As projected, an experienced and accomplished new coaching staff helped the Minnesota Wild vault up the standings from 87 points in 2015-16 to a franchise record 106 points in 2016-17. And, so far in 2017-18, the Vegas Golden Knights are demonstrating the wisdom of filling coaching vacancies with proven names.
Using a methodology introduced for the 2009-10 season, and explained in more detail in our 2015-16 edition, it is possible to objectively measure the experience and past success of each team's coaching staff at a high level.
How do things shape up for the 2017-18 season in the Western Conference? We'll examine those 15 teams here and place each staff into a specific tier:
Tier 1: Accomplished
Tier 2: Experienced
Tier 3: Balanced
Tier 4: Inexperienced or underachieving
Plotting every Western staff
Overall, the results of our analysis are easiest to observe on the following chart, which features a weighted average of each coaching staff's combined experience on the horizontal axis and an estimate of the success their teams have enjoyed on the vertical axis. The most accomplished coaching staffs will therefore be at the top, the most experienced will be on the right, while those with the shortest lists of credentials are toward the bottom-left corner.
To briefly recap the formula, experience is the combined games of NHL head-coaching experience by anyone on the staff plus half-credit for experience in the AHL, ECHL, Canadian Major Junior Leagues (OHL, WHL and QMJHL) and NCAA Division I. There's also a 25-game bonus for each season as an assistant coach.
As for the vertical axis, the success metric is based on how a head coach's team fared in the standings, compared to the previous season. To be fair to those coaching particularly good or bad teams, the previous season's results are regressed 35 percent toward league average before the comparison is made, so a head coach must keep a good team good or help improve a bad team by more than it would have improved without him at the helm.
Tier 1: Accomplished
The teams at the top of the chart are those that have placed the highest value on previous success when assembling the coaching staff. They are likely to extract the full potential of their rosters, and their teams should have their expectations moved up a position or two in the standings -- if possible.
Note: Coaches in italics are new for 2017-18, or had their interim tag removed for this season.
Minnesota Wild
Staff: Bruce Boudreau (head), John Anderson, Darby Hendrickson, Bob Woods, Bob Mason (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,863 games
Standings points added: 155 points
With the addition of one of the most experienced and accomplished coaches in both the NHL (Boudreau) and the AHL (Anderson) to its staff, Minnesota vaulted from one of the lower tiers to the top of the pack last season, and moved up the standings by 19 points to its best finish in franchise history. However, the knock against Boudreau has always been a lack of getting over the hump in the postseason; last season, the Wild were brushed aside in five games by the Blues. Can he overcome that reputation this season?
Dallas Stars
Staff: Ken Hitchcock (head), Rick Wilson, Stu Barnes, Jeff Reese (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,891 games
Standings points added: 140 points
Frustrated by a 30-point plunge in the standings, Dallas GM Jim Nill made significant changes to almost every part of the team's structure, including behind the bench. The last time Hitchcock came to town, he improved the team by 38 points in the standings. In fact, Hitchcock tends to have that impact everywhere he goes, including Philadelphia, Columbus and St. Louis. Expect a big improvement for the Stars this season.
Tier 2: Experienced
There is no substitute for experience. The teams on the far right side of the chart are those with the strongest coaching staffs who have repeatedly proved themselves over the years, and are most likely to produce consistent and predictable results every season.
Chicago Blackhawks
Staff: Joel Quenneville (head), Kevin Dineen, Don Granato, Jimmy Waite (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,660 games
Standings points added: 94 points
The Blackhawks might not have one of the largest coaching staffs, but it is among the most experienced. Quenneville leads active coaches in NHL games coached, and both Dineen and Granato are both in the top five in AHL games coached, among active assistants.
Anaheim Ducks
Staff: Randy Carlyle (head), Trent Yawney, Rich Preston, Steve Konowalchuk, Mark Morrison, Sudarshan Maharaj (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,769 games
Standings points added: 28 points
In the hopes of achieving more postseason success, the first-place Ducks boldly replaced one of the most accomplished coaches in the regular season, Bruce Boudreau, with the architect of Anaheim's 2007 Stanley Cup, Carlyle, heading into 2016-17. Not only did the Ducks still manage to retain their division crown, they advanced to the Western Conference finals for the second time since their 2007 triumph.
Tier 3: Balanced
The following six teams have put an emphasis on a diversity of experience in their coaching staff, with a track record of success in at least a few of those teams, leagues and situations. As a result, they can be trusted to perform close to expectations -- and possibly slightly above.
Nashville Predators
Staff: Peter Laviolette (head), Kevin McCarthy, Dan Muse, Ben Vaderklok (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,883 games
Standings points added: 75 points
It might have surprised some fans to see the Predators in the Stanley Cup Final in 2016-17, but that's also where Laviolette guided the Philadelphia Flyers in 2009-10, and the Carolina Hurricanes in 2005-06 -- the last of which was victorious. Kevin McCarthy adds over 20 years of experience as an NHL assistant, and six seasons as a head coach in the AHL.
Edmonton Oilers
Staff: Todd McLellan (head), Jay Woodcroft, Jim Johnson, Ian Herbers, Dustin Schwartz (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,878 games
Standings points added: 69 points
It took until the second season, but the value of having an experienced coaching staff finally revealed itself, as the Oilers topped 100 points for the first time in 30 years, and reached the playoffs for the first time in over 10. Unsurprisingly, the entire staff was kept intact for the 2017-18 season, and expectations are higher as well.
Calgary Flames
Staff: Glen Gulutzan (head), Dave Cameron, Paul Jerrard, Martin Gelinas, Jordan Sigalet (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,829 games
Standings points added: 52 points
The first season for Calgary's all-new coaching staff can be classified as a success, as they immediately bounced back to their 2014-15 finish, with 45 wins and a playoff appearance. This staff's list of NHL credentials might not be among the league's most impressive, but Gulutzan previously distinguished himself in his six seasons with the ECHL's Las Vegas Wranglers, and Cameron is arguably one of the top 10 coaches in the OHL's long history.
San Jose Sharks
Staff: Peter DeBoer (head), Rob Zettler, Steve Spott, Johan Hedberg (Asst and Goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,888 games
Standings points added: 46 points
In 2015-16, San Jose's staff destroyed the long-standing perception that OHL coaching success does not translate to the NHL, with a 98-point finish, and the franchise's first trip to the Stanley Cup Final. In 2016-17, they maintained their regular-season success but were eliminated in the first round. In the summer, they lost Bob Boughner, who is now the head coach of the Florida Panthers, and brought back Zettler to replace him as an assistant.
Vegas Golden Knights
Staff: Gerard Gallant (head), Ryan McGill, Ryan Craig, Mike Kelly, David Prior (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,676 games
Standings points added: 53 points
Unlike most teams with recent coaching vacancies, Vegas wisely chose an experienced and accomplished coaching staff. Most notably, Gallant has had consistent success in both the NHL and the QMJHL, and Ryan McGill has been an effective head coach in the AHL, the WHL, and briefly in the OHL. Situations that this staff can't handle will be few and far between.
St. Louis Blues
Staff: Mike Yeo (head), Craig Berube, Darryl Sydor, Steve Ott, David Alexander (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,275 games
Standings points added: 37 points
Though his results in five seasons with the Wild were quite average, Yeo had a white-hot 22-8-2 record after taking over as head coach of the Blues midway through last season, and is off to a great start in 2017-18. His all-new staff includes his former Wild assistant Darryl Sydor, and former Flyers coach Craig Berube, who has been effective in two seasons as an NHL head coach.
Tier 4: The inexperienced or underachieving
For whatever reason, some teams are not in a position to attract experienced and accomplished coaches, or have deliberately chosen to go off the board and build their staffs around the untried. Given how few teams in Tier 4 wind up making the playoffs, it's not an ideal situation in which to remain over the long term.
Los Angeles Kings
Staff: John Stevens (head), Dave Lowry, Pierre Turgeon, Bill Ranford (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,061 games
Standings points added: 21 points
John Stevens has over three seasons worth of experience as a head coach in the NHL, and six in the AHL, but his career coaching metrics are negative in both cases. However, the entire staff's numbers were boosted with the wise addition of assistant Dave Lowry, who has been among the WHL's most effective coaches for quite some time.
Vancouver Canucks
Staff: Travis Green (head), Doug Jarvis, Newell Brown, Manny Malhotra, Nolan Baumgartner, Dan Cloutier (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,668 games
Standings points added: 9 points
Once again, Vancouver has filled its coaching vacancy with a first-time NHL coach, Travis Green. To mitigate this, Vancouver wisely retained Doug Jarvis and added Newell Brown, who have a combined 45 years of experience as NHL assistants. All together, the three coaches have a combined 10 seasons of experience as head coaches in the AHL, including Green's past four as head coach of Vancouver's AHL affiliate, the Utica Comets.
Winnipeg Jets
Staff: Paul Maurice (head), Charlie Huddy, Jamie Kompon, Todd Woodcroft, Wade Flaherty (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,417 games
Standings points added: -37 points
With so many organizations quick to pull the trigger after a disappointing season, it was quite remarkable to see Winnipeg's coaching staff extended. In particular, Paul Maurice is a highly respected coach with 19 seasons of NHL head coaching experience, but his teams have made the playoffs only five times. Whether it's Winnipeg, Carolina, Toronto, or the old Hartford Whalers, Maurice-coached teams have usually slipped in the standings. There's unquestionably a wealth of experience and reputation on Winnipeg's bench, but there isn't a lot of data that suggests a breakout season.
Arizona Coyotes
Staff: Rick Tocchet (head), John MacLean, Scott Allen, John Slaney, Jon Elkin (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,210 games
Standings points added: -32 points
After eight seasons under Dave Tippett, it was finally time for a change of direction in Arizona. Like most teams this summer, the Coyotes went off the board in their hunt for a replacement, and selected a coach without an abundance of experience or prior success as a head coach in Tocchet. However, Tocchet does have experience as an assistant with four different NHL teams, including the Coyotes in 2005-06, and the two-time Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins between 2014-15 to 2016-17.
Colorado Avalanche
Staff: Jared Bednar (head), Ray Bennett, Nolan Pratt, Jussi Parkkila (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 920 games
Standings points added: -27 points
To be fair, the sudden resignation of former Avs coach Patrick Roy didn't give new coach Bednar a lot of time to prepare for his first NHL assignment, nor was he provided with a particularly strong roster. However, a little bit more experience behind the bench might have helped avoid some of last season's more embarrassing mistakes, for which assistants Tim Army and Dave Farrish apparently took the fall. This season, Bennett, a long-time Kings and Blues assistant, was hired to assist Bednar.