The Mets’ system remains strong, even with some recent trades to bolster the big league club, mostly because of high school picks that are starting to pan out after those players have had a few years in the system. While their top 10 is almost all from the draft, their No. 1 prospect and much of their system’s depth comes from their Latin American scouting staff, who have identified and signed a lot of upside guys who bring plus tools or big fastballs. Besides Amed Rosario, all of those players are still a good three to five years away.
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1. Amed Rosario, SS (Ranked No. 3)
2. Dom Smith, 1B (Ranked No. 29)
3. Thomas Szapucki, LHP (Ranked No. 60)
4. Robert Gsellman, RHP (Ranked No. 76)
5. Justin Dunn, RHP (Ranked No. 84)
6. Gavin Cecchini, 2B/SS
7. Desmond Lindsay, OF
8. Thomas Nido, C
9. Peter Alonso, 1B
10. Brandon Nimmo, OF
Non-top 100 guys
Gavin Cecchini hits enough to be a top-100 prospect, but his throwing issues from 2015 carried over into 2016, and I can’t project him as a shortstop going forward, with some concerns about him throwing at second base. He rushes his feet and makes off-balance throws, often overthrowing to compensate, but is better if he has no time to think and can just let it go. He can definitely hit and get on base, so he’ll provide value at any position, but I’d like to see a higher probability of him succeeding at second.
Desmond Lindsay was the team’s first pick in 2015 (in the second round). He played only 37 games over the summer but raked in advanced short-season Brooklyn, showing good instincts in center and an advanced approach at the plate, but without the base-stealing or power he’s expected to produce.
Thomas Nido’s breakout year came after he toned down his swing, eliminated his high leg kick and got himself into hitting position much sooner. Behind the plate, he nailed 41 percent of steal attempts over the past two seasons combined. He was a touch old for High-A, but if he carries over this performance to Double-A, he’s a candidate for next year’s top 100.
Peter Alonso is an advanced hitter who shows big, raw power in BP but more doubles power in-game; he was the Mets’ second-round pick in 2015 out of the University of Florida. He’s a right-right first baseman, an unpopular profile in scouting, and the value is entirely in his bat. He should start the year in High-A.
Brandon Nimmo appears to be a fourth outfielder, nothing more, as he has really only hit lefties when playing in the hitter-friendly Southern Division of the PCL, and he doesn’t play center field well enough to be a regular there. He’s good in a corner and can get on base against right-handed pitching, so as a platoon guy and backup in center, he’s ready now. Also, he gives Terry Collins yet another excuse to not play Michael Conforto.
Right-hander Marcos Molina (11) returned from Tommy John surgery and showed his old, mid-90s velocity in the Arizona Fall League. He has a low-slot delivery that puts a lot of stress on the elbow (duh), but he has already got two major league-quality pitches and throws them both for strikes. Ricardo Cespedes (12), whom I have been assured is not the result of an attempt to clone Yoenis, is a center fielder who will likely end up in right, flashing a plus arm and excellent bat-to-ball skills with a short swing that may not produce much power even as he fills out.
Wuilmer Becerra (13) fought a labrum tear in his right shoulder all year, eventually succumbing to surgery in late July; the injury killed his power, but it’s impressive that he even managed to hit .312/.341/.393 while playing through it.
Lefty Anthony Kay (14) will miss all of 2017 after Tommy John surgery. He was the Mets’ second pick in the 2016 draft but had been worked very hard at UConn, including a complete game with a 17-run lead in March and a 90-pitch outing on three days’ rest in May. When healthy, he has an average fastball and plus change, but he could use a better third pitch against lefties and projects as a fourth starter. Shortstop Luis Carpio (15) was my breakout pick last year but had surgery in March to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder and played in only 20 games at summer’s end. He had a plus arm and all the requisite tools to stay at short, with good bat speed and decent pitch recognition, but we’ll see where the arm strength is after an offseason of rest.
I try to avoid looking at DSL stats given the level of competition, distance from the big leagues and the possible presence of players who are actually 23 years old, but Andres Gimenez’s (16) line is hard to ignore: .350/.469/.523, 46 walks and 22 strikeouts. Gabriel Ynoa (17) is a command/control guy who can sink the ball and has a solid-average changeup, without a real swing-and-miss offering that would make him more than a No. 4 or 5 starter. Luis Guillorme (18) is a slap-hitting shortstop who is a 70 defender with a 40 bat and 20 power, but the current emphasis on defense might get him to the big leagues.
Jhoan Urena (19) broke both hamate bones in 2015, and his return to regular playing time in High-A didn’t go well, with a .225/.301/.350 line, although he made plenty of contact and may have just needed to regain strength in his hands. Or maybe he’s just not that good, but before these injuries, I thought he had a good swing and plus raw power. Merandy Gonzalez (20) is a cutter guy who has been in the low 90s but had some outings where he was stuck in the upper 80s and hasn’t reached full-season ball yet through his age-20 season; he has to prove he can get better hitters out without relying on the one pitch.
2017 impact: Gsellman should be in the major league rotation right now. Ynoa could be a pen option, although I’d rather see him start in Triple-A, and I’m not sure he’s an ideal candidate for the pen. Nimmo could be their fourth outfielder, but every time Collins starts him over Conforto, the Mets should dock Terry two days’ pay. Cecchini will probably debut this year, but unless Neil Walker gets hurt, there isn’t a place for him to play regularly.
Sleeper: Other than shortstop Luis Carpio, my pick for 2016 sleeper who gets a mulligan for a year limited to just 20 games by surgery on a torn labrum is Gimenez, a true shortstop who looks like he’ll hit. Signed for $1.2 million in 2015, Gimenez is a plus defender at short now with a chance to develop into a 70 glove. He also is as an above-average runner who projects to have average power.
The fallen: Milton Ramos, the team’s 2014 third-rounder, can still play the heck out of shortstop, but a .220/.292/.273 line in Low-A with zero homers isn’t getting him any closer to the big leagues. He’ll play in High-A at 21, but if pitchers keep knocking the bat out of his hands, his youth will not excuse his performance.