If there's one thing NHL scouts hate, it's re-drafts. The reverse engineering and 20-20 hindsight make it all too easy for us to ask "What if?" and point out where everyone went wrong in evaluations. But unfortunately for those scouts, that's also what makes re-drafts fun exercises.
There is no magic formula for teams to draft perfectly. They don't have a crystal ball, and there always will be misses. Even so, we've seen fewer and fewer glaring mistakes in the first round of the annual NHL draft. Franchises might not get full value, but more often than not, they are drafting everyday NHLers on Day 1.
When we apply what we know today to the past 10 draft classes, we can paint a unique picture of each group. We revisited the top 10 picks of those draft classes, from 2010 to 2019, and reassigned picks. Some still are no-brainers today just as they were at the time -- surprise, Connor McDavid still is the No. 1 selection in 2015! -- but most picks land a new player. So let's see how things stand based on our less fallible hindsight vision from 2010 to 2019, and what we've learned from the past decade of NHL drafting.
Note: Original picks are in parentheses. Draft order is the final order and takes trades into consideration.
Jump to:
2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019
Overarching takeaways
2010
1. Edmonton Oilers: Taylor Hall (Taylor Hall)
2. Boston Bruins: Tyler Seguin (Tyler Seguin)
3. Florida Panthers: Artemi Panarin (Erik Gudbranson)
4. Columbus Blue Jackets: Vladimir Tarasenko (Ryan Johansen)
5. New York Islanders: Evgeny Kuznetsov (Nino Niederreiter)
6. Tampa Bay Lightning: Mark Stone (Brett Connolly)
7. Carolina Hurricanes: Jeff Skinner (Jeff Skinner)
8. Atlanta Thrashers: Ryan Johansen (Alexander Burmistrov)
9. Minnesota Wild: John Klingberg (Mikael Granlund)
10. New York Rangers: Cam Fowler (Dylan McIlrath)
Other notable talents from 2010: Jaden Schwartz, Brendan Gallagher, Tyler Toffoli, Jason Zucker, Kevin Hayes, Justin Faulk and Brock Nelson
Ten years later, the Taylor vs. Tyler debate rages on. Comically enough, both players ended up being traded away by Peter Chiarelli. But they remain the two best players in this class: Seguin has a Stanley Cup and Hall won a Hart Trophy.
Those two aside, one of the best players from this age group is the undrafted Panarin, who is in the Hart Trophy conversation this season. He didn't really pop until a year later, and soon he was on a lot of teams' radars before ultimately signing as a free agent with Chicago as a 23-year-old. In this case, he'd be a big selection at No. 3 for one of the teams rumored to be targeting him in free agency this past offseason.
Meanwhile, fellow Russians and future Stanley Cup champions Tarasenko (originally No. 16 overall) and Kuznetsov (No. 26) land with new homes. And Tampa Bay gets Stone, who has become one of the best two-way wingers in the game, even though he was a late bloomer in comparison to a lot of his fellow draftees.
2011
1. Edmonton Oilers: Nikita Kucherov (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins)
2. Colorado Avalanche: Johnny Gaudreau (Gabriel Landeskog)
3. Florida Panthers: Jonathan Huberdeau (Jonathan Huberdeau)
4. New Jersey Devils: Sean Couturier (Adam Larsson)
5. New York Islanders: Mark Scheifele (Ryan Strome)
6. Ottawa Senators: Mika Zibanejad (Mika Zibanejad)
7. Winnipeg Jets: Gabriel Landeskog (Mark Scheifele)
8. Philadelphia Flyers: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Sean Couturier)
9. Boston Bruins: Dougie Hamilton (Dougie Hamilton)
10. Minnesota Wild: John Gibson (Jonas Brodin)
Other notable talents from 2011: Brandon Saad, Ondrej Palat, J.T. Miller, Vincent Trocheck, Rickard Rakell, William Karlsson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Andrew Shaw
There was a lot of healthy debate going into this draft about who should be No. 1, with Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Larsson and even Couturier getting some top-pick buzz. But in the end, the best player from the draft class went 58th overall. Kucherov slipped to the Lightning amid "Russian Factor" concerns. He moved to North America the next season, and three years later, he was in the NHL. Now Kucherov has an Art Ross and a Hart Trophy as one of the game's elite wings.
The 2011 draft might not have been star-laden at the top, but a lot of high-impact players were selected early in this draft. Landeskog, Couturier and Nugent-Hopkins have been important players. Scheifele looked like a bit of a reach as the Jets' first-ever draft pick at No. 7, but he developed into an elite player in the league and a core piece for the franchise -- so much so that he actually goes higher in our re-draft, at No. 5 to the Islanders. And at sixth overall, Ottawa stays the course. Zibanejad has been getting better every season and just hit the 40-goal mark for the first time. We have to wonder if they hang on to him this time.
This was a particularly tricky re-draft. Landeskog probably doesn't deserve to fall as far as he did based on his body of work, but I give the guys ahead of him a slight advantage in terms of impact. Gaudreau, a fourth-rounder, has been nearly a point-per-game player with the Flames, and Colorado would jump at the chance to put him on the first-line wing.
2012
1. Edmonton Oilers: Filip Forsberg (Nail Yakupov)
2. Columbus Blue Jackets: Morgan Rielly (Ryan Murray)
3. Montreal Canadiens: Andrei Vasilevskiy (Alex Galchenyuk)
4. New York Islanders: Tomas Hertl (Griffin Reinhart)
5. Toronto Maple Leafs: Teuvo Teravainen (Morgan Rielly)
6. Anaheim Ducks: Jacob Trouba (Hampus Lindholm)
7. Minnesota Wild: Jaccob Slavin (Matt Dumba)
8. Pittsburgh Penguins: Hampus Lindholm (Derrick Pouliot)
9. Winnipeg Jets: Connor Hellebuyck (Jacob Trouba)
10. Washington Capitals: Frederik Andersen (Filip Forsberg)
Other notable talents from 2012: Tanner Pearson, Shayne Gostisbehere, Tom Wilson, Colton Parayko and Matt Murray
The 2012 draft easily is one of the most disappointing in a while. The top pick, Yakupov, did not pan out at all. The second pick, Murray, has dealt with a litany of injuries. The third pick, Galchenyuk, has been on four teams in the past two seasons. The No. 4 pick, Reinhart, had tremendous promise but has never achieved NHL success. You get the point -- it has been a real letdown.
Forsberg, though, grew into an impact forward and Rielly has been a core piece for the Maple Leafs. Vasilevskiy (originally taken at No. 19) quickly grew into a No. 1 goalie and already has a Vezina to show for it. Even with Carey Price in Montreal, it would have been hard for the Canadiens to pass on a talent such as Vasilevskiy in favor of anyone else in this class. In fact, you could make a case that he should be No. 1 in the re-draft, and I wouldn't argue too hard. But even established goalies remain a little less predictable.
This 2012 class turned out to be a really strong goalie draft, hence three of them landing in our top-10 re-draft. Five legitimate starters came out of it: Vasilevskiy, Andersen, Hellebuyck, Murray and Joonas Korpisalo. And yet the Bruins drafted Malcolm Subban at No. 24 overall, and he appears to be topping out as a career backup.
2013
1. Colorado Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon (Nathan MacKinnon)
2. Florida Panthers: Aleksander Barkov (Aleksander Barkov)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning: Seth Jones (Jonathan Drouin)
4. Nashville Predators: Sean Monahan (Seth Jones)
5. Carolina Hurricanes: Bo Horvat (Elias Lindholm)
6. Calgary Flames: Elias Lindholm (Sean Monahan)
7. Edmonton Oilers: Max Domi (Darnell Nurse)
8. Buffalo Sabres: Jake Guentzel (Rasmus Ristolainen)
9. Vancouver Canucks: Anthony Mantha (Bo Horvat)
10. Dallas Stars: Darnell Nurse (Valeri Nichushkin)
Other notable talents from 2013: Andre Burakovsky, Anthony Duclair, Pavel Buchnevich, Shea Theodore, Tyler Bertuzzi, Josh Morrissey, Brett Pesce and Tristan Jarry
This was a quality draft with a legit race at the top. Drouin outproduced MacKinnon for Halifax that season, Jones was viewed (and still is) as a long-term No. 1 defenseman and Barkov put together what still stands as the best season by a U18 player in Finland's top pro league.
The teams largely got their picks right. MacKinnon ended up a regular Hart Trophy contender now, Barkov is widely considered one of the best two-way centers in the game and Jones probably has a Norris Trophy before his career is done. Imagine if Jones were paired with 2009 first-rounder Victor Hedman on the Lightning blue line?
Drouin hasn't lived up to expectations, though. It was a justifiable pick at the time given his dominance at the junior level, but things didn't quite work out. Of the teams that got the best slot value, it'd be hard to do much better than the Penguins selecting Guentzel at No. 77 overall. He now has the sixth-most goals of anyone in the draft class in only 243 games played.
2014
1. Florida Panthers: Leon Draisaitl (Aaron Ekblad)
2. Buffalo Sabres: David Pastrnak (Sam Reinhart)
3. Edmonton Oilers: Dylan Larkin (Leon Draisaitl)
4. Calgary Flames: Brayden Point (Sam Bennett)
5. New York Islanders: Nikolaj Ehlers (Dal Colle)
6. Vancouver Canucks: William Nylander (Jake Virtanen)
7. Carolina Hurricanes: Aaron Ekblad (Haydn Fleury)
8. Toronto Maple Leafs: Viktor Arvidsson (William Nylander)
9. Winnipeg Jets: Sam Reinhart (Nikolaj Ehlers)
10. Anaheim Ducks: Kevin Fiala (Nick Ritchie)
Other notable talents from 2014: Nick Schmaltz, Jakub Vrana, Christian Dvorak, Danton Heinen, Alex Tuch, Tony DeAngelo, Robby Fabbri, Kevin Labanc, Ondrej Kase, Jared McCann, Adrian Kempe, Victor Olofsson, Igor Shesterkin and Elvis Merzlikins
The Oilers had four first-rounders in a six-year span, but one of their best picks of the decade was actually Draisaitl at third overall in 2014. In case you've missed it, he was leading the NHL in points (110) this season at the time of the suspension of play. And how about the value the Bruins got with Pastrnak (tied for third in points this season at 95) at 25th overall? Or Detroit getting a No. 1 center at No. 15 in Larkin? Who saw the 79th overall pick, Point, growing into a core player for a regular Stanley Cup contender? Talk about steals.
Indeed, this '14 draft was kind of all over the place. Ekblad was the clear No. 1 in the class at the time, and you wonder if he'd be on track today without the concussion issues he has dealt with. He's a good defenseman, and still a top-10 caliber player, but it's really hard to argue for him atop the board based on the forwards who went in this draft.
2015
1. Edmonton Oilers: Connor McDavid (Connor McDavid)
2. Buffalo Sabres: Jack Eichel (Jack Eichel)
3. Arizona Coyotes: Mitch Marner (Dylan Strome)
4. Toronto Maple Leafs: Mikko Rantanen (Mitch Marner)
5. Carolina Hurricanes: Sebastian Aho (Noah Hanifin)
6. New Jersey Devils: Mathew Barzal (Pavel Zacha)
7. Philadelphia Flyers: Zach Werenski (Ivan Provorov)
8. Columbus Blue Jackets: Ivan Provorov (Zach Werenski)
9. San Jose Sharks: Brock Boeser (Timo Meier)
10. Colorado Avalanche: Kyle Connor (Mikko Rantanen)
Other notable talents from 2015: Thomas Chabot, Travis Konecny, Jake DeBrusk, Anthony Beauvillier, Anthony Cirelli, Ilya Samsonov and Mackenzie Blackwood
The McDavid draft delivered so much more than the best player on the planet. This class is loaded and will probably go down as one of the better post-lockout drafts. McDavid tops the class by a wide margin, but Eichel has lived up to every bit of hype he had coming into this draft, too.
The quality of this first round was excellent overall -- though not everyone reaped the benefits. The Bruins famously had three straight picks in middle of the first round and got just one NHL regular out of it (DeBrusk) while passing on top-10 re-drafts Barzal (No. 16 overall), Connor (No. 17) and Boeser (No. 23). The Coyotes traded away Strome before he really ever broke out, and Zacha hasn't lived up to his top-5 status for the Devils.
The re-draft for 2015 actually is pretty hard to do because guys like Meier and Hanifin end up getting left out despite growing into legit players who make a positive impact on their teams. Neither were bad picks. The class is just so deep. You've also got a fun and possibly never-ending debate of whether Provorov and Weresnki is the better defenseman to come out of the class. I lean Werenski because of the offensive explosiveness in his game, hence his placement a spot ahead of Provorov in my re-draft.
2016
1. Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews (Auston Matthews)
2. Winnipeg Jets: Patrik Laine (Patrik Laine)
3. Columbus Blue Jackets: Matthew Tkachuk (Pierre-Luc Dubois)
4. Edmonton Oilers: Pierre-Luc Dubois (Jesse Puljujarvi)
5. Vancouver Canucks: Alex DeBrincat (Olli Juolevi)
6. Calgary Flames: Charlie McAvoy (Matthew Tkachuk)
7. Arizona Coyotes: Clayton Keller (Clayton Keller)
8. Buffalo Sabres: Carter Hart (Alexander Nylander)
9. Montreal Canadiens: Mikhail Sergachev (Mikhail Sergachev)
10. Colorado Avalanche: Adam Fox (Tyson Jost)
Other notable talents from 2016: Samuel Girard, Jesper Bratt, Jakob Chychrun and Filip Hronek
This draft still has a year or two before we can really dive in on it, but the top has played out in an interesting way. Matthews has distanced himself from the pack, despite he and Laine really going neck-and-neck heading into the draft and as rookies. It lends itself to the theory that if it's close between two players, take the center.
There's uncertainty left for the 2016 group. The Blue Jackets were largely proved correct for taking Dubois over consensus No. 3 Puljujarvi, who stalled out with Edmonton and spent this past season in Finland. However, Tkachuk, who went No. 6, has really established himself as both a tremendous pest for the opposition and a legit top-6 winger. He actually has a similar points-per-game average to Laine. That's why he gets the nod for Columbus at third overall in our do-over.
Juolevi has gone through injuries and has never made it to the NHL, which is a black mark on an otherwise tremendous past few years of drafting for Vancouver. His replacement at No. 5 was a really tough choice. McAvoy (originally taken 14th), Keller (seventh) and even Hart (48th) could potentially lay claim to it. Ultimately, it has to be DeBrincat. The diminutive forward has become a high-end goal scorer in a league where there is a premium on goals, which is why he moves all the way up from 39th overall.
2017
1. New Jersey Devils: Elias Pettersson (Nico Hischier)
2. Philadelphia Flyers: Cale Makar (Nolan Patrick)
3. Dallas Stars: Miro Heiskanen (Miro Heiskanen)
4. Colorado Avalanche: Nico Hischier (Cale Makar)
5. Vancouver Canucks: Robert Thomas (Elias Pettersson)
6. Vegas Golden Knights: Martin Necas (Cody Glass)
7. New York Rangers: Nick Suzuki (Lias Andersson)
8. Buffalo Sabres: Nolan Patrick (Casey Mittelstadt)
9. Detroit Red Wings: Cody Glass (Michael Rasmussen)
10. Florida Panthers: Filip Chytil (Owen Tippett)
Other notable talents from 2017: Kailer Yamamoto, Henri Jokiharju, Drake Batherson, Emil Bemstrom, Alexandre Texier, Nicolas Hague, Mario Ferraro, Morgan Frost and Erik Brannstrom
A little more patience is required to fully evaluate this draft, but what we've seen in two seasons from Pettersson only enhances the idea that he is going to be an absolute superstar in this game. His skill level is head and shoulders above that of anyone else in this class, overriding the two-way abilities of the actual No. 1 pick in Hischier for the re-draft top spot.
Makar, originally taken at No. 4, is less than a season into his career, but he has all the makings of a game-breaking defenseman who should be a long-term No. 1. Then it's hard to argue with the level of play Heiskanen brings to the table as another potential major minutes defenseman. And it's hard to drop Hischier even just to the fourth spot because I think he's a major impact player and will be for a long time. Not a bad quartet of talent to headline the class.
Patrick's health remains a concern, and we just don't know exactly what his long-term projection is anymore. But he remains a top-10 selection even amid those issues. But there's a lot of time left to figure out just how good this class is.
2018
1. Buffalo Sabres: Rasmus Dahlin (Rasmus Dahlin)
2. Carolina Hurricanes: Andrei Svechnikov (Andrei Svechnikov)
3. Montreal Canadiens: Quinn Hughes (Jesperi Kotkaniemi)
4. Ottawa Senators: Brady Tkachuk (Brady Tkachuk)
5. Arizona Coyotes: Barrett Hayton (Barrett Hayton)
6. Detroit Red Wings: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (Filip Zadina)
7. Vancouver Canucks: Filip Zadina (Quinn Hughes)
8. Chicago Blackhawks: Adam Boqvist (Adam Boqvist)
9. New York Rangers: Noah Dobson (Vitali Kravtsov)
10. Edmonton Oilers: Joel Farabee (Evan Bouchard)
Other notable talents from 2018: Rasmus Sandin, Isac Lundestrom and Martin Kaut
I'm awfully tempted to throw Hughes at No. 1 because of his incredible rookie season and how he appears to play the game in a way that is almost completely his own. That said, it's too early for me to bail on Dahlin, who also has been impressive. We need to remind ourselves he's not even 20 years old and still adjusting to North American hockey.
I'd also have a hard time convincing Carolina to make a change at No. 2, as Svechnikov's year-to-year growth has been substantial. We'll need more time to evaluate the 2018 class, but I think Hughes has really established himself as a rising star in the game, and there's still a chance he hops the two players I have ahead of him in this re-draft.
2019
1. New Jersey Devils: Jack Hughes (Jack Hughes)
2. New York Rangers: Kaapo Kakko (Kaapo Kakko)
3. Chicago Blackhawks: Kirby Dach (Kirby Dach)
4. Colorado Avalanche: Trevor Zegras (Bowen Byram)
5. Los Angeles Kings: Dylan Cozens (Alex Turcotte)
6. Detroit Red Wings: Bowen Byram (Moritz Seider)
7. Buffalo Sabres: Cole Caufield (Dylan Cozens)
8. Edmonton Oilers: Moritz Seider (Philip Broberg)
9. Anaheim Ducks: Alex Newhook (Trevor Zegras)
10. Vancouver Canucks: Alex Turcotte (Vasily Podkolzin)
We didn't get a full first season to evaluate the 2019 class, but we do have a little more intel than we did when they were drafted. That led to two slight changes in the top 5: climbs from Zegras and Cozens.
Interestingly enough, I think a lot of the players in this first round underachieved based on projections coming out of last season. Hughes, Kakko and Dach all found the NHL learning curve steep, while some others didn't really live up to their draft-plus-one expectations at lower levels. Still, if we're looking years out, I think all three of those top guys could be massive impact players.
This class still has so much to like about it and with only three players in this group becoming NHL regulars immediately after their draft, we'll have plenty of time to dissect this crew in the coming years.
Takeaways from re-drafting the 2010-19 decade
To wrap this up, I wanted to take a broader look at how 10 years of do-overs would effect the league today. Since this exercise didn't look at needs on a year-to-year basis, and we're simply going best player available in a given year, it might have teams deeper at some positions than others. But how did these re-drafts alter teams as they're currently constructed?
The Oilers' run of first overall picks started great with Taylor Hall, but we re-drafted two of the other four and took away their third-overall selection in 2014 of Leon Draisaitl as the new No. 1 that year. The result was Edmonton getting Hall, Nikita Kucherov, Filip Forsberg, Max Domi, Dylan Larkin, Connor McDavid, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Joel Farabee and Moritz Seider. Now, you'd have to assume the team would target a defenseman in one of those drafts regardless of hindsight, but if you just stuck to best player available, you end up with three Hart Trophy winners, possibly the best center depth in the NHL and a potential foundational defenseman. Not bad!
It was kind of interesting watching how this altered the Lightning. In this exercise, they lose Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Brayden Point, but gain Seth Jones and Mark Stone. Those are significant losses, but maybe not deadly considering the return. Neither Point nor Kucherov was picked inside the first round. This team has thrived on value picks becoming core pieces.
The Sabres are one of the teams spinning their wheels toward the bottom of the league, and you wonder what would've happened if their drafts went a little differently. In the re-draft, they keep Jack Eichel and Rasmus Dahlin, but gain Jake Guentzel, David Pastrnak and Carter Hart to replace Rasmus Ristolainen, Sam Reinhart and Alex Nylander. None of those picks looked out of whack at the time of those draft seasons, but they sting with the benefit of hindsight.
Teams are afraid of drafting goalies in the first round and rightfully so, but we had five goaltenders make the re-drafted top 10s. Goalies carry such huge value but remain very difficult to project out and often take years to develop. This exercise certainly isn't meant to advocate for drafting goalies with high picks, unless you have the utmost confidence in your projection -- but even then, extreme caution probably carries the day for that decision.