No, it's not a big anniversary of the 2013 NHL draft. But the Colorado Avalanche and Columbus Blue Jackets just pulled off huge upsets in the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs, so we got to thinking about one of the more interesting drafts in recent years. After all, that 2013 draft year started with Nathan MacKinnon vs. Seth Jones.
It was also the first year I had public draft rankings, then with CBS Sports and only 60 players deep. One of the things you notice is how shallow a draft it turned out to be. Only 15 players from this class have surpassed the 100-career-points threshold. Twenty-six of the 211 players selected have surpassed the 200-career-game mark, and 109 have appeared in at least one NHL game. It reminds you how hard it is to make the NHL and stay there. For most draft picks, their highest value is on the day they're drafted.
Let's remember the wild 2013 draft, featuring a pair of stars who have led their playoff teams to improbable trips to the second round. I provide regrades, as well as my ranking at the time of the draft for full context.
The top four
1. Colorado Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon, C
Regrade: A+ | 2013 rank: 3
After you're finished pointing and laughing at the hilarity of having MacKinnon third on my final draft board that year, we can all agree that he has spent the past two seasons as one of the league's best forwards. His performance against the Flames was a small sample of what beast mode looks like for MacKinnon. It's clear that he is the best player in this draft class, and there's a chance he'll end up with a Hart Trophy or two to solidify it.
2. Florida Panthers: Aleksander Barkov, C
Regrade: A+ | 2013 rank: 5
Barkov has grown into one of the elite two-way centers in the game. Although this year wasn't his best defensively, it was his best offensively, with 96 points. He impacts the game in so many ways that you sometimes forget how skilled he is. Why was he fifth on my board? I had some concerns about Barkov's upside. He was already so big and strong that his production in Liiga didn't strike me. But his 48 points that season remains the record for a U18 player in Liiga history.
3. Tampa Bay Lightning: Jonathan Drouin, C/W
Regrade: C | 2013 rank: 2
Tampa was enamored with Drouin's skill. He was a human highlight reel in his draft season, and I hadn't seen many players with his skill level at that age. He finished with 30 more points than MacKinnon the prior year in just five more games played. Even though MacKinnon was a more complete player, I viewed Drouin as a potential perennial Art Ross contender. But he still hasn't seized the potential, and the Lightning traded him to Montreal for Mikhail Sergachev. Drouin matched his career best this season with 53 points.
4. Nashville Predators: Seth Jones, D
Regrade: A | 2013 rank: 1
Jones is going to play in this league for a long time. He's probably going to wear a letter for most of his career and might even win a couple Norris Trophies. The Preds seem to be doing OK without him, thanks to their defensive depth, but Jones might be the most important piece in the resurgence of the Blue Jackets. And the best is yet to come in his career. While I regret having MacKinnon at No. 3, I have no regret in having Jones as my No. 1 prospect that year. Until Rasmus Dahlin came along, he was the best defensive prospect I'd seen since I began covering the amateur ranks.
Franchise stars
Players who have become significant players for the teams that drafted them.
6. Calgary Flames: Sean Monahan, C
Regrade: A- | 2013 rank: 7
Monahan has been a staple for the Flames and just posted the best season of his career, with 34 goals and 82 points in 78 games. In fact, he is the leading goal scorer of this draft class, and he has three 30-plus-goal seasons and 172 points in his career.
7. Edmonton Oilers: Darnell Nurse, D
Regrade: B+ | 2013 rank: 11
Nurse has been one of the few bright spots for the Oilers since he joined the team. He is coming off a career season in which he posted 41 points, including 10 goals.
8. Buffalo Sabres: Rasmus Ristolainen, D
Regrade: B- | 2013 rank: 8
Despite the complaints about his defensive game, which are warranted, Ristolainen has four consecutive seasons with 41 or more points. As I did during his draft season, I believe there's still potential there, but he can't be the guy.
9. Vancouver Canucks (via NJ): Bo Horvat, C
Regrade: B+ | 2013 rank: 13
The Canucks traded Cory Schneider away to acquire this pick, and while their goaltending remains somewhat unsettled, Horvat has been the team's No. 1 center, provides two-way value and has often led the team in scoring. His 222 points rank sixth in the draft class.
13. Winnipeg Jets: Josh Morrissey, D
Regrade: B+ | 2013 rank: 24
I liked Morrissey's mobility and puck movement skills, but I remember wondering in his draft season if he had enough offensive upside to be a contributor on an NHL team. He gets a lot of tough defensive matchups for the Jets and still produces at a respectable clip.
20. Detroit Red Wings: Anthony Mantha, RW
Regrade: B | 2013 rank: 17
Mantha was a goal-scoring machine in junior, but he has been an average goal scorer in the NHL. That's still good enough, especially in the lower third of the draft. He had a career-best 25 goals in just 67 games this season.
Solid NHL players
Players who have managed to become everyday players and contributors, whether or not they're with their drafting team.
5. Carolina Hurricanes: Elias Lindholm, C
Regrade: C+ | 2013 rank: 6
Lindholm never quite found his footing in Carolina, but the Flames have to be happy with how things went, considering they now have both Lindholm and Monahan. Lindholm shattered previous career highs with 27 goals, 51 assists and 78 points in 81 games this season.
12. Arizona Coyotes: Max Domi, C
Regrade: B- | 2013 rank: 10
Domi debuted with the Coyotes two years after the draft and was sensational as a rookie. He looked like a long-term piece for the club, but two downward-trending seasons led the Coyotes to trade him. Like Drouin, Domi has since thrived with the Canadiens, posting 72 points last season.
15. New York Islanders: Ryan Pulock, D
Regrade: C+ | 2013 rank: 12
It took Pulock a while to get an opportunity with the Isles, but he's been a full-timer for the last two seasons. He still has the big shot with which I was enamored in his draft year, but he's also become a more mature defender.
23. Washington Capitals: Andre Burakovsky, LW
Regrade: B+ | 2013 rank: 21
Burakovsky was a tantalizing prospect during his draft season. He played in Sweden's second division and had all sorts of skill but battled consistency issues. That has mostly continued in his NHL career, but he's still a Stanley Cup champion.
26. Anaheim Ducks: Shea Theodore, D
Regrade: B | 2013 rank: 35
The Ducks got a really nice piece in this draft but didn't get to enjoy him for very long. They dealt Theodore for expansion draft considerations to the Golden Knights after 53 contests with the Ducks over two seasons.
Everyday NHLers
Serviceable players who have managed to find everyday roles, if not starring ones.
10. Dallas Stars: Valeri Nichushkin, RW (Regrade: D, 2013 rank: 4)
14. Columbus Blue Jackets: Alexander Wennberg, C (Regrade: B-, 2013 rank: 18)
16. Buffalo Sabres: Nikita Zadorov, D (Regrade: C, 2013 rank: 14)
21. Toronto Maple Leafs: Frederik Gauthier, C (Regrade: B-, 2013 rank: 36)
29. Dallas Stars: Jason Dickinson, C (Regrade: C, 2013 rank: 44)
30. Chicago Blackhawks: Ryan Hartman, RW (Regrade: C+, 2013 rank: 29)
Nichushkin was a sight to behold in his draft year, but he was a nonfactor this season after two years abroad trying to find his game in the KHL. I thought he was a steal at 10, but it has not worked out. Wennberg is a solid playmaker, but some downward-trending seasons have caused concern. Zadorov had all of the physical tools to be a big-time defenseman in the NHL, but he has never quite put it together offensively. Hartman plays with snarl and has carved out a role for himself in the NHL. Gauthier and Dickinson are not much more than depth guys.
The busts
Players who didn't quite work out.
11. Philadelphia Flyers: Samuel Morin, D (Regrade: F, 2013 rank: 39)
17. Ottawa Senators: Curtis Lazar, C/W (Regrade: C, 2013 rank: 26)
18. San Jose Sharks: Mirco Mueller, D (Regrade: C, 2013 rank: 31)
19. Columbus Blue Jackets: Kerby Rychel, LW (Regrade: D, 2013 rank: 34)
22. Calgary Flames: Emile Poirier, LW (Regrade: F, 2013 rank: N/A)
24. Vancouver Canucks: Hunter Shinkaruk, C/W (Regrade: F, 2013 rank: 9)
25. Montreal Canadiens: Michael McCarron, RW (Regrade: D+, 2013 rank: 32)
27. Columbus Blue Jackets: Marko Dano, C (Regrade: C+, 2013 rank: 43)
28. Calgary Flames: Morgan Klimchuk, LW (Regrade: D-, 2013 rank: 37)
Morin has appeared in just eight NHL games the past three seasons. Lazar was a polarizing player in his draft season, and those who expressed concerns about his overall offensive upside were proven right. While there was a lot to like about Mueller in his draft year, his offensive tools were average, and that has shown as a pro. Rychel has never really established himself as an NHL player and is on his fourth organization in three years. Poirier played in eight NHL games and registered one assist.
I was especially intrigued by Shinkaruk's puck skills, but he is on his third NHL organization and had just 10 points in 54 AHL games this season. (He's one of my bigger all-time swing-and-misses). While I don't fault the Habs for taking a shot at McCarron, the hockey sense never came around. Dano was one of my favorite under-the-radar players in this draft season, but he hasn't panned out. Of the players selected in this first round, Klimchuk has appeared in the fewest NHL games: one.
Best value picks
1. Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh Penguins, 77th overall
He arrived later to the NHL than many of the top prospects, but in 204 games, he has averaged 0.77 points per game (fourth in the class). He also now has a 40-goal season and a Stanley Cup win.
2. Brett Pesce, Carolina Hurricanes, 66th overall
This reliable, often underrated, top-four defenseman has been a key piece in the resurgence of the Hurricanes. Pesce had the most productive season of his career with 29 points in 2018-19. His main value is in the way he defends.
3. Pavel Buchnevich, New York Rangers, 75th overall
Buchnevich arrived late after spending a few extra years in Russia. In the 179 games he has played, however, he has averaged better than half a point per game and has seemingly taken steps forward in each of his first three NHL seasons.
4. Andreas Johnsson, Toronto Maple Leafs, 202nd overall
Finally a full-time NHLer, Johnsson has taken a big step forward in the past year. He's a depth player for the Maple Leafs, and he provided secondary scoring and speed to their lineup.
5. Will Butcher, Colorado Avalanche, 123rd overall
The Avs never ended up signing Butcher, who went the free-agent route and flourished as a rookie with the Devils. His second year was more challenging, but he has 74 points in just 159 games.