The Phillies’ rebuilding process made just marginal progress in 2016, as many of the team’s top prospects had disappointing seasons and the team’s draft class landed just two players from my pre-draft top 100. The Phillies still have a healthy crop of teenagers in their lowest levels, largely from their long-running Latin American pipeline, and should see a number of prospects reach the majors this season for at least part-time roles. The system’s biggest strength is pitchers signed out of Latin America, with a huge crop in Class A and below who are still far from their ceilings.
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1. J.P. Crawford, SS (Ranked No. 5)
2. Mickey Moniak, OF (Ranked No. 30)
3. Jorge Alfaro, C (Ranked No. 45)
4. Rhys Hoskins, 1B
5. Dylan Cozens, OF
6. Scott Kingery, 2B
7. Mark Appel, RHP
8. Roman Quinn, CF
9. Elniery Garcia, LHP
10. Franklyn Kilome, RHP
Non-top-100 guys
Rhys Hoskins and Dylan Cozens both had enormous seasons in hitter-friendly Reading, and Hoskins also hit on the road. Long-term, Hoskins has the better hit tool, but I think his power last year was illusory. Cozens remains hopeless against lefties (.197/.262/.378 with a 42 percent K rate) and is a below-average defender in right. Both would have made the main list if I’d gone to 150.
Scott Kingery might be a 70 defender at second, and he’s definitely a 70 runner who has great hand-eye coordination, but he isn't patient in the least, and he has to stop slamming grounders to the left side. The speed and glove give him above-average regular potential, but he has to get on base at a better clip.
Mark Appel’s season was a washout, as it ended in June after surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow. The stuff that made him the No. 1 overall pick is largely still there, but he has had problems working from the stretch for the past several seasons, losing all fastball plane in the process, something the Phillies had him work on while rehabbing this summer.
Roman Quinn has 80 speed and could impact the game on the bases and in center, but he has never played 100 games in a regular season because he has been hurt so often, and that has robbed him of development time and raised doubts about his durability.
Elniery Garcia was the system’s most pleasant surprise, a potential No. 3 or No. 4 starter who throws 92-94 mph, with both a curve and changeup that you could project as future 60 pitches and average control but not command. Franklyn Kilome reached full-season ball and was good, but the results don’t match the stuff. His breaking ball made some progress last year, but his long-term issue is command. He did improve as the weather warmed up, with a 2.73 ERA after skipping a late-April start. To compare them, Kilome has more velocity and is much bigger, but Garcia has better secondary stuff and has already had success at a higher level at the same age.
Kevin Gowdy (11) was the team’s first selection in the second round, after dropping for signability concerns. He throws 89-92 mph with a good curveball and a good delivery that should lead to future plus command.
Outfielder Nick Williams (12) stalled in Triple-A with a .287 OBP and just average power, and he earned a benching for a lack of hustle. Williams’ lack of any plan at the plate has always been a problem; since his arrival in the Cole Hamels deal, he has 21 unintentional walks and 156 strikeouts in 625 PA. Outside of one month in the Texas system after the Rangers explicitly told him to try to be more patient, he has been a hacker. He’s young enough to change that, but there’s no evidence that it will happen.
Adonis Medina (13) looks like a god and pitches like a mortal, with Kilome-level stuff and better feel for a changeup, but he had really poor results in the Penn League. He’s loose and athletic and should get a shot at the Lakewood rotation, but he’s going to have to show he can miss minor league bats.
Cornelius Randolph (14) can hit, but is there enough else here? He improved in left field over the course of the year but produced no power at all and missed two months with a sore shoulder (which might have sapped his power). He also missed some outfield reps due to shin splints. Conversion guy Sixto Sanchez (15) throws 90-97 mph for strikes but has nothing else above average at the moment, with the changeup ahead of the breaking ball; he’s a great signing for $35,000. Victor Arano (16) is a pure reliever, a right-hander with electric stuff and plus control. If there’s a Ken Giles in the system right now, it’s him.
Second baseman Daniel Brito (17) has a promising hit tool and a chance to end up a plus defender at second as well. Right-hander Alberto Tirado (18) has been clocked throwing up to 100 mph as a starter but with below-average command and no consistent second pitch. He’s a clear reliever for me.
Jhailyn Ortiz (19) has 70 raw power with swing-and-miss concerns that he’ll have to address as he gets older. He was just 17 in the Gulf Coast League and finished third in the circuit in home runs. Right-hander Ricardo Pinto (20) seems to have stalled as a starter after a poor year in Double-A, but he might have a second life in relief with his plus fastball/plus changeup combo if he shows better command of either and more feel for using them to set hitters up. Nick Pivetta (21) is a command right-hander with a little bit of sink, but he doesn’t have a real out pitch. Right-hander Ben Lively (22) is a deception guy with an average fastball that got squared up much more often in Triple-A. He might be a No. 5, but I think he’s more of a once-through-the-order reliever with hitters not having time to adjust to the delivery.
2017 impact: Arano is the best bet because he’s probably ready -- he certainly throws enough strikes for it -- and the Phillies’ bullpen is not a strength. Williams, Quinn, Appel, Cozens, Hoskins and Lively are all close enough to the majors that any of them could see time in Philly, but there aren’t any jobs open or even up for grabs, so all are waiting for an injury or trade. Quinn would be the one to watch because if he’s healthy, he can help the team right away on the bases and defense, and it’s not like Odubel Herrera is flanked by world-beaters. Andrew Knapp could be the big-league backup, but I don’t see him as a future regular due to the lack of offensive potential.
Sleeper: Garcia came on in multiple ways in 2016 while having success in high-A, even making a playoff start for Reading, where he went six innings and gave up three runs in the Fightin Phils’ only postseason win of the year.
The fallen: That’s Nick Williams, who made my top 100 after his strong 2015 but on whom I was never previously very high. At this point, I think that one season is the outlier.