<
>

Law: Withdrawing from draft doesn't benefit player in any way

Brendan C. Hall/ESPN

The news that prep right-hander Mike Vasil, who appeared at one point to be a likely top-10 or top-15 pick in this year's MLB draft, plans to withdraw his name from consideration -- more on what that means in a moment -- led to a few arguments on Twitter when I pointed out that this is a clearly suboptimal decision for the player. Many responses I received stemmed from confusion about what it means to "withdraw" from the MLB draft and what happens to players who choose to sign out of high school rather than attend college.

Vasil is committed to the University of Virginia, a program that has been very successful in recent years -- with one College World Series win and one loss in the CWS finals -- and that has produced many high draft picks, although they've mostly been position players. UVa also has a reputation for encouraging recruits to do what Vasil did -- take their names out of the draft entirely -- as Nate Kirby did a few years ago, eventually going to UVa, getting hurt his junior year and signing for a below-slot bonus when his post-draft physical revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament.

Players can indicate a disinclination to sign, either directly or by making a demand for a large signing bonus. In practice, this happens all the time and functions as a way to let teams know of a player's intentions without closing off the possibility of a life-changing financial offer. The current bonus-pool structure means teams almost never draft players without knowing before they make the selection whether the player will sign and for exactly how much.

Such pre-draft deals are technically prohibited yet actually pervasive; the system all but requires teams to make them because otherwise they would be at risk of going way over their bonus pool to sign their players, or would potentially have their last unsigned player hold them hostage in negotiations for more money. So if you're the scouting director and your pick in the second round is coming up, you call the player you want to take (or his adviser) and ask, "Will you sign for $X at our next pick?" If the player or adviser says yes, the team takes the player; if not, the team will very likely take someone else.

But withdrawing from the draft completely precludes any chance of a team offering Vasil a huge bonus that might alter his decision to go to school. If Vasil declined to take the drug test required by MLB of the top 200 prospects in the class, then he will be ineligible for the draft -- no team can take him, period. That's what Kirby did in 2012, and that's what Kyler Murray did in 2015. It's the only official way to withdraw your name from draft eligibility.

There is a second, unofficial path that doesn't preclude a team from drafting a particular player but could provide some disincentive to do so. MLB also requires some pitchers to submit MRIs before the draft. If a pitcher submits one, and the team that drafts him decides after the draft that it doesn't like what it sees in his post-draft physical, the team still must make a minimum offer to him to retain the draft pick in the following year if he declines to sign after the draft.

If the pitcher doesn't submit an MRI, as was the case with Oregon State's Drew Rasmussen last year (taken 31st overall by Tampa Bay), then the team can walk away after the draft with no negative ramifications. The Rays have a compensatory pick this year after failing to sign Rasmussen, and they didn't lose money from their bonus pool last year when they didn't sign him; Rasmussen returned to school but required a second Tommy John surgery in the fall.

Sources have told me that Vasil did not submit an MRI to MLB, as is his right -- there is an argument that doing so can hurt a player more than it can help him -- but it might deter some teams from taking him after he missed a few starts with an elbow issue. He did return the week of May 21 and threw well in front of many scouts, working from 90-96 mph and reestablishing himself as a potential first-round pick.

If a player withdraws from the draft entirely, he has eliminated any chance of a team meeting or exceeding his bonus demands. Players who sign with college eligibility remaining can get the MLB tuition reimbursement plan, which will pay for however many semesters of school they have remaining, based on the university at which they were playing or to which they were committed before signing.

Vasil could, in theory, get an offer from some team for $2 million plus eight semesters of the tuition reimbursement plan and choose whether to sign then or still matriculate at UVa in the fall, considering the money involved, the value of his athletic scholarship versus the superior value of the MLB plan, the risk of injury while pitching in college, the value of the collegiate experience and so on.

Withdrawing just eight days before the draft has no upside for a player; he gains nothing, but loses flexibility. Being drafted carries no negative consequences -- it doesn't affect your eligibility to play college baseball -- nor does getting a call from a team and declining to sign. The only party that benefits from Vasil's withdrawing from the draft is the University of Virginia coaching staff, which can now rest easy knowing their top recruit will get to campus in the fall.

I've already had advisers reach out to me to say they would never counsel players to withdraw from the draft, and had executives questioning the timing of this decision, as Vasil had indicated all spring that he was interested in pro ball. Like players who matriculate a semester early and skip the draft -- Brandon McIlwain did this a few years ago to attend South Carolina only to barely play there and transfer to Cal -- players who decline the drug test and withdraw from the draft hurt themselves for no gain. I'm sure there are a few economics professors in Charlottesville who could explain why this is a poor choice for any rational prospect.