There are more quality goalies in the NHL right now than at any point in league history. It makes it harder than ever to stand out.
That's what makes Carey Price so special. In a league of good goalies, he's truly great. After asking a group of 10 executives and coaches to rate all 30 NHL starting goalies on a scale of one to five for our annual Goalie Tiers project, it was clear just how much Price has elevated himself above the rest of the pack.
"It seems like his game has elevated and the guys he's competing with at the top have dropped," one NHL coach said. "He's on another planet. Not even another level."
In three years of compiling these goalie tiers, with one being the highest rating and five the lowest, Price has earned a one rating on 37 of 38 ballots. He earned a two on the other ballot. Nobody else is even close.
Here's a look at the results of all 30 starting goalies heading into 2016-17:
The panel: Three NHL team executives, four NHL coaches, two NHL scouts and former Blues goalie coach Corey Hirsch. All panelists were granted anonymity, except for Hirsch because he couldn't care less.
The scale: These are projections on how panelists see the goalies playing this season. Panelists were able to rate on a quarter point if they wanted, allowing a rating, for example, of 2.75. A one is reserved for the truly elite. A three is for an average starting goalie. A four or five means the team should consider a replacement.
Tier 1
1. Carey Price, Montreal Canadiens
2016: 1.00
2015: 1.00
2014: 1.07
He's the best in the game right now. Hands down.
"He sees the game at a pace that nobody sees it right now," one goalie coach said. "He is so technical. He was really solid in the World Cup, so just watching him move around and play as relaxed as he played, you can throw out last year. It didn't exist. He is the defending MVP. Last year didn't exist for him."
The only concern to watch is if there are any lingering effects of the knee injury that sidelined him for most of last season.
"When you come back from an injury like that, it's Christmastime before you're really rounding into form," Hirsch said. "Carey Price wasn't tested in the World Cup, let's be honest. So if he can be really good before Christmastime, back to himself, I'll be surprised. I won't be surprised if he has a tough first half."
Tier 2
2. Cory Schneider, New Jersey Devils
2016: 1.48
2015: 1.61
2014: 2.00
Even though Braden Holtby is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner, it's Schneider who drew the closest comparisons to Price.
"He's the closest thing patience-wise as there is to Price," the goalie coach said.
"He's closer to Carey Price than anybody," an NHL scout said. "For a guy who hasn't been handed anything, he continues to just play well. He's very reliable."
"He's not all that far from Price," an executive said. "He's a good athlete. Apparently, he's a great guy. Works his [rear] off. Teammates love him. He's in a tough spot and has been in a tough spot for a long time."
3. Braden Holtby, Washington Capitals
2016: 1.65
2015: 2.11
2014: 3.07
Nobody saw more shots than Holtby did in 2014-15. Last season, he led the league in wins and started 66 games. Still, there appears to be some hesitation to put him in Price's class.
"Here's the difference: I don't think Montreal defends like the Capitals defend," one coach said. "That gives Holtby a leg up statistically."
Said a Western Conference GM: "He's really good. He still has to do it for another year. Price and [Henrik] Lundqvist are above the rest, then there's another level after that."
Holtby is still near the very top of the league. "He's scratching that surface," an Eastern Conference scout said. "He's not Carey Price, but he's one of the top five guys in the league."
4. Ben Bishop, Tampa Bay Lightning
2016: 1.75
2015: 2.00
2014: 2.07
He earned a rock-solid one rating from one of the head coaches because of the volume and quality of shots Bishop faces in Tampa Bay.
"Tampa plays a style that they give up real chances. He makes a ton of saves," an Eastern Conference head coach said. "He stays on his edges for a big guy. He can win games on his own."
There was some concern among panelists that Bishop seems to get hurt in big moments, and they're not quite sure how he's going to react to the combination of a contract year and the push coming from backup Andrei Vasilevskiy.
"It's a lot of pressure," a scout said. "They have a lot of good moving parts coming back. Great coach. I don't know how he's going to react to the pressure."
5. Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers
2016: 1.85
2015: 1.04
2014: 1.00
This is the lowest Lundqvist has ever been ranked in the Goalie Tiers project, as concerns about his age (34) have set in.
"He's declining and defensively as a franchise they have begun to decline," the goalie coach said. "The way the game is going, it's going to be harder and harder to get to even the mid-30s [in age]. It's just the speed and how the young goalies are so well-trained, how much bigger they are, and how fundamental they are coming in. The next generation is going to start coming in quicker."
"He's dropped off a little bit for me," the scout said. "I hate to say it, but I think he's on the backside of things now."
The two GMs weren't so quick to declare Lundqvist in decline. "He's still pretty damn good," one said. "The Rangers bought a lot of years there on the back end that might not be pretty, but I wouldn't count him out. He's done it year after year."
"He's fine," the other said. 'He's a one. He's right up there with anyone over the last number of years."
6. Corey Crawford, Chicago Blackhawks
2016: 1.90
2015: 1.82
2014: 2.50
Crawford has earned respect around the league, but there's always that hint of doubt that he's the beneficiary of playing on a great team.
"I don't see Corey Crawford winning many games by himself," one assistant GM said. "The Hawks are able to absorb soft bad goals because of their team confidence and collective success."
Said one GM: "A lot of his success is team-based. I don't believe in the concept of timely saves."
But Crawford definitely has his defenders. The goalie coach said Crawford has won him over with his ability and to maximize his talent.
"I get more impressed with Corey Crawford every year," one scout said. "I don't know if he ever gets the credit, but he wins -- and he doesn't win because his team is so good defensively. Chicago gives up chances. He bounces back when he has a bad game. I like him. I don't know if he was on an average team if he's going to win you games night after night, but he's perfect for that team."
7. Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles Kings
2016: 1.95
2015: 1.21
2014: 1.00
This is big drop for Quick, who used to be locked in at the top of these rankings with Price and Lundqvist. In 2014, he earned a one rating from every panelist. Some panelists saw a decline coming in Quick's game as the team in front of him declines, but there are still those who think he deserves to be considered in that top class.
"He's big, mobile, he competes, he's focused and he's a pro," one executive said. "He gives his team a chance to win every night. I haven't soured on him."
"I think their team has deteriorated," one head coach said. "But he's still that good."
Tier 3
8. Matt Murray, Pittsburgh Penguins
2016: 2.28
2015: N/A
2014: N/A
The phrase "sample size" came up often when evaluating Murray, but his play during the playoffs definitely made an impression.
"You just can't anoint him just yet," one GM said.
There was a belief that the Penguins dodged a bullet with Murray's injury, because it eliminated all talk of a goalie controversy in Pittsburgh and debate over who should start game No. 1. Now when Murray is ready, he and Marc-Andre Fleury can both battle for playing time rather than having one declared the starter.
According to the goalie coach, there really isn't much of a gap between the two goalies in Pittsburgh. "Probably not significant," he said. "Marc makes saves in a flamboyant way. When he's not on, they go in. Murray makes saves in a pretty quiet way. When he's not on, the pucks probably still hit him. He has more room for error."
9. (tied) Pekka Rinne, Nashville Predators
2016: 2.53
2015: 1.11
2014: 1.50
Rinne is another goalie who had a sterling reputation but whose recent play has created doubts around the league.
He had a .930 save percentage when he finished second in the Vezina voting during the 2010-11 season. It dropped to .908 last season.
"He used to be unreal," one head coach said. "I don't know now."
"He hasn't been good," a GM said. "That's just the facts."
9. (tied) Sergei Bobrovsky, Columbus Blue Jackets
2016: 2.53
2015: 1.68
2014: 1.86
His strong play for Team Russia during the World Cup was noticed, and if he plays like that in Columbus during the regular season, the Blue Jackets will make the playoffs.
That's a big if.
"I just don't know if that play is sustainable," the goalie coach said.
"He lost his confidence last year," an exec said. "But he's a hard worker. Professional. This guy is all business all the time."
"He's so talented and he battles so hard," one GM said.
9. (tied) Tuukka Rask, Boston Bruins
2016: 2.53
2015: 1.57
2014: 1.29
Nobody seemed to know what to do with Rask.
"He's showing cracks he didn't have in his game before," one scout said.
The decline of the Bruins' defense the past couple seasons doesn't help the cause, either. But those who like Rask, really like Rask.
"He just didn't have a great year. That's all," one exec said. "You can have an off year."
"I think he bounces back and has a huge year," a scout said. "He's a hell of a talent. Boston is strong up front, down the middle. Their back end is shaky but they're going to be OK because Tuukka will stand on his head. He'll keep them in a lot of games."
12. (tied) Martin Jones, San Jose Sharks
2016: 2.60
2015: 3.04
2014: N/A
Jones is still in prove-it mode for panelists.
"The second year is always harder than the first one," the goalie coach said. "But his team will allow him to be successful."
Jones is one of the best candidates in this tier to work his way up.
"He may vault up there, but in the second half of last year, everything went right for San Jose," a Western Conference GM said. "They get full marks, but every year it's a different team that has one of those runs."
12. (tied) Roberto Luongo, Florida Panthers
2016: 2.60
2015: 2.36
2014: 2.07
Injuries and age are slowing Luongo down, but he still seemed to be appreciated by panelists.
"I thought Loui had the best year of his career last year," one panelist said. "He faded at the end, but played more like a goalie and less like a robot."
The contract that the Panthers gave James Reimer definitely raised eyebrows about Luongo's long-term sustainability. "Maybe they know something we don't know about Luongo," a coach said.
14. Semyon Varlamov, Colorado Avalanche
2016: 2.73
2015: 1.96
2014: 1.93
One GM gave him a low score but didn't feel great about it.
"He could make me look bad because he's so talented," he said. "When he's on, he's unbeatable."
Said a scout: "I like this guy, he battles. That team, they're tough defensively on the goalie on some nights."
15. (tied) Brian Elliott, Calgary Flames
2016: 2.85
2015: N/A
2014: 2.86
Elliott is leaving the comfort of a Ken Hitchcock defensive system and will have the pressure that comes with being the No. 1 goalie full time in Calgary, but the consensus is that he can handle it.
"He's a better goalie than people ever give him credit for," one scout said. "Very, very stable."
Hirsch knows Elliott as well as anybody, and sees him as the perfect bridge to Flames prospect Jon Gillies.
"He's starting to get to the other side too. He's got two or three years left," Hirsch said. "I can see him being a guy that will slowly give [the job] up to Gillies. This year, he'll give Calgary a chance to make the playoffs."
15. (tied) Frederik Andersen, Toronto Maple Leafs
2016: 2.85
2015: 2.54
2014: N/A
He's talented, but there are concerns about the move from Anaheim to Toronto, to go with conditioning issues that multiple panelists mentioned.
"If he's out of shape, Mike Babcock will not be happy with that," Hirsch said. "That could be another Mike Keenan-and-Grant Fuhr situation. But Andersen, he's got ability."
"He's really talented," the goalie coach said. "The busier he is, though, the more likely he'll get hurt. He's really talented, but he's never played in this setting before. He's going to have great moments and bad moments that aren't his fault."
Said one GM: "He's going to be under siege. It's going to be much different than playing in Anaheim's defense. I'm curious to see how he does."
17. Cam Talbot, Edmonton Oilers
2016: 2.93
2015: 2.75
2014: N/A
He came on in the second half of last season, and those who observed his play for Team Canada during the World Championships gained an appreciation for his game, especially the way he bounced back from a slow start.
"He's really efficient," one scout said. "He's a bigger guy than people realize. He's got real good hockey sense. He reads plays well. He can make tough saves look easy because he's ahead of the game."
18. Jaroslav Halak, New York Islanders
2016: 2.93
2015: 2.79
2014: 3.21
Halak might be the prototypical "average starting goalie" in the NHL, but his play can be impacted by expectations.
"Halak is great in an underdog role," Hirsch said. "If you look at his history, he's great when there's no pressure on him. Did he have any pressure in the World Cup? In Montreal? When you hand Jaro the ball and the pressure is on him, he's a good goalie, but you don't get the same goalie you get see when he doesn't have any pressure on him. You get a guy who is hurt or very inconsistent."
19. Devan Dubnyk, Minnesota Wild
2016: 2.98
2015: 2.71
2014: N/A
One of the panelists said they'll be very interested to see how Dubnyk responds to two changes in Minnesota this season: the move away from a strong defensive coach, Mike Yeo, along with the pressure that's going to accompany a veteran group that is running out of time to win.
"Minnesota is one of those teams, it's time to win now," one scout said. "Dubnyk, I don't know. Are you going to get the great Dubnyk or not?"
Said another scout: "He's better than the average No. 1. Just barely."
Tier 4
20. Mike Smith, Arizona Coyotes
2016: 3.08
2015: 2.93
2014: 2.21
Having Smith as your starting goalie can be a roller coaster ride. There are glimpses of greatness, especially when it comes to handling the puck. But panelists were concerned about a mental makeup that can vary from game to game and even period to period.
"I'm not a believer," one GM said.
"He's a great athlete," a scout said. "He's better than your average No. 1, but you're not sure what you're getting from him on some nights."
21. Jake Allen, St. Louis Blues
2016: 3.10
2015: 2.93
2014: N/A
According to Hirsch, who was in St. Louis at the time, Allen is the reason the Blues traded Bishop. Internally, they projected Allen as the better starting goalie, and now becomes the season in which he needs to prove them right.
"He's talented, he plays the puck well, but this is where he needs to prove it. This is where it's going to be, 'What are you Jake?'" Hirsch said. "This is the do-or-die moment for that Bishop trade."
22. Petr Mrazek, Detroit Red Wings
2016: 3.10
2015: N/A
2014: N/A
Mrazek's 2015-16 season was tough to gauge. He was on the verge of entering the Vezina conversation, but struggled in the second half. In 33 games before the All-Star break, Mrazek had a .932 save percentage. In 21 games after the All-Star break, he had a .899 save percentage.
As is usually the case, the truth is somewhere in between.
"I'm not sure what we have there," the goalie coach said.
"I loved what I saw at times," one GM said. "He's really talented. Really quick. I don't think he has the best defense in front of him. What he did last year was pretty impressive, I just like to see these young guys like Talbot, Mrazek and Jones do it one more year."
23. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
2016: 3.11
2015: N/A
2014: N/A
The panel was intrigued by Hellebuyck's upside and agreed with the Jets' decision to move on from Ondrej Pavelec.
"He's ginormous," one assistant GM said of the 6-foot-4 Hellebuyck. "He's athletic. He's an athletic big goalie with good reflexes, good positioning and he's a focused guy."
"He's a hell of a talent. He needs more time," one scout said. "It would be great for him to split starts this year. I don't think you give him the reins just yet."
24. Steve Mason, Philadelphia Flyers
2016: 3.13
2015: 2.54
2014: 2.64
Despite his .922 save percentage in 173 games with the Flyers, panelists just aren't crazy about Mason.
"I can't warm up to him yet," one scout said. "If I'm going into a big game, I'm not sure how comfortable I am."
Another panelist said his team knows it can get under Mason's skin over the course of the game if they're persistent enough.
"He's way too inconsistent," another scout said. "When he's on, he's phenomenal. He'll have a 44-save shutout and then the next game let in five goals on 20 shots and three are soft."
25. Craig Anderson, Ottawa Senators
2016: 3.30
2015: 2.61
2014: 2.71
For a guy who has a .919 save percentage in 253 games with the Senators, there isn't a lot of love for Anderson.
"He never gets credit that he should," a scout said. "Every year I think he's going to take a downturn. He's there every year. The games he gets a million shots, he's incredible. When he doesn't get as many shots, he's not as good."
26. John Gibson, Anaheim Ducks
2016: 3.33
2015: N/A
2014: 2.85
There's a lot of doubt whether or not Gibson is the right guy to be the No. 1 in Anaheim. Some wouldn't be surprised if Jonathan Bernier sees more starts than expected.
"I'm not sold," one head coach said. "He has not shown me any signs he's better than a backup so far."
Said a GM: "I've never liked him. ... Everyone has him projected to take off and be a bona fide starter; I don't know if he's a starter yet."
That seemed to be the consensus.
"I see a few holes in his game that I don't know if he sees them as holes," a scout said. "I'm curious to see what his next level can be. Sometimes guys don't take care to fix the little things they see in their game."
27. Robin Lehner, Buffalo Sabres
2016: 3.36
2015: 3.11
2014: N/A
Nobody questions Lehner's talent, but there is some doubt over his mental makeup.
"He's a bit of a loose cannon," one panelist said. "That affects his play and affects his teammates. He's got a snap factor."
28. Ryan Miller, Vancouver Canucks
2016: 3.38
2015: 3.11
2014: 2.07
His .916 save percentage last season was right in line with his career average of .915, but as Miller ages and with the Canucks expected to be near the bottom of the standings, it leaves few of our panelists optimistic about his season.
"I thought he played pretty well last year," one GM said. "It was a hard team to play behind. His numbers were still pretty good. He's still got a bit of an edge there."
Tier 5
29. Cam Ward, Carolina Hurricanes
2016: 3.88
2015: 3.36
2014: 2.79
Ward was better during the second half of last season, with a .915 save percentage in the final 20 games of the season. Still, it's fair to wonder if the expected playoff push the Hurricanes are capable of making will be thwarted by goaltending again.
"Bill Peters is an incredibly great coach," one scout said. "I think he makes up for it defensively. He has his teams playing very well in front of the goalies."
30. Kari Lehtonen, Dallas Stars
2016: 3.95
2015: 3.07
2014: 2.0
In the three years of doing this project, nobody's star has fallen more than Lehtonen's. In 2014, his average rating put him at No. 9 in the NHL. Now he's last, although there's blame to go around.
"He's in an environment that doesn't make it easy for their goalies to play," the goalie coach said. "When everybody is shooting bullets at you, you don't like to leave your house. I don't think he's very comfortable."