hoped.
What we thought: An aging roster and concerns on depth put the Kings on the playoff bubble.
What they are: They’re in a wild-card spot, but barely, so they’re just about where we thought. The positive is that the Kings are again a possession machine, sitting in the top four there, and have managed to stay afloat without franchise goalie Jonathan Quick. You still can’t count out the Kings.
What we thought: Borderline playoff team whose biggest hope may lie in the hands of a coaching change that brought in the proven Bruce Boudreau.
What they are: Borderline playoff team that is still feeling its way through the coaching change.
“There’s been a real adjustment period with Bruce,” said GM Chuck Fletcher. “I think over time we’re going to develop better chemistry. Early in the season, players were caught between two roads a little bit. You could see oftentimes they were thinking their way around the ice instead of playing and reacting. I think the pace of our game will pick up. I think our chemistry will pick up.”
What we thought: The return of Carey Price and the addition of Shea Weber will put the Canadiens back in the playoffs, if there isn’t an implosion under coach Michel Therrien.
What they are: They’ve emerged as a surprise Stanley Cup contender. Shea Weber has been everything the Canadiens hoped, and Carey Price is the Hart Trophy front-runner.
The explanation for Montreal’s success may be as simple as the return and high-end play of Price, but there are some people in hockey who believe the subtraction of P.K. Subban has been a real positive for that dressing room.
What we thought: This was my Western Conference champion. So, yeah, expectations were high.
What they are: After a slow start, they’re coming on with a 6-2-2 record in their last 10 games. But Nashville is still just below the playoff line. Talent isn’t an issue on this team, but we might have underestimated how great a leadership loss Shea Weber would be in that room.
“I feel better about our team because we’re winning,” said GM David Poile. “I still feel we have a really good team. I still feel we have a lot of potential to play better.”
What we thought: Taylor Hall helps, but the Devils now have a gaping hole on defense. There’s just not enough depth here for the Devils to capitalize on having one of the three best goalies in the game.
What they are: Somehow, they’re in a playoff spot. The longer it lasts, the more people are starting to realize just how good a coach the Devils have in John Hynes.
“He’s phenomenal,” said one player who played for him. “He’s that good. He knows when to pat you on the back and when to kick you in the [butt]. He knows how to relate to guys. He’s structurally sound. He understands the details of the game, and all of those things matter. He harps on the details, and you can see it in how his teams play.”
What we thought: This is a team that lost key players but still has good young talent and a great franchise center in John Tavares. They should be competing for a playoff spot.
What they are: Last. There’s not a bigger disappointment in the league than the Islanders. Plenty of fingers have been pointed at the coach, but the offseason turned in by GM Garth Snow is the bigger issue.
“They lost a number of goals,” said one NHL coach. “It’s so hard to score in this league.”
The Islanders are a team ripe for a major change.
What we thought: Henrik Lundqvist is declining, and the roster is in transition. This was a team poised for a possible step back.
What they are: The Rangers have used their depth up front to open a four-point lead in the Metropolitan division. The defense has done a nice job of quickly getting the puck off their sticks and up to the forwards, capitalizing on the speed up front.
“But now Mika Zibanejad is down. Pavel Buchnevich is down. They’ve hit adversity, so we’ll see how they respond,” said the scout.
Their 12.4 percent even-strength shooting percentage is also a major outlier, so they’re a candidate for a decline when that number inevitably comes down.
What we thought: Completely average.
What they are: The Senators have actually been a little better than expected, and they’ve done it while shooting a paltry 5.3 percent at even strength. Craig Anderson has been great, with a .928 save percentage.
Their 97.2 PDO suggests they may be due better luck as the season continues. Credit new coach Guy Boucher with keeping this team competitive.
What we thought: After a surprise playoff appearance last spring, this team was a candidate for a step backward as often happens in the development cycle of a rebuilding team.
What they are: The fact that the Flyers are actually near the playoff cutoff while getting goaltending as bad as they have received says a lot for the rest of the roster. Philadelphia is currently dead last in the NHL with a .891 even-strength save percentage.
They’re getting balanced production out of their forward groups and inconsistent play from a young defense. There are definitely growing pains in Philadelphia, but if the goaltending shores up, the Flyers are still a team capable of returning to relevance.
What we thought: They’re the Stanley Cup champs. They’re the model by which other teams in the East should mold their teams.
What they are: They haven’t been entirely consistent, but it’s asking a lot for the reigning champ to come out and hit the ground running. The Penguins have to cut down on penalties, but we trust that coach Mike Sullivan won’t let that issue linger too long in Pittsburgh.
Already loaded at forward, the Penguins may have another good one in Jake Guentzel, who scored twice in his debut.
What we thought: Very capable of repeating as Western Conference champs.
What they are: Not scoring goals at a rate nearly high enough to be considered a Stanley Cup contender. Another injury for Tomas Hertl is concerning too.
But this team is built the right way, has balance at forward and depth on defense. We’ll excuse a lackluster start for a team coming off a long, grinding postseason run.
What we thought: The Blues might take a step back after losing a lot of leadership and key players from last year’s Western Conference finalists.
What they are: After a slow start, the Blues are now second in the Central.
Depth is such a weapon right now in the NHL, and the Blues have it even after their offseason subtractions.
“There are so many guys there, if some guys are cold the other guys will pick up the slack and vice versa,” said a scout.
The Blues are the best possession team in the NHL, and if they can keep it rolling, they should threaten Chicago’s spot at the top of the Central.
What we thought: They’re going to win it all.
What they are: The Steven Stamkos injury is a tough one for the Lightning, but they’ve done nothing to hurt our confidence that they will be one of the last teams standing in the East. Even with the Stamkos injury, they Lightning are tough to beat.
“They have so much depth,” said one scout. “They’ll be fine.”
What we thought: This is a loaded young roster that might surprise with a playoff push. Mike Babcock was my preseason Jack Adams pick.
What they are: They’re currently two points out of a playoff spot. Auston Matthews, even with his scoring slump, has been fantastic.
“There’s been no change in his attitude or approach,” said teammate Morgan Rielly of Matthews' lack of scoring. “That’s a good sign.”
Mitch Marner is another rising star who has been Toronto’s best player on the ice on many nights.
There might not be enough depth on defense or experience to pull off a playoff berth, but the sheer amount of skill on this roster puts the Maple Leafs in every game. They’re a blast to watch, too.
What we thought: This would be a rebuilding season for a team that is stuck in an uncomfortable transition.
What they are: A team that will be competing for the top pick in the draft. They are who we thought they were.
“I think we had a realistic expectation coming into the season with where we are in the process and what that looks like,” said president Trevor Linden. “We knew where our challenges were this year. That was on the offensive side. We’ve done a better job with our goaltending and defense. We’ve played with better structure, but we’ve had a heck of a time scoring early on.”
What we thought: If the Lightning don’t win the East, the Capitals will.
What they are: They’re very balanced up front, which is a major advantage in today’s game, and that has helped them survive a slow start from Evgeny Kuznetsov. This roster is built to win now, and the Capitals have done nothing in the early going to raise any major concerns.
What we thought: This is a good, young roster ready to make a playoff push. They may even be a postseason sleeper.
What they are: They’ve been crushed by injuries, an impossible schedule and the distraction that came with a Jacob Trouba holdout -- and are still on the cusp of being really good.
Mark Scheifele could be a dark horse Hart Trophy candidate.
“Scheifele and [Patrik] Laine are unreal. I like a lot of their pieces,” said an NHL scout. “They have a great team; they have to get everybody back. Their back end is really strong, if they can stop playing Dustin Byfuglien 35 minutes a night. He’s all over the place. They’re big, they’re strong, they’re physical. I really like a lot of their pieces.”