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Law's draft notebook: Checking in on top pitching prospects

Carter Stewart is still the top prep arm in the class and should go off the board in the top 10 picks, somewhere between No. 2 (San Francisco) and No. 7 (San Diego). Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire

Right-hander Carter Stewart from Eau Gallie High School (Melbourne, Florida) came out throwing fire early this spring, and since he already had the best curveball in the draft class -- with one of the highest spin rates ever recorded on that type of pitch -- he made a quick run to the top of many teams' preference lists of high school pitchers. As several other comparable prep arms have taken steps back or suffered injury, Stewart has been consistent just about all spring in stuff and results.

Last Wednesday, however, Stewart started to slip just a little bit, and his timing isn't great. Stewart had been working in the mid-90s all spring, touching 98 mph in several outings. But last Wednesday he seemed somewhat restrained and pitched anywhere from 88-95 mph, as if he were cruising early and holding the extra velocity in reserve. The curveball was still an obvious plus pitch, although it was also down a half-grade or so, still tight but in the 75-78 mph range and more of a grade 60 pitch than a 70 or better. Stewart threw a handful of changeups at 83-84, and there's enough there to project it to at least solid-average.

Stewart is a big kid -- 6-foot-6 and over 200 pounds already, built like a workhorse -- and he has shown some top-of-the-rotation stuff over the course of the spring. I've had several scouts say they have minor concerns about his delivery; what I saw was fine from the windup, but tended to get too short out of the stretch, something that should be easily remedied in pro ball. One director pointed out that Stewart is winding down after about 2½ months of pitching, while cold-weather kids are just getting warmed up, so it's possible Stewart is just fatigued. Even if he's pitching at 92-94 mph with that knockout curveball, he's still the top prep arm in the class and should go off the board in the top 10 picks, somewhere between No. 2 (San Francisco) and No. 7 (San Diego).

• The state of Georgia was supposed to be loaded this year, with Georgia Tech catcher Joey Bart being a first-rounder (almost certainly going in the top six picks right now) and potentially four high school players also going in the first round. But the surprise has been the ascendance of right-hander Cole Wilcox, who has surpassed Ethan Hankins (who missed a month with a sore shoulder) and the various other prep players in the state to emerge as one of the top two high schoolers there. Wilcox has thrown better as the spring has progressed, and on April 17 showed a very promising three-pitch mix in a home start in Ringgold, Georgia.

Wilcox threw both a four- and a two-seamer, 90-94 mph overall, more 90-91 on the latter pitch with huge tailing life. He showed a grade 50 to 55 changeup at 83-84 mph, with enough confidence to double up on the pitch. He has thrown a curveball and slider in the past, but last Tuesday used just that slider, mostly at 82-83 and at times showing plus, with tilt and a tight break, and some versions that became more slurve-like. I know there's some concern among scouts about his delivery as well -- his arm action can be very long from separation to release, and he starts out as if he's taking a long stride yet abandons it partway to the plate -- which might push him more to the back half of the round rather than the top. I do think he's a clear first-rounder either way, given the mix of stuff he's showing and ability to throw strikes.

• Upstate New York -- which I, as a Long Island native, define as "anything north of the Bronx" -- isn't a hotbed of amateur talent, but should produce a Day 1 pick this year in Beacon High School right-hander Lenny Torres Jr., who has seen his velocity tick up this spring and stands out as one of the youngest prospects in this year's draft. Torres, who won't turn 18 until the fall, overpowered his opponents in a start on Monday at the Hudson Valley Renegades' Dutchess Stadium. He faced 17 batters, allowing just two walks and one ball in play, with 14 strikeouts, 10 of them swinging. He worked primarily with his fastball, which was 94-97 for the first four innings and then 90-93 in the fifth after he'd been sitting for a long half-inning, showing below-average command and control but blowing it past hitters who'd swing if he was close to the zone. His breaking ball was inconsistent; he can spin the ball and threw some curveballs that were above average, but just as many that were in the dirt or backed up, all in the 80-83 mph range. He's athletic and still has a young physique, with some effort and a moderate stride length that I think gives teams plenty to work with once he signs. He has a wide range of potential outcomes and I could see a mid-rotation starter here, but he also reminds me a little of what Dellin Betances was like as a teenager -- huge fastball, iffy command -- while boasting better athleticism and the advantages of youth.

• Stetson right-hander Logan Gilbert came out of last summer as a very likely top-10 pick who'd probably get consideration at 1-1, but his velocity has been down a half-grade or more all spring. While he should still go in the first round, teams have backed off their initial optimism. Gilbert pitched Friday night in Newark, New Jersey, against NJIT in a conference game in the geographically challenged Atlantic Sun; he made the Highlanders look like a JV high school team, retiring the first 13 batters and working primarily with his fastball, which showed good glove-side run (or perhaps some natural cutting action) at 89-92 mph. His curveball is average to above average, 74-76 mph, with huge depth and some angle to its break, and he throws both pitches for strikes. Gilbert comes from the extreme third-base side of the rubber, so he's really tough for right-handers to pick up, and extends very well over his front side to help his fastball play up above its velocity. Even as his stuff is now, he looks like a back-end starter, but I'd gladly roll the dice on him regaining a little more velocity, given his competitiveness, control and that extension in his delivery.