The 2019-20 NHL season will be remembered for quite some time, thanks to a pause because of the coronavirus pandemic that kept players off the ice for months and ended seven teams' seasons. As we bear witness to the first 24-team postseason tournament, we continue to look ahead to what's next.
As each team is eliminated from postseason contention -- either as one of the seven teams that missed the 24-team tournament, by losing in the postseason or winning the Stanley Cup -- we'll take a look at its keys to the offseason, and a way-too-early prediction for what 2020-21 will hold.
Read through every team's profile, or skip ahead to your favorite team using the links below:
Jump to:
TB | DAL | NYI | VGS
PHI | VAN | COL | BOS
STL | MTL | CGY | WSH
ARI | CAR | CBJ | CHI
TOR | MIN | EDM | PIT
NSH | FLA | WPG | NYR
ANA | BUF | DET | LA
NJ | OTT | SJ
Note: Profiles for the Metro and Central division teams are by Emily Kaplan, and the Atlantic and Pacific division profiles are courtesy of Greg Wyshynski.
Stanley Cup Finalists
Tampa Bay Lightning: Keys to a Stanley Cup repeat
Why they won the Cup
The Lightning are Stanley Cup champions because they learned the right lessons from their playoff past.
For years, coach Jon Cooper has tried to get this Lightning team to play "the right way" in the playoffs. In 2019, they got their wake-up call: a first-round sweep at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets, after one of the greatest regular seasons in NHL history. The Lightning couldn't win with offensive artistry alone in the postseason. They needed to figure out how to defend at a championship level, as well as how to scratch and claw for critical goals.
That change in philosophy started with a change in personnel. Last summer, GM Julien BriseBois signed defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, who was bought out by the New York Rangers, and forward Patrick Maroon, who had just won the Stanley Cup with St. Louis. During the season, BriseBois traded first-round picks for forwards Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow, and added defenseman Zach Bogosian after the Buffalo Sabres waived him.
The impact of those players was immediately evident in the postseason, as was the change in attitude for the Lightning. They scored in a variety of ways. They were a better defensive team in the postseason than they were in the regular season, anchored by Norris Trophy-nominated defenseman Victor Hedman and Vezina Trophy-nominated goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Above all, they were efficient. They exacted their revenge on the Blue Jackets in five games, although one of those games went five overtimes; they eliminated the Boston Bruins in five games; they knocked out the New York Islanders in six games in the Eastern Conference finals; and then they dispatched the Dallas Stars in six games to win the Stanley Cup.
They only trailed in playoff series twice in this run, both times after Game 1 losses. They avoided Game 7s, where they had recently previously lost in the playoffs to the Pittsburgh Penguins (2016) and Washington Capitals (2018). They were confident, calculated and well-coached. They finally lived up to the hype.
Keys to the offseason
Make free-agent decisions on the defense corps. The Lightning have only three defensemen under contract for 2020-21: Victor Hedman (signed through 2024-25), Ryan McDonagh (2025-26) and Braydon Coburn (2020-21). Mikhail Sergachev, the team's 22-year-old offensive defenseman, is a restricted free agent, as is the steady Erik Cernak. Luke Schenn, Jan Rutta, Zach Bogosian and Kevin Shattenkirk are all unrestricted free agents. They have young Cal Foote waiting in the minors, but the Lightning could be in the market for another low-cost veteran option or two.
Deal with the flat cap. Filling out the blue line isn't going to be cheap. Anthony Cirelli, the team's brilliant 23-year-old center, is also a restricted free agent -- and due for a big raise. The Lightning have just over $5.3 million in space under the flat salary cap of $81.5 million for 2020-21. It's expected that they're going to have to sacrifice a veteran forward to clear out space. Candidates include Tyler Johnson ($5 million in average annual value, and a full no-trade clause) and Alex Killorn ($4.45 million AAV, with a 16-team no-trade clause).
Get Steven Stamkos healthy. Stamkos was on the sidelines for the vast majority of this playoff run for the Lightning, dealing with an undisclosed injury he suffered in training camp. He remains one of the NHL's most gifted players, with 66 points in 57 games. No matter when next season starts, the Lightning have to make sure their star center is healthy and ready for it.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The Lightning have the foundation for another championship team. Stamkos, Point and Cirelli are an incredible trio at center, with players like Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat flanking them. Then it's Hedman, McDonagh and Sergachev on defense, in front of Vasilevskiy.
The key to another Stanley Cup is how the roster will fill out around them, given the economics. But BriseBois has earned the benefit of the doubt that he can build in a thrifty fashion -- and build a champion.
Dallas Stars: Here's how they come back stronger
What went wrong
The Stars were one of the best stories of the 2020 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Though they entered the tournament as one of the Western Conference's top four teams, there were modest expectations for a team that hadn't advanced past the second round since 2008.
The Stars have had their fair share of drama over the past few seasons -- playoff heartbreak, coach firings and hirings, the infamous profane-laced rant by the team president in 2018 targeting the two highest-paid players -- and seemed to be stuck in neutral with their core. Instead, under interim coach Rick Bowness, the Stars improved in every series they played to reach the Stanley Cup Final. They proved they were adaptable, typically playing a stingy defensive game, but adjusting to open things up offensively in the second-round win against the Avalanche.
A few things went in Dallas' favor. Their move last summer to acquire battle-tested veterans -- specifically Joe Pavelski, who finished the summer with 13 goals -- paid off. Losing Ben Bishop to injury wasn't a major blow, as Anton Khudobin played admirably, proving once again he's one of the league's most valuable backups. And a trio of 23-and-under players proved the future is bright: Miro Heiskanen had a monster playoffs, while Denis Gurianov and Roope Hintz both flashed a ton of promise this season.
But Dallas couldn't find another level against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The top line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov became a lightning rod for criticism yet again, and they were split up as the Stars looked to rally late in the series. (Seguin had a particularly unproductive summer, scoring only two goals, but there is speculation he has been dealing with a wrist or hand injury). It's troublesome, considering the trio account for nearly a third of the team's salary cap. Bishop's injury loomed large, especially with the back-to-back set of games baked into the Stanley Cup Final schedule, forcing the Stars to start the 34-year-old Khudobin in both contests. And they simply took too many penalties against the Lightning. While Dallas seemed to have control over the early games in this series at 5-on-5, the penalty parade prevented them from really finding their groove and ultimately hoisting the Stanley Cup.
Keys to the offseason
Lock in the youngsters. The Stars have a trio of restricted free agents who have become important pieces to their forward corps: Gurianov, Hintz and Radek Faksa are all due for new contracts this offseason. It's nearly a lock that the Stars will keep all three around. Hintz battled injuries put still put up 19 goals in 60 games, while Gurianov (20 goals in 64 games) finally broke through after some up-and-down moments in the minors. Though bridge deals are likely for the 23-year-old Gurianov and Hintz, it might behoove management to get something done longer term with each, especially if there's faith that they truly are on the cusp of stardom. Everything the Stars do this summer will be done knowing that Heiskanen hits RFA status after next summer, and will be due for a megadeal.
Some veterans stay, some go. The Stars have a projected $19.46 million available in cap space, according to Cap Friendly, which is quite significant for a team contending for Stanley Cups. (It helps that Martin Hanzal's $4.75 million cap hit is finally coming off the books). Five veterans hit unrestricted free agency this summer: Khudobin, Mattias Janmark, Corey Perry, Roman Polak and Andrej Sekera.
Janmark has seen his production dip, scoring only six goals in each of the past two seasons after his 19 in 2017-18. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Stars part with the 27-year-old. The buy-low Perry experiment was a valiant one, and if he's willing to take another short, cheap deal, Dallas could keep him around. At 34, this might be it for Sekera, while Polak has already committed to playing in the Czech Extraliga next season. The only obvious keeper in this group is Khudobin, who proved his value with 26 regular-season starts, but especially with his work in the playoffs. Did he price himself out of the Stars' budget, though?
Taking stock of leadership. With the remaining cap space, the Stars will be in position to be a player on the free-agent market. They could go for a splash, as they have tried to do in the past few seasons, or take this as an opportunity to work in some of the organization's top prospects: forwards Ty Dellandrea and Jason Robertson, and 2019 first-round defenseman Thomas Harley. It all depends on who is calling the shots.
GM Jim Nill, who has been on the job since 2013, likely saved his job with this year's playoff run. But now comes a decision for Rick Bowness, who still has the interim tag after taking over for Jim Montgomery in the middle of this season.
The Stars are already on their fourth coach under Nill's watch, and want stability. Bowness, 65, is the oldest coach in the league. Before the Final, Nill essentially said the job is Bowness' if he wants it as he's earned it. But there are some lingering unknowns. Does Bowness even want the job, or does he want to walk away on his own terms? Also, will compensation be an issue? Bowness is going to want a fair deal, and it will be interesting to see how much owner Tom Gagliardi, who is in the hospitality business, is willing to commit financially.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
When the Stars are clicking at full capacity, this is a dangerous team that can go up against anyone. The issue is that their offense has a tendency to take lapses, and they became undisciplined in the Cup Final, leading to their loss. With a largely similar roster returning, the Stars should be quite competitive again next season -- but once again, will have something to prove.
Conference finalists
New York Islanders: Time to pay Mathew Barzal
What went wrong
The Islanders entered the Eastern Conference finals as underdogs, but they had a fighting chance. New York was the only team to emerge from the qualifying round, and it did so largely because of its signature defensive structure and goaltending depth, which limited teams to less than two goals per game. The Islanders' offense also came alive, scoring four or more goals in seven of their first 17 games in the bubble. Not bad for a team that ranked 22nd in the regular season, averaging just 2.78 goals a game.
But in the Eastern Conference finals, the Lightning showed why they are the deeper and more battle-tested team. Tampa Bay took advantage of fortuitous scheduling. The Lightning had four days off before Game 1; the Islanders played immediately after a travel day, which immediately followed an emotional Game 7 against the Flyers. The Lightning devoured New York 8-2 in that game, and even though the Isles were able to restore their defensive structure by Game 2, they were already in a hole. It didn't help that while the top line of Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle and Anders Lee played very well, they combined for only two goals through the six games of the series. New York had prime opportunities to strike -- 5-on-3s, long stretches where the Lightning were down two forwards, two games without Tampa Bay's super dominant Brayden Point -- and failed to capitalize. The Isles didn't run out of steam; they just ran into a steamboat coming at them with full force.
Now comes an offseason where expectations are high and finances are tight. It's clear that the combination of GM Lou Lamoriello and coach Barry Trotz have found a winning formula for this group; remember, this is also the team that built a franchise-record 17-game point streak early in the season. But keeping the band together, while still finding ways to improve, is going to be a challenge.
Keys to the offseason
Mathew Barzal's next contract. The top priority for Lamoriello this offseason is getting a new contract for Barzal, the 23-year-old future face of the franchise. Barzal is the best and most creative offensive talent on the roster, and they can't afford to let him walk, either this summer as a restricted free agent, or really any time in the future. We know what happened with John Tavares, and let's not forget the current captain, Anders Lee, briefly tested free agency last summer before the two sides ultimately worked out a deal.
As of April, Barzal said he hadn't had any meaningful contract talks with management yet. Though the landscape has changed finances for many teams -- and a contract like Mitch Marner's deal for six years, with $10.893 million in average annual value may seem unpalatable right now -- it's not wild to think Barzal's camp to look for $9 million in AAV or more. The Isles are certainly susceptible to another team offer-sheeting Barzal (Montreal showed it's possible, with its attempt at Carolina's Sebastian Aho last season). For the record, Lamoriello told the Islanders' website in March that the Isles would match any offer sheet thrown Barzal's way.
Navigate a salary-cap squeeze. The Isles are committed to roughly $73.4 million in cap space for next season, according to CapFriendly, which leaves just $8.1 million for Barzal's contract, plus new deals for Devon Toews and Ryan Pulock. Considering both Pulock and Toews have earned their keep on the blue line, the Islanders are going to need to do some finagling.
The salary cap staying flat is doing New York no favors. It's quite possible that the Islanders five unrestricted free agents -- Derick Brassard, Andy Greene, Thomas Greiss, Tom Kuhnhackl and Matt Martin -- all don't return. (Greiss is almost certainly gone with the Isles finally getting top goalie prospect Ilya Sorokin under contract.) Buyouts can limit some damage, and a player like Leo Komarov could be a victim of that here. But more will need to be done. The Isles are likely putting a few veterans on the trading block. Considering the Isles' depth on the blue line -- and Noah Dobson knocking on the door for a permanent spot -- Nick Leddy and Thomas Hickey could be on the move.
Don't sacrifice too many futures, if possible. Considering the Islanders' financial situation, Lamoriello may need to throw in prospects or draft picks as sweeteners to take some contracts off the books. New York has collected a terrific group of prospects, but the team is already without its first- and second-round picks in the 2020 draft, as well as their 2021 second-round pick. While this team is in win-now mode, Lamoriello won't want to leave his pipeline too empty.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The Islanders proved this summer they're ready to win now. This offseason is a pivotal one, and it's fair to wonder how the salary-cap squeeze could change the complexion of the roster next season. Nonetheless, as long as the defensive structure and key forwards remain, the Isles are ready to contend for the foreseeable future.
Vegas Golden Knights: Time to resolve the goalie drama
What went wrong
One of the eternal truths about the Stanley Cup playoffs is that hot goaltenders are the great equalizer.
The Golden Knights rolled through the quarterfinals against the Chicago Blackhawks, a series that went five games only because Chicago goalie Corey Crawford was able to steal one against a superior opponent. They went up 3-1 on the Vancouver Canucks ... and then a hot goalie, Thatcher Demko, replaced an "unfit to play" Jacob Markstrom and went on a three-game run of absolute dominance. Vancouver tied the series as Demko gave up one goal on 91 shots in the first two postseason starts of his career. The Knights finally overcame him in Game 7.
Then came the Dallas Stars and another backup goalie: Anton Khudobin, the "No. 1-B" to three-time Vezina Trophy finalist Ben Bishop, who was unfit to play. He had the best playoff series of his career, with a .952 save percentage through the first four games of the Western Conference finals. He was square to the puck, made athletic stops in tight, and the Knights just couldn't do enough to "take away his eyes" on shots, as Jonathan Marchessault put it.
But the difference between the performances of Demko and Khudobin was support. The Stars played great team defense in front of him, dropping the Knights' shot total average precipitously from previous rounds. Most of all, the Stars got great play from their stars: Jamie Benn, Joe Pavelski and Alexander Radulov made an impact in a way that the Knights' top players did not.
Vegas was a team with designs on winning the Stanley Cup, the team that made aggressive moves this season to that end: firing coach Gerard Gallant after a 24-19-6 start, and hiring former Sharks coach Peter DeBoer, the very coach that defeated them in Game 7 last postseason; and trading for Kings defenseman Alec Martinez and Blackhawks goalie Robin Lehner at the deadline.
The task for the Golden Knights' management and ownership is how to process this disappointment. Is it simply an unconscious goalie on the other side, continuing that long playoff tradition? Is there anything that one can properly judge given that the postseason was held in a neutral site bubble in the middle of the summer? Or is there something wrong under the hood of this flashy sports car of a franchise that we're not seeing?
Keys to the offseason
Resolve the goalie drama. On July 13, 2018, the Golden Knights signed "face of the franchise" Marc-Andre Fleury to a three-year, $21 million contract that runs through 2021-22. The first season of that contract saw Fleury struggle to a .905 save percentage and a quality starts ratio of .500. On Feb. 24, 2020, the Knights traded for Lehner, with GM Kelly McCrimmon saying at the time that the move was meant to offer support to Fleury rather than to supplant him.
But in the restarted season, Fleury was supplanted: Lehner was the starter, and apparently not just for the postseason. An NHL source told ESPN that there's a handshake agreement in place between pending-free agent Lehner and the Knights on an extension. Reports have said it could be a five-year deal. At 29 years old, he's a bit younger than Fleury (35). His performance in the postseason was outstanding.
What does this all mean for Fleury? He's been in this position before: The only reason he's a Golden Knight now is because the Pittsburgh Penguins decided to move forward with Matt Murray, a younger and cheaper model. Fleury has a limited no-trade clause. There are two questions to answer here. Do the Knights want to commit that much money to the goaltending position by keeping both? And does Fleury -- whose agent published an image featuring his client impaled with a sword featuring DeBoer's name -- want to stick around?
Reexamine the center spot. Paul Stastny is a 14-year veteran entering the final campaign of a contract that carries $6.5 million against the salary cap, and has limited trade protection. He's a gamer, doing a lot of little things to help the Knights in the playoffs and chipping in offensively, too. But he's not second-line center material for the regular-season grind, and the Knights' veteran wingers -- Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty -- were more effective with Chandler Stephenson or William Karlsson in the pivot.
The DNA of a Stanley Cup champion usually contains four building blocks: Two great centers, a foundational defenseman and a game-stealing goaltender. The Knights have three of the four in Karlsson, Shea Theodore and either Lehner or Fleury. Unless Stephenson has another gear or Cody Glass can be that guy, the Knights should be looking out for that missing piece -- and potentially using Stastny's cap space to help secure it.
Stay the course? The Golden Knights could essentially return the same team they had this season. Along with Lehner, defensemen Jon Merrill and Deryk Engelland and forward Tomas Nosek are unrestricted free agents. Nick Cousins and Stephenson are restricted free agents. CapFriendly has the Knights with $6.375 million open in cap space. After next season, only center Stastny and Martinez are hitting free agency. If they like this group, good news: They're locked in. If they don't like this group, even better news: It's a team filled with cost-effective contracts with terms that have limited trade protection or none at all. Give the expectations placed on the Knights, we imagine changes will be afoot.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
Owner Bill Foley's expectation is to win the Stanley Cup, as it has been since the Knights entered the league. The Knights are built to win one, with a deeply talented roster and with two of the best players in the NHL at their positions in winger Stone and defenseman Theodore. It certainly looked like they could win one, entering the Western Conference finals as the odds-on pick to capture the Stanley Cup. That they didn't win can be blamed on hot goalies or a Dallas team peaking or the unprecedented nature of the bubble playoffs; few teams missed their home-ice advantage more than the Golden Knights. But it's hard to imagine that with these expectations, there won't be changes for having fallen short.
Since entering the league in 2017-18, the Knights have been as aggressive as they come in making significant changes: They've traded for Stone, Pacioretty, Lehner and Martinez, signed Stastny, and fired Gallant. They're a great, deep team that has now made it at least to the Western Conference finals twice in three years of existence. They'll be a contender again next season. But it's going to be fascinating to see what sacrifices management will make to service their owner's expectation that even great isn't good enough.
Conference semifinalists
Philadelphia Flyers: Continue to build around young core
What went wrong
The Flyers had modest expectations in their first campaign with Alain Vigneault as head coach. But they overdelivered, especially from Jan. 8 to the pause, when they tied the Boston Bruins for the best record in the NHL. Philadelphia picked up right where it left off after the nearly five-month hiatus, running the table in this restart round-robin.
The team reaped the rewards after years of hoarding top prospects, a process initiated by former GM Ron Hextall. Carter Hart had officially arrived as the long-term answer in net. Philippe Myers, Ivan Provorov and Travis Sanheim (all age 24 or under) are a trio around whom most GMs would dream of building their defense. The Flyers' veteran forward core was bolstered by free-agent Kevin Hayes and another arriving prospect, Joel Farabee, and scored 3.29 goals per game, seventh-best in the league.
But the offense began to slump in the first-round series against the Montreal Canadiens, and it didn't get much better for the second-round series against the even stingier New York Islanders. Over a 12-game span, the team scored two or fewer goals eight times, including being shut out twice. The Flyers got outclassed especially in the third period, and while they did flex improved depth this season, the big-name players remained quiet. Travis Konecny and Jakub Voracek went without a goal in the second round.
Keys to the offseason
The return of Nolan Patrick and a full season of Oskar Lindblom? The Flyers achieved much of their success this season playing without two bright young stars. Patrick, the No. 2 overall pick of the 2017 draft, has been dealing with a migraine disorder and hasn't played a game since April 2019. Lindblom, 23, scored 11 goals in his first 30 games this season but was diagnosed with Ewing's sarcoma in December. There is reason for optimism surrounding Lindblom, who completed treatments in July, traveled with the team to the Toronto bubble, and even played in two games at the end of the Isles series. The Flyers showed faith in Lindblom with a three-year, $9 million extension before the playoffs began.
Patrick's situation is murkier. He had wanted to play before this season was over, but never got healthy enough. The Flyers managed without Patrick -- and brought in reinforcements to help with center depth -- and he's up for a new contract as a restricted free agent this summer.
Decisions on the other RFAs. Patrick isn't the only RFA who GM Chuck Fletcher must negotiate with this summer. With just under $9 million in projected cap space, according to CapFriendly, the Flyers also need to shell out new contracts for a pair of defensemen (Robert Hagg and Myers, due for a big raise from the $678,889 he is making this season). Forward Nicolas Aube-Kubel is another RFA, and an interesting case. It appeared the Flyers were ready to move on from the 24-year-old, and put him on waivers last September, but he began to flash his promise again this summer.
If the Flyers are really concerned about the cap, they could try to move James van Riemsdyk ($7 million cap hit through 2022-23), who fell out of favor in this summer's tournament, but there's probably not much of a market for him and it would be a complete sell-low move.
Veteran depth. While the young players garnered a ton of attention for the Flyers this season, their veteran depth cannot be understated. Fletcher worked trades to round out the roster. Derek Grant and Nate Thompson were both brought in to shore up the center depth, and Justin Braun manned a bottom pairing. Meanwhile, Brian Elliott, a journeyman who has been with the team since 2017-18, was a capable, if unexciting, backup to Hart. All four players become unrestricted free agents this summer, as does bottom-six winger Tyler Pitlick.
A backup goalie is a necessary expenditure and the Flyers can budget around $2 million for Elliott (or someone else). After that, there might not be much money left to spread around for other veterans -- even if they are good fits. This is what GMs have been lamenting with the flat salary cap for the next few years; it's the middle class that's going to take the biggest hit.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
This past season was a pleasant surprise for the Flyers, and there's no reason to expect a regression in 2020-21. While Philly's makeup might change a bit -- saying goodbye to a few veteran plugs -- the young stars are only improving, and they could get a boost from two of their own: Lindblom and Patrick.
Vancouver Canucks: A contender has arrived ahead of schedule
What went wrong
Doom and gloom usually come with the territory when discussing the Canucks' postseason results, but let's turn that frown upside down for a moment.
The Canucks went from seventh in the Western Conference in points percentage at the time of the pause all the way to the conference semifinal in the Edmonton bubble. They ousted a tough defensive team in the Minnesota Wild in the qualification round, winning in four games. They knocked out the defending Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues, withstanding a two-game rally where it looked like Ryan O'Reilly was going to eliminate Vancouver on his own. Alas, the Vegas Golden Knights proved too efficient and too deep to handle. Vegas coach Peter DeBoer spoke the truth: "We have more depth than them throughout our lineup. I knew eventually that would pay off." The fact that it took until Game 7 for that to happen is a credit to the determination of the Canucks.
Losing in the playoffs is never a happy experience, but Canucks fans would be wise to keep some perspective. The core of this team had little to no postseason experience. This was their Stanley Cup bat mitzvah. They are now a contender ... if they tinker correctly in the next few months.
Keys to the offseason
Figure out what to do with Jacob Markstrom. The 30-year-old goaltender had the best season of his career -- 23-16-4, .918 save percentage in 43 starts -- before dominating in the first playoff action of his career. The Canucks are an improved defensive team, but they were still reliant on Markstrom to bail them out and clean up messes during the season. He had a .786 quality starts percentage in the postseason before the grind caught up with him in the conference semifinals.
Markstrom is an unrestricted free agent, entering a crowded marketplace that includes names like Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford. That could work in Vancouver's favor in attempting to keep him. The question is whether it's worth attempting to keep him. How does the team take into account his best work coming in a contract year? How does the team view a new deal for Markstrom in light of 24-year-old Thatcher Demko, whose postseason work showed such poise and promise? Perhaps most of all: Do the economics in keeping him for anything other than a cap-friendly deal make sense when Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes are both due for second contracts after next season?
Decide on the other free agents. Defenseman Chris Tanev is an unrestricted free agent, and boy has the 30-year-old's stock climbed this season. He played over 700 minutes with rookie Quinn Hughes, and contributed mightily to the latter's Calder Trophy-nominated campaign. There's no doubt that other teams with talented young defensemen took notice. But both Tanev and GM Jim Benning have expressed a desire to continue their relationship.
Forward Tyler Toffoli has made a strong impression on the Canucks during his rental, fitting snugly into their top six. Forwards Jake Virtanen and Adam Gaudette, along with defenseman Troy Stecher, are among the restricted free agents. Vancouver has 16 players under contract for next season with just over $17 million in space under the flat $81.5 million cap, and over $4 million of that cap commitment is Ryan Spooner's buyout ($1,033,333) and Roberto Luongo's cap recapture penalty ($3,035,212). Perhaps the most important salary cap concern for Jim Benning: Elias Pettersson and Hughes are both due new deals after next season.
Augment the core. With Pettersson, Hughes, Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser, the Canucks have a core of players that are the envy of most teams in the league, and position them to contend for years to come -- as long as they have the right supporting cast. Benning has had his hits (J.T. Miller, Tanner Pearson), his misses (Micheal Ferland) and his head-scratchers (Tyler Myers).
Getting some players with playoff experience and Cup rings in the room has benefitted the young core. Figuring out what additional pieces can get the Canucks over the top -- and under the cap -- is going to be the real challenge for Benning. And by that we mean: Would anyone that isn't on his 15-team no-trade list like two more years of a slightly used Loui Eriksson?
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
Depending on what the Canucks do in free agency, the expectation is for Vancouver to take the next step after taking a big leap. Part of that is having players like Pettersson and Hughes continue to mature into superstars. But a lot of that is understanding the lessons about consistency, defensive commitment and being opportunistic that the postseason has taught them.
Having a solid foundation is a starting point. If you fail to build on it correctly, you become the Winnipeg Jets, with one conference final appearance and nary a series win otherwise. Build on it correctly, and you become a Stanley Cup champion.
Colorado Avalanche: Swing big for Taylor Hall or Alex Pietrangelo?
What went wrong
The Avalanche entered this summer's tournament as a trendy Stanley Cup pick. GM Joe Sakic's slow burn of building a championship team finally looked like it was finally ready to catch fire. Nathan MacKinnon carried the load offensively yet again (scoring 93 points, 43 more than any other teammates), but the burden was only intensified because the Avalanche endured tough injury luck. Unlike previous seasons, Colorado finally boasted decent forward depth, bolstered by the Nazem Kadri trade. Meanwhile the defense had a decent mix of veterans and ascending stars, headlined by Cale Makar.
After steamrolling into the conference semifinals, they fell behind 3-1 to the Dallas Stars. After winning Games 5 and 6 -- with third-string goaltender Michael Hutchinson, no less -- they fell just short, losing an overtime Game 7. The story is over for 2020, but this team isn't going anywhere.
Keys to the offseason
Make decisions on the restricted free agents. According to CapFriendly, the Avalanche have roughly $22 million in cap space for next season. The first place that Sakic will look to spend is on six RFAs. Andre Burakovsky, Ryan Graves, Tyson Jost, Vladislav Kamenev, Valeri Nichushkin, and Nikita Zadorov are all due for new contracts. Burakovsky (third on the team, with 45 points) and Graves (averaging 18:57 per game in his first season as a regular) are both coming off breakout seasons and could be due for longer-term commitments. Jost, the No. 10 overall pick from 2016, hasn't lived up to expectations yet, though the Avs may not be ready to cut ties yet considering they can keep him on the cheap (he also doesn't have arbitration rights). It will be interesting to see the contract awarded to Zadorov, a bruising 6-foot-5 defenseman who had a tendency for being inconsistent, including this postseason.
Make decisions on the unrestricted free agents. Sakic's next set of decisions will involve sorting through some UFAs: Mark Barberio, Kevin Connauton, Michael Hutchinson, Vladislav Namestnikov, Matt Nieto and Colin Wilson. Barberio and Connauton are both depth defensemen that could stay on budget-friendly deals. Nieto is a decent role player and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him stick around. Hutchinson is a veteran backup option, but perhaps the Avalanche want to further upgrade the position? (More than likely, they'll stand pat with Grubauer and Pavel Francouz, both of whom are under contract for next season). Namestnikov is a player that has worked in this lineup, but might be too pricey for Sakic's taste.
Make a splash move? Sakic has a rare luxury in today's NHL: His team is ready to contend for championships now, but it also has a decent chunk of cap space. (Another friendly reminder that MacKinnon has the most team-friendly contract in the league, at $6.3 million a year through 2022-23). Is it time for Colorado to make a big splash that may put them over the edge? The Avalanche have kicked the tires on Taylor Hall before, and it's fair to assume they'll revisit the winger as an UFA this summer. If Sakic thinks the defense in the Dallas series was emblematic of a larger issue, he could swing for Alex Pietrangelo (though it would be a hefty price). Though Colorado is in decent cap shape now, management is conscious of a future crunch, especially with Makar and captain Gabriel Landeskog due for new contracts next summer.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
Though the Avalanche went out with a whimper in these playoffs, there aren't systemic issues with the roster. The Cup window is wide open for this team, and Colorado should be a top contender for the foreseeable future.
Boston Bruins: Stay the course, but tinker
What went wrong
The Bruins were a fascinating team to watch in the Toronto bubble. They treated the round-robin like an exhibition tuneup, finishing fourth. They drew the Carolina Hurricanes and defeated them for the second straight postseason, a victory hastened by the Canes' inability to overcome a Game 3 injury to leading goal scorer Andrei Svechnikov. Boston looked very much like the team that rolled to the Stanley Cup Final last postseason.
It was during that series that starting goaltender Tuukka Rask announced he was opting out of the Stanley Cup playoffs, saying "there are things more important than hockey in my life, and that is being with my family." Jaroslav Halak, a fine backup and/or "No. 1-B" goalie, was thrust into becoming the main starter.
The Bruins then drew the Tampa Bay Lightning in the conference semifinals, and the results were similar to their matchup in the 2018 postseason: The Bolts were the better team at even strength, deployed their best defensive stoppers against the Bruins' top offensive players and outlasted them with even better depth than they had two years ago.
Thus ended the playoff journey for the league's best regular-season team. So what comes next?
Keys to the offseason
Decide whether you want to stay in the Torey Krug business. There are few commodities more coveted on the unrestricted-free-agent market than a puck-moving defenseman in his prime who can quarterback a power play. At 29 years old, that's Torey Krug, as his contract expires this offseason. There's been a mutual declaration of good intentions by Krug and Bruins GM Don Sweeney, each saying they'd like the relationship to continue. Thanks to some cap-friendly contracts from their high-end players, that's financially feasible for Boston. But Krug is also expected to generate some big offers if he tests the market; many have already fantasy-casted the Livonia, Michigan, native to the cap-space-rich Detroit Red Wings, for example.
Stay the course, but tinker. The Bruins were the best team in the NHL when the regular season was put on hold for four months because of COVID-19. They won their quarterfinal series and just happened to run into a Lightning team that had some wind in its sails from a gutsy first-round win over last season's tormentors, the Columbus Blue Jackets. Reading too much into the results of "bubble hockey" can be at one's own peril. Taking another crack at it with the aging core next season -- Patrice Bergeron (35), David Krejci (34), Brad Marchand (32) and Zdeno Chara (43, assuming he's back) -- is a given, based on that success.
But there's always room for improvement, and some of Sweeney's acquisitions this season didn't necessarily pay off. Ondrej Kase went 10 games without a goal in the playoffs. Nick Ritchie was reviled by Bruins fans. Even with the flat cap, the Bruins will have over $15 million in space with which to play. Some upgrades in speed and toughness would be paramount. Our favorite Bruins pipe dream? That Taylor Hall decides to take a page out of the NBA and chases a Cup for one season in Boston, serving as the talented left wing Sweeney has coveted in his lineup for years.
Make sure all is well with Rask. From president Cam Neely down to their fourth-liners, the Bruins have been adamant about supporting Rask in his decision to opt out of the bubble with family concerns. "Listen, we've said it before: We support Tuukka's decision 100%. But then as we get back to work, of course it's going to affect us," said coach Bruce Cassidy this week. Rask, 33, has one year left on this deal at $7 million against the salary cap. First and foremost is the health and safety of his family. Then comes his status for next season; while there's been no indication he won't return, we also don't yet know when and where next season will take place. After that, the Bruins will have to be sure that his decision has been received as well internally as it has been portrayed publicly, which one hopes to be the case.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The Bruins are racing against the clock to win a Stanley Cup with this group. The good news is that Sweeney and the veteran players have conspired to give the Bruins the kind of salary-cap room few teams as successful as they are have under the flat cap. Again, this team was a regular-season juggernaut, and the only team to cross the 100-point threshold before the pause. The "Perfection Line" remains dominant, as David Pastrnak had a 48-goal season that was just shy of a Hart Trophy nomination. Cassidy has matured into one of the NHL's best coaches.
Realistically, this is a playoff team again with designs on the Stanley Cup. Whether the Bruins can surge ahead and win another one is dependent on the goaltending, how the Krug matter is resolved and some tweaks to the team's depth. But we're confident this isn't going to be a team that overreacts to how its postseason bubble popped.
First round and out
St. Louis Blues: Pondering Alex Pietrangelo's future
What went wrong
En route to winning the Stanley Cup last year, the Blues went 8-2 in the playoffs after a loss. Though they dug out of the 0-2 hole against the Vancouver Canucks in the first round to tie the series, they largely missed that resilience in this summer's tournament. St. Louis' top goal-scoring threat, Vladimir Tarasenko, had to leave the bubble to reevaluate his shoulder injury; although, that can't be seen as much of an excuse, since they played without him for nearly the entire season and still finished atop the Central Division.
The Blues "fell asleep" with a 3-1 lead in Game 5 (in Brayden Schenn's words), and their defensive structure fell apart. St. Louis allowed 3.56 goals per game this postseason, not what you'd expect from a team that finished in the top five (2.68 goals allowed per game) in the regular season. It didn't help that Jordan Binnington, last year's playoff star, wasn't the best version of himself. Jake Allen filled in admirably, but this was a larger defensive issue. The Canucks were quicker, got to more loose pucks and generally looked hungrier throughout the series. In all, the Blues were a team that lacked urgency and looked as if maybe they didn't really want to be in the bubble for long.
Keys to the offseason
Alex Pietrangelo's future. The 30-year-old captain is a do-it-all defenseman and wants to stay in St. Louis. But management has yet to offer a long-term extension palatable to Pietrangelo -- and the Blues might be priced out. The comparable for Pietrangelo is Nashville's captain Roman Josi, who is the same age. In October, the Predators locked Josi in with an eight-year deal worth just north of $9 million in average annual value, making him the third-highest-paid defenseman in the NHL. It will be a tight fit for the cap-strapped Blues, who might need to move contracts to make it work.
Of course, the cap staying flat also might affect how much other teams are willing to pay for Pietrangelo. A compromise between the Blues and Pietrangelo's camp is the most likely outcome. Either way, Pietrangelo is the biggest unknown, and what happens with him dictates all other moves for GM Doug Armstrong this offseason.
Any veterans on the move? If the Blues are looking to recalibrate their salary structure, they could look to move some veterans. Allen is under contract through 2020-21. Allen's stock has never been higher; he finished the regular season with a 2.15 goals-against average and .927 save percentage, which was fourth highest among goalies with at least 24 appearances, and came in to relieve a struggling Binnington in the playoffs. St. Louis has 25-year-old prospect Ville Husso waiting in the wings, but trading Allen would weaken its group.
The Blues could look to move defenseman Carl Gunnarsson or forward Alexander Steen, but the returns might not be worth it. A splashier move would be to trade Tyler Bozak or Jaden Schwartz, but it's unclear whether Armstrong wants to do something that dramatic.
Is Scott Perunovich ready to jump in? The Hobey Baker winner from Minnesota-Duluth signed a two-year, entry-level contract that kicks in 2020-21. A second-round draft pick in 2018, Perunovich could be a steal for the Blues. The big question here is: Can he make an immediate NHL impact? At 5-foot-9, 175 pounds, he represents a new wave of NHL defenders who skate well and are offensive-minded, although he might not have as high a ceiling as Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar. The Blues don't have much defensive depth in their prospect system but are set at the NHL level (restricted free agent Vince Dunn should get a new contract). Pietrangelo departing could open up a spot, though a strong camp could force Perunovich into the rotation regardless.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
For some teams, there might be long-lasting effects from performance in this summer's unusual tournament. For others, this will be seen as a blip in the long-term plan. The Blues are in the latter group. They are a well-built veteran group. They should have as good a shot as anyone to win it all in 2021.
Montreal Canadiens: Time to turn it over to the kids?
What went wrong
The Canadiens weren't even supposed to be here. They were the 24th team in the 24-team restart, a team that seemed much more suited for the draft lottery than the qualification round. They were seeded 12th in the East, matched up against the mighty Pittsburgh Penguins. Sweeps were predicted ... and then Carey Price became vintage Carey Price and proved impenetrable to the Penguins. The Canadiens eliminated Sidney Crosby & Co. in four games to advance to the quarterfinals and out of the draft lottery.
Then came the Philadelphia Flyers and ... out went the Canadiens. It was a series thrown into chaos when Montreal coach Claude Julien was hospitalized because of chest pains after Game 1. A stent was put in a coronary artery, and Julien left the bubble to recover at home. With interim coach Kirk Muller behind the bench, the Canadiens rolled to a shocking 5-0 win against Philly in Game 2, but then didn't score a goal for the next two games against goalie Carter Hart. A wild Game 5 included games misconducts, a broken jaw for Brendan Gallagher, and many goals; the Habs came out on top, but ultimately the Flyers were too much.
It was a memorable appearance. Whether it ends up being counterproductive ... well, no one knows if their ball was going to be drawn in NHL draft lottery 2.0 anyway.
Keys to the offseason
Reevaluate the core forwards. Five of the six highest-paid forwards on the Canadiens are Jonathan Drouin ($5.5 million against the cap, 25 years old), Tomas Tatar ($4.8 million, 29), Gallagher ($3.75 million, 28), Max Domi ($3.15 million, 25) and Phillip Danault ($3.83 million, 27). Through eight postseason games, they combined for one goal: Drouin scored in Game 3 against the Penguins. Imagine what the Canadiens could have accomplished with a locked-in Price and a little more offense from this group.
GM Marc Bergevin has been inconsistent on whether moving veterans for young prospects or picks is his move going forward. Danault isn't going anywhere. Drouin is signed through 2023. Gallagher and Tatar are both unrestricted free agents after next season, and Domi is a restricted free agent after this season. Do the Canadiens jettison any of these players, considering that none of them have trade protection and because youngsters Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi have made the case for expanded roles?
Get some size on the wing. It has been about 10 years since Montreal had this kind of quality depth at center, with Suzuki, Kotkaniemi and Danault. That's not the issue, for once. Here's an issue: size. The Canadiens were tied for the shortest NHL team (72.3 inches on average) and were the 21st heaviest (197-pound average) at the start of last season, which was dragged up by Ben Chiarot and Shea Weber. This isn't a call for the Canadiens to populate their lineup with fourth-line tough guys or anything. But it's fair to ask if a playoff contender needs to muscle up a bit on the wings. Heck, even top prospect Cole Caufield is only 5-foot-7.
Figure out the left side of the defense. The Canadiens rolled out Chiarot-Weber, Brett Kulak-Jeff Petry, and Xavier Ouellet-Victor Mete, the latter two of whom are both restricted free agents. Weber and Petry are rocks on the right side. Chariot is a solid on the left side. Young Alexander Romanov will help eventually on the left side, but the Habs could go shopping here.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The Canadiens' trajectory is tough to predict. There are some outstanding young players, a middle class that disappeared in the postseason, and then Price and Weber, who are 33 and 35 respectively, and were the team's best players in therestart. Montreal regressed in the standings this season, and yet seemed to progress in the postseason.
As usual, their progression next season and beyond is tied to what Bergevin does to reshape this roster a bit, and if Julien -- one of the best coaches in the game -- returns to the bench. That's the short-term outlook.
Long term, we already know what we're in for: decades of Canadiens fans lamenting the fact that they gave up a lottery ticket for Quebec native Alexis Lafrenière in exchange for a loss in the first round. Sacre bleu!
Calgary Flames: Johnny Hockey on the move?
What went wrong
The Flames got a little lucky in the qualification round of the 24-team NHL postseason tournament, as the Winnipeg Jets played most of the five-game series without Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine. Still, the Flames had to solve the regular season's best goalie in Connor Hellebuyck, which they did in taking the series in four games. The Flames averaged four goals per game against the Jets.
But against the Dallas Stars in the quarterfinals, it was Calgary that suffered the early-series injury setback: Matthew Tkachuk, the team's leading scorer and an elite pest, was hit simultaneously by Jamie Benn and Jamie Oleksiak in Game 2. The Flames won Game 3 without him but badly missed his physical presence and clutch scoring in consecutive losses that swung the series, especially with the ineffective play from top offensive stars such as Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau. Then Game 6 happened: The Flames built a 3-0 lead just 6 minutes and 34 seconds into the game, and before the Stars even recorded a shot on goal. Then Dallas rallied with seven straight goals, sending Calgary home and creating a ton of questions about what the Flames should do next.
Keys to the offseason
The future of Johnny Gaudreau. His performance after the All-Star break helped make it look respectful, but Gaudreau had his lowest offensive output (0.83 points per game in 70 games) since his rookie campaign. That it followed his best season in the NHL, with 99 points in 82 games, only underscored that. He has two more years on his contract, at a team-friendly $6.75 million against the salary cap, with no trade protection. There has been speculation all season about the possibility of the Flames moving the 26-year-old left wing, including sending the New Jersey native to teams on the East Coast. There has also been a pet theory kicked around hockey circles that the Flames could move Gaudreau and sign free-agent Taylor Hall, who is 2 years older and a Calgary native. Could Gaudreau end up on the trading block and not have it actually be a bathroom break this time?
The coaching situation must be resolved. Geoff Ward took over the team on an interim basis in November 2019 following the resignation of Bill Peters, who was accused by former players of physical abuse and using racial epithets in previous jobs. Ward went 24-15-3 in the regular season, and by points percentage (.564), the Flames were a playoff team when the season was paused.
In Ward's favor: a good regular-season showing and advancing out of the qualification round, albeit over a banged-up Winnipeg squad. Not in Ward's favor: the robust free-agent pool of coaches available this offseason, including Bruce Boudreau, Gerard Gallant, Peter Laviolette and Mike Babcock. And of course, a very bad final taste in everyone's mouth in the aftermath of Game 6.
Defensive personnel changes on the way? It's easier to list the players who are under contract next season for the Flames defensively: Defensemen Mark Giordano, Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson and goalie David Rittich. Among the unrestricted free agents on the back end for Calgary: T.J. Brodie, Travis Hamonic, Derek Forbort, Erik Gustafsson, Michael Stone and goalie Cam Talbot. Oliver Kylington is a restricted free agent. The Flames have a blue-chip defensive prospect in 21-year-old Juuso Valimaki, who played 24 games in 2018-19 before a torn ACL put him on the shelf this season. It'll be interesting to see how the Flames configure the rest of the blue line. As for Talbot, his regular season was solid. His postseason ending was rough, but teammates like Giordano defended him as their best player of the postseason. He could return next season, but there will be other goaltending options available.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The Flames have some things to build around. Defenseman Mark Giordano lost something in his fastball but is still effective. The line of Andrew Mangiapane, Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund is one of the most effective in the league. One assumes that Monahan and Gaudreau will bounce back. It's a team good enough to hunt for a playoff spot in a very uneven Pacific Division ... but is this the team that'll return next season, give the staggering embarrassment of their exit? Will GM Brad Treliving cut into the core? It'll be a fascinating offseason.
Washington Capitals: Could a new coach take over?
What went wrong
The Capitals ran into their old friend Barry Trotz, and even if they're familiar with his patented defensive structure, it didn't mean they could solve it. The Capitals typically have a highly effective offense -- they were averaging 3.42 goals per game at the pause, second-most in the league -- and even though they were getting chances against the New York Islanders, they simply didn't get enough pucks past Semyon Varlamov, scoring only eight goals through five games. Depth scoring was an issue, as Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and T.J. Oshie were the only Washington players to score goals.
The Caps were without Nicklas Backstrom for most of the series, and to be honest, they looked off for their entire stay in the Toronto bubble. It wasn't just the Islanders' defense that gave Washington fits. The Isles looked competent on offense (and they're typically a low-scoring team) and the Caps often hung Braden Holtby out to dry. Washington started games strong, but it often unraveled in the third period. It will surely lead to questions on their motivation level and whether Todd Reirden is the right man to coach this team.
Keys to the offseason
Goodbye Holtby? It's been a lingering question all season long, and finally it will come to a head this offseason. Holtby has manned Washington's net for most of this decade, and he led the franchise to its first Stanley Cup in 2018. But he becomes an unrestricted free agent this offseason, and the team did not engage in contract talks during the season. It is believed that the Capitals do not want to commit to Holtby long term, especially with heir apparent Ilya Samsonov ready to step in at a much cheaper price, considering he's on his entry-level contract making $925,000 per season. Perhaps there is a change of heart after this pandemic-interrupted season, but most likely not. The 30-year-old had one of his worst statistical campaigns, and an early playoff exit didn't help. You're probably going to see him in a different uniform next season.
Blue-line fixes. The Capitals' defense wasn't at its best for most the season, despite having a Norris Trophy candidate manning the No. 1 role (let's be honest, John Carlson is fantastic, but mostly earned the nod for his eye-popping offensive numbers). Reirden played with pairings to find chemistry, but not many of them stuck. The trade deadline acquisition of Brenden Dillon was strong, and there seems to be mutual interest for Dillon to stick around; he's a pending UFA and made $1.635 million last season, but he is due for a raise. As usual, the Caps don't have a ton of cap space to work with. Radko Gudas, another UFA, could be a cap casualty.
Is Todd Reirden the right man for the job? This is the big-money question that GM Brian MacLellan and owner Ted Leonsis will be asking. Reirden took over for Trotz and led the team to 104 points in 2018-19, his first season as an NHL head coach, which is just one fewer than Trotz's team that won the Cup. The team then suffered a first-round collapse against Carolina. Reirden led the team to more regular-season success in 2019-20, but another early playoff exit means we might be seeing a trend. When Reirden was hired, he was touted for his X's and O's as well as work with player development, though both areas seemed to have stalled.
Reirden may get a pass because it was such a strange season; the Caps had to come back from a nearly five-month layoff and were mostly without Backstrom in the loss to the Isles. It's also unclear how much ownership is willing to spend on coaching during this economic uncertainty. But there definitely will be an offseason audit.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The Capitals will likely begin a new era with Samsonov in net, but they return largely the same roster. There's no reason to believe that Ovechkin & Co. can't find great success in the regular season again, but disappointing playoff exits have once more become a trend.
Arizona Coyotes: Taylor Hall decision looms large
What went wrong
The Coyotes went 33-29-8 in the regular season, but their .529 points percentage had them outside the playoffs when the NHL paused for the COVID-19 pandemic. But they were dragged into the postseason through the 24-team expansion of the tournament and pulled off an impressive upset in the qualification round as a No. 11 seed, eliminating the No. 6-seeded Nashville Predators in four games. The catalyst for it: Goalie Darcy Kuemper, who made 49 saves in the clincher.
Kuemper was the star again in the next round against the Colorado Avalanche, including a 49-save performance to win Game 3. But the wheels came off in Game 4, as the Avalanche administered an epic 7-1 drubbing. "It was just a total debacle," coach Rick Tocchet said. The Coyotes never recovered.
But that wasn't the only debacle Arizona had to play through. John Chayka, their general manager and president of hockey operations, resigned on July 24 after a conflict with Coyotes ownership about leaving for a new managerial job with the New Jersey Devils' ownership group. That was three days before the players left for the Edmonton bubble.
"We had a discussion [about it]. We had to put it behind us. None of the guys in the room or the coaches and control what happens behind the scenes," said veteran center Brad Richardson after winning the qualification round. "We've had no lack of controversy and things going on, but all the guys did a great job of honing in. We felt like we had the team to do it."
But do they have the team to take the next step?
Keys to the offseason
Will Taylor Hall re-sign? Five months ago, Taylor Hall returning to the Coyotes on a contract extension was an uncertainty. The pending free agent was acquired in December from the Devils. He made it clear he was looking for a long-term deal in his first foray into unrestricted free agency. As one of the best left wings in the NHL -- and MVP in 2017-18 -- he wouldn't have a shortage of suitors.
Then the world changed. The games stopped. The furloughs and layoffs started. The new collective bargaining agreement was cemented as a safety net for the COVID-19 fallout, with a flat salary cap next season and potentially beyond. The economics, both in cash flow and cap constraints, had been recalculated in the NHL.
Five months later and, well, his status is still an uncertainty. Hall met with Coyotes team owner Alex Meruelo, his son Alex Jr. and new Coyotes CEO Xavier Gutierrez to re-engage in contract discussions before the season restart. But Arizona has just $1.51 million under the cap for next season. Obviously, if Hall decides a long-term deal in the desert is to his liking, they can move money around to make it happen. But moves would have to be made.
There's no telling what the market is now for Hall. We know one team -- the Coyotes -- would like to hang onto him. Who else wants him? Where does he want to go? (Here's a dark horse: What about the "in need of a shakeup" Predators, and a reunion with Hall's coach with the Devils, John Hynes?)
Who's the boss? After Chayka left Arizona, former Coyotes forward Steve Sullivan was promoted from assistant GM to the main gig on an interim basis. He has been a member of the hockey operations department since 2014-15 and worked closely with Chayka. Whether that's a net positive or negative, only Meruelo knows. What's undeniable is that the Coyotes have made the playoffs once since 2012, and they were only a postseason team this summer because of the playoff expansion. This is an opportunity for Meruelo and Gutierrez to make their "change the culture" move for a general manager with an established pedigree, hence those Peter Chiarelli rumors.
But when it comes to "the boss," there might be an even higher calling for the Coyotes: Chayka was also president of hockey operations. There has been speculation that Arizona could split up those jobs and hire another individual to lead the hockey ops side. Among the names being bandied about: Franchise legend Shane Doan, currently working in the NHL hockey operations department; and Sean Burke, the former goalie and assistant GM of the Coyotes who has also served as the GM of Team Canada.
Does the system work? Defense will only get you so far in today's NHL. You have to be able to possess the puck and put goals on the board, too. With incredible goaltending and strong defense, the Coyotes were tied for third best in the NHL at 2.61 goals-against per game. But they were 23rd in goals per game (2.71) and 24th in team shooting percentage (8.6), an inexplicable hallmark of Tocchet's time in Arizona. Their goal production in the postseason was a mirage: Through seven games, the Coyotes were last in the postseason in Corsi for percentage (41.43%) and 20th in the postseason in expected goals per 60 minutes (1.73).
There are a lot of things the Coyotes need to be a Stanley Cup contender. Deciding whether they want to continue to play to the margins is one of them.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The playoff bubble. The Coyotes' goaltending will keep them competitive, and the offense will get a boost if Hall comes back. (A bit more offense from a healthy Phil Kessel would be nice as well, as his first season in Arizona was a disappointment.) But as Chayka leaves and someone else takes over, the real question for the Coyotes: Is the roster he constructed and spent to the cap to maintain a good enough one to win? Or does the next GM get the scalpel out?
OK, actually, the real question for the Coyotes, as always: Where's that new arena?
Carolina Hurricanes: Stay the course!
What went wrong
The Hurricanes were looking like a wagon in their qualification-round sweep over the New York Rangers, a team against whom they'd struggled recently. The first-line duo of Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov looked unstoppable (combining for 13 points in three games), the defense was among the deepest in the tournament (it played without Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce and still functioned well) and the goaltending tandem of Petr Mrazek and James Reimer held up (despite being a question mark heading into the postseason).
The Canes looked poised for a slugfest with the Boston Bruins in the first round. If not for one brief lapse in identity in the span of 6:51 in Game 4 to erase a three-goal deficit -- Boston scored four times in the third period -- it probably would have been. "I wanted to make people that support this organization proud of how we play," coach Rod Brind'Amour said. "I think we've done that for most of the time that I've been here. [In Game 4] we didn't. That's the most disturbing thing for me."
It also didn't help that Svechnikov was injured in the playoffs for the second straight year, this time after an awkward tangle with Zdeno Chara. The Canes remain a young, possession-controlling team that's trending upward. And if not for one dud of a third period, they had a legitimate chance to go all the way.
Keys to the offseason
Some free agents stay, some go. The Hurricanes enter the offseason with $9.15 million in projected cap space, according to Cap Friendly. We know the Hurricanes have an excess of capable defensemen, bolstered by trade deadline acquisitions of Sami Vatanen and Brady Skjei. Joel Edmundson, Vatanen and Trevor van Riemsdyk all become UFAs this offseason. With Brett Pesce expected to return healthy next season, it's reasonable that one or two of the UFA defensemen will not return. On offense, Warren Foegele is a restricted free agent and likely gets a new deal. The wild card is Justin Williams, who is unrestricted. If he wants to return, the Canes will make it work. But at age 38, and after a season where he waited out a few months before joining the team, it will be interesting to see what he decides.
Stick with the tandem in net. While Petr Mrazek and James Reimer might not be the most exciting goaltending duo, they proved in these playoffs that they are more than capable, especially since they have a strong blue line in front of them. The Canes, a team with a reputation for being budget-conscious, of course could benefit from dipping into the free-agent pool for a player like Robin Lehner or Braden Holtby. But with Mrazek and Reimer both under contract through next season -- for the budget-conscious rate of a combined $6.525 million -- it's hard to imagine this team going in a different direction.
Start thinking about that Svechnikov extension. The No. 2 pick of the 2018 draft has been everything that's advertised, and maybe a little more, in a breakout sophomore campaign. The 20-year-old is still on his entry-level contract through next season, then is due for a huge pay raise. Carolina lucked out when Montreal gave Sebastian Aho an offer sheet last summer, because it set his price ($8.454 million per season) which is going to age well. That's the highest cap hit on the roster, by far; Jordan Staal is next at $6 million. If Svechnikov continues at his pace, he'll be due for something in the Aho neighborhood, and the Canes need to prepare accordingly, especially with the cap staying flat.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
Considering that there won't be much turnover, the Canes should be a playoff team, though the window will be open for a while. Carolina's roster is filled with team-friendly contracts, and stars just about to reach their prime; Aho is only 23 and on the books through 2023-24. Watch out, Metropolitan Division!
Columbus Blue Jackets: The foundation is quite strong
What went wrong
Once again, the Blue Jackets were giant killers this postseason. Their defensive structure had stifled the high-powered Toronto Maple Leafs -- the only team in the league with three forwards making more than $10 million per year -- in a qualification-round upset, just as they shut down the Tampa Bay Lightning in last year's shocking first-round sweep. Though the Blue Jackets gave Tampa Bay all they could handle this in the first round this time around, they simply ran out of steam. The qualification-round series was a draining one, and a five-overtime thriller to start the Lightning series was too much to overcome in a span of weeks. Even after playing a ton of intense hockey in that three-week span, John Tortorella's team battled hard until the end, just as they always do.
But this season is a victory, and let's put it in a bigger context. Nobody expected much from the Blue Jackets this season after three of their best players (Sergei Bobrovsky, Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene) left for new teams last summer, seeking what they perceived to be better situations. So it felt gratifying that the Blue Jackets stayed in the bubble longer than all three of those players and their new teams.
The Blue Jackets also have to feel great about their goaltending duo of Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins. Not only was there no drop-off in production from Bobrovsky, but both young netminders are locked in at reasonable contracts -- they will make a combined $6.8 million through 2021-22. "You know, everybody thought we were taking a bit of a chance, or we were risky or whatever you want to call it," GM Jarmo Kekalainen told ESPN in early March. "But I always said if you want to look at a potential No. 1 goalie, why not look at your own backups first? We had a good backup in Korpisalo, and we've had our hands on Elvis Merzlikins' development for years. We were confident that he had the talent. Whether he could do it in the NHL -- that's a different pressure level, and a different level of shooters. But he's handled it really well, and we had the confidence that he could."
There's a lot to be proud of in Columbus. Mostly that the 2019-20 season, however unusual, proved that the foundation Kekalainen built is strong. And the future isn't as bleak as some had thought.
Keys to the offseason
Pay Pierre-Luc Dubois. Did you watch Game 3 of this series? Good, then you know that the 22-year-old Dubois, the No. 3 pick of the 2016 draft, has all the potential in the world. He's a big, powerful skater who has the ability to take over games, and the Blue Jackets absolutely want to keep him around. With his entry-level contract expiring this offseason, Dubois hits restricted free agency, and Columbus is going to need to pay up for a big extension. It's hard to find a comparable given the current economic uncertainty, but Winnipeg's Patrik Laine -- drafted one slot ahead of Dubois -- settled on a two-year bridge deal with the Jets in September, earning $6.75 million in average annual value. It would behoove the Blue Jackets to do something with a longer term -- Auston Matthews, taken No. 1 overall in that class, is one of the aforementioned Leafs making more than $10 million per season. With the salary cap staying flat the next few seasons until things recover, they could backload the deal. It's unclear what both sides are looking for, though, so it will be interesting to see these negotiations play out.
Start thinking about Zach Werenski, Seth Jones. Ever since Bobrovsky and Panarin left, it became apparent that the faces of the franchise are Jones and Werenski, the best young defensive pairing in the league. (In the 2022 Olympics, expect to see these guys manning the top pair for Team USA. That's how good they are). While both are under contract -- and very reasonable contracts given their talent, making just a combined $10.4 million -- through 2021-22, it's not too early to start planning for their next deals.
What to do with the other RFAs. Kekalainen is going to want to stay somewhat frugal in negotiations with his non-Dubois RFAs. Vladislav Gavrikov -- a good young defenseman -- also needs a new deal. As does Josh Anderson. That latter negotiation is tricky, considering Anderson finished the season sidelined because of a shoulder injury. At 26, he has flashed potential (he scored a career-high 27 goals in 2018-19), but appeared in only 26 games this season. Anderson could be a candidate to be moved.
Focus on development. The knock on the Blue Jackets for some time is that they don't have enough depth scoring. While that is still true to an extent, they do have some in-house candidates ready to take the next step. The qualification round was tremendous experience for 20-year-old Alexandre Texier, and especially 20-year-old Liam Foudy, the speedy 2018 first-round pick who made the jump right from juniors. Expect both to play a big role next season. Columbus is still in a bit of draft pick purgatory after going all-in for the 2019 playoffs; the Blue Jackets are without a second- or third-round pick in the 2020 draft and without a second-round pick in the 2021 draft. But after that, they'll restore to some normalcy.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
We had very low expectations for the Blue Jackets entering this season considering the type of turnover they experienced. Columbus proved us wrong -- despite some bad injury luck this season -- and showed that their system works. Given John Tortorella's track record of getting guys to buy in, the Blue Jackets should be competing for a playoff spot yet again next season. And good luck to whomever draws them in the first round.
Chicago Blackhawks: Another offseason cap crunch
What went wrong
The Blackhawks didn't expect to make the postseason in 2020 and shocked a lot of people with an assertive series win against the Edmonton Oilers in the qualifying round. There was some poetic justice when Chicago faced Robin Lehner and his new team, the Vegas Golden Knights, in the next round. The Blackhawks traded Lehner in February because they didn't think they were a playoff team, and he largely shut them down, proving that they were right in not holding high expectations for the stretch run.
GM Stan Bowman has been retooling on the fly the past few seasons, all while being straddled by some hefty contracts -- namely, Brent Seabrook's, which runs through 2023-24 at $6.875 million per season. Bowman has found ways to augment his team creatively -- the trade for Dominik Kubalik (which cost Chicago only a fifth-rounder) is the best example, as Kubalik was a Calder Trophy finalist and appears to be a goal-scoring threat for years to come. But there is only so much Bowman can do, and the blue line was the biggest area of weakness for this team this season. Chicago suffered from some bad puck luck against Vegas -- the Blackhawks largely battled well -- but ultimately lost to a deeper and more talented team.
Keys to the offseason
Young forwards get paydays. Chicago will be working with limited cap space this summer, and the bulk of that will be dedicated toward extensions for important young restricted free agents: 24-year-old Kubalik and 23-year-old Dylan Strome. The fact that the cap is staying flat for the next several years may force some creativity and the potential for bridge deals. The Blackhawks are wary of Kubalik becoming the next Artemi Panarin -- a gem they signed from Europe who eventually became too talented to afford with their current salary structure. Negotiations for both players should be fascinating. Because the Blackhawks need to think frugally, two other RFAs are likely to be casualties: Drake Caggiula and Slater Koekkoek. Chicago can replace both in house. (Brandon Hagel can take over Caggiula's role, while hotshot rookie Ian Mitchell should come in and get an immediate spot on the blue line.)
A question in net. Corey Crawford has been manning Chicago's net for the past decade, but the team faces a crossroads this summer as the 35-year-old becomes an unrestricted free agent. If Crawford wants to keep playing (and there's no indication yet he's eyeing retirement), the most likely path going forward is a team-friendly one-year deal. After paying Kubalik and Strome, the Blackhawks simply can't afford much more than that, and if Crawford wants to stay in Chicago, that might be his only choice.
The Blackhawks have some decent options in the pipeline (Collin Delia, Kevin Lankinen) and they'll have to make a choice on RFA Malcolm Subban, who hasn't started a game since coming over from Vegas, so he could be an easy goodbye. The Blackhawks don't trust any of them to handle a No. 1 workload just yet. Chicago could also look to the UFA market, though that might be more expensive than keeping Crawford. Braden Holtby is the big name. A reunion with Lehner is possible, but it's clear he's looking for a long-term commitment, and that's something the Blackhawks weren't willing to do in February, so it's hard to imagine much changing now.
Leadership. The biggest question surrounding the Blackhawks is: Who gets to make the decisions? The team parted with longtime president John McDonagh during the pandemic pause, and Danny Wirtz (son of owner Rocky Wirtz) took over in an interim role. According to sources within the organization, it's unclear whether Danny Wirtz wants the job permanently.
There has also been buzz around the league that this could be it for GM Stan Bowman and coach Jeremy Colliton. The caveat is that Colliton has one year remaining on his deal. With the Blackhawks (like many teams around the league) auditing their spending during a period of economic uncertainty, ownership might not find it palatable to pay two coaches' contracts next season. But if Colliton does go, it's assumed that Bowman would as well; the GM won't get the opportunity to hire yet another coach.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The Blackhawks' character was revealed during this summer's tournament. They're a team many have counted out, but might just have the grit to make one more run with this core group intact. While there were great strides on offense, the defense is still a mighty concern, and with very little flexibility to change the makeup of this team in the offseason, we're looking at a fringe playoff team.
Qualification round casualties
Toronto Maple Leafs: Where do they go from here?
What went wrong
For Toronto Maple Leafs fans, it's never been a matter of whether their team would lose in the postseason. It's happened every year they've qualified since 1967. No, the question is always, "How will they lose?" What freak occurrence or bad call or miraculous rally or hot goalie or self-inflicted blunder was going to subvert Toronto's efforts to finally claim another Stanley Cup?
"It was 4-1" is one of those moments of infamy, a reference to the Leafs' late third-period collapse in a Game 7 loss to the Boston Bruins in May 2013. To that, Leafs fans can now add "it was 3-0," in reference to their epic fold in Game 3 against the Columbus Blue Jackets before losing in overtime Thursday.
But that wasn't enough pain for Leafs Nation. That's a stubbed toe compared to what they're used to feeling in the playoffs. In Game 4, Toronto erased a 3-0 deficit and then won the game in overtime to force Game 5. Then came the real pain: Watching a line of Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Mitch Marner -- which made a combined $47.8 million in salary this season -- get shut out in Game 5, along with the rest of their teammates as Toronto was eliminated from the postseason.
There's no guarantee the Maple Leafs would have won this series if they had cruised to victory in that game. But now, having lost, it can be viewed as one of its humbling turning points after they took Game 2. The concern that their porous team defense -- and overreliance on goalie Frederik Andersen -- was a recipe for postseason problems proved prophetic.
Obviously, there was more to it than one game. Losing defenseman Jake Muzzin for the series thinned out what was already the weakest area of the team; watching Tyson Barrie go down in Game 5 added to that. And credit where it's due to the Jackets as a team that certainly has shown in the past two postseasons that it can outwork and outlast a highly skilled opponent.
Now that the "how" is out of the way, what comes next?
Keys to the offseason
Welcome to the salary-cap nightmare. Few teams were affected by the flat salary cap of $81.5 million next season more than the Maple Leafs. They spent to the limit this season. Cap Friendly projects them to have about $4.5 million of open space with 16 players under contract. They have a few unrestricted free agents, but also need to give restricted free agents Ilya Mikheyev and Travis Dermott new deals.
The Leafs have $33,527,000 tied up in cap space for three players: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares. Having three stars players of that magnitude is a luxury. But dedicating 41% of the salary cap to them is a risk when the salary cap is linked to revenue growth and when the team doesn't get the desired results. The ultimate silver lining -- and irony -- would be if the Maple Leafs win the draft lottery to add an elite offensive talent in Alexis Lafrenière at a rookie salary-cap hit for the next three seasons.
Rebuilding the blue line. The Tyson Barrie trade was a bust for the Leafs, as Barrie posted his lowest point production since 2016-17 and lowest goal production since 2012-13. And you're not bringing in Barrie for his defense. He's an unrestricted free agent, as is Cody Ceci, and neither is expected back. Morgan Rielly and Muzzin are the veterans to build around, Dermott and Justin Holl should be back. The Leafs are going to give highly regarded Rasmus Sandin more responsibilities next season after he played 28 games this season. They signed top KHL defenseman Mikko Lehtonen for next season as well, at a cap-friendly deal ($925K). Will they let the kids fill in for Barrie and Ceci, or does general manager Kyle Dubas get aggressive for a proven commodity in the offseason trade market? Among the interesting trade bait to dangle: 25-year-old forward Andreas Johnsson, making $3.4 million annually through 2022-23.
Figure out what you do (you had all summer to think of it). Coach Sheldon Keefe, who replaced former coach and current fan of schadenfreude Mike Babcock, said something stunning after the Leafs' Game 3 loss: His unhappiness about their performance preceded their collapse in that game, tracking back to when they built that three-goal lead. "We didn't have any real purpose or plan to our game today. We were just making it up as we went along. So we get what we deserve," he said.
How does that happen?
"Tough to explain. That's part of the deal."
Maturation, leadership, coaching, culture ... maybe some of them, maybe all of them, contribute to baffling confessions like this. If this collection of Leafs is ever going to end the fans' decades of pain instead of further contributing to it, they need to figure this out.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The Maple Leafs have made the playoffs for the past four seasons with a points percentage of .579 or better. Their high-end offensive talent, and the expected goaltending from both Andersen and Jack Campbell, should be good enough to see them qualify again. But in each of those seasons, they've been one-and-done, and have not won a playoff round since 2004. It's going to be fascinating to see how the team reacts to this latest one, both in approach and in personnel changes.
Minnesota Wild: Bring on Kirill Kaprizov
What went wrong
Bill Guerin didn't inherit an ideal roster when he took over as GM last summer. The Wild have one of the NHL's oldest teams, and they are saddled by contracts that have not aged well. The window for the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter era seems to have shrunk, rapidly. Guerin was patient to do anything rash, but has started to put his stamp on the roster. He traded away popular winger Jason Zucker for future assets, then fired Bruce Boudreau. The promotion of Dean Evason led to some strong results late in the season -- sealing Minnesota a berth in this postseason -- and earned the coach a two-year contract extension.
This was always supposed to be a season of transition, and for the Wild, it ended when the offense just couldn't muster offense against the high-powered Vancouver Canucks. But there's plenty of reason for optimism. Mainly, one thing Guerin did that his two previous predecessors could not: the GM signed prized prospect Kirill Kaprizov away from Russia and brought him to North America. This is a monumental step for the organization because Kaprizov -- a talented winger who could have an Artemi Panarin-like impact in his first season -- represents everything the Wild need to be. He's young, he's fast, he's exciting. And he will hopefully provide the spark this team needs to get back on track.
Keys to the offseason
Was that the last hoorah for the captain? Mikko Koivu, Minnesota's 37-year-old captain, has played his entire 15-year career with the Wild. Koivu was once regarded as one of the best defensive centers in the game, but now he has been relegated to a fourth-line role. In 55 games this season, Koivu's average ice time was shaved down to 15:34 (down nearly three minutes per game from just one season prior). He was on pace for a career-worst goal total (.07 goals per game) as well as his lowest point total since he was a rookie.
There are two ways this is likely to go. The first option sees Koivu retire, or potentially sign in Europe to finish his career. The Wild could also do an inexpensive one-year deal, and take it from there. During the postseason, Koivu wasn't ready to discuss his future.
"It's very important, not only individually, also as a team, to live in the moment," Koivu said in an August video call with reporters. "It's not always easy by any means. Just trying to enjoy it. If we start looking too far ahead of ourselves, I don't think that's going to benefit us individually or as a team." Spoken like a true captain.
Take care of some new contracts. The Wild have three key restricted free agents who need new deals: Jordan Greenway, Luke Kunin and Kaapo Kahkonen. Defenseman Carson Soucy, who played in 55 games this season, is a group 6 unrestricted free agent. The Wild likely want to keep the 25-year-old around as a reasonably priced roster defenseman. Greenway and Kunin could both go for bridge deals, but it wouldn't be surprising to see the Wild work out something long term with Kunin. The 22-year-old was a regular in the top nine this season, recording a career high in goals (15) and assists (16).
Kahkonen is an interesting one, too. If the Wild are ready to move on from Devan Dubnyk, who has regressed over the past few seasons, they could turn to the 23-year-old Kahkonen as Alex Stalock's partner for 2020-21. Kahkonen was the AHL goaltender of the year, leading the league in wins (25) and shutouts (seven) with an impressive .927 save percentage. He's earned the opportunity for a bigger role.
Nail the draft. Besides Kaprizov, the Wild already landed another huge acquisition for next season: Judd Brackett. The name might not be familiar to most hockey fans, but it should be. Brackett was with the Vancouver Canucks for 12 years, and is responsible for some of the team's most prudent draft picks. Brackett's divorce from Vancouver made headlines as friction grew between him and GM Jim Benning.
Now Brackett gets a new slate as Minnesota's director of amateur scouting. He has a chance to make an immediate impression as the Wild could have two first-round picks (their own, plus a conditional one gained from the Penguins in the Zucker trade, though the Pens have the option to send their 2021 first-rounder instead). Although if they win the NHL's second draft lottery, their choice will be an easy one.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
Not to totally jump on the Kaprizov hype train, but here I go: The winger should be considered the front-runner for the Calder Trophy. He's already 23, a proven scorer in professional hockey, and just so darn fun to watch (Wild fans are in for a treat). As for the rest of the team? Feels like another season of being a playoff bubble team, but they're trending in the right direction.
Edmonton Oilers: Get Connor and Leon some help!
What went wrong
The Oilers were a two-man show during the regular season, which is fine when those two men are Leon Draisaitl, a Hart Trophy finalist with 110 points, and Connor McDavid, who had 97 points in 64 games.
But here's the thing about the Stanley Cup postseason: It's not the NBA. Two star players can exert their will and win a few games, but capturing a series requires a total team effort. What we saw from Edmonton in their qualification-round ouster by the Chicago Blackhawks was a team that wasn't ready for prime time, especially in terms of team defense.
They were undisciplined, averaging 8:21 in shorthanded ice time per game. Their power play remained potent, but it was only a plus-1 in special teams goal differential through three games. They weren't able to play at the pace they wanted, especially in Game 3 when the Blackhawks reduced the tempo of the action. They didn't defend at a playoff level: Chicago was overwhelmed in three game at 5-on-5, as the Oilers had an expected goals average of 3.01 per 60 minutes, which was third best; but their 2.14 goals against per 60 ranked them just 11th out of the 24 postseason teams. They had some bad puck luck, to be sure. But they also gave the Blackhawks too much.
Then there was coach Dave Tippett, hired last summer to turn this team into a contender. His decision to break up the line of Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins -- one of the NHL's best -- late in the season and for the first three games was a head-scratcher. Starting Mike Smith in Game 1 was even more of one, given that Mikko Koskinen was demonstrably the better goalie this season and steadied the ship in Game 2. But then, Mikko Koskinen wasn't Dave Tippett's goalie when he coached in Arizona.
Keys to the offseason
More support for Leon and Connor. GM Ken Holland made a splash at the trade deadline when he acquired Andreas Athanasiou, a player he had drafted while running the Detroit Red Wings. He didn't have a point in the first three games of the series and averaged just 10 minutes per game in ice time. That's after two points in nine regular-season games.
This isn't to throw shade at Athanasiou -- sample sizes, people -- but a reminder of how hard it is to fill out a roster behind two generational talents. The task was made harder through the years as the Oilers said farewell to a handful of talented forwards, some of whom shouldn't have been traded and others who just didn't work out. Let Tyler Ennis be the inspiration. He's a veteran, lost-cost option whose versatility has been an asset for the Oilers since the trade deadline. They need more grunts at forward. Preferably ones that can defend as well.
Of course, winning a certain draft lottery for Alexis Lafrenière would help, too.
Re-examine the blue line. The team's top four defensemen in ice time -- Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Kris Russell and Darnell Nurse -- are all under contract for next season, while Ethan Bear and Matthew Benning are restricted free agents. With apologies to Klefbom, this is a group that lacks that elite defenseman that's been a hallmark of Stanley Cup winners for decades. That's the bad news. The good news is that Edmonton has two young defensemen on the way, Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg, who could develop into one -- with Bouchard being closer to NHL-ready than the 19-year-old Swede. Do they tweak this unit in the offseason, perhaps with another puck mover? Or are they content with this group knowing help is on the way?
Upgrade the crease. Edmonton was 14th in team save percentage (.905), dragged down by 39 games of .902 goaltending from the 38-year-old Smith. Former GM Peter Chiarelli infamously handed Koskinen a three-year extension with a partial no-trade clause last season, so we'll assume he's not going anywhere. Smith is an unrestricted free agent, and it's a healthy UFA market to find a replacement. Hey, we hear Calgary has a guy ...
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The Oilers have two of the best players in the world, who proved this season that they can thrive on separate lines and then absolutely crush it at an historic level on the power play. As long as they have that, they can contend in the Western Conference. But to actualize as a championship contender, they need a supporting cast befitting of their stars, which will either arrive through the maturation of prospects or Holland working the phones. But the Oilers need to learn their lessons from this brief postseason appearance about discipline and, most of all, how to make that essential play at a key juncture. The Blackhawks won three Stanley Cups, and this series, having done that.
Pittsburgh Penguins: How to keep the window open
What went wrong
This is the exact situation many in the NHL feared when the league expanded the playoffs to 24 teams. The Montreal Canadiens were 24th in the NHL when the season was paused, and really didn't deserve to make the playoffs. The Penguins had battled all season long, despite horrific injury luck (nearly every key player missed time, including leading scorer Jake Guentzel, who was sidelined in late December by shoulder surgery) and squarely deserved a shot at the Stanley Cup this summer. GM Jim Rutherford certainly thought so, as he became a buyer at the trade deadline, mortgaging a first-round pick for Jason Zucker -- and also acquiring Patrick Marleau on the cheap.
It wasn't a hot Carey Price that doomed the Penguins -- although the Canadiens netminder was very good -- but rather the five-game series that was unforgiving to any mistakes. Matt Murray didn't have his best Game 3, a pivotal loss that put the Penguins on the brink, and defensive lapses were magnified. (Jack Johnson is not a popular name in Pittsburgh these days). Clutch scoring dried up when the team needed it most, and the Penguins were careless with puck possession when they needed to be disciplined. The Penguins now have a 12.5% chance at landing Alexis Lafreniere, and we know this franchise has a history with franchise-saving No. 1 picks. Landing Lafreniere would allow the Penguins to stay relevant for years to come, though it should have had to come down to luck.
Keys to the offseason
It's decision time for the goalies. Tristan Jarry or Murray; who is the long-term answer in net for Pittsburgh? Both of the Penguins' young goalies become restricted free agents this summer, and judgment day is coming. Jarry had the better season, going 20-12-1 with a 2.43 goals-against average, .921 save percentage and 6.04 goals saved above average, earning him an All-Star nod. He did trail off at the end of the season, which led the Penguins to start Murray in the playoffs, despite less impressive numbers (20-11-5, 2.87 GAA, .899 SV%, minus-12.07 GSAA).
Murray, of course, has two Stanley Cups, but it feels telling that Mike Sullivan turned to Jarry in Game 4 with the season on the line. The Penguins could look to trade one of them, as they lucked out earlier this season when they put Casey DeSmith on waivers and nobody claimed him. DeSmith is probably ready to make the jump as a regular NHL backup. It's likelier that Jarry stays, especially as he is going to be cheaper. The 24-year-old will be due a raise from the $675,000 salary he earned this past season, but will still be cheaper than Murray, who made $3.75 million this past season.
Shore up the blue line. The Penguins are a team that typically spends to the cap, leaving very little wiggle room for Rutherford, although he always seems to find a way. Things will be exacerbated over the next few seasons as the cap stays flat at $81.5 million.
The Pens have a few things going in their favor here. John Marino has turned into a reliable option, and he's on his entry-level contract, making $925,000 through next season. Marcus Pettersson, 24, has also turned out to be a good fit, and the Penguins locked him in on a reasonable $4.025 million per year extension, which kicks in next season. Justin Schultz is an unrestricted free agent though, and the Penguins discussed a long-term extension this season but nothing got done. Schultz made $5.5 million, and if he walks, Pittsburgh might have a hard time finding a replacement at such a good rate.
Juuso Riikola, 24, is also an RFA and a solid depth defensive option, but that would leave the Penguins' blue line as very young and inexperienced. Johnson, 33, isn't too expensive at $3.25 million, but he has become a liability, and so is the term of his contract -- through 2022-23. Could he be a buyout option?
Forward shuffle. Conor Sheary and Marleau both become unrestricted free agents, while Evan Rodrigues, Jared McCann, Anthony Angello, Sam Lafferty and Dominik Simon are RFAs. That's a lot of contracts for Rutherford to sort through. The team is likely to keep around most of the younger RFAs, and the caveat here is that Pittsburgh always seems able to find forwards to plug in and level up once they're under Sidney Crosby's watch. Even so, that's a lot of uncertainty for a team in win-now mode.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are still producing at high levels, and as long as that's the case, this team has a chance to win. But the window is closing, and cap issues will haunt this team. The Penguins will be a playoff team next season, but if they don't land Lafreniere, the clock is ticking on Crosby and Malkin winning another Cup.
Nashville Predators: Time to start the Juuse Saros era
What went wrong
The Predators are a veteran group that has been in ready-to-win mode for the last few seasons, though they seem to have plateaued after their run to the 2017 Stanley Cup Final. Nashville started the season with high expectations, but got stifled by inconsistency. One game they were on, another they were off, and they weren't going anywhere. Ultimately, GM David Poile understood that the product was getting stale, and he fired coach Peter Laviolette on Jan. 6, and brought in John Hynes.
It's never easy to go through an in-season coaching change, which often brings stylistic differences, so it's not a total surprise that the Predators didn't go on a long playoff run. The team and the coach were both feeling each other out when the season was paused in March, then they were forced to jump right into postseason intensity.
In the series against the Arizona Coyotes, Nashville was snake bitten and mistake prone. It didn't help that Matt Duchene -- the center to whom the Predators had long been linked, and inked to a $56 million contract last summer -- didn't stand out in this series. To be fair, neither did most Nashville forwards. The team also couldn't keep up with Arizona's speed.
Keys to the offseason
Two big free agents. Mikael Granlund and Craig Smith, two important middle-six forwards for Nashville, are both on expiring contracts. The Predators must determine whether they can keep both, or they might have to decide between the two. The cap staying flat at $81.5 million did no favors for Poile -- or either of these players. Granlund is two years younger than Smith, though Smith has played his entire career with the Predators organization.
Granlund benefited from the coaching change, as the Finn led all Predators forwards in ice time once Hynes became the coach, and it was a nearly two-minute increase from the Laviolette era. Given the current cap situation, both players may not get the contracts they expected, and short-term options are definitely on the table for both.
Can the young guys step in? The Predators have $72.2 million committed to 17 players next season and, as outlined above with the Granlund and Smith situation, may have to think thrifty to fill out the roster. With only $9.3 million to spend, Nashville likely won't be a big buyer on the free-agent market. Instead, it will be hoping that some players on entry-level (a.k.a. cheap) deals are ready to level up.
The big name to watch is Eeli Tolvanen, who carried big expectations when he came over to North America but has taken time to adjust. Tolvanen did make the Predators' postseason roster, meaning the team thinks he's close. A wild card is 19-year-old Philip Tomasino, the Predators' 2019 first-round pick. He's been a speedy playmaker in the OHL, but may still need to add strength to compete at the NHL level.
And as with any team that lost in the qualification round, the Preds could win the NHL's second draft lottery, and the opportunity to land Alexis Lafreniere with the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft.
Can Kyle Turris be salvaged? The $6 million per year center has been maligned for much of his Predators career, and things came to a flash point when Laviolette made Turris a healthy scratch for several games earlier this season. For better or worse, Nashville is stuck with Turris, who is not an attractive trade candidate due to low production his past two seasons. Hynes is doing all he can to instill confidence in Turris, even bringing him back up to the second line.
Next season will be a pivotal one for Turris. His contract runs through the 2023-24 season, and with a flat cap, Nashville wants to make it work. But at some point, it would be financially prudent just to cut ties (a buyout is a possibility).
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The expectation has been the same for this team ever since their 2017 Stanley Cup Final run: The Predators are supposed to be competing for championships, but they keep falling flat. Though next season will bring some changes (including the official passing of the torch from Pekka Rinne to Juuse Saros as the No. 1 goaltender), it's probably fair to expect much of the same.
Florida Panthers: More depth needed in South Florida
What went wrong
The Panthers went 35-26-8 during the regular season and were on the wild-card bubble when the NHL season was paused on March 12 because of the coronavirus pandemic. That was after Florida took a massive swing in the offseason, hiring coach Joel Quenneville to a contract reportedly worth over $30 million with a five-year term and signing prized free-agent goalie Sergei Bobrovsky to a seven-year, $70 million deal.
The Panthers were the No. 10 seed in the NHL postseason tournament, drawing the New York Islanders in the first round. That was a tough draw. The Islanders proved restart-ready with their defensive system and disciplined play. The Panthers' Game 3 win delayed the inevitable. It was their failure to rise to pivotal moments in a 2-1 loss in Game 1 and a 4-2 defeat in Game 2 that ensured their visit to the bubble would be brief.
Keys to the offseason
Pray for Alexis Lafrenière. The silver lining for any team that exited the qualification round is a lottery ticket. After a "placeholder team" won the first draft lottery in June, the eight teams eliminated in the qualification round will each have a 12.5% chance of winning the first overall pick and the chance to select Canadian junior star Alexis Lafrenière. Having Jonathan Huberdeau and a phenom -- on a rookie contract -- as your top two left wings for at least the next three seasons is not a bad way to build a contender.
Figure out the depth. The Panthers are going to have the opportunity to turn over some parts of this roster. They have 13 players under contract for next season, and currently have close to $21 million under the flat $81.5 million cap. Veteran forwards Mike Hoffman, Evgenii Dadonov, Erik Haula and Brian Boyle are all unrestricted free agents, as is defenseman Mark Pysyk. Mackenzie Weegar leads a pack of six restricted free agents.
The Panthers were third in goals per game (3.30) but that offense was top-heavy, powered mostly by Huberdeau, Dadonov and Aleksander Barkov, as well as a top-10 power play (21.3%). Defensively, the Panthers were 29th in goals against per game. Some of that was a putrid regular-season performance by Bobrovsky that gave Florida buyer's remorse before his steadier postseason showing. But this was still a team that ranked 22nd in expected goals against per 60 minutes in front of him.
This team needs better quality depth in all areas. As Quenneville will tell you from his days with the Blackhawks: Stars will make you a good hockey team, but it's the grunts down the lineup that make you a contender.
The question is what can be expected from the Panthers if they are, in fact, cutting payroll next season, as has been reported. The good news: They have a pair of young standouts in forwards, Grigori Denisenko and Owen Tippett, ready to contribute soon, and that's cheap labor.
Who takes over at GM? The Panthers announced on Aug. 10 that Dale Tallon would be leaving the team after 10 years. His contract had ended on July 1, but he was extended through to the end of the Panthers' season, which is now over.
There has been strong speculation in hockey circles that assistant general manager Eric Joyce could get the call with Tallon moved out of the gig. The Panthers have had their share of managerial musical chairs in the past five years, including the recent departure of Chris Pronger from the organization to help operate a high-end travel company. It's time for another GM to take the wheel, whether that's Joyce or an external candidate.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
With Barkov, Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle, Bobrovsky and Quenneville all under contract through at least 2021-22, there's a foundation here on which to build. If they defend better in front of Bobrovsky, and if he gets over his "Year 1 of a massive free-agent contract" jitters, they'll be better than a .529 points percentage team.
Winnipeg Jets: Build up that defense!
What went wrong
The 2019-20 season was dramatic for the Jets before it even began, and it's impressive that they made it to postseason hockey at all. It began in September, when top defenseman Dustin Byfuglien did not report to training camp as he mulled his NHL future. The Jets ended up suspending Byfuglien (for cap reasons), and by August, the sides agreed to mutually terminate his contract. In the meantime, the Jets were left with a measly defensive group; had they known about Byfuglien, they might have reconsidered their approach from last summer, they said goodbye to Ben Chiarot, Tyler Myers and Jacob Trouba.
The Jets were able to persist, thanks largely to a heroic goaltending performance by Connor Hellebuyck, a Vezina Trophy finalist -- and likely winner. Give credit to Paul Maurice for keeping this group cohesive. Jets management was certainly impressed with the coach, handing him a long-term contract extension in February.
Winnipeg had a decent shot in its qualification series against Calgary, but losing their two best forwards -- Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine -- to injuries in Game 1 was an obstacle they just couldn't clear. Though there was a valiant effort by role players in Game 2, the truth is this team needs its most talented forwards to have any shot at winning. The good news is, there's no way next season can be as dramatic as this one.
Keys to the offseason
Decide which free agents stay and which go. A flat salary cap isn't ideal for any team, and the Jets are going to have to make some tough financial decisions. There are 11 unrestricted free agents on the roster, meaning the complexion of this team could look quite different, although almost all of the players with expiring contracts are depth players.
The 11 UFAs are Nathan Beaulieu, Anthony Bitetto, Gabriel Bourque, Laurent Brossoit, Dylan DeMelo, Cody Eakin, Dmitry Kulikov, Mark Letestu, Luca Sbisa, Logan Shaw and Nick Shore. Out of this group, the two most interesting are DeMelo and Eakin. Both players were acquired at the trade deadline to improve the Jets for the short term, but GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has said he would like to keep both around if they turn out to be good fits. Eakin is a good depth center option, and he might not need much of a raise from the $3.85 million he's making now. Since he's a Winnipeg native, there could be mutual interest. DeMelo is going to be trickier. While he was a great addition to the Jets' blue line and immediately took on top pairing duties, he's coming off a contract that paid him $900,000 per season and will be due a significant raise.
Jack Roslovic and Sami Niku are also due new contracts as restricted free agents, and they are players the Jets would like to keep around.
Make a decision on Laurent Brossoit. Two seasons ago, Brossoit had a breakout campaign, and it seemed as if the Jets had a No. 1 goalie in waiting on their roster. The 2019-20 season brought a regression, as Brossoit struggled with a losing record (6-7-1), 3.28 goals-against average and .895 save percentage. It's one of the reasons they relied so heavily on Hellebuyck this season (besides the fact that Hellebuyck was just plain outstanding). Since the Jets are so confident with their No. 1, they don't have to worry as much about the backup, even though most teams in the league are trending toward two-goalie systems.
Brossoit, like starter Hellebuyck, is 27 years old. The two goalies have a good relationship, so that might convince the Jets it's worth keeping Brossoit. Plus, Brossoit won't be expensive, as he made $1.225 million this season.
Improve the blue line. The Jets' hodgepodge defensive group has been well chronicled, and with time to plan, Cheveldayoff should be able to improve the group for next season. A lot will depend on what happens with two of the UFAs, DeMelo and Kulikov. It's not unlikely that Kulikov will leave, freeing up a spot. The Jets feel good that Neal Pionk -- whom they acquired in the Trouba trade -- was a pleasant surprise, and they have some decent youngsters in the pipeline. They'll be monitoring Niku's development, hoping he's ready to take the next step. It's not unreasonable that Ville Heinola, last year's first-round pick, could be a key contributor next season.
Depending on how the UFAs shake out, Cheveldayoff might be in position to look to the open market and sign a veteran like Brenden Dillon, Travis Hamonic or Sami Vatanen to shore up the blue line.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The fact that the Jets were even able to put out a winning team, despite all of their turnover, is a testament to the core. There's a lot of talent on this roster, especially in the top-six forward group and in net, and plenty of familiar faces from the squad that made it to the Western Conference finals in 2018. With less drama, time to plan, and a (hopefully) improved blue line, the Jets should be competing for a playoff spot in the ultracompetitive Central Division yet again.
New York Rangers: The rebuild is over
What went wrong
We might always be left wondering how things would be different if Igor Shesterkin was available to start the first two games of the qualification round, as planned. Instead, Henrik Lundqvist got what is likely his last hurrah for the Rangers in Games 1 and 2 against Carolina -- and, frankly, it was sad to watch.
Even when Shesterkin played in Game 3, the Rangers' worst problems this season were exposed. They had too many defensive lapses. They were too dependent on goaltending. They were too reliant on one or two players to carry the load on offense. And the two stars who shined brightest this season (Hart Trophy finalist Artemi Panarin and 41-goal scorer Mika Zibanejad) didn't have their best series. The Rangers just didn't have their typical mojo against the Canes. New York scored four or more goals in three of their four meetings against Carolina this season, but scored just four goals total in three games this series.
The Rangers were finding their way just as the season was paused -- they won 11 of 15 games in February to give them a shot at the wild card -- but probably didn't deserve to make the postseason. This is a young team with an exciting future, and fans can rejoice that the rebuild appears to be over. But the truth is, they probably didn't have what it takes to make a run right now, and they're better off with the 12.5% chance at Alexis Lafreniere.
Keys to the offseason
Figure out the goaltending situation. The Rangers lucked out that the three-goalie carousel didn't implode, and everyone seemed to get along and understand the changing roles. Nonetheless, it can't carry over to 2020-21. Lundqvist, 38, is under contract through next season, and the team will have to chat with him about what to do. It's clear Shesterkin is the No. 1 goaltender for next season, and ideally Alexandar Georgiev (a restricted free agent whom the team decided to keep at the trade deadline) can stick around. Lundqvist has a no-trade clause, which he has been adamant about not waiving in the past. Is a buyout an option? If Lundqvist remains, that means Georgiev, 24, is likely on the move.
It's all about the RFAs. The Rangers were big spenders in unrestricted free agency last summer -- what else is new? -- but this offseason, the focus will be about taking care of guys already on the roster. Georgiev is an RFA, though his future is directly linked to what happens with Lundqvist. Three other important RFAs are Ryan Strome (who has been a good fit in New York), Brendan Lemieux (a rugged depth forward) and Tony DeAngelo (an offensive-minded defenseman). Though any of the three are bridge deal candidates, DeAngelo and Strome could feasibly fetch long-term commitments from the Rangers. New York could also explore the trade market for any of them. Popular forward Jesper Fast, an alternate captain this season, is an unrestricted free agent. New York might try to do something short term with the 28-year-old, who made only $1.85 million this past season.
Improve on D. There was one glaring deficiency with this team: defense. The Rangers, who were often bailed out by their goaltenders, allowed 34 shots per game; only the Chicago Blackhawks allowed more. There will be some change, perhaps in structure, as defensive assistant Lindy Ruff took the head-coaching job with the rival Devils. That might not be the worst thing. With DeAngelo as the only regular blueliner with an expiring contract, and so much emphasis being put on the RFAs, the Rangers might not have the flexibility to go shopping on the free-agent market.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
Rejoice, Rangers fans! The rebuild is over. It wasn't that painful, was it? (It was also expedited by the free-agency signing of Panarin last summer). After this season -- and especially what the team showed in February -- the expectation is to make the playoffs in 2020-21 (and beyond). There is valuable experience to be had for this young group, but the Rangers are probably still a year or two away from making legitimate runs at the Cup.
The first seven
Anaheim Ducks: Another down year
What went wrong
When Dallas Eakins took over as head coach, there was hope that the Anaheim Ducks could retool on the fly, that with a few bounce-back seasons from veterans in the core group, a few ahead-of-schedule seasons from young players and the continued dominance of John Gibson in goal, the Ducks could be good as they wait to one day become great.
Some aspects of Eakins' team were improvements on last season's Ducks, who were coached by Randy Carlyle until he was fired by GM Bob Murray, who then replaced Carlyle behind the bench. The Ducks were offensively superior (2.56 goals per game, up from 2.39) but defensively deficient (3.17 goals per game, up from 3.02). Suffering through more injuries and statistical decline from stars, the Ducks finished with a 29-33-9 record for a .472 points percentage -- down from .488 last season.
Ryan Getzlaf (42 points) saw his numbers decline for the second straight season. Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm and Josh Manson were all injured for stretches, with Manson's numbers (nine points in 50 games) declining for the second straight season.
But the most inexplicable downgrade in performance came from Gibson, who went from 29.2 goals saved above average in 58 games last season to 7.2 in 51 games this season. The safety net was yanked from under the Ducks, and they tumbled down the standings.
Keys to the offseason
Make the No. 6 pick count. The Ducks didn't get into the top three picks in the NHL draft, but the No. 6 pick puts them in prime position to draft an impact player or, potentially, to package something together for a player they might covet. The Red Wings at No. 4 and the Senators at No. 5 could be amenable to trading down if Anaheim is sold on a player who's still available. The Ducks haven't selected this high since they took Lindholm sixth overall in 2012. They need to get a player with that kind of impact.
Make smart cap moves. The Ducks' cap situation is deceptive. Yes, they have $6.625 million of Corey Perry buyout money hitting next season, but that's zeroed out by the $6.875 million of Ryan Kesler's cap hit that will be on long-term injured reserve again. However, that $4.5 million hit the Ducks took on in acquiring David Backes as part of the Ondrej Kase trade with Boston is a tough look under a flat salary cap next season. The Ducks don't have to spend much on their restricted free agents -- Troy Terry's $1.45 million cap hit on his new deal is in that neighborhood -- and have 12 forwards under contract for next season. They could take on a player from a capped-out team to bolster their group, but it would have to be at the right price.
Fix the special teams. Along with Gibson's season, the most startling decline for the Ducks statistically was on special teams. Perhaps those two issues are related on the penalty kill, which saw Anaheim drop to 77.0% efficiency. But it's the power play that really undermined them, dropping from 17.0% last season to 14.7% this season, second worst in the NHL. "Special teams, a major concern," Murray said. "If you put us in the middle of the pack on special teams, we could be one of the teams playing right now."
Be consistent with coaching. Eyebrows were raised when Murray told the Ducks' website that Eakins was still working through some issues from his first stint as a head coach in Edmonton. "I thought the communication was good early. It got off-track a little bit. As I've said before, he had to get rid of some of the things that came from Edmonton. I think those are gone now. He was very hard on some young people in Edmonton, and it kind of backfired on him. I'm not saying it's all his fault, by the way," Murray said. "He took the foot off the gas a bit with them. He's going to be much more consistent and on point with everybody next year. He had to get a few things out of the way, and he did." Obviously, in Year 2, one assumes Eakins will be a more confident and consistent coach.
Realistic expectation for 2020-21
It will probably be another season of pain before the horizon clears up. At a minimum, the Ducks want to see progress from players such as Terry, Max Jones and Sam Steel, maybe have Trevor Zegras make the leap and have a more effective and healthy blue line in front of what they hope is a resurgent season from Gibson. But after next season, Getzlaf ($8.25 million), Backes and Erik Gudbranson ($4 million) come off the books, and the Perry cap penalty drops back to $2 million. That's going to create some financial flexibility under a still-tight cap for old business (a new contract for Lindholm) and new business, such as augmenting a burgeoning young core with help from the outside. As for 2020-21, the key word is "progress" for Anaheim. "We were a decent hockey team a lot of nights," Murray said. "That's why I expect much more next year. We showed we could play the game."
Buffalo Sabres: Will new direction change the course?
What went wrong
Once again, the Sabres started off strong. They went 9-2-1 in their first 12 games under new head coach Ralph Krueger. By the time the NHL paused its season for the COVID-19 pandemic on March 12, however, the Sabres were 30-31-8, having lost six of their last seven games.
All scoring and no help makes Jack a lonely boy. That is to say that Jack Eichel, despite a career high in goals (36) and points per game (1.15), with 78 in a 68-game campaign, will spend another season outside the playoffs, his fifth since he entered the league. He has led the Sabres in scoring the past four seasons, including this one, scoring 28 more points and 14 more goals than the team's second-leading scorer (Sam Reinhart).
Buffalo simply didn't have the kind of quality depth behind Eichel that was necessary to compete in the Eastern Conference, especially with the devastating regression of winger Jeff Skinner. Skinner scored 40 goals playing with Eichel in 2018-19, signed an eight-year contract extension and then limped to 14 goals and 23 points playing off of Eichel's line for most of the campaign.
Yet despite being 21st in goals per game (2.80) and 22nd in goals against per game (3.12), the Sabres finished just three points out of what turned out to be the final postseason spot that went to Montreal -- with two games in hand against the Canadiens, including a head-to-head battle scheduled for March 13. Would making the playoffs have saved the job of general manager Jason Botterill? Considering that he was fired after Kim Pegula said the team was continuing with him despite the protestation of fans, we're guessing that's a "no."
Keys to the offseason
Thus begins the Adams administration. The Sabres are now in the hands of Kevyn Adams, who was the team's senior VP of business administration before he was named to replace Botterill in June. Buffalo has started to rebuild its hockey operations department after a housecleaning that claimed more than 20 jobs this summer; Jeremiah Crowe was promoted to director of scouting, and Jason Nightingale was made assistant director. But the Sabres still need to figure out the rest of Adams' cabinet and how it will be streamlined, as well as a new staff for the AHL affiliate in Rochester.
Time to use all of that cap space. Adams is taking over a roster that he'll quickly have a chance to shape in his image, as the Sabres have just 10 players signed for next season. That means more than $34 million in salary-cap space that Adams can use to sign some of the team's restricted free agents, such as Reinhart, rookie standout Victor Olofsson, defenseman Brandon Montour and goalie Linus Ullmark, sign some of the unrestricted free agents, such as Jimmy Vesey and Zemgus Girgensons, or acquire players from capped-out teams whose salaries the Sabres can absorb. If you're Jack Eichel, you'd probably like to hear more about that third option.
The Rasmus Ristolainen situation requires resolution. The Sabres' defenseman has been mentioned as a trade chip the past two seasons. At 25 years old and with two years remaining on a deal that carries a $5.4 million annual cap hit, he has value as an offensive player, even if his defense remains suspect at best. With the Sabres having a solid group of defensemen and prospects on the way, Ristolainen is also an expendable piece -- unless Adams thinks he's part of the foundation upon which to build.
Realistic expectation for 2020-21
Botterill's failure to fill this roster with NHL talent despite some huge swings (such as the Ryan O'Reilly trade) set the Sabres back, but we won't go as far as to say that they entering their third rebuild in four seasons. They have Eichel. They have Rasmus Dahlin, a burgeoning star defenseman. They have a great coach in Krueger. They have some prospects on the way, led by center Dylan Cozens. There are pieces falling into place for Adams to build around. If Adams finds the right construction materials, it isn't out of the question that Eichel could make the playoffs for the first time next season in a league in which parity reigns.
Detroit Red Wings: Is there nowhere to go but up?
What went wrong
Although that's difficult to narrow down, let's begin with an obvious answer: the draft lottery. The Detroit Red Wings did not finish 17-49-5 for a .275 points percentage -- the lowest by a non-expansion team in 21 seasons -- to earn the No. 4 pick in the 2020 NHL draft. Yet the lottery balls did not bounce GM Steve Yzerman's way last month, and though No. 4 overall is nothing to sneeze at, it isn't going to get Detroit Alexis Lafrenière, which was sort of the point of this whole "historic levels of losing" thing.
As for what else went wrong, that's a matter of expectations. Yzerman was transparent about the Red Wings' rebuilding through the draft. Whether Detroit "tanked" this season in the traditional sense is up for debate, but what can't be denied is their lack of enthusiasm to replace the veteran talent that was moved the past couple of seasons -- Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist and others -- with anything other than stopgaps or young prospects.
Thus, in this truncated season due to COVID-19, the Red Wings put up the third-lowest goals per game average (2.00) since 2001-02 and the second-highest goals-against average (3.73) since 1999-2000. They had the league's worst penalty kill (74.3) and the NHL's third-worst power play (14.9). No team took fewer shots on average (27.1). No team had a larger goal differential on the negative side than Detroit's minus-122.
But of all the horror show stats for the Red Wings this season, perhaps none was more horrific than goalie Jimmy Howard's stat line: a 2-23-2 record, a save percentage of .882 and a goals-against average of 4.20. He was the embodiment of this team's atrociousness.
Keys to the offseason
Make decisions on restricted free agents. Yzerman has had a season to figure out which parts of former general manager Ken Holland's roster should be part of the solution in Detroit. That includes a collection of 23-to-25-year-old players who are all hitting restricted free agency this offseason, among them forwards Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi, Adam Erne, Robby Fabbri, Brendan Perlini and defenseman Madison Bowey. Who stays (and for how long) and who goes should be fascinating, though it would be a surprise if Mantha, Bertuzzi and Fabbri aren't kept on deals with term.
Weaponize cap space. Thanks to those RFAs -- and unrestricted free agents such as forward Sam Gagner, defensemen Jonathan Ericsson and Trevor Daley, as well as Howard -- the Red Wings have just 11 players under contract for next season. That means the Red Wings would have more than $35.2 million in open cap space under the flat $81.5 million cap. There will be some very good teams -- St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Toronto among them -- that might need to shed salary in the offseason. Yzerman is in a position to take on veteran salaries attached to draft assets, take on players in their prime with high cap numbers or do both if he chooses to this offseason.
Find a goaltender. It's difficult to imagine the Red Wings asking Jimmy Howard back, as he turned 36 in March and made $4 million against the cap last season. It's also difficult to imagine he'd want to come back after that shellacking. Jonathan Bernier put up much more respectable numbers -- .907 save percentage, 2.95 goals-against average -- in 46 games for the Red Wings, and he's signed through next season at $3 million against the cap. If the Wings want to explore the UFA market for another netminder, they will find some big-name veteran starters (Braden Holtby, Corey Crawford, Robin Lehner) and some intriguing backups (Anton Khudobin, Aaron Dell). One interesting name: Thomas Greiss of the New York Islanders, who most certainly will not be back after the Islanders signed Ilya Sorokin. Greiss could solidify Detroit's crease while being a German ambassador for rookie defenseman Moritz Seider.
Realistic expectation for 2020-21
This will be another season in the mix for the draft lottery but hopefully one that's slightly less horrific. Coach Jeff Blashill has already been told that he is back next season, and his deal runs through 2021-22. He's clearly a caretaker for this rickety rebuild, and the Yzer-plan has a ways to go before the foundation is in place for another Red Wings playoff run.
Los Angeles Kings: Youth movement continues
What went wrong
Coach Todd McLellan's first campaign behind the bench in Los Angeles was always intended to be a transition season. The Kings had a core of veteran players that GM Rob Blake considered moving last summer before deciding that there wasn't a point in doing so. "I didn't see that we have young guys that can step in right away. There had to be a fill-in there anyway. So do you move somebody and then just get another veteran in free agency to fill in for a year or two?" he said to ESPN.
Los Angeles had a higher points percentage (.457) than it did in 2018-19 (.433) but still finished in the basement of the Western Conference. Veteran players Tyler Toffoli, Alec Martinez, Kyle Clifford and Jack Campbell were all traded. The Ilya Kovalchuk experiment ended with his release (and subsequent resurrection in Montreal).
But the offseason began on a high note: The Kings won the second overall pick in the NHL draft lottery, which likely means a chance to draft big-bodied center Quinton Byfield and add him to a pipeline of prospects ranked second in the NHL by ESPN.
Keys to the offseason
Be patient. Blake knew this was likely a lost season, and he likely knows next season could be, too. But the overall plan is proving to be a solid one. Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty and Dustin Brown aren't getting any younger, but the Kings should resist the temptation to push for veteran impact players, despite having more than $20 million in cap space, and hand the keys to the kids.
Work on the left side of the defense. With Doughty, Sean Walker (an RFA) and Matt Roy on the right side, the Kings are in good shape there. What they could use are a couple of stopgap veterans on the left side to give defensive prospects Tobias Bjornfot and Kale Clague a little more time on the vine. Unrestricted free agency offers some options.
Find a replacement for Mike Futa. The Kings opted not to renew assistant general manager Mike Futa's contract, cutting ties with one of the key player development executives from their two Stanley Cup championship teams. Blake has indicated that Futa's replacement could be "outside the box a little," specifically a younger executive who doesn't have an NHL playing background.
Realistic expectation for 2020-21
The 2020-21 Kings' best-case scenario is one in which a collection of younger players, surrounding an aging core, are competitive enough to sniff the playoff bubble. More realistically, this team is two years from getting back to serious contention. Give Alex Turcotte, Rasmus Kupari, Byfield, Bjornfot and others a chance to ripen. Hope that Kopitar and Doughty are still impact players, and augment the roster with others in their prime. But for now, patience is the virtue -- unless of course someone comes calling to take Jonathan Quick or Jeff Carter off the Kings' hands, in which case they should not wait.
New Jersey Devils: The Fitzgerald era begins in earnest
What went wrong
Everything went wrong for the Devils this season. It's a shame, too, because hopes were high after New Jersey won the 2019 draft lottery and the right to pick American center Jack Hughes. GM Ray Shero saw it as an opportunity to expedite his team's Stanley Cup timeline. He traded for defenseman P.K. Subban at the draft and signed veteran winger Wayne Simmonds to a one-year deal.
The team was let down by porous goaltending early (it was a rough start, especially for Cory Schneider), but systematic failures snuck up, too. It turns out the Devils might not have been that close to contending anyway. They fired coach John Hynes, then traded away Taylor Hall well before the trade deadline, nervous that he would walk away as an unrestricted free agent. Then ownership fired Shero, too. Tom Fitzgerald was tapped as interim GM and was given the full-time title this month. Fitzgerald's first hire was coach Lindy Ruff. The 60-year-old former Sabres and Stars coach is a safe, if unexciting, pick.
Goaltending ended up improving significantly. Mackenzie Blackwood had a strong second half, going 11-4-4 with a .921 save percentage in 20 starts after Christmas. But by that point, the damage was done. The Devils became big sellers at the trade deadline (Fitzgerald boldly said goodbye to versatile forward Blake Coleman, who had term on his contract past this season, plus pending UFAs Sami Vatanen, captain Andy Greene and Simmonds) as the franchise braced for the longer road ahead.
Keys to the offseason
Improve the defense. This area might give Devils fans pause. Before joining the Devils, Ruff was the defensive assistant coach of the rival New York Rangers -- and the Rangers haven't exactly had stellar blue-line play recently. This won't all fall on Ruff, though. Part of it is a personnel matter, and Fitzgerald will likely prioritize adding some defensemen to the roster after his team allowed the third-most goals per game. Although the jewel of the UFA market, Alex Pietrangelo, might cost more than the Devils are willing to spend as a team in transition, they could look to a midtier option, such as Chris Tanev or Brenden Dillon, or pursue the trade route. UFA Erik Gustafsson, who plays an offensively minded game, might be a good fit for Ruff's preferred up-tempo style.
Nail the draft. Since making the 2012 Stanley Cup Final, the Devils have missed the playoffs seven times in eight years. This a franchise that knows -- at least for now -- that a winning culture isn't a quick fix away. It's going to take some time to draft and develop players to build around Hughes and Nico Hischier, who, let's remember, are just 19 and 21 years old, respectively. The Devils have potentially three first-round picks in the 2020 draft (and no picks in the second or third round, which might increase their odds of keeping all three). Although their draft lottery luck ran out when they fell to No. 7 in 2020, Fitzgerald believes it's still a decent position to get an impact player. Besides their pick, the Devils also hold the Canucks' and Coyotes', though those are conditional and could slide to 2021 (in Vancouver's case, it will be postponed if the Canucks don't advance past the qualifying round; Arizona's pick will be delayed if the Coyotes win the draft lottery).
Commit (or don't) to Mackenzie Blackwood, Kyle Palmieri. Blackwood turned it on in the second half of the season and showed why he could be the Devils' goalie of the future. He's only 23. Couple that with the fact that Cory Schneider -- despite being under contract through 2021-22 -- appears to be finished as a starter, and New Jersey might want to commit to Blackwood on a reasonable, long-term deal now. Blackwood's entry-level contract expires this offseason, and he's due for a new one as an RFA. As for Palmieri? The 29-year-old's five-year contract doesn't expire until after next season, but it would behoove the Devils to get something done early. Palmieri is an important player on this team -- he led the Devils in scoring each of the past two seasons -- and is a strong captain candidate. It would be easier to give him the C if he were inked for the long haul.
Realistic expectations for 2020-21
The Devils have to be more realistic about themselves (or more realistic than they were at this point last year). Next season is going to be a transitional one for the franchise as the Devils attempt to reopen their Stanley Cup window. Hughes and Hischier (plus fellow youngsters Jesper Bratt, Will Butcher and Damon Severson) are still adjusting to the NHL and now must adapt to a new coach. A win for New Jersey next season is if the team adapts to Ruff's high-tempo style and gets quicker -- which will benefit a lot of the younger players -- and if Blackwood holds up all season with a full starter's workload. A playoff berth, however, might be unrealistic.
Ottawa Senators: Is there a draft in here?
What went wrong
In the two previous seasons, the Senators traded away Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene, Mark Stone and Ryan Dzingel. At the trade deadline this season, they added Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Dylan DeMelo to the list of former Senators. The good news is that the Senators have amassed quite a collection of draft picks over the next two seasons, with upwards of 14 in the first three rounds. The bad news is that with this exodus of talent and with the next wave of prospects not yet ready for prime time, the Senators were one Red Wings team away from the bottom of the conference. Ottawa finished 25-34-12, with a .437 points percentage.
First-year coach D.J. Smith presided over a team that was 25th in offense (2.68 goals per game) and second worst in defense (3.35). The power play was the worst in the NHL (14.2% conversion rate) and the penalty kill ranked 28th (76.1%). The Senators' underlying numbers were a bit better, at 20th in expected goals (2.43) and 23rd in expected goals against (2.54) at 5-on-5. They were, at times, a tough out for opponents. But a stretch from Dec. 29, 2019, through Feb. 11, 2020, saw them win twice in an 18-game span, and there's your season.
That said, the season wasn't without its bright spots. Brady Tkachuk (44 points) and Thomas Chabot (39 points) continued to look like foundational pieces for the franchise. Bobby Ryan made a tearful, triumphant return from a stint in the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program in one of the season's most uplifting moments. Perhaps best of all: The San Jose Sharks fell apart in Karlsson's second season there, handing the Senators a lottery pick.
Keys to the offseason
Don't blow this draft. No, the Senators didn't win the Alexis Lafrenière derby, despite having two lottery picks in draw. Instead, they'll draft third overall (thanks, Sharks!) and fifth overall. The No. 3 pick is an easy call, taking either center Quinton Byfield if he inexplicably drops or, more likely, center Tim Stutzle, unless they trade down. The fifth pick is a bit trickier, and that's where GM Pierre Dorion & Co. have to get it right. "I'm not sure it's sunken in right now, but when you look at all the players in the last 25 years in the top five, and the Ottawa Senators have a chance to take two of them, and these players can play as soon as next year, pending their development is on the right path," Dorion said after the lottery. But "get it right" goes beyond that: They could end up with the Islanders' first-rounder (unless the Isles win the draft lottery) and have four second-rounders and two third-rounders.
Sign more smart contracts. One of Dorion's biggest wins was locking up Chabot, 23, at $8 million annually through 2027-28. He also did well in getting Colin White, the 23-year-old center, locked up at a $4.75 million in average annual value through 2024-25. He has a couple of intriguing restricted free agents this offseason in 26-year-old forwards Connor Brown and Chris Tierney and 24-year-old forward Anthony Duclair, who had a resurgent season despite trailing off in the second half. After that, Brady Tkachuk is up for a new deal in 2021.
Utilize the cap, as much as Eugene Melnyk will allow it. Any conversation about the Senators inevitably leads back to their controversial owner. The notoriously, um, "thrifty" Melnyk has said in the past that he's willing to spend on this team when it rounds into a playoff contender. One way to get closer to being a contender: Take on salary from other teams desperate to dump it under a flat $81.5 million salary cap, either in the form of NHL talent in their prime or older veterans who arrive via trade with a draft pick sweetener. That brings us back to Melnyk: With more than $39.5 million in cap space this offseason and with a bevy of young players moving up to provide cheap labor next season, the opportunity is there for Dorion to weaponize his cap space. The question is whether Melnyk will limit those acquisitions because of financial considerations, i.e. players with high cap hits who aren't making much in terms of real dollars next season. We shall see.
Figure out the goaltender position. It would appear that Craig Anderson's run with the Senators is at an end as he hits unrestricted free agency. Marcus Hogberg will return next season. Will the other netminder come from within the organization, such as Filip Gustavsson or Joey Daccord, or will the Senators seek a veteran stopgap via unrestricted free agency?
Realistic expectation for 2020-21
It's always darkest before the dawn. The 10th-best prospect pool in the NHL is going to get deeper with this draft. By no means will the Senators be contenders next season, as they patiently wait for their young talent to develop. The best Ottawa fans can hope for is a competitive group with flashes of future brilliance -- well, that and for the off-ice scandals to be kept to a minimum for once.
San Jose Sharks: About as bad as "Jaws: The Revenge"
What went wrong
The phrase "everything that could go wrong did go wrong" comes close to describing the Sharks' 2019-20 season -- but it still probably doesn't do it justice.
It started with the salary-cap crunch -- partially caused by the eight-year, $92 million contract given to Erik Karlsson -- that necessitated the departures of captain Joe Pavelski, forwards Joonas Donskoi and Gustav Nyquist, and defenseman Justin Braun from last season's conference finalist. The younger players asked to fill those roles weren't ready for prime time, to the point that the Sharks brought back Patrick Marleau on a post-buyout deal to bolster the lineup.
Meanwhile, the team was playing porous defense in front of inferior goaltending, as the Sharks finished 27th in goals-against average (3.21) while starter Martin Jones was fifth from the bottom in goals saved above average (minus-15.49). The Sharks' middling 15-16-2 start cost coach Peter DeBoer his job, as assistant coach Bob Boughner took the reins and went 14-20-3 the rest of the season. Stars Logan Couture (18 games), Tomas Hertl (22 games) and Karlsson (14 games) missed time because of injuries. Brent Burns went from being a Norris Trophy finalist to his worst season statically since 2011-12. It was all very bad.
But the worst part? The real kick in the hockey pants? The Ottawa Senators were the ones who benefitted from the Sharks' humiliation, owning their first-round pick from the Karlsson trade and using it to win the third overall pick in the draft lottery.
Keys to the offseason
What about Bob? Boughner's status remains strangely unofficial, even though reports and practically all signs point to him returning next season as head coach. One of these signs is the apparent hiring of Rocky Thompson as an assistant coach after he left the AHL Chicago Wolves' bench. Boughner and Thompson have history with the OHL's Windsor Spitfires. Again, nothing is official from the Sharks on any of this, but it appears that Boughner's the guy.
Start the rebuild or press on? As has often been the case under GM Doug Wilson, the Sharks have a high-priced core with plenty of trade protection, which makes dealing those assets in an effort to get younger and cheaper a tough task. Take someone such as Burns, who is 35 and makes $8 million against the cap through 2024-25. There would be a market for a puck-moving, power-play quarterback, in theory. But he has a three-team list of teams to which he'll accept a trade, and the NHL is facing a few years with a flat salary cap. If the Sharks are stuck with Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Martin Jones and the rest of these veterans, perhaps the only move is to take another crack at a Stanley Cup because this is the bed that they've made.
Replace Aaron Dell? Because Jones has (a) his $5.75 million cap hit through 2023-24, (b) trade protection and (c) little trade value to speak of, one assumes he'll return to the Sharks' crease next season. (They also publicly back him.) But Dell, who gained some respect this season for playing competently, is an unrestricted free agent. There's room here for an upgrade if they want one, as the UFA goalie market has a lot of options, but there's always a chance that they return the same battery as last season and hope for different results.
Realistic expectation for 2020-21
A return to the playoffs. Despite their veteran status -- we haven't even touched on the future of 41-year-old franchise legend Joe Thornton -- there's a considerable amount of talent on this roster, especially in the top two forward trios and defensive pairings. The Sharks will need bounce-back seasons from Burns and Timo Meier. They'll need another 30-goal pace from Evander Kane. They'll need better team defense in front of competent goaltending and a supporting cast offering a bit more support than it did last season. They'll absolutely need Couture and Karlsson to stay in the lineup. Last season was a disaster and potentially a harbinger of a steep decline. But under the right circumstances, there might be a bit more bite left in the Sharks.