Scouting is an inexact science. Just look at the years-later reaction to every NHL draft after any given player has a modicum of NHL success, especially those who were drafted outside of the top 10.
"How did he go that low in the draft? How did all of those teams pass on him?"
The fact of the matter is there's so much more that is inexact than just the actual scouting. Development arcs, organizational depth, where a player plays his post-draft years and a host of other things come into account to determine when a player does or does not reach the NHL and how well that player plays once he gets there.
Even so, the initial evaluation of a player before the draft is obviously pretty significant, given the value placed on draft picks and how much good drafting can impact a team's future. The scouting process for everyone in the field -- and even those of us in the media who mimic the process -- is in a constant state of evolution. No scout has a perfect record, but it's often the misses that help formulate and evolve a scout's guidelines for evaluations.
I asked a number of anonymous NHL scouts to reassess players whom they were too low on during their draft seasons. And of course, it wouldn't be fair to do so if I didn't call out my own misses. First, here are some players from around the NHL whom scouts thought they missed on -- and why.
Scout No. 1: Adam Fox, D
A Western Conference scout says: "I didn't think he skated or defended well enough."
The fallout: This was a very common thought, even after Fox's draft season. He was drafted in the third round by the Calgary Flames in 2016 (No. 66), and after being traded twice before reaching the NHL, he's having a great rookie season with the New York Rangers.
Fox has been a quality defender, and his skating has not held him back at the NHL level. He is by no means high-end in either category, but the other things he does well help a lot. His vision and hockey sense, especially offensively, have always been key attributes. And Fox produces.
In his draft year, he set the U.S. National Team Development Program's single-season record for points by a defenseman, with 59 (surpassed last season by Philadelphia Flyers first-rounder Cameron York). Now, points aren't everything, but Fox continued to produce in college and now is doing so in the NHL.
Scout No. 2: Bryan Rust, RW
An Eastern Conference scout says: "He was a high-scoring youth hockey player and went to the NTDP and became a fourth-line, [penalty-kill] guy. Then in his draft year, he became a vital part of that team, but I still thought he'd only be a really good college player. I didn't see NHL."
The fallout: The Pittsburgh Penguins selected Rust 80th overall in the third round in 2010. Rust was a really good college player, spending four years at Notre Dame before playing parts of two seasons bouncing between the NHL and AHL. He soon became a full-timer with the Penguins and now has two Stanley Cup rings. Rust has been a crucial piece for the Penguins, topping 20 goals for the first time in his career this season.
Scout No. 3: Anthony Cirelli, C
An Eastern Conference scout says: "I know a couple of guys who were high on him, and as he improved, you could see [NHL potential]. But not in his draft year."
The fallout: Cirelli is a fairly interesting case and yet another situation in which the Tampa Bay Lightning found a diamond in the rough. He was the 72nd overall pick in the 2015 draft. Cirelli didn't play his age-16 season in the OHL like so many top players do but had an extra year of U18 hockey in the Greater Toronto Hockey League, probably the best youth hockey league in the world. As an OHL rookie in his draft season, he had modest production but also showed good two-way skills and helped the Oshawa Generals win the OHL title and the Memorial Cup. Still, there were a lot of unknowns with him.
Cirelli spent two more seasons in the OHL before another year split between the NHL and AHL. Now he's a high-end, two-way forward in the NHL, with legitimate Selke Trophy aspirations. Those defensive elements were always something he got praise for, but there was valid concern that he didn't have the offensive upside. Cirelli is in the midst of a career year and seems to get better each season at the NHL level.
Scout No. 4: Nick Schmaltz, C
An Eastern Conference scout says: "I certainly always recognized the skill and offense, sense and vision that he has, but I really questioned his drive, two-way play, compete. When things get down and tough, I thought he would shut down, but he's had a good career so far."
The fallout: In 2014, Schmaltz was a polarizing prospect. The same complaints about his game had come up with some of my contacts at the time, and I shared those concerns. Schmaltz was playing in the USHL for the Green Bay Gamblers and produced at a reasonably high level but wasn't necessarily dominant. The Chicago Blackhawks clearly didn't worry as much, as they bet on his skill and took him 20th overall.
After two years at the University of North Dakota, where he won a national championship as a particularly effective scorer as a sophomore, he signed with Chicago. He had 52 points in his second season and ended up being traded to the Arizona Coyotes, with whom he has been effective when healthy. One of the things the Schmaltz case can teach us is how a player can grow and mature in certain areas, such as play away from the puck and being assertive in the hard areas of the ice. It's a lot harder to coach up skill to the level of Schmaltz.
Scout No. 5: Victor Mete, D
An Eastern Conference scout says: "It was hard to not like him when you watched him, but you just didn't know how it would translate. He didn't even give you the feel he was going to quarterback a top power-play unit when watching him in London. And then you ask yourself, how many 5-foot-9 defensemen are playing? I didn't give him enough credit for his efficient two-way game."
The fallout: Mete hasn't necessarily become a star, but he has carved out a nice career for a fourth-round draft pick (2016, No. 100). His skating was at such a high level as a junior player, and that always stuck out to me more than his size. That said, he did not produce at an exceptionally high level, and it's rare for sub-6-foot defenders to get a long look if they aren't putting up points.
Mete reached the NHL at 19 with the Montreal Canadiens, so the defensive elements of his game were particularly advanced. He was a really interesting case in his draft year, but he continued to push through the noise and has made himself a valuable piece to the puzzle for a young Montreal team with some intrigue.
My own misses
OK, it's time for me to look in the mirror. These are my two biggest misses that I'd love to have back, both coming with my first public ranking back in 2013 -- a.k.a the MacKinnon draft (for another media outlet). Here goes ...
Jonathan Drouin over Nathan MacKinnon
I cringe on this one, even if it was my first real crack at putting together a big list. It's only one spot, but I had Drouin at No. 2 and MacKinnon at No. 3 (behind Seth Jones). Although consensus continued to build toward MacKinnon throughout that year, I remained steadfast in my belief that Seth Jones was the best prospect in that draft from start to finish. I don't know that I ever allowed myself to think otherwise because I had seen Jones many times, going back to when he was a 15-year-old. I had never really seen a defenseman like him in my four prior years working in and around junior hockey. He was a rare commodity.
Meanwhile, I thought Jonathan Drouin was going to be the next Patrick Kane. His highlight-reel plays were majestic, he had more points than MacKinnon -- the pair torched the QMJHL as members of the Halifax Mooseheads -- and I thought his skill had more upside. And so, I had MacKinnon as the third-best prospect in the 2013 draft. The Colorado Avalanche of course took MacKinnon at No. 1, and Aleksander Barkov went second to the Florida Panthers. Drouin was the third pick (Tampa Bay), and Jones went fourth to the Nashville Predators.
At the time, I wrote of MacKinnon: "He's an explosive talent. There's no two ways around it. MacKinnon very well could be the No. 1 pick, but I still like Jones and Drouin just enough better to put them ahead. It is very, very close, though. What MacKinnon did at the Memorial Cup was him showing his best. That's what everyone hoped to see, and he delivered. He is perhaps the draft's best skater, has a nose for the net and some grit to his elite offensive game. MacKinnon is a special player and will make whichever team he goes to instantly better."
I didn't think MacKinnon was clearly third best, but I believed at the time that the three best players in the draft were especially close. It didn't take long to find out that I overvalued Drouin's skill against MacKinnon's all-around game and competitiveness. Even though I knew MacKinnon was explosive, I undersold how much that element mattered in differentiating the two players.
It took a few more years for me to place MacKinnon ahead of Jones, who I thought was more consistent earlier in his career. But the past three seasons of MacKinnon's career showed me how wrong I was to have the Avs star anywhere but No. 1 that year. He is a franchise-altering talent who is keying one of the top teams in the Western Conference.
I still think Jones is the best defense prospect I've seen in his draft year, though Buffalo's Rasmus Dahlin is a close second. That statement spans the past 11 years of my professional career. I also believe Jones is going to win a Norris Trophy before his career is finished. I can live with making Jones my top prospect in 2013. But the Drouin one, however, is what makes MacKinnon at No. 3 look particularly iffy in hindsight.
Valeri Nichushkin at No. 4 ... ahead of Aleksander Barkov
Man, this one stings, too. In that same draft, I had Nichushkin as the No. 4 prospect ahead of Barkov (No. 5).
At that time in my career, I was still adjusting to evaluating European pro league talent. I had seen Barkov play in previous years at World U18 Championships and thought he was exceptional, but I didn't love his skating and wondered if he were just a physical talent without as much upside. I didn't feel the same way about Nichushkin, who was just so much bigger than his age peers.
Nichushkin performed at a high level in the KHL playoffs before joining Russia at the World U18 Championship and was absolutely dominating every game he played in, both physically and with skill. I was in attendance for that tournament and thought Nichushkin was the next big Russian star in the league.
That never came to fruition, and Barkov is a top-10 center in the NHL today.
What I learned was a better understanding of the context of professional leagues in Europe. I use a lot more historical comparables today for just a bit of extra context when looking at European prospects. Barkov, for instance, had an unprecedented season for a player his age in that league by a significant margin, and that level of production at that age often precedes a higher rate of production as an NHL player.
Nichushkin ended up having a comparable rookie season to Barkov's. They both played in the 2014 Olympics, too, but as we've seen in the following years, their careers diverged significantly from that point.
That first draft ranking was not great at the top, but it was reasonable beyond that. I was right about a few guys whom I had higher than they went, too. But the ones I got wrong are the ones that really helped instruct my process today.
I used to chase skill above all else, which is why I was so high on Drouin. He was -- and still is -- so gifted with the puck. But there were other factors that I downgraded that greatly favored MacKinnon. These days, I'm putting a much higher emphasis on skating, hockey sense, competitiveness and play away from the puck while still giving skill level a significant value. It isn't an "above all else" kind of thing for me now. It also helps that now I get to see many more games live than I did in 2013. There's a lot of nuance that gets lost on film, though I still lean on it heavily for extra views on players.
We all make some mistakes along the way, but I'm not sure I would've refined my process to this point without those early misses to learn from.