The Nationals traded a lot of their prospect depth in the past year, including three of their top 10 prospects in the deal for Adam Eaton (and Eaton’s incredible contract), which left them with only one player on the top 100 and just two others worth consideration. The system isn’t deep as a consequence of trades, years of low draft picks and a few years without any first-round pick at all, but that’s unsurprising for a club that has been in contention for about five seasons and remains one of the best teams on paper going into 2017.
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1. Victor Robles, OF (Ranked No. 8)
2. Juan Soto, OF (Just Missed)
3. Carter Kieboom, SS
4. Erick Fedde, RHP
5. Andrew Stevenson, CF
6. A.J. Cole, RHP
7. Sheldon Neuse, 3B
8. Koda Glover, RHP
9. Austin Voth, RHP
10. Joan Baez, RHP
Non-top 100 guys
Carter Kieboom was a Georgia high school shortstop and the Nats’ first pick in the 2016 draft (28th overall). He has great instincts and feel for the game, but he’s a 45 runner at best, so there’s some question about his staying at shortstop, but he has the hands and arm strength. He has a pure bat without much power right now, an all-fields approach, but he might work his way to average power in time.
Erick Fedde has two ready-now pitches in the fastball and slider. His changeup is too firm right now, but he has yet to have any real trouble with left-handed batters except during his brief stint in Double-A. Andrew Stevenson is a true center fielder with plus defense and plus speed, a doubles-power guy who gets some of his extra bases with his legs rather than his bat. He might become a regular if he can improve his approach (and results) against left-handed pitchers.
A.J. Cole used to work in the mid-90s but is now at 91-92 mph with a four-pitch mix and a 50 or 55 changeup. He’s probably a fifth starter right now, but has more potential if he finds 95 again. Sheldon Neuse is a baseball rat with a high floor as a utility infielder; the Nats moved him to third base, although I thought he could handle second. At either spot, he’s going to have to hit for average because he’s unlikely to develop power.
Koda Glover could end up the Nats’ closer at some point, with a huge fastball and a power slider that becomes more cutter-like when he overthrows it, which he did last year. He has four pitches and might have been a starter, but he has had issues staying healthy and has the ‘attack’ mentality of a closer. Austin Voth is a command guy with some deception and a fastball that has natural cut, so it plays up above his natural velocity, but I don’t think there’s an above-average second pitch.
Joan Baez really drives down his breaking ball, and his fastball will touch 97 mph when he’s right, but he needs to maintain a consistent delivery and arm slot to find average command and remain in the rotation. “Changeup” is just a four-letter word to him at the moment.
Osvaldo Abreu (11) had a very disappointing 2016, reaching High-A at age 22 and losing all of his power, hitting .247/.328/.346 despite a solid contact rate. He has improved enough at shortstop that he might be a regular, with the range and arm for it, and he has a swing with enough loft to produce more power. Left-hander Jesus Luzardo (12) would have been a 2016 first-rounder, but he blew out his elbow after a velocity spike in the spring. Before that, he had an average fastball, above-average curveball, good delivery and was projected to be a mid-rotation starter. The Nats took him in the third round.
Pedro Severino (13) is a big league catcher defensively and can make enough contact to be a solid backup, but until he becomes more than a singles hitter who doesn’t walk, he’s no more than that. Outfielder Blake Perkins (14) is a raw center fielder who began switch-hitting in 2016. He’s a 70 runner who needs to start driving the ball with more authority.
Tyler Watson (15) was the Nats’ 34th-round pick in 2015 but has come on quickly with a high spin rate on his fastball and big curveball, making three appearances in Low-A after dominating the short-season New York-Penn League over the summer. Rafael Bautista (16) has a solid fourth-outfielder skill set but probably not enough of anything to be a regular in a corner.
The Nats took Nick Banks (17) in the fourth round last year, a huge tumble for a player who got first-round buzz after 2015 before a miserable spring at the plate, and then he didn’t do much in the New York-Penn League after signing. Although he’s a bat-only corner outfielder, it was still a good value pick.
Catcher Jakson Reetz improved his receiving significantly last year in his longest season of catching (88 games in Low-A), but his bat hasn’t progressed since signing. The Nats have tried to get him to quiet his lower half and get the bat head into the zone quicker. Drew Ward merits a mention for hitting well as a High-A repeater at age 21, but he didn’t hit well after a promotion to Double-A and remains a poor defender at third, with a long swing that has never given me reason to expect him to hit.
2017 impact: Glover is ready for the majors, and if he can dial down the adrenaline a little, he might take on high-leverage innings by year's end. Cole or Voth could make some spot starts; Fedde might get a call-up in the second half for relief or as an extra starter.
Sleeper: If Soto carries over what he did in 2016 as a 17-year-old -- hitting .368/.420/.553 -- into this year, he’ll move well into next year’s top 100, probably reaching the middle of the list, by next offseason.
The fallen: Neither Reetz nor Ward has come close to justifying his draft position. Cole isn’t the prospect he was in A-ball, much less in high school. But no one has fallen as far as fast as Michael Taylor, who just can’t make enough contact against big league pitching and has disappeared from the Nats’ plans in center field.