My second look at Vlad Guerrero Jr. this year was a little more impressive than my first, as the best prospect in the minors hit an opposite-field homer on the second pitch he saw Monday night in Hartford, Connecticut, and gathered two more hits as the Toronto Blue Jays’ Double-A affiliate won a 10-5 slugfest against the Yard Goats.
Guerrero hits like his dad but with patience and plate discipline, showing the same wide plate coverage and furious swing, with the strength and bat speed to drive a ball way out to right field against left-handed starter Jack Wynkoop. Vlad later singled on a tapper that might have gone about 30 feet, running just a little below average to first, and then had a hard-hit single to left on a slider from another left-handed pitcher, before striking out in his last at-bat on a very good slider from former Orioles reliever Jason Garcia. (Garcia seemed to dial it up a little for Vlad in that at-bat, with the bases loaded, only to let up for the next batter, Juan Kelly, who hit a ball so hard it sounded like he had split an atom, putting it in the second deck in right field.)
That’s the good; here’s the not so good. In two games I’ve seen Vlad make multiple misplays at third, some from a lack of lateral range, and some just from getting too cute in trying to field ground balls. He has a 70-grade arm, but he rifled a throw that should have started a 5-4-3 double play into right field. He seems to like to backhand routine grounders rather than getting his (large) body in front of them. He did make a great play coming in on a ground ball that likely would have gone foul, and he has no problem leaving his feet to try to make a play. But he’s not an average defender at third, probably not even a 40 right now, and given his sheer size already at age 19, the odds are against him getting to a 50. Fortunately for everyone involved, this is a grade-80 bat that will profile even if he ends up at first base rather than in right field.
• Bo Bichette played shortstop and hit ahead of Vlad, with three hits, all hit hard, including a double off the left-field wall on a curveball down and in from a left-handed pitcher. His swing is just as it was last year, unconventional with a wrap and generally noisy, but his hands are so quick and hand-eye coordination so good it doesn't seem to matter, and he showed no trouble adjusting to off-speed stuff. His one strikeout came on a 92 mph fastball down below the zone.
Bichette’s footwork remains an issue at short, but his hands and arm are more than adequate for the position or for second base, where he has played one game this year. He plays everywhere like his hair is on fire; he made a catch over the left-field tarp despite starting the play shifted to his left from the normal starting position for a shortstop (if such a thing even exists anymore). He's not as advanced a hitter as Vlad Jr. -- who is, really? -- but I think next fall is a realistic time for his arrival.
• Cavan Biggio appeared to be just an organizational player coming out of college and even after a 2017 season in which he hit an underwhelming .233/.342/.363 as a 22-year-old in high-A with 11 homers. It's May 15, and he already has 10 homers in Double-A, with just three of them at home in New Hampshire (a good park for left-handed power) and two in Reading, Pennsylvania (a good park for power, period), along with an OBP that rose to .412 after he drew three walks and hit a line-drive single to center against a lefty's slider in his one official at-bat. (He left the game after he was dinged up while sliding into second base.)
Biggio's power looks legitimate; there's some length to his swing and it's not great bat speed, but he does seem to have loft to his finish and enough strength to be this sort of 20-homer bat. The Blue Jays have mostly played him at second, where he's a fringy defender at best, and he may profile best on defense at first, where I don't think his bat would make him a regular. Three months ago, he wasn't even a potential backup, though, and this looks like real, sustainable progress.
• On the Hartford (Colorado Rockies) side, Brendan Rodgers got off to a rough start in Double-A this year but has warmed up with the weather, hitting .344/.393/.573 since a couple of days off for bad weather in mid-April. The team’s first-round pick in 2015, taken third overall, Rodgers had hit well at both levels of A-ball, but both clubs play in strong hitters' parks, so this is his first real pro experience in a neutral environment.
On Monday night, Rodgers smoked two balls, one a 95 mph fastball that he lined up the middle off the shifted Bichette’s glove, before walking and tapping out in his last at-bat. He didn’t seem to have any trouble with velocity or recognizing balls and strikes, and he has been making a ton of contact since that terrible first two weeks. The Rockies have been using him at three infield spots, so he played third on Monday night, showing plenty of hands and arm for the position, although I don’t think there’s an opportunity for him there in Denver just yet.
• Outfielder Sam Hilliard was 12th in my Rockies organizational rankings this winter, when I cited his power/speed upside against the risk entailed in his high strikeout rate. I think that's still a fair summary of where he stands as a prospect -- he has struck out in 30 percent of his plate appearances this year, but he's showing speed (he's a 65-grade runner), some power and he’s getting on base more than enough to overcome the downside of the low contact rate so far. He's playing mostly right field this year and was the designated hitter on Monday, but based solely on how well I saw him run, I'd try him in center.
• The pitching was not very good; Garcia threw hard and showed a plus slider, but he got knocked around. So did New Hampshire starter and former first-rounder Jon Harris, who was throwing 94-97 mph as well as a cutter and slurve, but he might as well have been throwing 82 for how well the Hartford hitters turned on his fastball. Right-hander Zach Jackson threw two perfect innings in relief for New Hampshire, working at 92-95 mph as well as a power curveball at 83-85 mph. He comes from a very high arm slot that gives him some plane on the fastball, similar to Tyler Thornburg's slot (which limits him to a relief role).
• When I saw New Hampshire at Reading a few weeks ago, Sean Reid-Foley started for the Fisher Cats and showed two plus pitches but not command. His fastball was 92-95 mph, a four-seamer with some life up in the zone, and his slider was plus at 85-87. He also showed a hard slurve in the 82-84 mph range -- they are two distinct pitches, according to a Toronto source -- and a fringy changeup that comes in at 83-85.
He has had trouble with control this year, walking 17 in 38 innings (despite one six-inning, no-walk outing), and has a wide platoon split thanks to the lack of an average changeup. There's still starter potential here, but it's now his second year at Double-A and his main issues aren't really resolved to the point where I could say he's going to be a starter in the big leagues.