For the past I don’t even know how many years, I’ve written this extra piece, going into some of the players whom I strongly considered for the top 100 but who didn’t make the ultimate list, and discussing why they ended up on the outside.
They’re not ranked within this article (other than the first guy), and this isn’t necessarily the next ten guys either. They’re all still prospects, just not as good as the hundred above them.
Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals
Age: 18 (10/25/98) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 185
Top level: Short-season A
Soto was the final cut, so if you want to tag a player as No. 101 on the list, he’s the one, and he’ll be No. 2 on the Nationals' organization ranking when I post that next week. Soto is a very physical kid already even though he just turned 18, with a mature approach at the plate, showing he understands the strike zone and that he’ll have to adjust that approach when there’s a lefty on the mound. He’s very balanced at the plate too, with strong hands and the ability to drive the ball the other way already.
He’s a corner outfielder with an average arm and is probably a 45 runner, so he may not add much value on defense, but the projections on the hit and power tools would still make him a star out there. I didn’t love leaving him off, but given his inexperience and the fact that he’s stuck in a corner, I thought the last few guys on the 100 had more present value, even if Soto might be in the top 50 after we see him face full-season pitching.
Brad Zimmer, OF , Cleveland Indians
Age: 24 (11/27/92) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 220
Top level: Triple-A
Zimmer hit Triple-A for the first time last year, but Triple-A hit back harder -- and he’d already taken something of a beating in Double-A. Zimmer still has the same tools that made him one of Cleveland’s top prospects the last couple of years, but whereas Clint Frazier (since traded to the Yankees) worked to cut down on his swing and improve his contact rate, Zimmer’s propensity to swing and miss has gotten worse.
He’s also made no progress against left-handed pitchers, hitting .179/.343/.250 against them in 2016 with a 34 percent strikeout rate, raising concerns among other front offices that he’s merely a platoon player. Zimmer has the raw power and plus speed to be a 20/20 guy, perhaps more, if he can make enough contact to get to it, and in center field that would make him an above-average regular, but what I heard from scouts all year and saw myself in the AFL (where he punched out in 14 of 27 PA against lefties) has me concerned he won’t reach his ceiling.
Tyler Jay, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Age: 23 (4/19/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 185
Top level: Double-A
Jay was just OK in his three months in high-A, where the Twins handled him very carefully with low pitch counts and extra rest between all his starts, but not as dominant as I expected given the stuff he showed in college, and shortly after he reached Double-A the Twins moved him to the bullpen to keep him under an innings cap. Then he suffered a neck injury that ended his season.
Even with extra days off before pitching, Jay pitched with more average stuff than he had at the University of Illinois, and industry-wide concerns remain about whether his slight frame could handle starting. The new front office in Minnesota didn’t draft Jay and may have its own ideas about his future, but I would at least like to see him get one more year as a starter in Double-A to show he can’t do it before he’s consigned to a relief role.
Tyler Mahle, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 22 (9/29/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210
Top level: Double-A
Mahle might have made the top 100 list if he had performed in Double-A the way he did in both levels of A-ball, and his problems at the higher level stemmed more from his pitching plan than his raw stuff.
Mahle is 92-95 with good sink, and has a solid slider and changeup, but he is so fastball-centric that Double-A hitters could guess what he was throwing, and he gave up 12 homers in 71 1/3 innings there, after giving up just 13 between low-A and high-A in 231 innings.
He doesn’t have the upside of other Reds pitching prospects like Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson or just-signed Vlad Gutierrez, but might have a better shot than any of them to have a career as at least a fourth or fifth starter.
Nolan Jones, 3B, Cleveland Indians
Age: 19 (5/7/98) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 185
Top level: Rookie
Bryan Reynolds, OF, San Francisco Giants
Age: 22 (1/27/85) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 200
Top level: High-A
Jones and Reynolds were the top two guys from my 2016 draft ranking to miss this top 100 list, and both guys missed for basically the same reason -- they struck out way too much in pro ball.
Jones, a prep infielder from the Philly area whom Cleveland paid over-slot in the second round, went to the Arizona Rookie League and punched out in 36 percent of his plate appearances with no power to speak of. For a kid whose ranking was predicated on my belief that he would hit, that stat line is terrifying, and scouts who saw him said he looked a bit overmatched. He played shortstop in high school but is going to be so big he may end up at first base.
Reynolds was at least challenged right away by better pitching, as the Giants sent him to the Northwest League and then briefly to the Sally League, but just as he did at Vanderbilt, he punched out more than you’d like, even though the other tools are still there. When he did make contact in pro ball it was good quality. I’m less concerned by Reynolds’ start in pro ball than Jones’, although I will be watching both very carefully to see if my pre-draft confidence in them was misplaced.
Christian Arroyo, SS/3B/2B, San Francisco Giants
Age: 22 (5/30/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180
Top level: Double-A
The Giants were aggressive with Arroyo from the start, and 2016 was the first year he didn’t respond to a challenging promotion, with a .274/.316/.373 stat line for Double-A Richmond at age 21. They’ve also tried him at third base, a position I’m sure he’ll be able to handle in time but one with a higher offensive standard than he faced at shortstop or would likely face at second base.
So we have a smart player who has to move to third or second, won’t have much power, and has never shown any proclivity to walking -- his 27 unintentional walks in 2016 was a career best. He is still a prospect, as are all the guys in this "just missed" column, but I think his ceiling is probably that of an average regular, one whose value will derive entirely from his ability to put the ball in play and thus come down to his batting averages.
Harrison Bader, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 23 (6/3/1994) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 195
Top level: Double-A
Call me a Bader hater if you must, but I’m just not sold on that swing producing enough extra-base contact for him to profile as an everyday guy in a corner. I think he’s just adequate in center but not enough to play it every day given how clubs are focusing on guys with more range or better closing speed than he can offer.
He’s a very Cardinals sort of player -- smart, instinctive, a grinder (man do I hate that term), etc. -- and they’ll find uses for him. But if they offered him up in trade today, he’d be treated like a low 50 or a good 45, not as a surefire regular.
Tyler O’Neill, OF, Seattle Mariners
Age: 22 (6/11/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 210
Top level: Double-A
O’Neill is jacked, and that muscled-up frame generates the kind of power you’d expect from someone who looks like he spent a few offseasons watching “Body by Pronk.”
He’s also a fringy defender (with a good arm), strikes out a ton, and I think he’ll always be a bit of a power-over-hit guy -- which could still make him a solid everyday player, but probably not more than that, as if that forecast is correct it means he’ll hit .250-ish or less with low .300 OBPs and lots of homers. Nice player to have in your system, but not the cornerstone bat you need in a right fielder who doesn’t help you with the glove.
Matt Strahm, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Age: 25 (11/12/91) | B/T: R/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 185
Top level: MLB
Strahm was excellent as a short reliever for the Royals in the fall, with heat sitting at 93-94 mph and pitching almost exclusively off the fastball, but he could be a three-pitch starter, with a curveball that might be a better out pitch. Strahm was the Royals’ 21st-round pick in 2012 out of a Kansas junior college, blew out his elbow almost immediately, and missed almost two years. Even now, he has just 268 pro innings, and his season max is the 124 he threw last year.
He may touch 96 mph as a starter but will probably be more 90-93, with a plus curveball and an average changeup; he’s very tough on lefties but the changeup is good enough to make him a real three-pitch starter. He missed the top 100 because he just hasn’t pitched that much and because his ceiling may just not be high enough, but I do think the Royals should try to start him to maximize his value before returning him to the bullpen.
German Marquez, RHP, Colorado Rockies
Age: 21 (2/22/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 185
Top level: MLB
A sort of forgotten part of the trade between the Rockies and Rays last winter that included Jake McGee and Corey Dickerson, Marquez had a very strong age-21 season in Double-A (and for a team that had no home games all year), then got two quick promotions to Triple-A and the majors.
Marquez works heavily with a mid-90s fastball and a plus curveball, with a changeup that has improved but is not quite good enough to call him a certain starter (or put him on the top 100). It’s control rather than command right now, but there’s no delivery-related reason why he can’t eventually have average or better command, and he’s still relatively inexperienced, with just 512 pro innings since he debuted in the VSL at age 17.
He may lose eligibility before he ends up on a top 100, but ignoring that for the moment, it’s really the third pitch that’s keeping him from that status and from No. 3 starter projection.