The 2018 NHL draft appears to be shaping up as Rasmus Dahlin -- and then everyone else. There's consensus that the 17-year-old Swedish defenseman is the best player in the draft and by a fairly decent margin. Barrie Colts forward Andrei Svechnikov seems to be the only player with a semi-realistic chance at catching Dahlin. It's a long season, though.
The draft has a lot of players with exciting and diverse talents. That is particularly true among defensemen. There should be a whole bunch taken in the first round, with several in the first half of the first round. We haven't seen the number of blueliners selected in the first round hit double digits since the 2012 draft, when 13 were selected, but this year is going to get close to that. Dahlin is obviously at the top, but there are so many others, including four in the top eight of this ranking.
It is an especially deep crop of dynamic puck-moving defensemen under 6-feet tall. That group includes the University of Michigan's Quinn Hughes and Bryans IF's Adam Boqvist, with others such as Ty Smith of the WHL's Lethbridge Hurricanes and Ryan Merkley of the OHL's Guelph Storm falling in line. As the NHL continues to look more and more like a rush league, where a premium is placed on highly skilled defensemen with top-end passing skills, this year's draft is very much on trend.
Despite the expected run on defensemen, there is a deep group of forwards that are going to make some teams very happy come June. Svechnikov is far and away the top in that group, but Filip Zadina, Brady Tkachuk and Joe Veleno are among the difference-makers up front.
Note: Stats via eliteprospects.com; heights and weights via NHL Central Scouting.
1. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Frolunda (SHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 181
Defensemen like Dahlin don't come around all that often. With incredible puck skills, smooth skating, good size, strong defensive sense, a willingness to play a physical game, a great shot and smarts, he really is the total package. The creativity with which Dahlin plays is a sight to behold, as well. His ability to embarrass professionals with subtle moves has given him a long list of YouTube clips that hockey fans should be watching on loop. If there's one complaint, it's that Dahlin can sometimes try to do too much and can sometimes get into trouble with that. It's not enough to knock him out of the top spot. He looks like a cornerstone defenseman for any franchise that drafts him.
2. Andrei Svechnikov, RW, Barrie (OHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 186
Currently dealing with a broken hand that will keep him sidelined into December, Svechnikov couldn't have asked for a better start before going down with the injury. In his first season in the OHL, Svechnikov had 10 goals in his first 10 games. On top of his strong skating, one of Svechnikov's best traits is his ability to create shots for himself. He can make defenders miss with his puck skills, but he also finds seams and is never afraid to put a puck on net, regardless of the angle. Svechnikov also has a willingness to drive to the net and use his big frame and powerful legs to challenge defenders. When he gets healthy, we should see him making a sizable impact in what I'd imagine is his only season in the OHL. He almost looked ready for the bigs last season, after tearing apart the USHL and every tournament he went to for Russia as a 16-year-old.
3. Quinn Hughes, D, University of Michigan (Big Ten)
Shoots: L | Height: 5-9 | Weight: 170
Having closely tracked American prospects in particular for the past decade, I'm not sure I've ever seen a U.S. defenseman like Hughes. Last season while with the U.S. National Team Development Program, Hughes took over games from the back end. At least early on, Hughes is discovering that doing that isn't quite as easy in college hockey. That said, the dynamic elements of his game remain. He has tremendous skating ability, crafty puck skills and a quick release on his shot. Defensively, there are some holes, but when he is on the ice, his team is usually going to have the puck. I'd expect an uptick in production as the season progresses and that his playing a prominent role for Team USA at the World Junior Championship will bolster his already lofty projections.
4. Adam Boqvist, D, Brynas (SHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 5-11 | Weight: 168
There are some electric elements to Boqvist's game. He has drawn comparisons to Erik Karlsson, which is always a risky game to play. Without getting too much into the comparison game, Boqvist definitely gives fans something to be excited about. His puck skills are absolutely high end, which complements his slick skating very well. He can be deceptive, especially at the offensive blue line and on the rush. He's not terribly shy about taking it himself, and he has a quick release that can fool goaltenders. Something that is true of many of the defensemen in our first ranking, they're the type of blueliners NHL teams are desperately seeking for the NHL's current style. Boqvist is among the elites in this class when it comes to driving the rush, be it with his feet or his excellent distribution skills.
5. Filip Zadina, RW, Halifax (QMJHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 196
After the top two, I think there's a bit of a drop. That leaves the next several players very tightly bunched together, making for a wide array of opinions on how to slot these prospects. As of this writing, Zadina had been held off the score sheet in only two of 15 games with Halifax so far this season. The Czech winger is a dynamic talent, with good speed and an ability to create off the rush. He finds good ice with ease and makes it count when he has an open look. Zadina probably made the right move in coming to North America for his draft season; there's a good chance he follows in the footsteps of Nico Hischier as a one-and-done import with Halifax. Additionally, Zadina is averaging 1.5 points per game so far in the QMJHL, which is the same rate of production as Hischier in his one and only Q season before going first overall in this year's draft.
6. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Boston University (Hockey East)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 196
Tkachuk came into this season with a reputation, a large portion of which comes from his genes. It's true, as every single game that is broadcast will mention, that you see so much of dad Keith and brother Matthew in Brady's game. The snarl is there, but more than that, there is a great hockey IQ. Brady sees the ice extremely well and makes smart decisions with the puck in all zones. He's not going to burn anybody with his skating, but he protects the puck well with his big frame. Tkachuk is developing a lot of power qualities in his game too. He can overpower defenders and plays a heavy game that makes him rather unpleasant for opponents. He hasn't scored a goal yet at BU, which is off to a slow start as a team, but the numbers should come as he makes the adjustment to college.
7. Joe Veleno, C, Saint John (QMJHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 195
Veleno is among the players who have received heavy top-five consideration early in the season, and that could be where he ends up. I spoke to one scout who has concerns about Veleno not asserting himself enough. Having gained exceptional status to enter the QMJHL a year early -- following John Tavares, Aaron Ekblad, Connor McDavid and Sean Day -- Veleno is in his third junior season. He's on a pretty poor team, as Saint John is near the basement in the Q. Team quality could be one reason his numbers haven't been awe-inspiring thus far. That said, the tools are there for this player to be special. He skates well and has solid puck skills and above-average vision. He might be on the fringes a little too much right now, hence the slip from earlier projections for him. Perhaps gaining exceptional status is a bit of a curse, especially with his being the first ever to play in the QMJHL. The expectations are a fair amount loftier than he has performed to date, but you cannot deny his skill set is among the best in this draft. I'll be watching to see if he can take a step forward as the season progresses.
8. Ty Smith, D, Spokane (WHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 5-10 | Weight: 176
Another smooth-skating, puck-moving defenseman under 6-feet tall, Smith offers so much to like about his game. Of the comparable players (Boqvist, Hughes), Smith probably takes care of his own zone the best. But his big value comes in his ability to get the puck up ice in a hurry. He surveys the ice very well and makes quick, confident decisions with the puck. Poise is something you hear a lot about Smith, and it's paying off on the score sheet for him. I think Boqvist and Hughes are more dynamic, but the gap is not very wide between Smith and them.
9. Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, USNTDP U18 (USHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205
Perhaps one of the best natural scorers in this draft outside of Svechnikov, Wahlstrom is off to a tremendous start this season with the NTDP. His release allows him to score from just about anywhere at this point. One NHL scout mentioned that he thought Wahlstrom could become an even better goal scorer with a little more deception, challenging defenders and goalies a bit more by mixing up release points. Others I've talked to would like to see his game away from the puck improve. That said, there appears to be an awfully high ceiling for a player who has been entertaining to watch since he was a 9-year-old YouTube sensation for his crazy shootout moves.
10. Rasmus Kupari, C, Karpat (Liiga)
Shoots: R | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 183
Having good puck skills is one thing, but showing an ability to extend plays and create more opportunities for scoring chances is putting those skills to good use. That's something I think we've seen plenty from with Kupari. Sometimes that leads to overhandling the puck and getting himself into trouble, but teams can live with that when he makes so many plays. Kupari makes up for his slight frame with good speed and creativity. Finland has been churning out more and more highly skilled forwards, and Kupari looks like the next gem. Getting opportunities in the top pro division with Karpat should challenge him and might make for less-than-gaudy numbers, but he should shine at the big tournaments playing against his age group.
11. Joel Farabee, LW, USNTDP U18 (USHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 5-11 | Weight: 164
One of the best compliments a scout can give a player is that he makes the others around him better. That is something I've heard multiple times about Farabee over the past two years, in addition to how much scouts like his upside. The skill is there, as he has tremendous vision and playmaking skills. There are quite a few goals for which Farabee will do all of the work and find the open man for the easy score. He has been downright ridiculous in international tournaments for the U.S. and is off to a really hot start in his under-18 season. Headed to Boston University in 2018-19, he's just the next in a long line of recent high-end offensive talents who rounded out their games with the Terriers on the way to the NHL. If there's one area Farabee needs to work on, it's simply to get stronger.
12. Jack McBain, C, Toronto (OJHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 197
I have heard multiple times from scouts that they would have preferred to see McBain play either in the USHL or CHL for his draft season for a bigger challenge. That said, no one is taking anything away from his talent. A big-bodied center with good physical strength, McBain essentially has a pro frame already, with some room to grow even more. Projections for him are all over the map, but I go back to what he showed at this year's Ivan Hlinka under-18 tournament. As an offensive leader for a talented Canadian team, he showed he could hang with the world's best in the age group. The Boston College-bound center has to have a massive year playing in the OJHL to leave little doubt with those who wish they saw him at a different level. However, players such as Cale Makar and Casey Mittelstadt opted to stay closer to home against weaker competition last draft season, and both were early first-round picks. The good players get themselves to where they need to be, regardless of where they choose to develop.
13. Jared McIsaac, D, Halifax (QMJHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 195
Everything McIsaac does seems effortless. It's not, of course, but there's a smoothness to this blueliner's game that gives you a lot of confidence in what he can become. Poise is not always a given, but McIsaac seemingly has it in all zones and all situations. He's not going to put up numbers like the other defensemen ahead of him surely will, but he's going to take care of his own end while making great reads and getting his team out of their zone quickly. As he gains a bit more strength, I'd expect him to improve the physical elements of his game, which aren't bad to begin with.
14. Akil Thomas, C, Niagara (OHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 5-11 | Weight: 169
Players who can combine a higher level of skill with a strong work ethic are going to get a lot of discussion in draft rooms. Thomas does a lot of little things well, plays hard and has some physical elements to his game. He is a strong skater and manages to assert himself in games in a variety of ways. He also seems to draw a lot of compliments about his character, which is an added bonus. Expectations seem to be rising for Thomas.
15. Ryan McLeod, C, Mississauga (OHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 200
Described by one scout as an attacking player, McLeod's offensive skills are definitely there. He's especially effective off the rush as an explosive skater who can play the game at a fast pace. The big question I've heard about him right now is his play away from the puck. It's tough to get a great read on that, as he's also playing on one of the worst teams in the OHL's Eastern Conference. McLeod could get a boost when brother Michael, a first-round choice by New Jersey in 2016, returns to the lineup following his recovery from surgery. While the defensive red flags are there, McLeod's offensive skills and skating keep him in the top half of the first round for now.
16. Calen Addison, D, Lethbridge (WHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 5-10 | Weight: 179
Another confident puck-moving defenseman under 6-feet tall, Addison is expected to put up big numbers. He makes measured decisions with the puck and always seems to make the right plays. In my limited viewings of him so far, he seems to pick his spots very well and is particularly dangerous on the power play. After an especially productive season as a 16-year-old in the tough WHL, Addison is taking bigger steps forward in 2017-18. He should have a gaudy stat line next to his name when it's over, with high-end distributing skills and an above-average shot.
17. Bode Wilde, D, USNTDP U18 (USHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 195
Wilde has been a hyped prospect since he was 14 years old, which comes with benefits but can often work against a player, as well. There are expectations set well before the player ever gets into his key development years, and cracks become amplified. That said, Wilde still appears to be the high-end prospect he was believed to become. He always has received attention for the offensive elements in his game, and he's already producing at a high level to start his under-18 season. He also is among the bigger defensemen that skew offensive in this draft, which helps when making comparisons. The University of Michigan commit is a particularly strong skater, with excellent mobility that makes him stronger in his own zone, as well.
18. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, C, Assat (Liiga)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 188
Off to a strong start in Finland's top pro division, Kotkaniemi has a real shot to jump up in the rankings as the season progresses. As of this writing, he is averaging 0.47 points per game through 19 pro appearances this season. That's tough to do at 17 years old, and I think the more reps he gets, the better he'll be. Kotkaniemi has some good offensive creativity, putting himself in positions to get good shots away. He creates space for himself well for a teenager. He has a good physical frame, which he uses advantageously, particularly against his own age group. He has enough skill to produce from the perimeter, but Kotkaniemi has no aversion to a good hard net-front drive. I think he could be a bit more assertive and a little more engaged in his own zone, but there are some great tools there.
19. Jett Woo, D, Moose Jaw (WHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 205
While there isn't a ton of flair in Woo's game, he does a lot of things well. That is translating at both ends of the ice. He's not an imposing physical presence, but Woo has a sturdy frame that allows him to play with some physicality. On top of that, the first name is apt: He is a gifted skater who can jump into a rush and use his feet to get himself out of trouble. Woo also is producing at a high clip to start the season in Moose Jaw. We've seen glimpses of his skill at various points, so this is a trend worth watching as the season progresses.
20. Ryan Merkley, D, Guelph (OHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 5-11 | Weight: 170
On talent alone, Merkley has a chance to be a top-10 player, as one scout put it. Merkley is every bit as dynamic as the likes of Hughes and Boqvist, perhaps even more so. That said, there have been concerns about how engaged Merkley has been, particularly of late and especially in his own zone. He is likely to be a point-per-game (or better) defenseman in the OHL this season, with what one junior scout termed "elite vision" and special qualities with the puck on his stick. As good as those skills are, they're not quite enough to overlook the holes in Merkley's game away from the puck and generally uneven play at this point. He's one to watch very closely this year.
21. Mattias Samuelsson, D, USNTDP U18 (USHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 217
The more I see of Samuelsson and the more I hear about him, the more I believe he has put himself in the mix to threaten as a top-20 pick on the blue line. A big defenseman with NHL bloodlines (father Kjell Samuelsson played 813 games in the NHL and is a development coach with the Flyers), it's all about the details with Samuelsson. One scout I spoke with called him "efficient" and raved about his maturity, going so far as to say he thought the 17-year-old defenseman was not far from NHL-ready. There's a smoothness to his game, and while he won't produce at the rates we're seeing many of this year's projected first-round defensemen, he moves the puck well and can contribute at both ends. Of the first-round caliber defensemen in this draft, Samuelsson might be the strongest in his own end.
22. Isac Lundestrom, C, Lulea (SHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 185
With seven points in 15 games this season for Lulea, Lundestrom already has surpassed his point total from 42 games last season as a rookie in the SHL. That's a great sign for where things are headed for the talented winger. Lundestrom has great skating ability and very quick hands. He has the ability to make defenders miss, and he fools goalies with a quick release. Should his strong performance in the SHL continue, there's a good chance Lundestrom could play his way into the top half of the first round.
23. Benoit-Olivier Groulx, LW, Halifax (QMJHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 192
Versatility is the key to Groulx's game. He is effective in all zones and is showing an ability to produce. He certainly isn't going to blow anyone away with skill, but he has good offensive instincts and plays at a high speed. He probably projects more as a middle-six forward right now, but there are some flashes that suggest he could one day be more. Either way, he has a little physical edge, particularly in the defensive zone, where he can be pretty aggressive. It is clear he takes a lot of pride in being a well-rounded forward.
24. Barrett Hayton, C, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 191
After a strong showing at the Ivan Hlinka under-18 tournament, Hayton has been projected just about everywhere as a top-25 pick. One thing that stands out to me is that he manages the puck very well; there aren't a lot of forced plays. Hayton is more than patient enough to let the game come to him a little bit more than in the past, and he can extend plays with good puck protection. Hayton also has some deceptive qualities without otherworldly stickhandling ability. He can be particularly tricky to defend on the rush, which is another standout quality. He is awfully versatile and can fit into a lot of roles, which only helps his chances going forward.
25. Grigori Denisenko, LW, Yaroslavl (MHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 5-11 | Weight: 165
Lacking size, Denisenko has to be slippery -- and is he ever. With high-end skating, he challenges defenders with speed and adds in some quick hands to make things extra difficult. Like so many Russian wingers, Denisenko has a quick, deceptive release on his shot. He was one of the top scoring 16-year-olds in Russia's MHL last season, averaging 0.79 points per game. Denisenko is not quite at that pace to start this season, but the superb skill suggests that the decrease won't be a trend that continues.
26. Jacob Olofsson, C, Timra (Allsvenskan)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 192
It has been a really strong start to the season for Olofsson, who had a great 16-year-old season, as well. He earned call-ups to the Swedish under-18 team internationally, and he also saw some time in Sweden's second division pro league last season. Olofsson exudes confidence on the ice. This season, he already has shown an ability to produce at the pro level, after not finding the score sheet in 14 Allsvenskan games last season. A sturdy frame with some room to grow, Olofsson seems to be learning to use his strength to his advantage more, giving him another tool in the toolbox.
27. Serron Noel, RW, Oshawa (OHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 6-5 | Weight: 200
Noel is starting to turn heads this season, as he combines more offensive skill with his massive frame and physical strength. He is scoring goals at a high rate right now, and when you're as big as Noel, that's going to get a lot of attention. It's hard to find power forwards with touch, and it seems as if Noel is developing some stronger puck skills. He has a good shot and gets to the net with relative ease. He probably could work on his footwork a bit more, but I don't think it's holding him back much. If he can keep producing like he has, Noel could be a riser this season.
28. Evan Bouchard, D, London (OHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 193
A solid all-around defenseman, Bouchard had a particularly strong 2016-17 season in terms of production. That has continued into his draft season as a late-1999 birth date. The London Knights haven't been great to start the season, but Bouchard is getting a lot of looks. He already is averaging nearly four shots on goal per game. With neither Victor Mete nor Olli Juolevi returning to the Knights this season, it's basically Bouchard's show on the blue line, and he's taking full advantage. He should have some nice numbers and is likely to stay in the first-round conversation.
29. K'Andre Miller, D, USNTDP U18 (USHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 206
It's hard for defensemen who don't put up at least decent offensive numbers to make it into the first round. Miller is not going to be lighting up the score sheets, but scouts have gone out of their way to tell me how much they like Miller's raw tools. The term "project" comes up a lot, so if he's going to be picked in the first round, it's going to be by a team that is prepared to be patient. Miller has all of the physical abilities, and he's committed to the University of Wisconsin, where coach Tony Granato could bring the best out of him. There's some risk factor here, but one longtime scout mentioned that players with Miller's physical traits often have a way of working out.
30. Dmitri Zavgorodny, LW, Rimouski (QMJHL)
Shoots: R | Height: 5-8 | Weight: 175
Undersized but dynamic, Zavgorodny is an exciting talent. He kicked off his draft season with a remarkable showing at the Ivan Hlinka under-18 tournament, with five goals and 10 points over five games to lead all players. Now he's lighting up the scoreboards in the QMJHL. Wherever he goes, he produces. Zavgorodny has a devastating release and is remarkably shifty in tight quarters. As the NHL continues to see an influx of undersized, dynamic forwards find success, teams are less and less likely to shy away. Perhaps "the Russian factor" will hurt Zavgorodny's ultimate draft status, but he has some special qualities that teams in the lower third of the first round should consider.
31. Adam Ginning, D, Linkoping (SHL)
Shoots: L | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 196
Ginning is a good player with a seemingly endless upside. He is a tad unpolished, but the offensive skills are there, as he makes quick decisions with the puck and moves it along well. He has long reach and a big frame, with room to bulk up. He seems to have good offensive instincts and sees the ice well. Ginning is getting challenged in Sweden's top pro league, but he has been a standout performer in his own age group. With his size and what he has been able to show so far, I think he's only starting to scratch the surface of what he can become.
Honorable mention
Jakub Lauko, C, Chomutov (Czech)
Xavier Bouchard, D, Baie-Comeau (QMJHL)
Kirill Nizhnikov, RW, Barrie (OHL)
Alexander Khovanov, C, Kazan (MHL)
Alexander Alexeyev, D, Red Deer (WHL)