Coaching can have a huge impact on a team's fortunes, as demonstrated by the Pittsburgh Penguins when they chose Mike Sullivan as a replacement midway through the 2015-16 season. Since then, they have dominated during the regular season and won the Stanley Cup in back-to-back seasons. Is there a way to anticipate which teams might get a boost from their coaching staff in 2017-18?
Using a methodology introduced for the 2009-10 season, and explained in more detail in our 2015-16 edition, it is possible to objectively measure the experience and past success of each team's coaching staff at a high level.
How do things shape up for the 2017-18 season in the Eastern Conference? We'll examine those 16 teams here and place each staff into a specific tier:
Tier 1: Accomplished
Tier 2: Experienced
Tier 3: Balanced
Tier 4: Inexperienced or underachieving
Plotting every Eastern staff
Overall, the results of our analysis are easiest to observe on the following chart, which features a weighted average of each coaching staff's combined experience on the horizontal axis and an estimate of the success their teams have enjoyed on the vertical axis. The most accomplished coaching staffs will therefore be at the top, the most experienced will be on the right, while those with the shortest lists of credentials are toward the bottom-left corner.
To briefly recap the formula, experience is the combined games of NHL head-coaching experience by anyone on the staff plus half-credit for experience in the AHL, ECHL, Canadian Major Junior Leagues (OHL, WHL and QMJHL) and NCAA Division I. There's also a 25-game bonus for each season as an assistant coach.
As for the vertical axis, the success metric is based on how a head coach's team fared in the standings, compared to the previous season. To be fair to those coaching particularly good or bad teams, the previous season's results are regressed 35 percent toward league average before the comparison is made, so a head coach must keep a good team good or help improve a bad team by more than it would have improved without him at the helm.
Tier 1: Accomplished
The teams at the top of the chart are those that have placed the highest value on prior success when assembling the coaching staff. They are likely to extract the full potential of their rosters, and their teams should have their expectations moved up a position or two in the standings -- if possible.
Note: Coaches in italics are new for 2017-18, or had their interim tag removed for this season.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Staff: Mike Sullivan (head), Jacques Martin, Mark Recchi, Sergei Gonchar, Mike Buckley (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,165 games
Standings points added: 96 points
The Stanley Cup champions are the perfect example of the potential impact of coaching. The Penguins were outside the playoff picture when Mike Sullivan took over from Mike Johnston on Dec. 12, 2015, but from that point forward they have been the most dominant team in the league, claiming back-to-back Stanley Cup victories. This summer, they lost Rick Tocchet to the Arizona Coyotes, and replaced him with first-time coach -- and Hockey Hall of Famer -- Mark Recchi.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Staff: Mike Babcock (head), Jim Hiller, D.J. Smith, Andrew Brewer, Steve Briere (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,291 games
Standings points added: 90 points
As projected last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs took a huge stride forward, and improved from 69 points in the standings to 95, and won 40 games for the first time in a decade. Auston Matthews gets a lot of the credit for putting an end to the team's dark days, but some of it should be shared with one of the league's strongest coaching staffs.
Washington Capitals
Staff: Barry Trotz (head), Lane Lambert, Todd Reirden, Blaine Forsythe, Mitch Korn (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,631 games
Standings points added: 78 points
Keeping a great team at the top of the standings can be as big a challenge as helping it climb up there in the first place. Under Trotz, the Capitals maintained their dominant position in 2016-17 with 118 points and their seventh division title in the past 10 seasons. Having lost a lot of the team's top players in this summer's cap crunch, keeping this team at the top of the standings could be the greatest challenge Trotz & Co. have faced yet.
Ottawa Senators
Staff: Guy Boucher (head), Marc Crawford, Rob Cookson, Martin Raymond, Pierre Groulx (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,425 games
Standings points added: 80 points
As projected, Ottawa's newly hired and highly experienced coaching staff helped guide the team to new heights in 2016-17, coming within a single double-overtime goal of advancing to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in franchise history. Boucher & Co. can be trusted to get maximum value out of whatever roster GM Pierre Dorion assembles.
Tier 2: Experienced
There is no substitute for experience. The teams on the far right side of the chart are those with the strongest coaching staffs who have repeatedly proved themselves over the years, and are most likely to produce consistent and predictable results every season. In the East, there is just one team in this category.
New York Rangers
Staff: Alain Vigneault (head), Lindy Ruff, Scott Arniel, Darryl Williams, Jeff Beukeboom, Benoit Allaire (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 4,364 games
Standings points added: 37 points
With the addition of Lindy Ruff, who coached the Dallas Stars in 2016-17, the Rangers have climbed to the top of the pack in terms of overall staff experience. This staff may not add as many points as those in Tier 1, but don't expect very many mistakes due to inexperience behind the Rangers' bench.
Tier 3: Balanced
The following six teams have placed an emphasis on a diversity of experience in their coaching staff, with a track record of success in at least a few of those teams, leagues and situations. As a result, they can be trusted to perform close to expectations -- and possibly slightly above.
Philadelphia Flyers
Staff: Dave Hakstol (head), Joe Mullen, Gord Murphy, Ian Laperriere, Kris Knoblauch, Kim Dillabaugh (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,697 games
Standings points added: 69 points
The Flyers have made some shrewd off-the-board decisions behind the bench. They were one of the few teams that went to the NCAA to find their coach, Dave Hakstol, for the 2015-16 season, and this summer they added one of the most accomplished young coaches to the staff, Kris Knoblauch, formerly of the OHL's Erie Otters. With one more season of NHL experience, they could soon be reclassified into Tier 1.
Montreal Canadiens
Staff: Claude Julien (head), Kirk Muller, Daniel Lacroix, J.J. Daigneault, Stephane Waite (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,183 games
Standings points added: 61 points
For the second time in franchise history, the Canadiens replaced coach Michel Therrien with Claude Julien. The early results haven't been promising, but Julien has a track record of success in both the NHL and the AHL, Muller is one of the league's more able assistants, and Waite is arguably the best goalie coach. Give them time to turn things around.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Staff: Jon Cooper (head), Rick Bowness, Todd Richards, Brad Lauer, Frantz Jean (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,707 games
Standings points added: minus-50 points
Because of some truly awful expansion teams coached by Bowness decades ago, the Lightning are in a deceiving overall position on the chart. In reality, Cooper is one of the most accomplished active coaches, and it's a tremendous asset to have two other coaches on staff with at least 420 games of NHL experience apiece -- whether they were particularly successful or not.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Staff: John Tortorella (head), Brad Shaw, Brad Larsen, Kenny McCudden, Ian Clark (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 2,226 games
Standings points added: 18 points
Despite being the only active coach with multiple Jack Adams Awards, Tortorella's career results are far too mixed to place his staff in the top tier. Based on his history, the team's chances of a collapse could be just as high as its continued success.
Florida Panthers
Staff: Bob Boughner (head), Jack Capuano, Paul McFarland, Robb Tallas (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,220 games
Standings points added: 27 points
Like so many other teams recently, the Panthers went off the board to fill their coaching vacancy, selecting a first-time NHL head coach, experienced OHL bench boss Bob Boughner, who most recently served as an assistant in San Jose. To address that potential concern, they wisely supplemented the staff with long-time Islanders head coach Jack Capuano. The only remaining concern is that neither of them have a particularly extensive list of prior coaching success.
Buffalo Sabres
Staff: Phil Housley (head), Davis Payne, Chris Hajt, Tom Ward, Andrew Allen (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 969 games
Standings points added: 27 points
This summer, the boldest coaching changes occurred in Buffalo, which transformed from one of the most experienced and accomplished staffs that helped the team surge up the standings in 2015-16, to one of the greenest. Housley has four years of coaching experience, all as an assistant in Nashville, and Payne's teams have made the playoffs in only five of his 17 seasons across three leagues.
Tier 4: The inexperienced or underachieving
For whatever reason, some teams are not in a position to attract experienced and accomplished coaches, or have deliberately chosen to go off the board and build their staffs around the untried. Given how few teams in Tier 4 wind up making the playoffs, it's not an ideal situation in which to remain over the long term.
Detroit Red Wings
Staff: Jeff Blashill (head), John Torchetti, Doug Houda, Pat Ferschweiler, Jeff Salajko (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,559 games
Standings points added: minus-4 points
It was a rocky second season for Blashill, who now has the unfortunate reputation as the first Red Wings coach to miss the playoffs since Jacques Demers in 1989-90. The bright side for Blashill is that Demers went on to win the Stanley Cup with the Canadiens three years later. Detroit has made some unfortunate investments on the blue line, but it does have the talent up front to get back into the playoffs -- if Blashill & Co. can deploy it effectively.
Carolina Hurricanes
Staff: Bill Peters (head), Steve Smith, Rod Brind'Amour, Mike Bales (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,001 games
Standings points added: minus-2 points
The Hurricanes appear to be a team poised for a breakout; the only question is whether it will be under the guidance of Bill Peters. In 10 seasons as a head coach in four different leagues, Peters has advanced beyond the first round on only one occasion, winning the WHL's Memorial Cup with the Spokane Chiefs in 2007-08. Peters is under contract through the 2018-19 season.
New York Islanders
Staff: Doug Weight (head), Greg Cronin, Kelly Buchberger, Matt Bertani, Luke Richardson, Scott Gomez, Fred Brathwaite (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,122 games
Standings points added: 2 points
The Islanders' new coaching staff may be the NHL's largest, but it is still below average in terms of prior experience and success. Weight's 40 games of NHL head-coaching experience is the most on the team, and the entire staff has a combined total of minus-0.5 points above expectations in 544 AHL games. There could be a lot of on-the-job training behind the Islanders' bench this season.
Boston Bruins
Staff: Bruce Cassidy (head), Joe Sacco, Jay Pandolfo, Bob Essensa (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,196 games
Standings points added: minus-7 points
After a league-leading 10 consecutive seasons with the same team, Julien was surprisingly fired late last season. Bruce Cassidy took over, and he has head-coaching experience in six different leagues, most notably as the head coach of the Capitals in 2002-03 and early 2003-04, and with the AHL's Providence Bruins from 2011-12 through 2015-16. With so many former Providence players in Boston's lineup this season, Cassidy's familiarity could compensate for the staff's notable lack of NHL experience and prior success.
New Jersey Devils
Staff: John Hynes (head), Geoff Ward, Alain Nasreddine, Ryane Clowe, Chris Terreri (goalie)
Adjusted games coached: 1,143 games
Standings points added: minus-11 points
Coaching could be of utmost importance in New Jersey this season, where half of its lineup is composed of players with less than one full season of NHL experience. Hynes and Ward have an interesting blend of experience at the NHL, AHL and OHL levels, and are facing the challenging task of getting the most out of a very young roster.